It started at 6 - 6.5 and is now at 3.
That is a good sign.
Vegas usually wins and betters usually lose.

(09-19-2015 09:33 AM)selleg1 Wrote:  It started at 6 - 6.5 and is now at 3.
That is a good sign.
Vegas usually wins and betters usually lose.

Vegas always wins. The only reason to have a line is to have equal numbers of bets on each team.

(09-19-2015 09:37 AM)mairving Wrote:  

(09-19-2015 09:33 AM)selleg1 Wrote:  It started at 6 - 6.5 and is now at 3.
That is a good sign.
Vegas usually wins and betters usually lose.

Vegas always wins. The only reason to have a line is to have equal numbers of bets on each team.

They definitly win more than 50% of bets placed.

(09-19-2015 09:52 AM)selleg1 Wrote:  

(09-19-2015 09:37 AM)mairving Wrote:  

(09-19-2015 09:33 AM)selleg1 Wrote:  It started at 6 - 6.5 and is now at 3.
That is a good sign.
Vegas usually wins and betters usually lose.

Vegas always wins. The only reason to have a line is to have equal numbers of bets on each team.

They definitly win more than 50% of bets placed.

You think so, I thought they made their money on the vig. Essentially they ideally want the same money on both sides

The oddsmakers were smart on this one. They set the line high on Memphis in order to drive a lot of early money on BG, Once the line drops to a pickem, they could count on money coming in on Memphis. I believe they got a little burned in the Memphis Kansas game.

(09-19-2015 09:52 AM)selleg1 Wrote:  

(09-19-2015 09:37 AM)mairving Wrote:  

(09-19-2015 09:33 AM)selleg1 Wrote:  It started at 6 - 6.5 and is now at 3.
That is a good sign.
Vegas usually wins and betters usually lose.

Vegas always wins. The only reason to have a line is to have equal numbers of bets on each team.

They definitly win more than 50% of bets placed.

You're not betting against "Vegas". You're betting against other yahoos. "Vegas" is simply handling the transaction and taking their commission.

Well, ideally that's the case. There is almost always an imbalance in the amount bet on one of the teams. As Mairving said, the line, or points allowance, is the mechanism for trying to tempt enough people to bet on the other team so that the money is even and Vegas doesn't have to make up the imbalance. They do get burned sometimes. After the opening line is set and betting begins, it is the bettors' actions which determine how the line moves. In our and BG's case, most of the bettors will be fans, so it is yahoos like the posters on here.

People who understand math and statistics successfully and profitably exploiting others.

The O/U went from 79 to 73. What's up with that?

(09-19-2015 12:51 PM)Dynamos Wrote:  The O/U went from 79 to 73. What's up with that?

bad weather maybe. Supposed to rain today...field is already soaked

(09-19-2015 01:18 PM)EarthBoundMisfit Wrote:  

(09-19-2015 12:51 PM)Dynamos Wrote:  The O/U went from 79 to 73. What's up with that?

bad weather maybe. Supposed to rain today...field is already soaked

I saw Brooks retweet someone at the stadium and it was pouring this morning. Favors running instead of passing, that will always drop an o/u

(09-19-2015 10:01 AM)macgar32 Wrote:  

(09-19-2015 09:52 AM)selleg1 Wrote:  

(09-19-2015 09:37 AM)mairving Wrote:  

(09-19-2015 09:33 AM)selleg1 Wrote:  It started at 6 - 6.5 and is now at 3.
That is a good sign.
Vegas usually wins and betters usually lose.

Vegas always wins. The only reason to have a line is to have equal numbers of bets on each team.

They definitly win more than 50% of bets placed.

You think so, I thought they made their money on the vig. Essentially they ideally want the same money on both sides

That used to be the case, but apparently not anymore. At some point in time the sportsbooks decided to tweak their business model and employee a "favorite" bias in which they would get the money coming in on the favorite to bet on a cover line that the statistical models said was not likely to be covered.

Last year on the opening day for the NFL they made a killing.

This year they took it in the azz on opening day. This year the favorites, who had a large percentage of money bet on them, covered the spread by 9-4. For instance, the William Hill book had 80% of the money come in for the packers to cover. The packers covered. That was a huge blow to William Hill.