After Week 4

Unbeaten
Temple
Memphis
Navy
Houston
Toledo

Once Beaten
Boise
Tulsa
Air Force
Western Ky
Marshall
Ohio
Georgia Southern
App State

Key Games this Week

Houston @ Tulsa
Air Force @ Navy

See below for latest update

I like Houston this year. Schedule sets up well for you. I think you host the AAC CCG.

G5 race IMO doesn't begin until we hit November.

Its too early to tell until all the non-conference games have been played. The AAC stil has some big ones left.

Also Boise was the G5 representative last year with 2 losses so you can't rule out anyone unless they have more than 2 losses at this point.

AAC is kickin butt so far. Nice job!

(09-27-2015 03:58 PM)Kittonhead Wrote:  G5 race IMO doesn't begin until we hit November.

Its too early to tell until all the non-conference games have been played. The AAC stil has some big ones left.

Also Boise was the G5 representative last year with 2 losses so you can't rule out anyone unless they have more than 2 losses at this point.

I wouldn't make much of that. Look at the situation. The MAC champ had 2 losses (one of which was a solid 34-17 beat down by a 8-5 MAC team, the other was 52-14 hammering by Arkansas).

The 3 AAC co-champs each had 3 to 4 losses. They were all out.

The Sunbelt Champ had 3 losses and was not even eligible for a bowl game due its transitional status. They were out.

The only other option was Marshall, who had one loss---but hadn't played anyone decent and had a loss to a team that was 4-4 in CUSA conference play. Worse yet, the Marshall loss came the last week of the regular season. On the other hand, the Boise losses were to a 10-3 Air Force and a ranked Ole Miss team---and both losses occurred early in the season. Boise had an opportunity to roll off 8 straight wins before the last selection committee meeting.

I wouldn't get caught up in Boise having some sort of special standing with the selection committee because they were chosen last year with 2 losses. The reality is the selection committee really didn't have any real alternative to Boise last year. If you put Memphis name on Boise's resume last year---Memphis would have been the choice.

(09-27-2015 04:41 PM)Attackcoog Wrote:  

(09-27-2015 03:58 PM)Kittonhead Wrote:  G5 race IMO doesn't begin until we hit November.

Its too early to tell until all the non-conference games have been played. The AAC stil has some big ones left.

Also Boise was the G5 representative last year with 2 losses so you can't rule out anyone unless they have more than 2 losses at this point.

I wouldn't make much of that. Look at the situation. The MAC champ had 2 losses (one of which was a solid 34-17 beat down by a 8-5 MAC team, the other was 52-14 hammering by Arkansas).

The 3 AAC co-champs each had 3 to 4 losses. They were all out.

The Sunbelt Champ had 3 losses and was not even eligible for a bowl game due its transitional status. They were out.

The only other option was Marshall, who had one loss---but hadn't played anyone decent and had a loss to a team that was 4-4 in CUSA conference play. Worse yet, the Marshall loss came the last week of the regular season. On the other hand, the Boise losses were to a 10-3 Air Force and a ranked Ole Miss team---and both losses occurred early in the season. Boise had an opportunity to roll off 8 straight wins before the last selection committee meeting.

I wouldn't get caught up in Boise having some sort of special standing with the selection committee because they were chosen last year with 2 losses. The reality is the selection committee really didn't have any real alternative to Boise last year. If you put Memphis name on Boise's resume last year---Memphis would have been the choice.

Agreed.

My point is that you have to take a look at not only the undefeated and 1 loss teams but also consider the two loss teams.

Two losses might be the threshold separating strong G5 champs to mediocre G5 champs.

(09-27-2015 04:41 PM)Attackcoog Wrote:  I wouldn't get caught up in Boise having some sort of special standing with the selection committee because they were chosen last year with 2 losses. The reality is the selection committee really didn't have any real alternative to Boise last year. If you put Memphis name on Boise's resume last year---Memphis would have been the choice.

Agreed.

I'll add the two loss teams after the October 31 games.

If a CUSA team doesn't get the spot (which is almost a certainty), I'd like to see Navy get it. Wasn't aware they were having such a good start to the season so far.

Northern Illinois could be the MAC winner again this year. They have the most impressive lost to Ohio State.

(09-28-2015 11:39 AM)DavidSt Wrote:  Northern Illinois could be the MAC winner again this year. They have the most impressive lost to Ohio State.

http://www.cbssports.com/collegefootball...-to-ascend

Still looks like the AAC is the frontrunner to me. Sunbelt is struggling this year as is the MWC. Boise could pull it out if they kick it into 5th gear but the AAC members have a lot of opportunities left to make a good impression. Toledo is a wild card in all this but if ita close the AAC champ will most likely be in Atlanta

(09-28-2015 10:28 AM)Niner National Wrote:  If a CUSA team doesn't get the spot (which is almost a certainty), I'd like to see Navy get it. Wasn't aware they were having such a good start to the season so far.

It's interesting how quickly we might see Navy's schedule come into play. Earlier this year, it was recognized that the Middies will still have to play Army after the selection committee makes their pick. They made a point of saying that they would select an AAC champ Navy if they were the highest ranked at the time the selections must be made. It will be controversial at best if they get selected as the G5 rep and then lose to Army in December.

The AAC west race is going to be a blast to follow. Some real quality teams there

(09-29-2015 11:20 AM)ken d Wrote:  

(09-28-2015 10:28 AM)Niner National Wrote:  If a CUSA team doesn't get the spot (which is almost a certainty), I'd like to see Navy get it. Wasn't aware they were having such a good start to the season so far.

It's interesting how quickly we might see Navy's schedule come into play. Earlier this year, it was recognized that the Middies will still have to play Army after the selection committee makes their pick. They made a point of saying that they would select an AAC champ Navy if they were the highest ranked at the time the selections must be made. It will be controversial at best if they get selected as the G5 rep and then lose to Army in December.

Navy plays at Memphis and at Houston ... would be a big surprise if they run the table in the AAC.

Quote:Still looks like the AAC is the frontrunner to me.

The problem with several good teams is that they can be beating each other up. Same goes for the MAC of course. AAC has a lot of undefeated teams, but that also means they'll be trading blows with each other. Boise of course -- if they got their QB on-point, look out. 1 loss to BYU but winning it all? You'd need an undefeated Toledo or AAC champ to take them out of the running. POSSIBLY a 1-loss AAC if that 1-loss is to ND.

2-2 ECU & Cinci aren't gong to let the other guys get away so freely. IMO, the AAC is going to be a slugfest.

With Memphis' lack of D, I don't see them going undefeated.
With Navy's style of O, I don't see them going undefeated (even if they were to beat ND).
I don't see Temple going unscathed, sorry. I see them maybe spoiling Memphis with their D and coming out with 9+ wins.
I see Houston with the best chance to go undefeated, but I don't see them going undefeated (Vanderbilt, Cinci, Memphis, Navy all at home tho) -- Temple in AACC.
I don't see Toledo going undefeated (@CMU, @BGSU, NIU, WMU + BGSU again in MACC; BGSU can beat ANY G5 in the country and over half P5s; good luck playing them twice)

In the end, nobody will be undefeated. Nobody's super-stellar. It'll come down to the best 1-loss team with a 2-loss team in consideration possibly. And remember -- only 1 team from a conference can be considered. All things change in conference championships. If 3-loss Temple wins it -- even if you say "Hey, was-undefeated Memphis is better than them but lost in the champ game," doesn't matter -- no consideration as non-champs for the BCS Bowl.

MAC Champ Possibilities:
Toledo: 12-0 (Beats WMU, NIU, @CMU, @BGSU + BGSU; Making BGSU 8-4)
BGSU: 11-2 (Beats @WMU, Toledo, Ohio + Toledo; Giving Toledo it's only 2 losses)
NIU: 11-2 (Beats WMU, @Toledo, Ohio, @CMU + BGSU in MACC)
Ohio: 11-2 (Loses to WMU or @NIU, but beats @BGSU + Toledo/NIU in MACC)

AAC Champ Possibilities:
Houston: 13-0 (Beats Vandy, Cinci, Memphis, Navy + Temple/ECU in AACC)
Memphis: 12-1 (Beats Navy, @Houston, @Temple, loses to Ole Miss, but beats Temple/ECU in AACC)
Temple: 11-2 (Beats @ECU, loses to ND + Memphis, but beats Memphis in AACC)
Navy: 11-2 (Beats @Memphis, @Houston, loses to Air Force+ND, but beats Temple/ECU in AACC)
ECU: 10-3 (Beats Temple, Cinci, Memphis in AACC, loses to BYU)

MOUNTAIN WEST Possibilities:
Boise State: 12-1 (Beats Hawaii, @CSU, @UtahSt, Air Force + beats Hawaii in MWC)
Air Force: 11-2 (Beats @BSU, @CSU, Utah State, loses to Navy + beats Hawaii in MWC)
Colorado State: 11-2
Utah State: 10-3
Hawaii: 10-3

Sun Belt:
App-State: 11-1 (Beats GA-Southern, Ark-St, Louisianna-Lafayette)
GA-Southern: 10-2 (Beats @App-State, Loses to Georgia)

(09-29-2015 11:20 AM)ken d Wrote:  

(09-28-2015 10:28 AM)Niner National Wrote:  If a CUSA team doesn't get the spot (which is almost a certainty), I'd like to see Navy get it. Wasn't aware they were having such a good start to the season so far.

It's interesting how quickly we might see Navy's schedule come into play. Earlier this year, it was recognized that the Middies will still have to play Army after the selection committee makes their pick. They made a point of saying that they would select an AAC champ Navy if they were the highest ranked at the time the selections must be made. It will be controversial at best if they get selected as the G5 rep and then lose to Army in December.

That's not correct. They have already announced that the committee would simply delay the selection one week if Navy is considered to be in contention for the G5 access slot. The Army-Navy game will occur prior to the any selection committee announcement naming Navy as a NYD access bowl participant.

After Week 5

Unbeaten
Temple
Memphis
Navy
Houston
Toledo

Once Beaten
Boise
Western Ky
Marshall
Ohio
Georgia Southern
App State

Key Game this Week
Navy @ Notre Dame

I'm not sure any league has more undefeated teams left than the American with four. Navy gets a big test at South Bend. Cincy had a big win vs Miami last week, becoming the fifth American school to notch a P5 win. No other G5 league has more than two members with P5 wins.

Toledo and Boise remain the biggest threats to the American. However, the Mountain West had another bad week last week, going 0-3 nonconference. Boise may develop a Marshall problem.

Further, ECU and Cincy get shots at BYU in Provo the next two weeks. If either pull the upset as a mid-level American team while Boise failed to beat BYU, it would be another comparison point in favor of the American vs. Boise.

Toledo looks like it has an easy road to the MAC title game. Every school in its division already has three losses.

With the MAC playing games midweek and with unpredictable weather can lend itself to some upsets.

Toledo looks like the best team in the MAC West but by no means are they unbeatable.

Bowling Green can put up more points than Toledo and almost beat Memphis. They may end up beating Toledo during the regular season and/or championship game.

(10-03-2015 09:33 PM)CougarRed Wrote:  After Week 5

Unbeaten
Temple
Memphis
Navy
Houston
Toledo

Once Beaten
Boise
Western Ky
Marshall
Ohio
Georgia Southern
App State

Key Game this Week
Navy @ Notre Dame

I'm not sure any league has more undefeated teams left than the American with four. Navy gets a big test at South Bend. Cincy had a big win vs Miami last week, becoming the fifth American school to notch a P5 win. No other G5 league has more than two members with P5 wins.

Toledo and Boise remain the biggest threats to the American. However, the Mountain West had another bad week last week, going 0-3 nonconference. Boise may develop a Marshall problem.

Further, ECU and Cincy get shots at BYU in Provo the next two weeks. If either pull the upset as a mid-level American team while Boise failed to beat BYU, it would be another comparison point in favor of the American vs. Boise.

Toledo looks like it has an easy road to the MAC title game. Every school in its division already has three losses.

What might help Boise State is that Washington goes to the PAC 12 Championship game, and Virginia knocks of wins against the top of the ACC schools.
Virginia's only tough opponents are Duke, Pittsburgh, Syracuse, Miami, Virginia Tech, North Carolina, Georgia Tech and Louisville not in order. If they win all the rest of the games? It will bring Boise State's stock up even more.