The black and white answer is yes it does but scheduling also plays a role. On the other hand those teams down at the bottom haven't looked great...even in losing

This is, of course, assuming by not going with the experience player, the coach chooses to go with a more talented player...

Looking at it within a vacuum, yes, experience matters over being simply talent. Talent may keep you in some ball games, but experience tends to lead to winning said games. Of course, this is providing that those experience players having some talent on their own accord.

However, no one team is singularly dynamic. Most teams should have a good mixture of both, even if not possessing both in totality. You hear a lot of coaches say that they will take an experience player over a talented player all the time. I tend to agree; but fans tend to cheer for the talented player because of the big play potential that a talented has. However, talented players without enough in-game experience tends to make a lot of mistakes and they seem to make them at the most importuned time.

This is why most coaches go with the most experience guy over the simply talented guy, even if the play isn't as dynamic; they know that "I should should just lower my head down and get these tough two yards for the first down instead of trying to bounce it outside and get stop for a potential loss...or, carry the ball in the arm closest to the sideline vs toting it like a loaf of bread in the opposite arm where if the ball is punched-out, it will likely remain in the field-of-play for a free-for-all".

Or even a receiver knowing he needs to push a little further to get beyond the first down marker to make an all important catch vs breaking off his route because he can get open sooner; or, a corner recognizing a formation, knowing that he is guarding against the best receiver and he is likely going to attempt to run me deep and the offense drags the opposite receiver across into his zone for...but the corner knows he has top cover help from the safety and he doesn't vacate his zone, comes up to make a big play on the pass catcher stopping him for a crucial fourth down.

This is where experience trumps simply being talented...ideally, you will won't both...

I said all of this just to say, your record for Rice is wrong...they are 1-1.