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The logical end game
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swardy76 Offline
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Post: #1
The logical end game
Thanks H1, JR and others on their ideas on how this all goes down. Based on the following assumptions here is how I think this ends.

Assumptions in no particular order:

OU and KU will go as a pair
TX will not go to the B1G or SEC
All 10 teams in the BIG XII need to be placed
The PAC (and probably the ACC) will need to take 4 if they take any
OU will only go to the B1G or SEC
The B1G will only accept KU, OU, TX, and maybe ISU
The SEC will only accept OU, KU, TX, and maybe WVU
The PAC needs markets/timezones and must get into Texas.
ESPN needs to create more value

Conclusion:

OU and KU will go to the SEC.
The ACC takes WVU, TCU, BU, and TT/Houston
The PAC takes OSU, KSU, ISU, and TT/Houston
TX goes independent with the ACC

Reasons:

RRR becomes an ACC/SEC product (ESPN)
TX/ND becomes an ACC product (ESPN)
The PAC gets their timezones and gets TX
WVU/PITT restored (ESPN)
TX/aTm restored (ESPN)
OU/OSU and KU/KSU become SEC products (home years) (ESPN)
The B1G is shutout

The ACC then organizes into pods of 3 plus a rival and plays a 9 game schedule

Pods of 3 (2+1+6)

WVU
UL
VT

BC
SU
PITT

UVA
UNC
Duke

WF
Miami
FSA

TT
TCU
Baylor

GT
NCST
CU

Rivals
WVU-PITT
VT-UVA
UNC-NCST
Duke-GT
CU-FSU
BC-WF
UM-BU
TCU-SU
UL-TT

or Pods of 6 (5+2+2)

BC
Syracuse
PITT
WVU
UL
VT

UVA
UNC
Duke
GT
NCST
Clemson

WF
Miami
FSU
TT
TCU
Baylor

In both cases have Texas and ND play 6 games plus one against each other for 7 ACC games. The winner of the TX/ND will have a path to the playoffs if they are ranked higher.
08-09-2015 10:20 PM
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He1nousOne Offline
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Post: #2
RE: The logical end game
Oh hey look, it's a Big Ten hater from the ACC. Big surprise..... 03-zzz

What I don't get is why you are thanking me but whatever.
08-09-2015 10:31 PM
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58-56 Offline
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RE: The logical end game
(08-09-2015 10:20 PM)swardy76 Wrote:  All 10 teams in the BIG XII need to be placed

Why not just "Sucks to be you!"?
08-09-2015 10:40 PM
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33laszlo99 Offline
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Post: #4
RE: The logical end game
Great news for the PAC. They finally fulfill their dream of cracking the Lubbock market, along with Ames, Manhattan and Stillwater. A goldmine, for sure.
08-10-2015 12:03 AM
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DavidSt Offline
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Post: #5
RE: The logical end game
More like he hates all G5 schools when there are value with some of the top schools.
08-10-2015 12:40 AM
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CintiFan Offline
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Post: #6
RE: The logical end game
NFW
08-10-2015 12:41 AM
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Kittonhead Offline
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Post: #7
RE: The logical end game
P5 won't become a P4.

Five power conferences are established in the autonomy model. The SEC, ACC, B1G, PAC have no obligation to make sure every B12 school finds placement.

The only thing we are hearing is Oklahoma is threatening to bolt if the B12 doesn't get to 12 members. Nothing more.

OU/KU can bolt and the B12 contract won't skip a beat. There is still K-State and Oklahoma State. They can bring in Cincinnati and Memphis to make up for the lost basketball power and be just fine.

Texas doesn't want to go anywhere as long as it can continue to have its say in the B12. That means no getting back to 12 schools.
08-10-2015 01:53 AM
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Zombiewoof Offline
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Post: #8
RE: The logical end game
As much as it may be fun to come up with scenarios in which everyone is "taken care of" and there is an orderly, tidy answer, but there is no "end game." Any movement will be messy for someone and the likelihood is that few teams will move, if any. After the Oklahoma and Kansas rumors die down a bit, the most likely situation is that the Big XII adds two and there is calm for an extended period in the P5.
08-10-2015 06:35 AM
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msm96wolf Offline
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Post: #9
RE: The logical end game
Unless conferences go to 18 or 20 teams, I don't see the ACC taking 4.

ACC Dream Scenario - Get Texas and have ND join full time to be at 16. Use Longhorn network to create ACC Network.
If ND refuses. Then Texas and Oklahoma.

If Texas Refuses
Some combination of the two TCU, BAYLOR, Kansas St or OSU. My prediction would be OSU and Baylor. That would be a good mix with Baylor fitting in with Miami, BC, Wake and Duke type schools and OSU fitting in with VT, NCSU, UNC, CLEMSON and FSU state schools.
08-10-2015 07:44 AM
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Nebraskafan Offline
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Post: #10
RE: The logical end game
People keep saying the other Big 12 teams have to be absorbed by the other conferences. I disagree. The last option would be for them to be absorbed. That is a complex mess that the school Presidents will do everything they can to avoid.

1) Oklahoma wants out. That we know. But if their conference does expand, the conference will most likely stay as is just without Oklahoma and Texas - if Texas left.

2) BYU as a football only member isn't a bad addition. Then you add in a school like UCF that has potential and has done some good things on the field over the years.

3) UH use to be the SWC back in the day. Why not have them join the big schools again and have them recruit the Houston area as a P5 school?
08-10-2015 08:17 AM
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bullet Offline
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Post: #11
RE: The logical end game
(08-10-2015 08:17 AM)Nebraskafan Wrote:  People keep saying the other Big 12 teams have to be absorbed by the other conferences. I disagree. The last option would be for them to be absorbed. That is a complex mess that the school Presidents will do everything they can to avoid.

1) Oklahoma wants out. That we know. But if their conference does expand, the conference will most likely stay as is just without Oklahoma and Texas - if Texas left.

2) BYU as a football only member isn't a bad addition. Then you add in a school like UCF that has potential and has done some good things on the field over the years.

3) UH use to be the SWC back in the day. Why not have them join the big schools again and have them recruit the Houston area as a P5 school?

Actually the only thing we "know" is that OU's president Boren says he wants the Big 12 to expand. That, and, most of the posters on Land Thieves want out. Neither Boren nor any reporters close to the program have given any indication that OU wants anything other than simply expansion.
08-10-2015 08:20 AM
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MplsBison Offline
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Post: #12
RE: The logical end game
(08-10-2015 12:03 AM)33laszlo99 Wrote:  Great news for the PAC. They finally fulfill their dream of cracking the Lubbock market, along with Ames, Manhattan and Stillwater. A goldmine, for sure.

LOL!!

Gotta have the Central timezone! What a goldmine! All those plains states, agriculture fans will fit right in with Seattle, Portland, Bay Area and LA fans!
(This post was last modified: 08-10-2015 08:37 AM by MplsBison.)
08-10-2015 08:37 AM
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MplsBison Offline
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Post: #13
RE: The logical end game
(08-10-2015 08:20 AM)bullet Wrote:  
(08-10-2015 08:17 AM)Nebraskafan Wrote:  People keep saying the other Big 12 teams have to be absorbed by the other conferences. I disagree. The last option would be for them to be absorbed. That is a complex mess that the school Presidents will do everything they can to avoid.

1) Oklahoma wants out. That we know. But if their conference does expand, the conference will most likely stay as is just without Oklahoma and Texas - if Texas left.

2) BYU as a football only member isn't a bad addition. Then you add in a school like UCF that has potential and has done some good things on the field over the years.

3) UH use to be the SWC back in the day. Why not have them join the big schools again and have them recruit the Houston area as a P5 school?

Actually the only thing we "know" is that OU's president Boren says he wants the Big 12 to expand. That, and, most of the posters on Land Thieves want out. Neither Boren nor any reporters close to the program have given any indication that OU wants anything other than simply expansion.

Expansion with the "right" programs, you mean.
08-10-2015 08:38 AM
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bearcatfan1211 Offline
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Post: #14
RE: The logical end game
(08-09-2015 10:20 PM)swardy76 Wrote:  Thanks H1, JR and others on their ideas on how this all goes down. Based on the following assumptions here is how I think this ends.

Assumptions in no particular order:

OU and KU will go as a pair
TX will not go to the B1G or SEC
All 10 teams in the BIG XII need to be placed
The PAC (and probably the ACC) will need to take 4 if they take any
OU will only go to the B1G or SEC
The B1G will only accept KU, OU, TX, and maybe ISU
The SEC will only accept OU, KU, TX, and maybe WVU
The PAC needs markets/timezones and must get into Texas.
ESPN needs to create more value

Conclusion:

OU and KU will go to the SEC.
The ACC takes WVU, TCU, BU, and TT/Houston
The PAC takes OSU, KSU, ISU, and TT/Houston
TX goes independent with the ACC

Reasons:

RRR becomes an ACC/SEC product (ESPN)
TX/ND becomes an ACC product (ESPN)
The PAC gets their timezones and gets TX
WVU/PITT restored (ESPN)
TX/aTm restored (ESPN)
OU/OSU and KU/KSU become SEC products (home years) (ESPN)
The B1G is shutout

The ACC then organizes into pods of 3 plus a rival and plays a 9 game schedule

Pods of 3 (2+1+6)

WVU
UL
VT

BC
SU
PITT

UVA
UNC
Duke

WF
Miami
FSA

TT
TCU
Baylor

GT
NCST
CU

Rivals
WVU-PITT
VT-UVA
UNC-NCST
Duke-GT
CU-FSU
BC-WF
UM-BU
TCU-SU
UL-TT

or Pods of 6 (5+2+2)

BC
Syracuse
PITT
WVU
UL
VT

UVA
UNC
Duke
GT
NCST
Clemson

WF
Miami
FSU
TT
TCU
Baylor

In both cases have Texas and ND play 6 games plus one against each other for 7 ACC games. The winner of the TX/ND will have a path to the playoffs if they are ranked higher.

Man what rivalries these will be after the many, many years of hatred built up between the schools 03-confused
08-10-2015 09:53 AM
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5thTiger Offline
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Post: #15
RE: The logical end game
Why would the Pac and the SEC take the leftovers if OU and KU went to the B1G while Texas to the ACC?

Assuming that is what the B1G and ACC want. Which is a stretch.
08-10-2015 10:48 AM
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BruceMcF Online
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Post: #16
RE: The logical end game
"All 10 teams in the BIG XII need to be placed"

This assumption is one of the ones that removes it from the realm of reality. No matter how tight the logic, when its based on a counter-factual assumption, the conclusion has not persuasive weight.
08-10-2015 11:11 AM
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Post: #17
RE: The logical end game
(08-09-2015 10:20 PM)swardy76 Wrote:  Thanks H1, JR and others on their ideas on how this all goes down. Based on the following assumptions here is how I think this ends.

Assumptions in no particular order:

OU and KU will go as a pair
TX will not go to the B1G or SEC
All 10 teams in the BIG XII need to be placed
The PAC (and probably the ACC) will need to take 4 if they take any
OU will only go to the B1G or SEC
The B1G will only accept KU, OU, TX, and maybe ISU
The SEC will only accept OU, KU, TX, and maybe WVU
The PAC needs markets/timezones and must get into Texas.
ESPN needs to create more value

Conclusion:

OU and KU will go to the SEC.
The ACC takes WVU, TCU, BU, and TT/Houston
The PAC takes OSU, KSU, ISU, and TT/Houston
TX goes independent with the ACC

Reasons:

RRR becomes an ACC/SEC product (ESPN)
TX/ND becomes an ACC product (ESPN)
The PAC gets their timezones and gets TX
WVU/PITT restored (ESPN)
TX/aTm restored (ESPN)
OU/OSU and KU/KSU become SEC products (home years) (ESPN)
The B1G is shutout

The ACC then organizes into pods of 3 plus a rival and plays a 9 game schedule

Pods of 3 (2+1+6)

WVU
UL
VT

BC
SU
PITT

UVA
UNC
Duke

WF
Miami
FSA

TT
TCU
Baylor

GT
NCST
CU

Rivals
WVU-PITT
VT-UVA
UNC-NCST
Duke-GT
CU-FSU
BC-WF
UM-BU
TCU-SU
UL-TT

or Pods of 6 (5+2+2)

BC
Syracuse
PITT
WVU
UL
VT

UVA
UNC
Duke
GT
NCST
Clemson

WF
Miami
FSU
TT
TCU
Baylor

In both cases have Texas and ND play 6 games plus one against each other for 7 ACC games. The winner of the TX/ND will have a path to the playoffs if they are ranked higher.

I'm finding it very hard to imagine a worse scenario than for either the ACC or the PAC 12 that doesn't involve adding a bunch of weak G5 programs. Why would either of them do such a thing?
08-10-2015 12:27 PM
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allthatyoucantleavebehind Offline
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Post: #18
RE: The logical end game
(08-09-2015 10:20 PM)swardy76 Wrote:  Thanks H1, JR and others on their ideas on how this all goes down. Based on the following assumptions here is how I think this ends.

Assumptions in no particular order:

OU and KU will go as a pair
TX will not go to the B1G or SEC
All 10 teams in the BIG XII need to be placed
The PAC (and probably the ACC) will need to take 4 if they take any
OU will only go to the B1G or SEC
The B1G will only accept KU, OU, TX, and maybe ISU
The SEC will only accept OU, KU, TX, and maybe WVU
The PAC needs markets/timezones and must get into Texas.
ESPN needs to create more value

You were doing all right here at the beginning of your thread...but then it just all fell apart.

My biggest objections?
1. Iowa State to the Big Ten? Never. Sad to say, but ISU is the lowest man on the Big 12 totem pole. I feel largely confident in assigning this pecking order (when considering academics, athletics, and geographical market).

Texas
OU
KU
OkSt
Baylor
TCU
Tech
WVU (maybe a better national brand than the 3 Texas schools but the Texas schools have geography in their favor)
Kansas State
Iowa State

I still don't know why SEC fans aren't interested in OkSt (if the top 3 above were somehow not available).

2. The Big 12 schools all need landing spots. I think the top 5 above should find a spot, but the next 5 are going to need some luck. Kansas State and Iowa State are going to need a miracle, if you ask me.
08-10-2015 01:14 PM
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allthatyoucantleavebehind Offline
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RE: The logical end game
Try on this "end game"...

OU and Kansas become a bidding war for the Big Ten, Pac-12, and SEC.

If the SEC loses, they take two other strong Big 12 entities (WVU, Baylor, OkSt?) to go to 16.
If the Big Ten loses, they go after Texas (who is now "free" because OU/Kansas destroyed the Big 12..not them!) and UConn. If they can't get Texas, they stay at 14.

If the Pac-12 can get Texas, they also take Texas Tech, OkSt, and KState. If they can't get Texas, the Pac-12 stands pat at 12...because no matter HOW much they want into Texas, they won't settle for LESS than Texas in the Pac.

So...if the SEC wins OU and Kansas, then the Big 12 scrubs better hope that Texas doesn't go Big Ten but wants to go to the Pac and take some along. 6 of the 10 could find homes...but ISU, TCU, Baylor, and WVU would be left without homes, in addition to BYU, Cincy, UConn, and other AAC/MWC schools. If Texas goes Big Ten (with OU and Kansas in SEC), then there will be a lot of homeless Big 12 schools.
08-10-2015 01:27 PM
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He1nousOne Offline
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RE: The logical end game
(08-10-2015 10:48 AM)5thTiger Wrote:  Why would the Pac and the SEC take the leftovers if OU and KU went to the B1G while Texas to the ACC?

Assuming that is what the B1G and ACC want. Which is a stretch.

Because the SEC already agreed to take whom the SEC decided they should take when they got their SEC Network.

Why would the PAC? Because they are at a propagandic disadvantage when it comes to potential viewership. They need Central Time Zone locations to show off all of their programs during the early kick off slot.
They tried to get the top schools in the big 12 and they failed. Now they will have to take what they can get and get a good pay day out of it for allowing this to all happen now instead of ten years from now.

Ten years from now the PAC will still have the same choice to make but they will have much less leverage with the likes of ESPN and PAC.

Either folks understand that or they don't want to. In the end, it doesn't matter if you do or don't.
08-10-2015 06:23 PM
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