(08-15-2015 05:04 PM)JoeJag Wrote:  

(08-15-2015 10:13 AM)BurlingtonApp Wrote:  

(08-15-2015 09:45 AM)JoeJag Wrote:  

(08-14-2015 02:12 PM)DoubleAggie Wrote:  So, for the OOCs anyway, we all have a vested interest in each other's success.

Eye-balling the games:

App: Howard, @Clemson, @ODU, Wyoming
ArkSt: @USC, Missouri, Missouri State, @Toledo
GaSo: @WVU, Western Michigan, Citadel, @UGA
GaSt: UNCC, @Oregon, Liberty, @Ball St
Idaho: Ohio, @USC, Wofford, @Auburn
NMSU: @Florida, UTEP, @UNM, @Ole Miss
USA: Gardiner-Webb, @Nebraska, @SDSU, NC State
TxSt: @FSU, PVA&M, SoMiss, @Houston
Troy: @NC State, Charleston So., @Wisconsin, @Miss St
ULL: @Kentucky, NW State, Akron, @La Tech
ULM: @UGA, Nocholls State, @Alabama, @Hawaii

My casual analysis sez 19 wins out of 44 games.

1 P5 win, 8 G5 wins, and all ten over lower division foes.

I hope we win all these and more, but 19 would be an improvement over 2014.

Sorry, but I can realistically only see 12 wins

Which 12?

I've changed my opinion it's 15:

App. State over Howard and ODU.
Arkansas State over Missouri State.
Georgia Southern over The Citadel.
Georgia State over UNCC and Liberty.
USA over Gardner-Webb.
Tex. State over PVA&M and USM.
Troy over Charleston Southern.
Louisiana over Kentucky, NW State and Akron.
UL Monroe over Nicholls State and Hawaii.

No faith in us against Toledo? Not the same team as last year, and we scored 40 plus points in that game.

(08-15-2015 02:54 PM)TroyFootball05 Wrote:  

(08-15-2015 01:52 PM)Saint3333 Wrote:  Preseason #36 in FCS...

Some of our teams may be improved, but if we took Georgia State, Idaho, New Mexico State, Troy, and ULM from last season, they would not be in the Top 36 of FCS. Both Sagarin and Massey confirm this among other factors.

CSU finished 26th in the massey ratings last season, and enters 30th in the combined ratings. They are not Gardner Webb or Austin Peay. They are a playoff contender that can play some ball. I doubt Troy would have been a playoff team last season.

They also beat Liberty. A quick look at the AppState/Liberty score and the AppState/Troy score says a 90% chance of win by Troy may be misjudged.

Troy should be improved must like App at the end of the year was compared to the team that played Liberty.

(08-15-2015 05:13 PM)chiefsfan Wrote:  

(08-15-2015 05:04 PM)JoeJag Wrote:  

(08-15-2015 10:13 AM)BurlingtonApp Wrote:  

(08-15-2015 09:45 AM)JoeJag Wrote:  

(08-14-2015 02:12 PM)DoubleAggie Wrote:  So, for the OOCs anyway, we all have a vested interest in each other's success.

Eye-balling the games:

App: Howard, @Clemson, @ODU, Wyoming
ArkSt: @USC, Missouri, Missouri State, @Toledo
GaSo: @WVU, Western Michigan, Citadel, @UGA
GaSt: UNCC, @Oregon, Liberty, @Ball St
Idaho: Ohio, @USC, Wofford, @Auburn
NMSU: @Florida, UTEP, @UNM, @Ole Miss
USA: Gardiner-Webb, @Nebraska, @SDSU, NC State
TxSt: @FSU, PVA&M, SoMiss, @Houston
Troy: @NC State, Charleston So., @Wisconsin, @Miss St
ULL: @Kentucky, NW State, Akron, @La Tech
ULM: @UGA, Nocholls State, @Alabama, @Hawaii

My casual analysis sez 19 wins out of 44 games.

1 P5 win, 8 G5 wins, and all ten over lower division foes.

I hope we win all these and more, but 19 would be an improvement over 2014.

Sorry, but I can realistically only see 12 wins

Which 12?

I've changed my opinion it's 15:

App. State over Howard and ODU.
Arkansas State over Missouri State.
Georgia Southern over The Citadel.
Georgia State over UNCC and Liberty.
USA over Gardner-Webb.
Tex. State over PVA&M and USM.
Troy over Charleston Southern.
Louisiana over Kentucky, NW State and Akron.
UL Monroe over Nicholls State and Hawaii.

No faith in us against Toledo? Not the same team as last year, and we scored 40 plus points in that game.

I believe Arkansas State stands a good chance of beating Toledo, but this one is on the road at Toledo. IMO, they will be tough at their place. Of course the head on this thread is," Fun Belt OOC" and so for fun, I'll pick ASU.

Oh, and I'm not putting down any money on these picks.

Been saying it for months. We beat WVU in week one. By double digits.

(08-15-2015 05:04 PM)JoeJag Wrote:  

(08-15-2015 10:13 AM)BurlingtonApp Wrote:  

(08-15-2015 09:45 AM)JoeJag Wrote:  

(08-14-2015 02:12 PM)DoubleAggie Wrote:  So, for the OOCs anyway, we all have a vested interest in each other's success.

Eye-balling the games:

App: Howard, @Clemson, @ODU, Wyoming
ArkSt: @USC, Missouri, Missouri State, @Toledo
GaSo: @WVU, Western Michigan, Citadel, @UGA
GaSt: UNCC, @Oregon, Liberty, @Ball St
Idaho: Ohio, @USC, Wofford, @Auburn
NMSU: @Florida, UTEP, @UNM, @Ole Miss
USA: Gardiner-Webb, @Nebraska, @SDSU, NC State
TxSt: @FSU, PVA&M, SoMiss, @Houston
Troy: @NC State, Charleston So., @Wisconsin, @Miss St
ULL: @Kentucky, NW State, Akron, @La Tech
ULM: @UGA, Nocholls State, @Alabama, @Hawaii

My casual analysis sez 19 wins out of 44 games.

1 P5 win, 8 G5 wins, and all ten over lower division foes.

I hope we win all these and more, but 19 would be an improvement over 2014.

Sorry, but I can realistically only see 12 wins

Which 12?

I've changed my opinion it's 15:

App. State over Howard and ODU.
Arkansas State over Missouri State.
Georgia Southern over The Citadel.
Georgia State over UNCC and Liberty.
USA over Gardner-Webb.
Tex. State over PVA&M and USM.
Troy over Charleston Southern.
Louisiana over Kentucky, NW State and Akron.
UL Monroe over Nicholls State and Hawaii.

No love for GS. Can't even beat a MAC team at home. We are doomed.
These seem like a worst case scenario, add 3 more wins and it'll be about right.

(08-16-2015 06:18 AM)trueeagle98 Wrote:  

(08-15-2015 05:04 PM)JoeJag Wrote:  

(08-15-2015 10:13 AM)BurlingtonApp Wrote:  

(08-15-2015 09:45 AM)JoeJag Wrote:  

(08-14-2015 02:12 PM)DoubleAggie Wrote:  So, for the OOCs anyway, we all have a vested interest in each other's success.

Eye-balling the games:

App: Howard, @Clemson, @ODU, Wyoming
ArkSt: @USC, Missouri, Missouri State, @Toledo
GaSo: @WVU, Western Michigan, Citadel, @UGA
GaSt: UNCC, @Oregon, Liberty, @Ball St
Idaho: Ohio, @USC, Wofford, @Auburn
NMSU: @Florida, UTEP, @UNM, @Ole Miss
USA: Gardiner-Webb, @Nebraska, @SDSU, NC State
TxSt: @FSU, PVA&M, SoMiss, @Houston
Troy: @NC State, Charleston So., @Wisconsin, @Miss St
ULL: @Kentucky, NW State, Akron, @La Tech
ULM: @UGA, Nocholls State, @Alabama, @Hawaii

My casual analysis sez 19 wins out of 44 games.

1 P5 win, 8 G5 wins, and all ten over lower division foes.

I hope we win all these and more, but 19 would be an improvement over 2014.

Sorry, but I can realistically only see 12 wins

Which 12?

I've changed my opinion it's 15:

App. State over Howard and ODU.
Arkansas State over Missouri State.
Georgia Southern over The Citadel.
Georgia State over UNCC and Liberty.
USA over Gardner-Webb.
Tex. State over PVA&M and USM.
Troy over Charleston Southern.
Louisiana over Kentucky, NW State and Akron.
UL Monroe over Nicholls State and Hawaii.

No love for GS. Can't even beat a MAC team at home. We are doomed.
These seem like a worst case scenario, add 3 more wins and it'll be about right.

JMHO, man. Don't go jumping into that "crick" to drown your sorrows.

How about a close to best case record. i think we will have a few chances to upset A5 teams, but im not projecting wins for these records. losses in bold.

App: Howard, @Clemson, @ODU, Wyoming 3-1
ArkSt: @USC, Missouri, Missouri State, @Toledo 2-2
GaSo: @WVU, Western Michigan, Citadel, @UGA 2-2
GaSt: UNCC, @Oregon, Liberty, @Ball St 3-1
Idaho: Ohio, @USC, Wofford, @Auburn 2-2
NMSU: @Florida, UTEP, @UNM, @Ole Miss 2-2
USA: Gardiner-Webb, @Nebraska, @SDSU, NC State 1-3
TxSt: @FSU, PVA&M, SoMiss, @Houston 2-2
Troy: @NC State,Charleston So,@Wisconsin,@Miss St 1-4
ULL: @Kentucky, NW State, Akron, @La Tech 3-1
ULM: @UGA,Nicholls St,@Alabama,@Hawaii @tulsa 3-2

total OCC record 24-22

(08-16-2015 03:51 AM)eagleskins Wrote:  Been saying it for months. We beat WVU in week one. By double digits.

Kiss of death. Thanks for that.

Sent from my SM-N910V using Tapatalk

(08-17-2015 06:23 PM)The Black Flag Wrote:  

(08-16-2015 03:51 AM)eagleskins Wrote:  Been saying it for months. We beat WVU in week one. By double digits.

Kiss of death. Thanks for that.

Sent from my SM-N910V using Tapatalk

I thought he was just trying to be funny . . . . God knows it made me laugh . .

(08-16-2015 03:51 AM)eagleskins Wrote:  Been saying it for months. We beat WVU in week one. By double digits.

This is what I'm talking about.
So -- when you're proven right, come back and rub some noses in it.

And if you're wrong, well, what the hell. It's just a message board. This has no bearing whatsoever on anything the team does or doesn't do.

(08-14-2015 03:13 PM)TroyFootball05 Wrote:  

(08-14-2015 02:16 PM)Pounce FTW Wrote:  Somehow I missed until now that Troy has three P5s scheduled.

$$$

Actually no...Wisconsin is the only money game on our schedule....Mississippi State game is a game still part of the 2-1 deal we had with them
NCSU is part of the 1-1 deal.

next year really works in our favor OOC

Austin Peay
Umass
Southern Miss
Clemson

(08-15-2015 01:59 AM)TroyFootball05 Wrote:  

(08-15-2015 01:19 AM)Native Georgian Wrote:  App St @Clemson
Ark St @Southern Cal
Ark St vs. Missouri
GASO @West Virginia
GASO @Georgia
GAST @Oregon
Idaho @Southern Cal
Idaho @Auburn
NMSU @Florida
NMSU @Ole Miss
USA @Nebraska
USA vs. N.C. State
TXST @Florida State
Troy @N.C. State
Troy @Mississippi State
Troy @Wisconsin
ULL @Kentucky
ULM @Georgia
ULM @Alabama

That ^^^ is a tough, tough mountain to climb. If the Belt is able to win any of those games, it will be highly impressive.

I've got ArkSt over Missouri and decent chance of ULL over Kentucky. An average WKU beat Kentucky twice a couple years ago and UK is breaking in a new offensive coordinator. The rest look like big losses to me.

I give UL a much better chance of beating Kentucky than I do stAte beating Missouri. Mizzu is the defending SEC East Champion, and looks to be competing for that crown again this year.

Almost sure wins
App vs Howard
Texas State vs. Prairie View A&M

Most likely wins:
Ark St vs Missouri State
USA vs Gardner-Webb
ULM Nicholls State
UL vs Akron
UL vs Northwestern State
Georgia Southern vs. Citadel

Reasonably even, favored
App @ ODU (ODU's defense stinks and they can't stop the run)
App vs. Wyoming (Wyoming shouldn't be able to beat the hillbillies in Boone)
Georgia Southern vs Western Michigan (tough game, but at home I like us)
Idaho vs. Wofford (assuming Wofford is another mid-level SoCon team and not some of the top-10 teams they have had in the past)
Texas St. vs. Southern Miss
Georgia State vs. UNCC
Troy vs. Charleston Southern

Reasonably Even, not favored
Ark St @ Toledo
ULL @ La Tech
ULM @ Hawaii
Georgia Southern @ West Virginia (call me a homer)
Georgia State vs Liberty
Idaho vs. Ohio
Texas St. @ Houston
Georgia State @ Ball State
ULL @ Kentucky
NMSU vs UTEP
South Alabama @ SDSU
USA versus NC State

Long shots
App @ Clemson (I haven't bought into the Clemson hype, they are a big tease team)
Ark State @ USC
Ark State vs Missouri
Georgia Southern @ UGA (UGA is overrated but still will be tough)
Troy @ NC State
Texas State @ Florida State
South Alabama @ Nebraska


Not a chance
Georgia State @ Oregon
Troy @ Wisconsin
Troy @Miss State
ULM @ UGA
NMSU @ Florida
Idaho @ Auburn
Idaho @ USC

Wins from each category:
Sure wins: 2/2
Most likely wins: 8/8
Reasonably even but favored: 5/7
Reasonably even but not favored: 4/12
Long Shot: 0/7 (but wouldn't be surprised to get one)
No Chance: 0/7

19 wins total.
I think that's a perfectly reasonable prediction.

(08-19-2015 04:21 PM)EigenEagle Wrote:  Almost sure wins
App vs Howard
Texas State vs. Prairie View A&M

Most likely wins:
Ark St vs Missouri State
USA vs Gardner-Webb
ULM Nicholls State
UL vs Akron
UL vs Northwestern State
Georgia Southern vs. Citadel

Reasonably even, favored
App @ ODU (ODU's defense stinks and they can't stop the run)
App vs. Wyoming (Wyoming shouldn't be able to beat the hillbillies in Boone)
Georgia Southern vs Western Michigan (tough game, but at home I like us)
Idaho vs. Wofford (assuming Wofford is another mid-level SoCon team and not some of the top-10 teams they have had in the past)
Texas St. vs. Southern Miss
Georgia State vs. UNCC
Troy vs. Charleston Southern

Reasonably Even, not favored
Ark St @ Toledo
ULL @ La Tech
ULM @ Hawaii
Georgia Southern @ West Virginia (call me a homer)
Georgia State vs Liberty
Idaho vs. Ohio
Texas St. @ Houston
Georgia State @ Ball State
ULL @ Kentucky
NMSU vs UTEP
South Alabama @ SDSU
USA versus NC State

Long shots
App @ Clemson (I haven't bought into the Clemson hype, they are a big tease team)
Ark State @ USC
Ark State vs Missouri
Georgia Southern @ UGA (UGA is overrated but still will be tough)
Troy @ NC State
Texas State @ Florida State
South Alabama @ Nebraska


Not a chance
Georgia State @ Oregon
Troy @ Wisconsin
Troy @Miss State
ULM @ UGA
NMSU @ Florida
Idaho @ Auburn
Idaho @ USC

Wins from each category:
Sure wins: 2/2
Most likely wins: 8/8
Reasonably even but favored: 5/7
Reasonably even but not favored: 4/12
Long Shot: 0/7 (but wouldn't be surprised to get one)
No Chance: 0/7

19 wins total.
I think that's a perfectly reasonable prediction.

Just an observation. You have USA vs. Gardner-Webb under "Most Likely Wins"

USA @ SDSU under "Reasonably Even, Not Favored"

USA @ Nebraska under "Long Shots"

Gardner-Webb, members of the 7-team Big South Conference (where they were 0-6 in 2014) is picked to finish 6th.

So, IYO, you don't think the Jags are a "Almost Sure Wins" candidate? Just an observation as I mentioned.

(08-20-2015 12:11 PM)JoeJag Wrote:  

(08-19-2015 04:21 PM)EigenEagle Wrote:  Almost sure wins
App vs Howard
Texas State vs. Prairie View A&M

Most likely wins:
Ark St vs Missouri State
USA vs Gardner-Webb
ULM Nicholls State
UL vs Akron
UL vs Northwestern State
Georgia Southern vs. Citadel

Reasonably even, favored
App @ ODU (ODU's defense stinks and they can't stop the run)
App vs. Wyoming (Wyoming shouldn't be able to beat the hillbillies in Boone)
Georgia Southern vs Western Michigan (tough game, but at home I like us)
Idaho vs. Wofford (assuming Wofford is another mid-level SoCon team and not some of the top-10 teams they have had in the past)
Texas St. vs. Southern Miss
Georgia State vs. UNCC
Troy vs. Charleston Southern

Reasonably Even, not favored
Ark St @ Toledo
ULL @ La Tech
ULM @ Hawaii
Georgia Southern @ West Virginia (call me a homer)
Georgia State vs Liberty
Idaho vs. Ohio
Texas St. @ Houston
Georgia State @ Ball State
ULL @ Kentucky
NMSU vs UTEP
South Alabama @ SDSU
USA versus NC State

Long shots
App @ Clemson (I haven't bought into the Clemson hype, they are a big tease team)
Ark State @ USC
Ark State vs Missouri
Georgia Southern @ UGA (UGA is overrated but still will be tough)
Troy @ NC State
Texas State @ Florida State
South Alabama @ Nebraska


Not a chance
Georgia State @ Oregon
Troy @ Wisconsin
Troy @Miss State
ULM @ UGA
NMSU @ Florida
Idaho @ Auburn
Idaho @ USC

Wins from each category:
Sure wins: 2/2
Most likely wins: 8/8
Reasonably even but favored: 5/7
Reasonably even but not favored: 4/12
Long Shot: 0/7 (but wouldn't be surprised to get one)
No Chance: 0/7

19 wins total.
I think that's a perfectly reasonable prediction.

Just an observation. You have USA vs. Gardner-Webb under "Most Likely Wins"

USA @ SDSU under "Reasonably Even, Not Favored"

USA @ Nebraska under "Long Shots"

Gardner-Webb, members of the 7-team Big South Conference (where they were 0-6 in 2014) is picked to finish 6th.

So, IYO, you don't think the Jags are a "Almost Sure Wins" candidate? Just an observation as I mentioned.

Oh, and I left out NC State @USA under "Reasonably Even, Not Favored".

(08-19-2015 03:48 PM)Vobserver Wrote:  

(08-15-2015 01:59 AM)TroyFootball05 Wrote:  

(08-15-2015 01:19 AM)Native Georgian Wrote:  App St @Clemson
Ark St @Southern Cal
Ark St vs. Missouri
GASO @West Virginia
GASO @Georgia
GAST @Oregon
Idaho @Southern Cal
Idaho @Auburn
NMSU @Florida
NMSU @Ole Miss
USA @Nebraska
USA vs. N.C. State
TXST @Florida State
Troy @N.C. State
Troy @Mississippi State
Troy @Wisconsin
ULL @Kentucky
ULM @Georgia
ULM @Alabama

That ^^^ is a tough, tough mountain to climb. If the Belt is able to win any of those games, it will be highly impressive.

I've got ArkSt over Missouri and decent chance of ULL over Kentucky. An average WKU beat Kentucky twice a couple years ago and UK is breaking in a new offensive coordinator. The rest look like big losses to me.

I give UL a much better chance of beating Kentucky than I do stAte beating Missouri. Mizzu is the defending SEC East Champion, and looks to be competing for that crown again this year.

We are at home...in front of a sellout crowd. That will increase our chances at least.

So am I starting to see confidence in my SB brethren? Is it OK for GS to show a little confidence now and not get ganged up on? Or do we have to go through 25yrs of fatality before we are allowed, lol.

No but seriously..

(08-20-2015 12:25 PM)JoeJag Wrote:  

(08-20-2015 12:11 PM)JoeJag Wrote:  

(08-19-2015 04:21 PM)EigenEagle Wrote:  Almost sure wins
App vs Howard
Texas State vs. Prairie View A&M

Most likely wins:
Ark St vs Missouri State
USA vs Gardner-Webb
ULM Nicholls State
UL vs Akron
UL vs Northwestern State
Georgia Southern vs. Citadel

Reasonably even, favored
App @ ODU (ODU's defense stinks and they can't stop the run)
App vs. Wyoming (Wyoming shouldn't be able to beat the hillbillies in Boone)
Georgia Southern vs Western Michigan (tough game, but at home I like us)
Idaho vs. Wofford (assuming Wofford is another mid-level SoCon team and not some of the top-10 teams they have had in the past)
Texas St. vs. Southern Miss
Georgia State vs. UNCC
Troy vs. Charleston Southern

Reasonably Even, not favored
Ark St @ Toledo
ULL @ La Tech
ULM @ Hawaii
Georgia Southern @ West Virginia (call me a homer)
Georgia State vs Liberty
Idaho vs. Ohio
Texas St. @ Houston
Georgia State @ Ball State
ULL @ Kentucky
NMSU vs UTEP
South Alabama @ SDSU
USA versus NC State

Long shots
App @ Clemson (I haven't bought into the Clemson hype, they are a big tease team)
Ark State @ USC
Ark State vs Missouri
Georgia Southern @ UGA (UGA is overrated but still will be tough)
Troy @ NC State
Texas State @ Florida State
South Alabama @ Nebraska


Not a chance
Georgia State @ Oregon
Troy @ Wisconsin
Troy @Miss State
ULM @ UGA
NMSU @ Florida
Idaho @ Auburn
Idaho @ USC

Wins from each category:
Sure wins: 2/2
Most likely wins: 8/8
Reasonably even but favored: 5/7
Reasonably even but not favored: 4/12
Long Shot: 0/7 (but wouldn't be surprised to get one)
No Chance: 0/7

19 wins total.
I think that's a perfectly reasonable prediction.

Just an observation. You have USA vs. Gardner-Webb under "Most Likely Wins"

USA @ SDSU under "Reasonably Even, Not Favored"

USA @ Nebraska under "Long Shots"

Gardner-Webb, members of the 7-team Big South Conference (where they were 0-6 in 2014) is picked to finish 6th.

So, IYO, you don't think the Jags are a "Almost Sure Wins" candidate? Just an observation as I mentioned.

Oh, and I left out NC State @USA under "Reasonably Even, Not Favored".

The placement of the NC State game and the Nebraska game should be swapped.

(09-27-2015 11:39 AM)Native Georgian Wrote:  bump

Remaining OOC opportunities. Believe this list is complete but no promises

Wyoming at Appalachian State (Oct 3)
Liberty at Georgia State (Oct 3)
NMSU at New Mexico (Oct 3)
NMSU at Ole Miss (Oct 10)
ULL at La. Tech (Oct 10)
Troy at Mississippi State (Oct 10)
ULM at Tulsa (Oct 10)
Georgia State at Ball State (Oct 17)
Georgia Southern at Georgia (Nov 21)
Idaho at Auburn (Nov 21)

Ouch.

App over Wyoming and ULM over Tulsa would appear to be the only good possibilities.

If that happened, we'd have 0 P5 wins and 4 G5 wins.

Less than my rose colored hopes and a step back from last year.