(08-21-2015 10:33 AM)Enviro5609 Wrote:  

(08-21-2015 09:55 AM)Tigers2B1 Wrote:  

(08-21-2015 08:26 AM)robertfoshizzle Wrote:  

(08-21-2015 08:03 AM)TIGERCITY Wrote:  

(08-20-2015 12:09 PM)TforTempleU Wrote:  I would hope so. Unfortunately the top teams in the AAC will most likely beat up on each other and we won't get the access bid.

FWIW - of the top teams last season, Memphis, UCF and Cincinnati, only Cincinnati took a loss to one of the other two. But it was a bad one and at home. And UCF's loss was to lowly UConn. There's little room for error in this conference. A really bad loss to anybody in conference or a loss to a bad opponent probably means you'll need lots of help from outside the conference if access bowl is in your dreams. Only Marshall provided that help and they were probably still second in line behind Boise.

I figure most years, the absolute minimum to get a shot at the access bowl is 11-2, and some years it could be 12-1 or 13-0. It's a tall order, but if you can't go 11-2 in a G5 conference, you don't deserve to go to a top bowl game anyway. I mean, our league is better than a lot of people give it credit for, but it's still no better than the 6th strongest football conference.

Sad though that because of SoS a g5 just can't make it into the top 4 and so are barred from a national championship, no matter how good they might be. I once thought the final 4 team playoff would be expanded to 8 in a couple of years. That no longer appears to be the case. I mean you can't even dream the improbable any longer.

Not true. The American can produce a CFP team even with only 4. In fact it is probably the only G5 conference that can. Which is where the P6 conversation comes from.

Tulane has the toughest SoS in the American (Ranked 47th in FBS, with a 49.36). SMU and Navy are close seconds. Highlights on the Tulane schedule are playing Duke at home, Georgia Tech on the road, plus 3 top 50 RPI schools in-conference (@Memphis, UCF, @Navy) and Houston with an RPI of 60.

Last year, Florida State had a SoS of 50.38, (37th in FBS). Comparable to Tulane this year.

If Tulane were to go undefeated against their schedule this year, the would be "in." No question. Just like there was no question that FSU was "in" as long as they beat Georgia Tech to remain undefeated at the ACC championship. Any team with a top 50 SoS and an undefeated record is in. The conventional wisom, even amongst the CFP big wigs and ESPN is you have to respect that accomplishment and give them a shot. It de-legitimizes the CFP otherwise, and then you are putting the whole system at risk. if an undefeated top 50 SoS team gets left out at 4, the playoff will go to 8 or there will be chaos. (*It would be ironic, because the BCS changing to allow "BCS busters" was because of an undefeated #7 Tulane team in 1998 getting the hose.)

This is both the strength and weakness of the American. Our conference has enough parity and strong teams that an undefeated American champion with two marquee P5 OOC wins will be in the college football playoff discussion.

The MWC and CUSA have Marshall and Bosie, but Marshall and Boise are who they are because their conferences are dumpster fires otherwise. They may never be able to crack the top 4, undefeated or not. It would take a massive OOC schedule to have a reputable SoS.

EDIT-

Ironically, the only issue with this is that the teams with the best SoS in the American are the "worst" teams. The top preseason teams in the American are Cincy, Temple, Memphis, Houston, ECU, and UCF. They took very little chances with their schedule, and the SoS reflects that. Cincy (137), Temple (161), Memphis (200), Houston (202), ECU (193) and UCF (149).

Compare that to Tulane (47) and SMU (70).

The only team with a good ranking and a good schedule, at least at pre-season, is Navy. Ranking of 50 and SoS of 74. If Navy goes undefeated this year, expect them to be on the bubble of the top 4 conversation, as long as Notre Dame Memphis and Air Force live up to their pre-season rankings.

Take that for what you will.

It really all boils down to the out of conference games. SoS is not really the issue, but perception. Win the G5 games and win at least 5 P5 games and the champ will get at the access bowl. Lose the wrong games and the champ has to win at least 10.

(08-22-2015 07:39 PM)ultraviolet Wrote:  

(08-19-2015 06:03 PM)TIGERCITY Wrote:  http://www.usatoday.com/story/sports/nca...01vmn00dth

The AAC >>>

30. Cincinnati
35. Memphis
50. Navy
56. Temple
58. Central Florida
63. Houston
66. East Carolina
91. Tulane
103. South Florida
108. Tulsa
117. SMU
119. Connecticut

I'm kind of surprised Houston wasn't rated higher.

agree

(08-22-2015 07:20 PM)Bearcats#1 Wrote:  

(08-22-2015 07:02 PM)billybobby777 Wrote:  

(08-19-2015 06:03 PM)TIGERCITY Wrote:  http://www.usatoday.com/story/sports/nca...01vmn00dth

The AAC >>>

30. Cincinnati
35. Memphis
50. Navy
56. Temple
58. Central Florida
63. Houston
66. East Carolina
91. Tulane
103. South Florida
108. Tulsa
117. SMU
119. Connecticut

ECU 7th??? No way. ECU beats UCONN, Temple, USF for sure. UCF and Cincinnati probably...Cinci is always tough with that ridiculous back and forth game from last year I'm still recovering from...we got it this year. AAC title game in Greensville this year guys! Clear your calendar for it. Hopefully its vs Houston so I can car pool with some Coog fans...ok, screw it, Houston can host it. For those who can't get tickets you can watch it free on ABC. Cheers!

with a new qb....k

yeah we lost a great QB and receiver and more but, I like it when no expectations are put on ECU...when the hype is up, ECU tends to under achieve. I like how everyone expects ECU to be an afterthought this year, its going to feel really good when a couple teams projected higher go down. UCF also loses some guys but no one is underestimating them. On paper Memphis looks really good to me this year. Talent wise, this could be the best Memphis team in a long time. Cheers!

Bearcats#1 Wrote:SOS talk is worthless right now...not a single game has been played.

This

(08-22-2015 09:02 PM)billybobby777 Wrote:  yeah we lost a great QB and receiver

Those are pretty big losses. Not exactly third string punter and seventh string TE...

(08-22-2015 05:31 PM)HuskyU Wrote:  

(08-21-2015 10:33 AM)Enviro5609 Wrote:  

(08-21-2015 09:55 AM)Tigers2B1 Wrote:  

(08-21-2015 08:26 AM)robertfoshizzle Wrote:  

(08-21-2015 08:03 AM)TIGERCITY Wrote:  FWIW - of the top teams last season, Memphis, UCF and Cincinnati, only Cincinnati took a loss to one of the other two. But it was a bad one and at home. And UCF's loss was to lowly UConn. There's little room for error in this conference. A really bad loss to anybody in conference or a loss to a bad opponent probably means you'll need lots of help from outside the conference if access bowl is in your dreams. Only Marshall provided that help and they were probably still second in line behind Boise.

I figure most years, the absolute minimum to get a shot at the access bowl is 11-2, and some years it could be 12-1 or 13-0. It's a tall order, but if you can't go 11-2 in a G5 conference, you don't deserve to go to a top bowl game anyway. I mean, our league is better than a lot of people give it credit for, but it's still no better than the 6th strongest football conference.

Sad though that because of SoS a g5 just can't make it into the top 4 and so are barred from a national championship, no matter how good they might be. I once thought the final 4 team playoff would be expanded to 8 in a couple of years. That no longer appears to be the case. I mean you can't even dream the improbable any longer.

Not true. The American can produce a CFP team even with only 4. In fact it is probably the only G5 conference that can. Which is where the P6 conversation comes from.

Tulane has the toughest SoS in the American (Ranked 47th in FBS, with a 49.36). SMU and Navy are close seconds. Highlights on the Tulane schedule are playing Duke at home, Georgia Tech on the road, plus 3 top 50 RPI schools in-conference (@Memphis, UCF, @Navy) and Houston with an RPI of 60.

Last year, Florida State had a SoS of 50.38, (37th in FBS). Comparable to Tulane this year.

If Tulane were to go undefeated against their schedule this year, the would be "in." No question. Just like there was no question that FSU was "in" as long as they beat Georgia Tech to remain undefeated at the ACC championship. Any team with a top 50 SoS and an undefeated record is in. The conventional wisom, even amongst the CFP big wigs and ESPN is you have to respect that accomplishment and give them a shot. It de-legitimizes the CFP otherwise, and then you are putting the whole system at risk. if an undefeated top 50 SoS team gets left out at 4, the playoff will go to 8 or there will be chaos. (*It would be ironic, because the BCS changing to allow "BCS busters" was because of an undefeated #7 Tulane team in 1998 getting the hose.)

This is both the strength and weakness of the American. Our conference has enough parity and strong teams that an undefeated American champion with two marquee P5 OOC wins will be in the college football playoff discussion.

The MWC and CUSA have Marshall and Bosie, but Marshall and Boise are who they are because their conferences are dumpster fires otherwise. They may never be able to crack the top 4, undefeated or not. It would take a massive OOC schedule to have a reputable SoS.

EDIT-

Ironically, the only issue with this is that the teams with the best SoS in the American are the "worst" teams. The top preseason teams in the American are Cincy, Temple, Memphis, Houston, ECU, and UCF. They took very little chances with their schedule, and the SoS reflects that. Cincy (137), Temple (161), Memphis (200), Houston (202), ECU (193) and UCF (149).

Compare that to Tulane (47) and SMU (70).

The only team with a good ranking and a good schedule, at least at pre-season, is Navy. Ranking of 50 and SoS of 74. If Navy goes undefeated this year, expect them to be on the bubble of the top 4 conversation, as long as Notre Dame Memphis and Air Force live up to their pre-season rankings.

Take that for what you will.

Link to SOS rankings?

http://realtimerpi.com/college_football/...c_Men.html

Check out Memphis' predicted record at that site >>

http://realtimerpi.com/college_football/...ml?Memphis