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2015 Football Performance Ratings
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KTOWL Offline
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Post: #41
RE: 2015 Football Performance Ratings
(11-26-2015 03:49 PM)Jonathan Sadow Wrote:  Rice's 34-24 loss to Texas-San Antonio, the Owls' first loss to the Roadrunners in four meetings, earned a Massey performance rating of 27.15. That's the fourth sub-30 point performance of the season, which equals the total number of such games in the previous three seasons, and the most in one season since 2010. Here are the ratings for the Owls' games so far this season:

Wagner: 39.70
@Texas: 46.69
@North Texas: 40.77
@Baylor: 25.18
Western Kentucky: 14.07
@Florida Atlantic: 39.92
Army: 37.94
Louisiana Tech: 22.36
@UTEP: 30.24
Southern Mississippi: -9.71
@UTSA: 27.15

Here are the performance ratings for Conference USA teams this season:
School, Median, Mean, Standard Deviation
Louisiana Tech 56.31 52.84 11.06
Western Kentucky 53.37 60.67 15.83
Southern Mississippi 50.50 52.07 14.74
Middle Tennessee 47.60 47.55 14.38
Marshall 46.30 51.12 13.22
Florida International 37.02 37.80 19.82
Florida Atlantic 34.11 36.53 11.31
Texas-El Paso 30.83 26.11 13.87
Rice 30.24 28.57 15.96
Texas-San Antonio 29.99 32.97 11.78
Old Dominion 28.09 25.75 12.14
North Texas 22.70 20.79 18.46
Charlotte 22.44 22.00 15.33

Here are a few observations based on these data:
  • The schedule set things up rather nicely for deciding the divisional titles. Western Kentucky hosts Marshall for the East Division title, and Louisiana Tech hosts Southern Miss for the West Division title.
  • Middle Tennessee punched its bowl-game ticket by beating North Texas to move to 6-5 on the season. After last weekends results, the only other team that can reach six wins in the regular season now is Old Dominion, and it has to defeat Florida Atlantic in the season finale to do that. If the Monarchs fail to beat the Owls, C-USA won't fill all of its bowl slots.
  • When Florida International beat Charlotte two weeks ago, the Golden Panthers had evened their record at 5-5. A win against either Marshall or Western Kentucky would've made FIU bowl eligible. Instead, the Golden Panthers didn't come close, losing their final two games by a combined total of 108 points to finish the year at 5-7.

Rice closes its season against Charlotte this weekend. The 49ers' travails this season make the Owls' problems look insignificant. While Rice is mired in a four-game losing streak, Charlotte has dropped nine in a row following wins in its first two games. The 49ers just broke the 40-point performance rating mark in those two games; since then, they haven't done better than the 29.02 they recorded in a three-point loss to Old Dominion. Aside from a three-point loss to UTSA, every other game in the losing streak has been by a double-digit margin. With Charlotte doing so poorly, even with Rice's troubles of late the Owls look to be a solid pick to win this one.

Great job as always. Depressing but not your fault, you just state the facts.

Can you email them to Joe Karlgaard, he might need them when he sits down with Bailiff and he starts to hear the excuses.
11-27-2015 10:28 PM
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Jonathan Sadow Offline
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Post: #42
RE: 2015 Football Performance Ratings
Rice's 27-7 win in the season finale against Charlotte produced a Massey performance rating of 37.96. This matched every other win that the Owls produced this season in that all of their performance ratings fell within a range of 37 to 39. Most of the other games were lower than that (and of course Rice lost them). It's the first season since 2011 that the Owls didn't even have one game in the 50s, and the first season since 2009 to have a game with a negative performance rating. Here are the ratings for the Owls' games so far this season:

Wagner: 38.93
@Texas: 46.59
@North Texas: 38.21
@Baylor: 17.21
Western Kentucky: 15.72
@Florida Atlantic: 38.11
Army: 38.71
Louisiana Tech: 17.79
@UTEP: 27.97
Southern Mississippi: -9.10
@UTSA: 23.05
Charlotte: 37.96

Here are the performance ratings for Conference USA teams this season:
School, Median, Mean, Standard Deviation
Western Kentucky 55.47 60.07 14.85
Louisiana Tech 53.74 48.05 16.12
Middle Tennessee 49.35 47.80 15.21
Southern Mississippi 49.11 52.61 17.32
Marshall 44.19 48.72 13.29
Florida International 35.17 32.94 19.37
Florida Atlantic 33.32 34.92 10.82
Rice 32.96 27.64 15.51
Old Dominion 29.50 24.91 11.45
Texas-El Paso 29.14 24.62 13.23
Texas-San Antonio 28.62 28.82 13.39
Charlotte 20.49 19.40 15.17
North Texas 20.36 19.13 18.11

Here are a few observations based on these data:
  • Western Kentucky defeated Southern Miss in the C-USA championship game, and by the numbers appears to be a well-deserving champion.
  • Florida International, Old Dominion, Rice, and UTEP all finished 5-7 and missed bowl bids. Due to the abundance of bowl games, 5-7 teams were considered for bids, but Rice missed getting one by two APR points. Western Kentucky, Southern Miss, Louisiana Tech, Middle Tennessee, and Marshall got the conference's bowl slots.
  • With the loss to Rice, Charlotte ended the season on a ten-game losing streak after having defeated Georgia State (which surprisingly earned a bowl bid this season) and FCS member Presbyterian to start the season 2-0. North Texas finished 1-11 but did manage to beat UTSA in a conference game.

After the bowl games have been played, I'll post a final season summary.
12-15-2015 03:08 PM
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SaintsOwl Offline
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Post: #43
2015 Football Performance Ratings
(12-15-2015 03:08 PM)Jonathan Sadow Wrote:  Rice's 27-7 win in the season finale against Charlotte produced a Massey performance rating of 37.96. This matched every other win that the Owls produced this season in that all of their performance ratings fell within a range of 37 to 39. Most of the other games were lower than that (and of course Rice lost them). It's the first season since 2011 that the Owls didn't even have one game in the 50s, and the first season since 2009 to have a game with a negative performance rating. Here are the ratings for the Owls' games so far this season:

Wagner: 38.93
@Texas: 46.59
@North Texas: 38.21
@Baylor: 17.21
Western Kentucky: 15.72
@Florida Atlantic: 38.11
Army: 38.71
Louisiana Tech: 17.79
@UTEP: 27.97
Southern Mississippi: -9.10
@UTSA: 23.05
Charlotte: 37.96

Here are the performance ratings for Conference USA teams this season:
School, Median, Mean, Standard Deviation
Western Kentucky 55.47 60.07 14.85
Louisiana Tech 53.74 48.05 16.12
Middle Tennessee 49.35 47.80 15.21
Southern Mississippi 49.11 52.61 17.32
Marshall 44.19 48.72 13.29
Florida International 35.17 32.94 19.37
Florida Atlantic 33.32 34.92 10.82
Rice 32.96 27.64 15.51
Old Dominion 29.50 24.91 11.45
Texas-El Paso 29.14 24.62 13.23
Texas-San Antonio 28.62 28.82 13.39
Charlotte 20.49 19.40 15.17
North Texas 20.36 19.13 18.11

Here are a few observations based on these data:
  • Western Kentucky defeated Southern Miss in the C-USA championship game, and by the numbers appears to be a well-deserving champion.
  • Florida International, Old Dominion, Rice, and UTEP all finished 5-7 and missed bowl bids. Due to the abundance of bowl games, 5-7 teams were considered for bids, but Rice missed getting one by two APR points. Western Kentucky, Southern Miss, Louisiana Tech, Middle Tennessee, and Marshall got the conference's bowl slots.
  • With the loss to Rice, Charlotte ended the season on a ten-game losing streak after having defeated Georgia State (which surprisingly earned a bowl bid this season) and FCS member Presbyterian to start the season 2-0. North Texas finished 1-11 but did manage to beat UTSA in a conference game.

After the bowl games have been played, I'll post a final season summary.

Nice recap that supports the Bailiff era. We beat the bottom feeders in Charlotte and North Texas but this year got worst by also losing to two other bottom feeders - UTEP and UTSA.

Santa all I want for Christmas is a new coach.
12-16-2015 05:46 PM
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