(09-01-2015 06:49 AM)DavidSt Wrote:  

(08-31-2015 10:59 PM)stever20 Wrote:  

(08-31-2015 10:21 PM)MWC Tex Wrote:  Looks like NMSU is in the WAC for quite a long time. Sunbelt made the wrong choice in my opinion.
Wonder if the WAC can pull another team in.

with the geography the way it is, I don't see at all how they made the wrong choice. NMSU is such the outlier that it's not funny. I don't think folks on here realized just how far out they are. And the thing is- it's perfect now for divisions- App St, Coastal, Ga St, Ga Southern, Troy, So Alabama make the east- La Monroe, La Lafayette, Ark St, UALR, Texas St, Texas Arlington make the west.

UALR and UTA could still add football which could kick both Idaho and New Mexico State to the curb.

UALR could also use warp drive technology to start a shuttle service to other solar systems but that is only slightly less likely than UALR adding football.

(09-01-2015 08:29 AM)msm96wolf Wrote:  I think the next shoe to drop will be Liberty legally challenging the NCAA about entry via FBS independence status. I have a feeling there is going to be changes to the FCS to FBS rules by providing some avenue to establish a new conference or independent entry before the next CFP contract.

More power. I don't think it is a defensible rule as is.

(09-01-2015 09:24 AM)arkstfan Wrote:  

(08-31-2015 08:09 PM)bullet Wrote:  The AAC, MAC and MWC should have gone to 14 quickly and killed off the Sun Belt before they added all these new members. SB has 3 WAC refugees, 3 brand new FBS schools and 2 new FBS schools to go with ASU, ULL, ULM and Troy. The Sun Belt keeps expanding the division and dividing the talent more ways.

Sit back and watch Coastal sign home and home deals with MAC and CUSA and maybe MWC and tell me those leagues wanted the Sun Belt dead.

Agreed...and without the Sun Belt there would be a LOT less G5 teams going to bowl games!

(09-01-2015 08:59 AM)stever20 Wrote:  yeah when UAB returns and CC joins, we'll be up to 130 FBS teams- 10 more than 7 years ago. So 220 players that would have been available to FCS schools gonzo. Also, 630 players that schools in FCS would have had more of a shot with- now won't. Then you add all the new FCS programs- 8 by my count- and that as well is watering down FCS to some degree.

Another thing to consider is that the BIG 10 already will not place any more games with FCS football schools. Other conferences will probably follow suit either formally or informally.

So now FCS is evolving to no more Paydays from P5 football games. Along with very little Press and Cost of attendance. FCS is a broken model.

The schools that moved up from FCS to FBS were very smart. Coastal got the last seat at the table.

You can bet that Missouri State, James Madison, North Dakata St. etc.
may wish they would have got in now.

(09-01-2015 09:31 AM)arkstfan Wrote:  

(09-01-2015 08:29 AM)msm96wolf Wrote:  I think the next shoe to drop will be Liberty legally challenging the NCAA about entry via FBS independence status. I have a feeling there is going to be changes to the FCS to FBS rules by providing some avenue to establish a new conference or independent entry before the next CFP contract.

More power. I don't think it is a defensible rule as is.

It isn't. But, the conference gives you the inventory for FBS viability: scheduling, home games, etc...

Schools will stonewall Liberty if they strike at the matter before "the privileged" throw them a bone and do away with the practice. I'd much rather see that play out. Anti-trust, baby!

(09-01-2015 03:19 AM)jdgaucho Wrote:  

(09-01-2015 03:06 AM)NoDak Wrote:  An FBS Big Sky would accept them with open arms.

Yes indeed, but would they accept an FBS Big Sky? Geographically they fit, but NMSU has no recent history (or maybe none at all) with the Portland State's, EWU's, Northern Colorado's, Montanas or Dakotas of the world.

NAU and NMSU share a history back in the old Border Conference, but that was 60 years ago.

(09-01-2015 08:45 AM)HP-TBDPITL Wrote:  Another blow to FCS football. The quality of FCS will continue to go down as more and more quality players get chances at D-1 scholly's.

The Southern Conference had already been decimated.

One spot left in the MAC...who is likely waiting on Delaware to want to go FBS. JMU would be a 2nd choice.

Yet a FCS newcomer like Abilene Christian can still go to Sun Belt schools in their first year and beat them.


so what is getting watered down?

where it's gonna show isn't yet, but moreso in 4-5 years after everyone is fully transitioned.

(09-01-2015 12:26 PM)dbackjon Wrote:  

(09-01-2015 08:45 AM)HP-TBDPITL Wrote:  Another blow to FCS football. The quality of FCS will continue to go down as more and more quality players get chances at D-1 scholly's.

The Southern Conference had already been decimated.

One spot left in the MAC...who is likely waiting on Delaware to want to go FBS. JMU would be a 2nd choice.

Yet a FCS newcomer like Abilene Christian can still go to Sun Belt schools in their first year and beat them.


so what is getting watered down?

The answer is simple. The value of tv watered down and the quality of the players is watered down.

Sorry, if you have 32 NFL teams and then you increase to 130 NFL teams, there's just no way to say the talent pool is not being watered down. The reality---FCS loses the VAST majority of its games vs FBS. FBS hasnt had a winning percentage vs FCS of below 80% since the year 2000. Usually, the FBS winning percentage vs FCS is over 90%. Pointing to a handful of wins out of a hundred loses is clearly not indicative of any parity in the talent bases. In fact---the cumulative data shows just the opposite---FCS talent is rarely competitive with FBS talent.

Additionally, increasing the supply of FBS games decreases the value---especially when the increasing supply comes with a slowly degraded quality across the board. Its just simple economics.

(09-01-2015 12:31 PM)Attackcoog Wrote:  

(09-01-2015 12:26 PM)dbackjon Wrote:  

(09-01-2015 08:45 AM)HP-TBDPITL Wrote:  Another blow to FCS football. The quality of FCS will continue to go down as more and more quality players get chances at D-1 scholly's.

The Southern Conference had already been decimated.

One spot left in the MAC...who is likely waiting on Delaware to want to go FBS. JMU would be a 2nd choice.

Yet a FCS newcomer like Abilene Christian can still go to Sun Belt schools in their first year and beat them.


so what is getting watered down?

The answer is simple. The value of tv watered down and the quality of the players is watered down.

Sorry, if you have 32 NFL teams and then you increase to 130 NFL teams, there's just no way to say the talent pool is not being watered down. The reality---FCS loses the VAST majority of its games vs FBS. FBS hasnt had a winning percentage vs FCS of below 80% since the year 2000. Usually, the FBS winning percentage vs FCS is over 90%. Pointing to a handful of wins out of a hundred loses is clearly not indicative of any parity in the talent bases. In fact---the cumulative data shows just the opposite---FCS talent is rarely competitive with FBS talent.

Additionally, increasing the supply of FBS games decreases the value---especially when the increasing supply comes with a slowly degraded quality across the board. Its just simple economics.

Any watering down of FBS is squarely on the P5's shoulders. Had the P5's not decided to go on a shopping spree and bleed the Big East, CUSA and to a lesser extent the MWC/WAC dry we would not have almost a dozen new FBS teams today. What did you expect the left over teams in the lower conferences to do? Combine in some sort of hodgepodge conference to satisfy some warped since of FBS privilege? Conferences acted in their own best self interests and that's the way it will always be.

Furthermore 130 FBS teams is not too many if you really want to see the best teams go bowling. If we only had 65-70 P5 teams in their own division as some say we should the P5's would only support at best about 18 bowl games and P5's that might currently go bowling with 7-5 or 8-4 records would be left out with less than 6 wins.

(09-01-2015 12:29 PM)stever20 Wrote:  where it's gonna show isn't yet, but moreso in 4-5 years after everyone is fully transitioned.

It will hurt FCS programs in the south, where all of the new FBS programs are. FCS teams that don't recruit players from the south may not notice any effect.

How will this affect UMass? Were they counting on a SBC membership later?

(09-01-2015 08:47 AM)MWC Tex Wrote:  

(09-01-2015 08:45 AM)HP-TBDPITL Wrote:  Another blow to FCS football. The quality of FCS will continue to go down as more and more quality players get chances at D-1 scholly's.

The Southern Conference had already been decimated.

One spot left in the MAC...who is likely waiting on Delaware to want to go FBS. JMU would be a 2nd choice.

How is there 1 spot in the MAC. UMass is leaving and the MAC is at 12 and not expanding. CCU got the last FBS spot.

I had forgot about UMass leaving the MAC. Maybe they should reconsider and put their hoops program in.

I could see JMU and Delaware trying to get the MAC back to 14. There is some market there as an expansion pair.

As to the FCS getting watered down...that will take a few years to fully transpire...lets say by 2020...when those new schools are recruiting actual D-1 players. Most of these new FBS schools were playing with FCS players.

Talent distribution is probably pretty bell curvy. Lot of guys of around same talent level for probably half or so of the FBS population. Real impact hits FCS. School you were fighting against a year ago, now has FBS label and has 22 more roster spots.

(09-01-2015 12:31 PM)Attackcoog Wrote:  

(09-01-2015 12:26 PM)dbackjon Wrote:  

(09-01-2015 08:45 AM)HP-TBDPITL Wrote:  Another blow to FCS football. The quality of FCS will continue to go down as more and more quality players get chances at D-1 scholly's.

The Southern Conference had already been decimated.

One spot left in the MAC...who is likely waiting on Delaware to want to go FBS. JMU would be a 2nd choice.

Yet a FCS newcomer like Abilene Christian can still go to Sun Belt schools in their first year and beat them.


so what is getting watered down?

The answer is simple. The value of tv watered down and the quality of the players is watered down.

Sorry, if you have 32 NFL teams and then you increase to 130 NFL teams, there's just no way to say the talent pool is not being watered down. The reality---FCS loses the VAST majority of its games vs FBS. FBS hasnt had a winning percentage vs FCS of below 80% since the year 2000. Usually, the FBS winning percentage vs FCS is over 90%. Pointing to a handful of wins out of a hundred loses is clearly not indicative of any parity in the talent bases. In fact---the cumulative data shows just the opposite---FCS talent is rarely competitive with FBS talent.

Additionally, increasing the supply of FBS games decreases the value---especially when the increasing supply comes with a slowly degraded quality across the board. Its just simple economics.

TV isn't a big deal in FCS land - if anything, events like the Montana-NDSU game show that quality football is marketable even beyond the P5 level.

FCs will never win many games - scheduling prevents that. All are road games for FCS, and you don't see many top FCS teams taking on the lower tier G5 or 5 schools - took risky of a loss.


What I am more referring to is the idea that happens every time a FCS team moves to FBS that the division is in trouble. It was said after Boise/Nevada/Marshall/Idaho left, after WKU/MTSU/etc left.

Losing those schools hurt, but there have been enough schools picking up the slack, like the Dakotas, etc.

Hell, CCU didn't have a team 12 years ago.

(09-01-2015 03:29 PM)dbackjon Wrote:  TV isn't a big deal in FCS land - if anything, events like the Montana-NDSU game show that quality football is marketable even beyond the P5 level.

Montana-NDSU was a hit because it was the only CFB game of the weekend. What it shows is that you can market it if you find days or weeks when they have the stage all to themselves.

ESPN probably has interns doing research to figure out if there's any way they could start the FCS season on August 1st, so that they could have 3 or 4 Saturday games like Montana-NDSU.

Several people on this message board suggested awhile back that G5 or FCS should play their football season in the spring. There are many reasons why that can't work, but if it could somehow work, ESPN et al would be happy to put it on TV.

(09-01-2015 02:46 PM)HP-TBDPITL Wrote:  

(09-01-2015 08:47 AM)MWC Tex Wrote:  

(09-01-2015 08:45 AM)HP-TBDPITL Wrote:  Another blow to FCS football. The quality of FCS will continue to go down as more and more quality players get chances at D-1 scholly's.

The Southern Conference had already been decimated.

One spot left in the MAC...who is likely waiting on Delaware to want to go FBS. JMU would be a 2nd choice.

How is there 1 spot in the MAC. UMass is leaving and the MAC is at 12 and not expanding. CCU got the last FBS spot.

I had forgot about UMass leaving the MAC. Maybe they should reconsider and put their hoops program in.

I could see JMU and Delaware trying to get the MAC back to 14. There is some market there as an expansion pair.

Nah.

The direction I see the MAC going in when openings are available is back in the Midwest.

There isn't a way for the MAC to increase its TV value through market presence at this juncture. What it can do by taking bites out of the MVC is tip the scales in basketball recruiting.

Southern Illinois is a school that doesn't get talked about much as a potential candidate for the MAC but its one that Northern Illinois may be more comfortable with and they bring a downstate Illinois presence. They are at the core of MVC territory and would be a major loss to that conference. The MAC is working on setting up a bowl game in St. Louis and having a second Illinois school in SIU would help in that regard.

With Buffalo the most likely school to leave the MAC and the most enticing to attract further eastern members it makes a lot less sense to go in the direction of JMU/Delaware searching for a replacement school.

(08-31-2015 07:14 PM)JMU2004 Wrote:  

(08-31-2015 07:01 PM)uakronkid Wrote:  

(08-31-2015 06:57 PM)Stay Cool Wrote:  Don't see it touching the MAC

No, but JMU has to be feeling the heat.

BS. This is an out for our leadership. No where to go now, so they get to claim its out of their hands.

They can kiss my @$$

JMU could come to its senses and try to get in the Sun Belt as a full member along with EKU or Missouri St.

You'd replace Idaho and/or NM St.

(09-01-2015 02:00 AM)HawaiiMongoose Wrote:  

(08-31-2015 10:40 PM)jdgaucho Wrote:  I wonder if NMSU will start calling around? Can't hurt.

I'm pretty sure NMSU has been calling around for quite some time, but no conference is interested. This decision should convince them they need to focus on improving the WAC.

NM St. belongs in FBS.

It and Idaho's place is in the 3rd tier FBS Pacific/Mountain conference. It has taken various shapes and names in the past, such as WAC and Big West.

Unfortunately, this conference is dormant right now.

(09-01-2015 08:59 AM)stever20 Wrote:  yeah when UAB returns and CC joins, we'll be up to 130 FBS teams- 10 more than 7 years ago. So 220 players that would have been available to FCS schools gonzo. Also, 630 players that schools in FCS would have had more of a shot with- now won't. Then you add all the new FCS programs- 8 by my count- and that as well is watering down FCS to some degree.

The top of FCS and bottom of FBS have no real difference in talent. Perhaps the new FBS schools will get the guys they target more often than not, but then the FCS school just gets another guy that's just as good, on average.

It's the old question of if a guy who signs with Alabama is a five-star because he's a five-star or because he signed with Alabama.