This got brought up in a troll-thread on the "Main" conference board. But I think it's worth bringing up here.

I am NOT looking to start a "fire" thread, nor am I trying to do yet another "How many games do we win?" thread.

The statement was made "What's the matter with 9-3?" Many teams would consider a 9-3 season quite a success. Likewise, many have said "You have to have a reasonable/appropriate bench-mark for what would make a season a 'success' or not."

So...
Generally speaking what would be an appropriate level of success for Bearcat fans to hope for? There was a long time, just having a winning season and getting to a bowl would have been considered a "success." Is there a "minimum" expectation by which we, as Bearcat fans, can look at a season and go, "Yeah, that was a successful season" even if we are not in the FB Championship Playoff or whatever?

(09-18-2015 12:27 PM)BearcatJerry Wrote:  This got brought up in a troll-thread on the "Main" conference board. But I think it's worth bringing up here.

I am NOT looking to start a "fire" thread, nor am I trying to do yet another "How many games do we win?" thread.

The statement was made "What's the matter with 9-3?" Many teams would consider a 9-3 season quite a success. Likewise, many have said "You have to have a reasonable/appropriate bench-mark for what would make a season a 'success' or not."

So...
Generally speaking what would be an appropriate level of success for Bearcat fans to hope for? There was a long time, just having a winning season and getting to a bowl would have been considered a "success." Is there a "minimum" expectation by which we, as Bearcat fans, can look at a season and go, "Yeah, that was a successful season" even if we are not in the FB Championship Playoff or whatever?

I will give my answer: Given our history, I am just glad we have a FB team. My support does not depend on whether we win or not, so for my own sanity I am going to just sit back and enjoy the season. A bowl would be nice, but hey... every game is a gift. Wins are gravy.

I think, given the circumstances, it's reasonable to expect 10 win seasons every year. With the money we have invested in our programs, that should be a good threshold to hold ourselves to. If that fluctuates between 8 and 12 wins depending on the year, I think thats exactly where you want to be as a program. That, at the least, will keep us relevant.

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In this environment, 8-9 wins is expected.... more is a great season.... less is a disappointment

My answer is that I want us to be competitive in every game and be in the hunt for a conference title every year. I think there is heightened scrutiny (and I feel it myself so maybe I'm projecting onto others) around the fact that we are in a lower tier conference and are fighting to get out. In this conference, 9-3 might get you a date to a 4th tier bowl game against a SunBelt conference team. 9-3 in the Big 10 can get you a Capital One Bowl berth against a top 10 team. For me, I just want us to not get blown out ever and to be in with at least a chance to win the conference at the end of the season.

The level of success each year will change depending on a number of things.
1. Graduation rate of starters on Offense and Defense
2. Injuries & health issues
3. Academic issues
4. Off the field issues
5. Weather issues
6. How many Freshmen are starters
7. Recruiting
8. Turn overs in a season etc.:
There are lot's of variables in college and Pro sports that can make a season and ruin a season. Hope and expectations are based on dreams, but they can't control the variables. Will you be alive tomorrow? Well, you Hope to and expect to, but you might get hit by a Car, Train or Bus and not make it. The Hills and Valley's of life are real.

(09-18-2015 01:02 PM)Racinejake Wrote:  My answer is that I want us to be competitive in every game and be in the hunt for a conference title every year. I think there is heightened scrutiny (and I feel it myself so maybe I'm projecting onto others) around the fact that we are in a lower tier conference and are fighting to get out. In this conference, 9-3 might get you a date to a 4th tier bowl game against a SunBelt conference team. 9-3 in the Big 10 can get you a Capital One Bowl berth against a top 10 team. For me, I just want us to not get blown out ever and to be in with at least a chance to win the conference at the end of the season.

I think this is fair.

The answer is very dependent on circumstances. Mopper masterfully stated the issues with recruiting and we are in year 3 of the TT era; I believe this program continues to get better. The program has suffered from a cycle of '3 and out' coaches... Dantonio, Kelly, and Lyle... that hurts recruiting and perception.

I also think the AAC at the top despite not being P5 and shat on by sports media is tough and competitive. The program will never just 'roll through' this league IMO.

(09-18-2015 01:13 PM)MrP3242 Wrote:  The level of success each year will change depending on a number of things.
1. Graduation rate of starters on Offense and Defense
2. Injuries & health issues
3. Academic issues
4. Off the field issues
5. Weather issues
6. How many Freshmen are starters
7. Recruiting
8. Turn overs in a season etc.:
There are lot's of variables in college and Pro sports that can make a season and ruin a season. Hope and expectations are based on dreams, but they can't control the variables. Will you be alive tomorrow? Well, you Hope to and expect to, but you might get hit by a Car, Train or Bus and not make it. The Hills and Valley's of life are real.

So we'll put you down for 10 wins a season?

(09-18-2015 01:15 PM)bearcatmark Wrote:  

(09-18-2015 01:13 PM)MrP3242 Wrote:  The level of success each year will change depending on a number of things.
1. Graduation rate of starters on Offense and Defense
2. Injuries & health issues
3. Academic issues
4. Off the field issues
5. Weather issues
6. How many Freshmen are starters
7. Recruiting
8. Turn overs in a season etc.:
There are lot's of variables in college and Pro sports that can make a season and ruin a season. Hope and expectations are based on dreams, but they can't control the variables. Will you be alive tomorrow? Well, you Hope to and expect to, but you might get hit by a Car, Train or Bus and not make it. The Hills and Valley's of life are real.

So we'll put you down for 10 wins a season?

Sometimes yes to 10 wins or more and sometimes No. Maybe 6 wins or less.

Depends on the schedule. This year
@Memphis, as good if not better than last year
@Houston, they looked better than Clemson did while beating Ville on the road
@BYU, always tough
@ECU, As good as last year probably.
@USF, they could have switched unis with FSU hard to tell who was who (Gholson & Cook were the difference)
Hurricanes @Nippert, they always have lots of talent.

Road schedule is difficult but I think the D will be better this year, and barring a TO fest, we will score.

(09-18-2015 12:27 PM)BearcatJerry Wrote:  This got brought up in a troll-thread on the "Main" conference board. But I think it's worth bringing up here.

I am NOT looking to start a "fire" thread, nor am I trying to do yet another "How many games do we win?" thread.

The statement was made "What's the matter with 9-3?" Many teams would consider a 9-3 season quite a success. Likewise, many have said "You have to have a reasonable/appropriate bench-mark for what would make a season a 'success' or not."

So...
Generally speaking what would be an appropriate level of success for Bearcat fans to hope for? There was a long time, just having a winning season and getting to a bowl would have been considered a "success." Is there a "minimum" expectation by which we, as Bearcat fans, can look at a season and go, "Yeah, that was a successful season" even if we are not in the FB Championship Playoff or whatever?

Baby steps. Let's start with finally throttling an overmatched Miami squad this weekend.

(09-18-2015 01:27 PM)SuperFlyBCat Wrote:  Depends on the schedule. This year
@Memphis, as good if not better than last year
@Houston, they looked better than Clemson did while beating Ville on the road
@BYU, always tough
@ECU, As good as last year probably.
@USF, they could have switched unis with FSU hard to tell who was who (Gholson & Cook were the difference)
Hurricanes @Nippert, they always have lots of talent.

Road schedule is difficult but I think the D will be better this year, and barring a TO fest, we will score.

I agree that all of those teams sans ECU are better, but are we not supposed to be much better this year as well? With the returnees on offense were we not led to believe all we needed was a D with a pulse to be light years better than last year?

It does vary from year to year based on schedule and roster, but I expect somewhere around 10 wins and cracking into the 25 rankings

The reasonable expectations are no different than they were the day before the Temple debacle. No excuses.

(09-18-2015 01:52 PM)rtaylor Wrote:  

(09-18-2015 01:27 PM)SuperFlyBCat Wrote:  Depends on the schedule. This year
@Memphis, as good if not better than last year
@Houston, they looked better than Clemson did while beating Ville on the road
@BYU, always tough
@ECU, As good as last year probably.
@USF, they could have switched unis with FSU hard to tell who was who (Gholson & Cook were the difference)
Hurricanes @Nippert, they always have lots of talent.

Road schedule is difficult but I think the D will be better this year, and barring a TO fest, we will score.

I agree that all of those teams sans ECU are better, but are we not supposed to be much better this year as well? With the returnees on offense were we not led to believe all we needed was a D with a pulse to be light years better than last year?

Pretty much what I said. Our D might be much better. Hope so. Sucks losing CC at LB.

(09-18-2015 01:59 PM)rath v2.0 Wrote:  The reasonable expectations are no different than they were the day before the Temple debacle. No excuses.

9-3 got Earl Bruce fired at Ohio State. Of course, the demands and resources are far greater at the school up north. Earl would win most of the games he should and more often then not beat their rival Michigan. The problem with Tubs is he loses the occasional game he should win, and has not won a game he shouldn't. Have we won as an underdog?

(09-18-2015 01:13 PM)MrP3242 Wrote:  5. Weather issues

Wut?

(09-18-2015 02:23 PM)rosewater Wrote:  

(09-18-2015 01:59 PM)rath v2.0 Wrote:  The reasonable expectations are no different than they were the day before the Temple debacle. No excuses.

9-3 got Earl Bruce fired at Ohio State. Of course, the demands and resources are far greater at the school up north. Earl would win most of the games he should and more often then not beat their rival Michigan. The problem with Tubs is he loses the occasional game he should win, and has not won a game he shouldn't. Have we won as an underdog?

Guessing just @Rutgers 2013

(09-18-2015 02:48 PM)uccheese Wrote:  

(09-18-2015 02:23 PM)rosewater Wrote:  

(09-18-2015 01:59 PM)rath v2.0 Wrote:  The reasonable expectations are no different than they were the day before the Temple debacle. No excuses.

9-3 got Earl Bruce fired at Ohio State. Of course, the demands and resources are far greater at the school up north. Earl would win most of the games he should and more often then not beat their rival Michigan. The problem with Tubs is he loses the occasional game he should win, and has not won a game he shouldn't. Have we won as an underdog?

Guessing just @Rutgers 2013

Point Spread: ECU -2/CIN +2
Over/Under Total: 68.5
http://www.predictem.com/cfb/east-caroli...i-pick.php

The litmus test should be 10 wins and in the mix for the conference championship every year in the AAC. We are no longer the first time entrants into the Big East stepping out from CUSA but are now an established program and brand. Success breeds higher expectations, naturally. 8-4 to 9-3 works in the P5 for success but not in the AAC that still features an abysmal bottom half of teams. If 10 wins and conference championships are not the appropriate goal right now then the university should have sunk more money into the basketball program and paid less for a head football coach. The only way my opinion changes is if, gulp, we're stuck in the American for the foreseeable future and the conference's overall quality and competitiveness rises. Right now, I don't know if the rest of the college football world sees much difference between the AAC, Mountain West and MAC. I don't disagree with that view either (as it now stands).