(09-26-2015 10:18 PM)stever20 Wrote:  

(09-26-2015 10:07 PM)Kittonhead Wrote:  

(09-26-2015 09:45 PM)stever20 Wrote:  

(09-26-2015 09:39 PM)Kittonhead Wrote:  

(09-26-2015 03:15 PM)stever20 Wrote:  Boise isn't close to the lead right now. One thing that really hurt them is what happened to BYU today.

Northern Illinois out now.

NIU is still in the conversation because they played the #1 within 7 points.

Boise State dropped 2 games to Air Force and Ole Miss last year so NIU isn't dead losing to Ohio State and Boston College by a combined 10 points.

NIU is just not in the conversation. They would need the AAC champ to have 2 losses, Boise to lose probably 2 more games. that's really unlikely. Realistically for the MAC it's Toledo or nothing.

The AAC champ has plenty of time to lose 2 more games Stever.

an awful lot of things quite frankly. Also, no lock at all that NIU would get in even at 11-2 over a 2 loss AAC champ. Lets say Memphis loses close to Ole Miss. That'll balance out a 7 point loss to Ohio St.

Playing in the AAC vs. MAC doesn't give you a built in edge.

Its more has to do with who you played and how you performed in a particular year. Who was on your AAC schedule or MAC schedule is more important than how the conference does overall.

(09-26-2015 10:39 PM)Kittonhead Wrote:  

(09-26-2015 10:18 PM)stever20 Wrote:  

(09-26-2015 10:07 PM)Kittonhead Wrote:  

(09-26-2015 09:45 PM)stever20 Wrote:  

(09-26-2015 09:39 PM)Kittonhead Wrote:  NIU is still in the conversation because they played the #1 within 7 points.

Boise State dropped 2 games to Air Force and Ole Miss last year so NIU isn't dead losing to Ohio State and Boston College by a combined 10 points.

NIU is just not in the conversation. They would need the AAC champ to have 2 losses, Boise to lose probably 2 more games. that's really unlikely. Realistically for the MAC it's Toledo or nothing.

The AAC champ has plenty of time to lose 2 more games Stever.

an awful lot of things quite frankly. Also, no lock at all that NIU would get in even at 11-2 over a 2 loss AAC champ. Lets say Memphis loses close to Ole Miss. That'll balance out a 7 point loss to Ohio St.

Playing in the AAC vs. MAC doesn't give you a built in edge.

Its more has to do with who you played and how you performed in a particular year. Who was on your AAC schedule or MAC schedule is more important than how the conference does overall.

exactly. and here's the thing. The AAC west has 3 undefeated teams right now. Navy, Houston(who has crossover vs Cincy), and Memphis(who has crossover vs Cincy already played, and Temple). If Memphis finishes 11-2, with wins over Cincy, Navy, Houston, and splitting with Temple- losing regular season, winning CCG)- Memphis is going to be a real tough team for NIU to beat. And if Memphis is 12-1- NIU has no shot.

here's the thing... remaining schedule-
Northern Illinois 14-17
Navy 19-12
Memphis 18-8
Houston 16-17
Temple 17-17

all 4 have tougher schedules left than NIU does.

As of this week, NIU is out of the convo for now. CMU on the road, Ball State, and (most likely ranked) Toledo on the road are going to be VERY tough games. Ohio and WMU won't be easy. Then if NIU survives it has to be a very good BGSU in the MACC. NIU needs to figure out their offense to keep their crown. MAC play is gonna be interesting.

Here's the MAC in OOC games decided by 7pts or less-

3-6 v P5
0-6 v G5

The MAC was frustratingly close to being really good this year.

(09-24-2015 09:46 PM)RustonCAT Wrote:  Toledo has been lucky so far..out gained by huge margins and somehow win..that ends on Saturday as they will not beable to out point Arkansas state

Scoreboard

Sent from my KFTHWI using Tapatalk

(09-26-2015 10:59 PM)perimeterpost Wrote:  Here's the MAC in OOC games decided by 7pts or less-

3-6 v P5
0-6 v G5

The MAC was frustratingly close to being really good this year.

wow, that's remarkable. Just couldn't quite close the deal. Meanwhile looking at the AAC-
vs P5 2-2
vs G5/Army 5-1

So MAC 3-12 in the close games overall, AAC 7-3

(09-26-2015 10:50 PM)stever20 Wrote:  here's the thing... remaining schedule-
Northern Illinois 14-17
Navy 19-12
Memphis 18-8
Houston 16-17
Temple 17-17

all 4 have tougher schedules left than NIU does.

That doesn't matter.

(09-26-2015 11:12 PM)stever20 Wrote:  

(09-26-2015 10:59 PM)perimeterpost Wrote:  Here's the MAC in OOC games decided by 7pts or less-

3-6 v P5
0-6 v G5

The MAC was frustratingly close to being really good this year.

wow, that's remarkable. Just couldn't quite close the deal. Meanwhile looking at the AAC-
vs P5 2-2
vs G5/Army 5-1

So MAC 3-12 in the close games overall, AAC 7-3

Sure, but those are against better competition and some of your best struggled with the MAC's worst. Not necessarily trying to argue w/ you. Wins are wins, good job AAC!

(09-26-2015 11:24 PM)Kittonhead Wrote:  

(09-26-2015 10:50 PM)stever20 Wrote:  here's the thing... remaining schedule-
Northern Illinois 14-17
Navy 19-12
Memphis 18-8
Houston 16-17
Temple 17-17

all 4 have tougher schedules left than NIU does.

That doesn't matter.

It sure as hell does.. You yourself said:Who was on your AAC schedule or MAC schedule is more important than how the conference does overall.

The fact is, if Memphis in particular is the one compared- their individual schedule is pretty damn good. and NIU's schedule isn't all that strong.

(09-26-2015 11:35 PM)stever20 Wrote:  

(09-26-2015 11:24 PM)Kittonhead Wrote:  

(09-26-2015 10:50 PM)stever20 Wrote:  here's the thing... remaining schedule-
Northern Illinois 14-17
Navy 19-12
Memphis 18-8
Houston 16-17
Temple 17-17

all 4 have tougher schedules left than NIU does.

That doesn't matter.

It sure as hell does.. You yourself said:Who was on your AAC schedule or MAC schedule is more important than how the conference does overall.

The fact is, if Memphis in particular is the one compared- their individual schedule is pretty damn good. and NIU's schedule isn't all that strong.

Depends how well Memphis plays against Ole Miss. NIU, doesn't look like it will come out of the MAC West unscathed. If NIU runs the table, they will get a nod. Same goes for Toledo. Keep in mind a two loss NIU last year was in the convo after Marshall's loss, if Fresno state pulled off the impossible rematch win against Boise.

Memphis would have a fewer loss.

Sorry- but when the best part of your schedule is a good loss- I don't think that gets you a whole hell of a lot. You beat a bad UNLV team by 8 points as your only OOC FBS win. Sorry- but that just isn't that good. Only Toledo and Ohio of your conference schedule has winning records.

and think about it- go back to the initial post....
1 Temple- dnp
2 Memphis- beat Cincy
3 Northern Illinois- lost BC
4 Houston- beat Texas St
5 Toledo- beat Arkansas St

right now NIU is at BEST case #5, and more likely at least #7- behind both Boise and Navy. NIU is going to need a lot to have really any shot at all.

(09-26-2015 11:57 PM)stever20 Wrote:  and think about it- go back to the initial post....
1 Temple- dnp
2 Memphis- beat Cincy
3 Northern Illinois- lost BC
4 Houston- beat Texas St
5 Toledo- beat Arkansas St

right now NIU is at BEST case #5, and more likely at least #7- behind both Boise and Navy. NIU is going to need a lot to have really any shot at all.

Like I said, I think NIU is out of the convo for now. You should be more concerned about Toledo. NIU has to survive CMU, Ball State, Toledo, Ohio, and BGSU in the MACC, all great teams that played very against better competition.

(09-26-2015 11:25 PM)HuskieAlumnus03 Wrote:  

(09-26-2015 11:12 PM)stever20 Wrote:  

(09-26-2015 10:59 PM)perimeterpost Wrote:  Here's the MAC in OOC games decided by 7pts or less-

3-6 v P5
0-6 v G5

The MAC was frustratingly close to being really good this year.

wow, that's remarkable. Just couldn't quite close the deal. Meanwhile looking at the AAC-
vs P5 2-2
vs G5/Army 5-1

So MAC 3-12 in the close games overall, AAC 7-3

Sure, but those are against better competition and some of your best struggled with the MAC's worst. Not necessarily trying to argue w/ you. Wins are wins, good job AAC!

The problem is look at how the 2 conferences go into conference play in OOC games..
MAC- 1 undefeated, 1 1 loss team, 6 2 loss teams. 5 3 loss teams.
AAC- 7 undefeated, 1 1 loss team, 2 2 loss teams, 1 3 loss team, 1 4 loss team.

much better for the AAC. That starts to roll up as you start playing each other.

(09-27-2015 12:11 AM)HuskieAlumnus03 Wrote:  

(09-26-2015 11:57 PM)stever20 Wrote:  and think about it- go back to the initial post....
1 Temple- dnp
2 Memphis- beat Cincy
3 Northern Illinois- lost BC
4 Houston- beat Texas St
5 Toledo- beat Arkansas St

right now NIU is at BEST case #5, and more likely at least #7- behind both Boise and Navy. NIU is going to need a lot to have really any shot at all.

Like I said, I think NIU is out of the convo for now. You should be more concerned about Toledo. NIU has to survive CMU, Ball State, Toledo, Ohio, and BGSU in the MACC, all great teams that played very against better competition.

With Toledo's schedule, they probably have to run the table to have any shot. Arkansas and Iowa St wins end of the year probably don't mean much at all(both will be lucky to finish with 4 wins). They have 5 games on the schedule left with teams with 3 losses.

Think it's very possible a 12-0 Toledo team gets passed up for a 1 loss AAC or Boise team. VERY possible.

(09-27-2015 12:15 AM)stever20 Wrote:  

(09-27-2015 12:11 AM)HuskieAlumnus03 Wrote:  

(09-26-2015 11:57 PM)stever20 Wrote:  and think about it- go back to the initial post....
1 Temple- dnp
2 Memphis- beat Cincy
3 Northern Illinois- lost BC
4 Houston- beat Texas St
5 Toledo- beat Arkansas St

right now NIU is at BEST case #5, and more likely at least #7- behind both Boise and Navy. NIU is going to need a lot to have really any shot at all.

Like I said, I think NIU is out of the convo for now. You should be more concerned about Toledo. NIU has to survive CMU, Ball State, Toledo, Ohio, and BGSU in the MACC, all great teams that played very against better competition.

With Toledo's schedule, they probably have to run the table to have any shot. Arkansas and Iowa St wins end of the year probably don't mean much at all(both will be lucky to finish with 4 wins). They have 5 games on the schedule left with teams with 3 losses.

Think it's very possible a 12-0 Toledo team gets passed up for a 1 loss AAC or Boise team. VERY possible.

No.

(09-26-2015 11:53 PM)stever20 Wrote:  Memphis would have a fewer loss.

Sorry- but when the best part of your schedule is a good loss- I don't think that gets you a whole hell of a lot.

It was fine for Boise State dropping a game to Ole Miss by 20 points last year.

The committee has said they will reward for scheduling so that is why all these P5 schools are scheduling up.

(09-27-2015 12:24 AM)HuskieAlumnus03 Wrote:  

(09-27-2015 12:15 AM)stever20 Wrote:  

(09-27-2015 12:11 AM)HuskieAlumnus03 Wrote:  

(09-26-2015 11:57 PM)stever20 Wrote:  and think about it- go back to the initial post....
1 Temple- dnp
2 Memphis- beat Cincy
3 Northern Illinois- lost BC
4 Houston- beat Texas St
5 Toledo- beat Arkansas St

right now NIU is at BEST case #5, and more likely at least #7- behind both Boise and Navy. NIU is going to need a lot to have really any shot at all.

Like I said, I think NIU is out of the convo for now. You should be more concerned about Toledo. NIU has to survive CMU, Ball State, Toledo, Ohio, and BGSU in the MACC, all great teams that played very against better competition.

With Toledo's schedule, they probably have to run the table to have any shot. Arkansas and Iowa St wins end of the year probably don't mean much at all(both will be lucky to finish with 4 wins). They have 5 games on the schedule left with teams with 3 losses.

Think it's very possible a 12-0 Toledo team gets passed up for a 1 loss AAC or Boise team. VERY possible.

No.

Sorry but what good wins would Toledo have again? Remember just being undefeated doesn't mean **** in this new era of the CFP committee. The MAC for as good as it's been is still 11-28 vs FBS teams this year. The AAC is 12-12.

(09-27-2015 12:28 AM)Kittonhead Wrote:  

(09-26-2015 11:53 PM)stever20 Wrote:  Memphis would have a fewer loss.

Sorry- but when the best part of your schedule is a good loss- I don't think that gets you a whole hell of a lot.

It was fine for Boise State dropping a game to Ole Miss by 20 points last year.

The committee has said they will reward for scheduling so that is why all these P5 schools are scheduling up.

A Big reason why Boise got the nod over NIU was that the MWC was 17-14 OOC vs FBS. the MAC was only 8-31.
MWC was the #1 G5 conference. MAC was #4.
Boise had 5 games against losing teams last year.
NIU had 6 games against losing team last year.
Boise had no FCS team, NIU did.
Boise SOS overall 66, NIU 120

Those are a lot more of the reasons why Boise got the spot than their loss to Ole Miss.