Would a one loss Michigan State make the CFP over a two loss conference champion?

As we already discussed in the thread about this.....it's possible. Now, how about you join us in the thread about this hmm?

(09-15-2015 08:02 AM)Hokie4Skins Wrote:  Would a one loss Michigan State make the CFP over a two loss conference champion?

If that 2 loss champion is Oregon, then yes. Otherwise, it remains to be seen.

Making definitive statements like this after just 2 games is kind of silly. But we persist in doing it.

I would think the loser of the MSU/OSU game is in the playoffs if the following happens

1) the loser of the MSU/OSU game goes 11-1
2) the winner of the MSU/OSU game goes 13-0
3) there aren't 4 teams from the p5 that are 13-0.

(09-15-2015 09:54 AM)bitcruncher Wrote:  

(09-15-2015 08:02 AM)Hokie4Skins Wrote:  Would a one loss Michigan State make the CFP over a two loss conference champion?

If that 2 loss champion is Oregon, then yes. Otherwise, it remains to be seen.

Making definitive statements like this after just 2 games is kind of silly. But we persist in doing it.

It's true. There are always many more upsets than people assume. If every team that was supposed to be good enough to win every game in which they are favored actually did, then Saban would have something like 8 national titles at Alabama and Carroll would have had 5 or 6 at USC.

(09-15-2015 08:02 AM)Hokie4Skins Wrote:  Would a one loss Michigan State make the CFP over a two loss conference champion?

depends on the losses of the conference champ, and if Mich St.'s only loss was Ohio State...

Quote:Would a one loss Michigan State make the CFP over a two loss conference champion?

If it's a Narrow defeat to an undefeated Ohio State who wins & expresses dominance in all their other games, while MSU wins & expresses dominance in all the rest of their games -- possibly.

It's much the same as predicting rankings. By default, what to expect in the Top 4-team-playoff:

4 Top P5 Champs
1 least-power P5 Champ left out

To go from that to:
3 Top P5 Champs
1 2nd-place P5 team better than 2 other P5 Champs

... would require 2 other conference champs (ACC & P12/B12) to have 2 losses or 1 total-goose-egg (losing to a G5), but still win their conference and beat the contending team in their conference. Bad OOC losses could do that... like, say, Clemson losing to a G5 or Oregon winning the P12 at 11-2, but MSU at 11-1 having beaten them.

Yes, could happen. Don't count on it until you see other conferences beating up on each other from top-bottom.

(09-15-2015 08:03 AM)He1nousOne Wrote:  As we already discussed in the thread about this.....it's possible. Now, how about you join us in the thread about this hmm?

Agreed.

I'd say they'd have a really good shot, and I don't like them at all.
Who's beat them these past few years other then Oregon and Ohio St? (who they've also beaten themselves)


(I guess Notre Dame but that was when Michigan St was just starting to get REALLY GOOD)

If the pac-12 champ ends up being Oregon, and MSU ends up with 1 loss only to BigTen champ OSU, it would be hard to pick Oregon over MSU.

Quote:If the pac-12 champ ends up being Oregon, and MSU ends up with 1 loss only to BigTen champ OSU, it would be hard to pick Oregon over MSU.

MSU would get it, hands down, if MSU looked/performed as good as being the team that beat a 12-1 Oregon and lost narrowly to a 13-0 Ohio State.

However, if, say, a 12-1 USC got it won the P12 -- they'd pick USC, even if they knew MSU was probably slightly better. Conf champs will break the tie. One team already beating the other is the only thing that will break that "about the same" marker above that.

(09-15-2015 09:54 AM)bitcruncher Wrote:  

(09-15-2015 08:02 AM)Hokie4Skins Wrote:  Would a one loss Michigan State make the CFP over a two loss conference champion?

If that 2 loss champion is Oregon, then yes. Otherwise, it remains to be seen.

Making definitive statements like this after just 2 games is kind of silly. But we persist in doing it.

Exactly - we drive ourselves crazy with all of these potential scenarios. Sports are inherently unpredictable, which is part of the reason why we like watching them in the first place.

Note that after the Michigan St. - Oregon game last year, the national media was almost unanimous in stating that the Big Ten wouldn't get a team into the 4-team playoff. We all know how that turned out. Predictions at this point of the season are generally worthless.

(09-16-2015 12:59 PM)Frank the Tank Wrote:  

(09-15-2015 09:54 AM)bitcruncher Wrote:  

(09-15-2015 08:02 AM)Hokie4Skins Wrote:  Would a one loss Michigan State make the CFP over a two loss conference champion?

If that 2 loss champion is Oregon, then yes. Otherwise, it remains to be seen.

Making definitive statements like this after just 2 games is kind of silly. But we persist in doing it.

Exactly - we drive ourselves crazy with all of these potential scenarios. Sports are inherently unpredictable, which is part of the reason why we like watching them in the first place.

Note that after the Michigan St. - Oregon game last year, the national media was almost unanimous in stating that the Big Ten wouldn't get a team into the 4-team playoff. We all know how that turned out. Predictions at this point of the season are generally worthless.

No, it's not worthless, stop pandering to the illogical and irrational thinkers. For anyone that can keep centered and rational, it is all interesting to talk to because it is POSSIBLE. The problem is that the irrational minds jump to illogical conclusions and then projection those conclusions upon other people whom were never making such an assertion in the first place.

It is fun to discuss how last year at this point it looked like, as you say, that The Big Ten's outlook in the post season was looking very bleak yet this year at the same point it is looking just the opposite. That makes for great discussion and great talking points for media writers, which is why so many sports writers are picking up on this.

Hell, in the local news here, every single one of the writers has Ohio State and Michigan State in their top four projected to actually make the CFP. This is in the heart of PAC country with a bunch of writers that think the PAC South could cannibalize itself. They aren't calling upon that to happen to the SEC. Every single one of them thought Alabama would make it through. Who knows what will happen, I just illustrate that to show just how irrational and illogical some people are being when they react so emotionally to the idea of The Big Ten possibly getting in two teams.

It isn't illogical or irrational to come to the conclusion that it is possible for it to happen when there are two teams that have distanced themselves so greatly within the Big Ten at this time. The ACC cannot claim the same situation because Georgia Tech is in a different division than Clemson and Florida State so likely their Championship Game does what it is supposed to do.

What I see happening, if The Big Ten actually does get two teams in, is that the rest of the Power Conferences come together to push forward new divisional rules that allow for no divisions if we havnt had our final realignment yet. We aren't going to see new divisional rules for having more divisions and a conference tournament until more realignment and expansion has happened.

So technically speaking, it actually doesn't benefit The Big Ten in the long run to get both Ohio State and Michigan State into the CFP. In the bigger picture, it could backfire against The Big Ten big time.

Best Solution: 12-Team-Playoff.

(4) Top 4 P5 Conf Winners get a Bye (making conf champ games Important)

1st Round of 8:
(1) Last P5 Conf Winner
(4) Top 4 P5 Div Winners/Non-Conf Winners Of EACH P5 Conf (making divisional winners Important over 2nd place within a division)
(1) Top G5 Conf Winner
(2) At-Large Remaining (Top 2 By Rank; Teams From Other Conf Trumps 4th P5 team of same-conference to-be-added, if within 2 spots)

-------------
2014:
-------------

1st Round BYE: (1) Alabama, (2) Oregon, (3) Florida State, (4) Ohio State

(8) Mich State (AT-LARGE #8)
(9) Arizona (Top 4 P5 Non-Conf/Div-Winner)
WINNER FACES: (1) Alabama

(5) Baylor (Last P5 Conf Winner)
(12) Boise State (Top G5 Conf-Winner)
WINNER FACES: (4) Ohio State

(7) Miss State (AT-LARGE #7)
(10) GA-Tech (Top 4 P5 Non-Conf/Div-Winner)
WINNER FACES: (2) Oregon

(6) TCU (Top 4 P5 Non-Conf/Div-Winner)
(11) Missouri (Top 4 P5 Non-Conf/Div-Winner)
WINNER FACES: (3) Florida State


LEFT OUT IN TOP 12:
- #9 Ole Miss (Reason: 3rd in their division; Couldn't get Top 4 P5 Div-Winner Auto-Bid; #7 Miss State & #8 MSU Ranked higher for At-Large)
- #11 Kansas State (Reason: TCU & Baylor Ranked Above them in B12; MSU & Miss State above them in At-Larges)

(09-16-2015 05:35 PM)He1nousOne Wrote:  =

(09-16-2015 12:59 PM)Frank the Tank Wrote:  

(09-15-2015 09:54 AM)bitcruncher Wrote:  

(09-15-2015 08:02 AM)Hokie4Skins Wrote:  Would a one loss Michigan State make the CFP over a two loss conference champion?

If that 2 loss champion is Oregon, then yes. Otherwise, it remains to be seen.

Making definitive statements like this after just 2 games is kind of silly. But we persist in doing it.

Exactly - we drive ourselves crazy with all of these potential scenarios. Sports are inherently unpredictable, which is part of the reason why we like watching them in the first place.

Note that after the Michigan St. - Oregon game last year, the national media was almost unanimous in stating that the Big Ten wouldn't get a team into the 4-team playoff. We all know how that turned out. Predictions at this point of the season are generally worthless.

No, it's not worthless, stop pandering to the illogical and irrational thinkers. For anyone that can keep centered and rational, it is all interesting to talk to because it is POSSIBLE. The problem is that the irrational minds jump to illogical conclusions and then projection those conclusions upon other people whom were never making such an assertion in the first place.

It is fun to discuss how last year at this point it looked like, as you say, that The Big Ten's outlook in the post season was looking very bleak yet this year at the same point it is looking just the opposite. That makes for great discussion and great talking points for media writers, which is why so many sports writers are picking up on this.

Hell, in the local news here, every single one of the writers has Ohio State and Michigan State in their top four projected to actually make the CFP. This is in the heart of PAC country with a bunch of writers that think the PAC South could cannibalize itself. They aren't calling upon that to happen to the SEC. Every single one of them thought Alabama would make it through. Who knows what will happen, I just illustrate that to show just how irrational and illogical some people are being when they react so emotionally to the idea of The Big Ten possibly getting in two teams.

It isn't illogical or irrational to come to the conclusion that it is possible for it to happen when there are two teams that have distanced themselves so greatly within the Big Ten at this time. The ACC cannot claim the same situation because Georgia Tech is in a different division than Clemson and Florida State so likely their Championship Game does what it is supposed to do.

What I see happening, if The Big Ten actually does get two teams in, is that the rest of the Power Conferences come together to push forward new divisional rules that allow for no divisions if we havnt had our final realignment yet. We aren't going to see new divisional rules for having more divisions and a conference tournament until more realignment and expansion has happened.

So technically speaking, it actually doesn't benefit The Big Ten in the long run to get both Ohio State and Michigan State into the CFP. In the bigger picture, it could backfire against The Big Ten big time.

NOBODY here wants to talk about the POSSIBLE. Fully half of the conversations around here tend to be centered upon the IMPOSSIBLE, since they match the dreams and wishes of most here.

Take a look through the ARCHIVES, if you think I'm wrong.