(07-30-2015 06:32 PM)toddjnsn Wrote:  YES, BYU and Army are, too. It has to do with your schedule. As with ANYONE else.

If you ARE in a conference, you need to win the conference title. Independents DON'T have to do that.

However, at the same time, they don't have a 13th Conference Title game -- like the non-divisional conference B12. So that hurts them, as that game 99.9% of the time is going to enhance one's SoS. So it's a pro AND a con.

For the BCS Bowl games, BYU cannot qualify in the automatic G5 bid because they're not in a conference -- so THAT is where it hurts them. But it has no bearing on making the playoffs, whether they became P5 like Notre Dame or not. Making it to the playoffs is a different story, and there's no difference between Notre Dame and BYU's eligibility.

If anything, BYU has a Slight ADVANTAGE to making the playoff VS other G5s. They have more control over their SoS to be over the top of Boise and others.

BYU 2015:
@Nebraska
Boise State (MW & G5 Champion; Won BCS Bowl)
@UCLA (favored to be P12 divisional champs this year)
@Michigan (Will be better than last year)
UConn
East Carolina (Top AAC team)
Cincinnati (Top AAC team)
Wagner*
@San Jose
@Missouri (SEC Divisional Champs)
Fresno State
@Utah State (MW Divisional Champs)

That's a pretty tough schedule. If they go 12-0, they most likely won't go though. They'd need Missouri to win the SEC, Michigan to be an 8+ win team and take out Ohio State, Nebraska to make it to the B10 champ game, UCLA go to go to the P12 champ game, Utah State to go to the MW Champ game again, and Boise to be Boise again, while ECU or Cinci to win the AAC, with the other right behind. If that happens -- yeah, they'd make the playoffs. :)

Other G5s who Could make the playoffs if Undefeated, with Miracles involved:

WESTERN MICHIGAN (13-0 example):
MSU [With Only Losses to WMU and OSU; Beats P12 Champ Oregon; 10-2]
@GA-Southern [Wins Sun-Belt and beats @WVirgina B12 Contenders & @Georgia SEC contender; 11-1]
@Ohio State [Wins B10; Beats ACC Divisional Champ @VATech; Only losses to WMU & NIU; 11-2]
BGSU [Wins MAC East + wins @Tenn, Memphis, @Purdue; 11-2 only losses to WMU twice]
Ball State [Wins @TexasAM, @Northwestern; 9-3 losses to @WMU, @NIU, Toledo]
@Toledo [Wins @Arkansas, Iowa State; 9-3 losses to WMU, NIU, @BGSU]
@NIU [Wins @OSU, @Boston College, @Toledo; 11-1 Only Loss to WMU]
BGSU (title game) [Wins MAC East + wins @Tenn, Memphis, @Purdue, Toledo; 11-2 only loses to WMU twice]

Given ALL those things in place, yes, WMU would have a good chance to go. That's what it'd be like for a G5 team with a Tough schedule to make the playoffs. In other words, don't count on it by any means, as it requires the opponents to rise big at the same time. :)

I disagree with you.
I think "all" it would take is a G5 team to run the table and beat two "top tier" P5 teams along the way, especially if one of them is top-ten caliber.

WMU and BYU don't really need any other "help" from their opponents. I'd say over half of the G5 has a schedule set up so that 13-0 almost certainly puts them in the playoff.
BYU would be in the conversation at 11-1.
We don't realize this because the G5's most likely to make it through to 7-0,8-0,etc each year are the same ones with weaker schedules.
I fully expect for a G5 team to break through and make the playoff with a perfect record in the next 5 years. We'll see, we don't really have a good test case yet.

Quote:BYU would be in the conversation at 11-1.

Possibly, but I doubt it. OSU had to be 12-1 (winning B10 conf champ game stomping Wisconsin) at 1 loss to be in the conversation. BYU coming short of that 13th game would hurt them to allow 1 loss. It's possible, if their schedule pans out well. ND being short of that 13th game hurts them, too. But unfortunately ND gets bias in their direction, so places would be more allowing of ND to get in than BYU VS P5-Conf-winners, if BYU & ND each had the same level of SoS in their times w/ 1 loss.

I will say that in my example of WMU this year with their very tough SoS, it wouldn't necessarily need to have their opponents to pan out that well to be part of the conversation @13-0. But to surely get in, the dominoes would need to fall pretty close to that as far as their competition rolls. BYU would need some help getting in @12-0.

G5 Conf Champ or BYU getting into a playoff:
- Undefeated with tough P5-level SoS, including 2 ranked P5 teams
- Other P5 playoff contenders otherwise getting in having 2 losses

Because basically it's saying: You're ranked in the Top 4 in the Country.

(07-30-2015 06:32 PM)toddjnsn Wrote:  If anything, BYU has a Slight ADVANTAGE to making the playoff VS other G5s. They have more control over their SoS to be over the top of Boise and others.

BYU 2015:
@Nebraska
Boise State (MW & G5 Champion; Won BCS Bowl)
@UCLA (favored to be P12 divisional champs this year)
@Michigan (Will be better than last year)
UConn
East Carolina (Top AAC team)
Cincinnati (Top AAC team)
Wagner*
@San Jose
@Missouri (SEC Divisional Champs)
Fresno State
@Utah State (MW Divisional Champs)

That's a pretty tough schedule. If they go 12-0, they most likely won't go though. They'd need Missouri to win the SEC, Michigan to be an 8+ win team and take out Ohio State, Nebraska to make it to the B10 champ game, UCLA go to go to the P12 champ game, Utah State to go to the MW Champ game again, and Boise to be Boise again, while ECU or Cinci to win the AAC, with the other right behind. If that happens -- yeah, they'd make the playoffs. :)

I think there's a tacit assumption of four strong P5 champions and setting up a scenario where they are still inarguably going to be picked.

But just go 12-0, they are in the mix, and odds on with a stronger case than one P5 champion ... at which point it only needs a break on a second P5 champion with a flawed resume to get in the CFP, without any particular miracles required in its own undefeated season.

(07-30-2015 05:12 PM)Wedge Wrote:  

(07-30-2015 04:55 PM)Chappy Wrote:  If the NCAA actually controlled the postseason and had an actual playoff

... then the NCAA would skim most of the money off the top and stash it away or use it to pay NCAA overhead just like they do with the March Madness money.

... maybe then they could hire some competent investigators so the could enforce the rules properly. I'd rather the NCAA skim money off the top than the antiquated bowls disguised as non-profits.

I don't really have a problem with the NCAA keeping the necessary funds to do their jobs. I have a problem with the fact that they keep the necessary money to do their jobs...then suck so badly at their jobs.

g-5 is not getting in the playoff. Look at what FSU had to do to get in last year and they still barely got in going undefeated. I do not see that happening.

(07-30-2015 10:40 PM)Okielite Wrote:  g-5 is not getting in the playoff. Look at what FSU had to do to get in last year and they still barely got in going undefeated. I do not see that happening.

I will qualify what I wrote about BYU going 12-0 ... if they do it with as many late wobbles and unconvincing wins as FSU had, before they were ultimately uncovered as being more lucky than great, yeah, they'd have a lot harder time than a P5 conference champion.

(07-30-2015 04:46 PM)TerryD Wrote:  

(07-30-2015 04:44 PM)DavidSt Wrote:  It was not just coaches saying Independents join a conference, but people at tv networks calling for them to join. Ginving Notre Dame a favortism or a pass like they are a special needs child does not work as fairness as well. Why not give all colleges independent status, and do away with realignment and all that for conferences.

I agree with you. I think that conferences should be abolished, every school should be independent and have to set its own schedules and snare its own individual TV deals.

some schools could actually be independents, but others would not athletically survive if no conference existed. I can see Texas, Ohio State, 'Bama, USC, FSU, Stanford, Michigan, Washington, Georgia, Clemson, Florida, Cal, Oregon, UCLA, Auburn, UNC, VT, PSU, TAMU, Nebraska, LSU, and other schools like them making it as an indy, but there are other schools like Washington State, Mississippi State, and Wake Forest who I have my doubts as to how they would perform or get games as an indy.

(07-30-2015 05:30 PM)Rabbit_in_Red Wrote:  Notre Dame joining a conference is inevitability. When we've whittled things down from a P5 to a P4, they'll be in a conference. That's just how this is going to shake down.

Which is precisely why it will never happen. People expecting this to break into a neat, tidy four divisions of 16 teams are going to be sorely disappointed. Nothing in the history of that sport has been neat or tidy and that is not going to change now.

As for these coaches insisting that Notre Dame join a conference to make things more NFL-like, in the NFL teams don't get the play cupcakes. Are they willing to forgo all of the cupcakes? Are they willing to play an equal number of home and away games? I think they want to pick and choose where they're like the NFL.

(07-30-2015 05:09 PM)DavidSt Wrote:  

(07-30-2015 04:55 PM)Chappy Wrote:  As long as the elite bowls control college's plus-one model, Notre Dame will have access because Notre Dame brings eyeballs and that's what they want.

If the NCAA actually controlled the postseason and had an actual playoff, there might be a need to join a conference... but they'd probably be okay with independents too.

I think some schools could go Independent like BYU who do draw eyeballs should be treated like Notre Dame as well.

UCF, Rice, BYU, Boise State, San Diego State, Northern Illinois, U.Conn, Navy, Fresno State, SMU and Air Force. Maybe Houston as well when they drew 4.4 tv ratings in their C-USA title match against Southern Mississippi.

No way NIU, San Diego St, Fresno State, Rice could survive as an independent.

Houston, Boise State, Air Force, Army, Navy, UCONN, UCF, USF, Cincinnati, Memphis, SMU, and East Carolina could all do it if need be but they want.

You have to remeber East Carolina had it's own tv contract with ESPN when it was an independent. I do not think any other G5 school now has done that except BYU.

Memphis could schedule pretty well and get some SEC teams to play in the Liberty Bowl and use their basketball team to get more football games.

UCONN could do the same as Memphis.

Air Force, Army, and Navy would be fine.

Cincinnati would do the same Memphis

SMU and Houston could get teams who just need to play in Texas and Texas schools that want to play in Texas more.

UCF and USF would be the same as SMU and Houston but with Florida as there reasoning.

San Diego State might get away with it with their basketball and teams wanting to play in San Diego.

East Carolina did it in the past and got an ESPN contract. We could probably schedule NC schools like UNC, State, Duke, Wake, App, and Charlotte who would want to play ECU to get the return game to guarantee a sale out for one their home games. Then add a VT, WVU, Maryland etc who want to play in NC. But our problem would come down to playing against SEC teams and not having a balanced schedule.

For schools like Liberty, it appears to provide a legal challenge to the current NCAA rules. Basically you can't become FBS unless you join a league, however the FBS allows for Independent Status but no way for an FCS team to become one of the independents. It seems Liberty would have the money to challenge the NCAA as to being excluded. One reason I think the NCAA will have to offer a window for FCS teams to decide if they want to move up to FBS. Not that they would be part of this CFP but probably included in the next CFP or if the CFP expands to 8 before the current contract. Who knows they may even throw some crumbs if they allow some teams to move up in the next 3-5 years.

There special! I told ya. CFB royalty.



Still getting that pot of gold. Ain't he cute?