I would argue post-season computer ratings aren't that accurate either.

After all these new rankings got thrown in, the Huskies have stuck at 55. Here are NIU's opponents composited Massey rankings

#122 UNLV
n/a Murray St
#1 Ohio State
#56 Boston College
#92 Central Michigan
#91 Ball State
#124 Miami-OH
#128 Eastern Michigan
#61 Toledo
#102 Buffalo
#78 Western Michigan
#95 Ohio

The two teams in the country that the computers are most confused where to place, i.e. the highest standard deviation in all the rankings, are NIU and Air Force. I guess you could look at that as a bad or good thing.

In terms of that whole MAC vs AAC debate, the MAC has 6 teams in the bottom 29 and the AAC has 5 teams in the bottom 30. Pretty close.

(08-24-2015 03:04 PM)MaddDawgz02 Wrote:  After all these new rankings got thrown in, the Huskies have stuck at 55. Here are NIU's opponents composited Massey rankings

#122 UNLV
n/a Murray St
#1 Ohio State
#56 Boston College
#92 Central Michigan
#91 Ball State
#124 Miami-OH
#128 Eastern Michigan
#61 Toledo
#102 Buffalo
#78 Western Michigan
#95 Ohio

The two teams in the country that the computers are most confused where to place, i.e. the highest standard deviation in all the rankings, are NIU and Air Force. I guess you could look at that as a bad or good thing.

In terms of that whole MAC vs AAC debate, the MAC has 6 teams in the bottom 29 and the AAC has 5 teams in the bottom 30. Pretty close.

Based on this #55 NIU and #56 BC should be a good game

The computers did not like NIU's showing vs UNLV, Huskies drop to #63, clinging to top half of FBS. Still ahead of Toledo for best in the MAC by 4 slots though.

http://masseyratings.com/cf/compare.htm

Illness is AHEAD of us. Ugh.

(09-08-2015 09:55 PM)NIUAlum90 Wrote:  Illness is AHEAD of us. Ugh.

To be fair, they did just beat a team that NIU once lost to....of course the last time they lost to Kent State was 2001.

(07-21-2015 03:01 AM)MaddDawgz02 Wrote:  For composite rankings this is not so bad, although I'd expect NIU to drop a few more spots as more come in. What is interesting of all the computer rankings so far only 3 other teams in the nation have a larger spread or standard deviation than the Huskies. In other words, the computers do not know where to put NIU it seems like.

http://masseyratings.com/cf/compare.htm

Largest standard deviations:

1) Georgia Southern - ranked anywhere from 46 to 91
2) Memphis - ranked anywhere from 31 to 75
3) Iowa State - ranked anywhere from 72 to 117
4) Northern Illinois - ranked anywhere from 35 to 78


Rankings of NIU's opponents:

UNLV #121
Murray St --
Ohio State #1
Boston College #48 (pretty impressive computer rankings for BC)
CMU #92tie
BSU #92tie
Miami #122
EMU #127
Toledo #64
Buffalo #111
WMU #84
Ohio #96


Here are Massey's simulated results for NIU this year (keep in mind Massey's NIU ranking was the lowest of all the composites). Massey has NIU going 9-3 with losses @ Ohio State (46-17), @ Boston College (34-24), and @ Toledo (34-31). Two games with lowest probability of a win include @ Ohio State (3% chance) and @ Boston College (23% chance). Two games with best chances of an NIU victory include vs Murray State (98% chance) and vs EMU (94% chance). Couple of close calls predicted in wins though including vs WMU (33-28) and @ CMU (30-27). Overall no big surprises, I think these kind of results are what most expect this year. Given those fairly closewins, 8-4 is probably more realistic than 9-3 as you would have to expect at least one of the WMU and CMU games to go to the opposition.

http://masseyratings.com/team.php?t=5634&s=279541

So basically, NIU has a 1 in 30 chance vs OSU, 1 in 4 chance vs. BC.

Wonder if there is a some formula with this to come up with a pts/money line? NIU +30 vs OSU, +10 vs. BC.

Seeing how they put only 24 on Maine, I'd like that +10 vs BC. About a +300, +350 ML? Not happening. +30 vs OSU is pretty accurate. Maybe more.

(09-09-2015 04:00 PM)randyfensfanclub1 Wrote:  

(07-21-2015 03:01 AM)MaddDawgz02 Wrote:  For composite rankings this is not so bad, although I'd expect NIU to drop a few more spots as more come in. What is interesting of all the computer rankings so far only 3 other teams in the nation have a larger spread or standard deviation than the Huskies. In other words, the computers do not know where to put NIU it seems like.

http://masseyratings.com/cf/compare.htm

Largest standard deviations:

1) Georgia Southern - ranked anywhere from 46 to 91
2) Memphis - ranked anywhere from 31 to 75
3) Iowa State - ranked anywhere from 72 to 117
4) Northern Illinois - ranked anywhere from 35 to 78


Rankings of NIU's opponents:

UNLV #121
Murray St --
Ohio State #1
Boston College #48 (pretty impressive computer rankings for BC)
CMU #92tie
BSU #92tie
Miami #122
EMU #127
Toledo #64
Buffalo #111
WMU #84
Ohio #96


Here are Massey's simulated results for NIU this year (keep in mind Massey's NIU ranking was the lowest of all the composites). Massey has NIU going 9-3 with losses @ Ohio State (46-17), @ Boston College (34-24), and @ Toledo (34-31). Two games with lowest probability of a win include @ Ohio State (3% chance) and @ Boston College (23% chance). Two games with best chances of an NIU victory include vs Murray State (98% chance) and vs EMU (94% chance). Couple of close calls predicted in wins though including vs WMU (33-28) and @ CMU (30-27). Overall no big surprises, I think these kind of results are what most expect this year. Given those fairly closewins, 8-4 is probably more realistic than 9-3 as you would have to expect at least one of the WMU and CMU games to go to the opposition.

http://masseyratings.com/team.php?t=5634&s=279541

So basically, NIU has a 1 in 30 chance vs OSU, 1 in 4 chance vs. BC.

Wonder if there is a some formula with this to come up with a pts/money line? NIU +30 vs OSU, +10 vs. BC.

Seeing how they put only 24 on Maine, I'd like that +10 vs BC. About a +300, +350 ML? Not happening. +30 vs OSU is pretty accurate. Maybe more.

Each game dropped a percent, so now 2% chance of beating OSU and 22% chance of beating BC

(08-24-2015 03:04 PM)MaddDawgz02 Wrote:  After all these new rankings got thrown in, the Huskies have stuck at 55. Here are NIU's opponents composited Massey rankings

#122 UNLV
n/a Murray St
#1 Ohio State
#56 Boston College
#92 Central Michigan
#91 Ball State
#124 Miami-OH
#128 Eastern Michigan
#61 Toledo
#102 Buffalo
#78 Western Michigan
#95 Ohio

The two teams in the country that the computers are most confused where to place, i.e. the highest standard deviation in all the rankings, are NIU and Air Force. I guess you could look at that as a bad or good thing.

In terms of that whole MAC vs AAC debate, the MAC has 6 teams in the bottom 29 and the AAC has 5 teams in the bottom 30. Pretty close.

Now don't start acting like this is the only part of the argument, son. You know it's not. I see your passive aggressive jabs.

Now through 2 games and here is how the MAC composite rankings stack up

41 Toledo
65 Northern Illinois
68 Ohio
76 Bowling Green
91 Western Michigan
98 Central Michigan
100 Ball State
102 Buffalo
113 Akron
118 Kent State
119 Massachusetts
121 Eastern Michigan

The most dominant MAC West now only with half of the top 4 teams, Bowling Green and Ohio really coming on obviously. One 1 MAC team in the top half of FBS unfortunately.

Early Massey projections have NIU opening as a 10 pt dog @ BC, with a projected score of 34-24 Eagles.

These rankings are pointless but since MD brought it up...here's your current MAC vs AAC update...

The MAC has 8 teams in the bottom 37 while the AAC has 4 in the bottom 36. The AAC also has 5 teams that are ranked ahead of NIU. The AAC is ranked as the 7th best conference while the MAC is 10th, ahead of only the Sun Belt. Hooray for pointless week 2 rankings and wild speculation about conference realignment.

(09-17-2015 04:36 PM)armour248 Wrote:  These rankings are pointless but since MD brought it up...here's your current MAC vs AAC update...

The MAC has 8 teams in the bottom 37 while the AAC has 4 in the bottom 36. The AAC also has 5 teams that are ranked ahead of NIU. The AAC is ranked as the 7th best conference while the MAC is 10th, ahead of only the Sun Belt. Hooray for pointless week 2 rankings and wild speculation about conference realignment.

I think it will take some time , maybe a 4 game Louisville losing streak, for people to realize that this is not the T. Bridgewater led Louisville Cardinals, until then Houston for the CFP! The giantkillers of the AAC!

(09-17-2015 04:42 PM)MaddDawgz02 Wrote:  

(09-17-2015 04:36 PM)armour248 Wrote:  These rankings are pointless but since MD brought it up...here's your current MAC vs AAC update...

The MAC has 8 teams in the bottom 37 while the AAC has 4 in the bottom 36. The AAC also has 5 teams that are ranked ahead of NIU. The AAC is ranked as the 7th best conference while the MAC is 10th, ahead of only the Sun Belt. Hooray for pointless week 2 rankings and wild speculation about conference realignment.

I think it will take some time , maybe a 4 game Louisville losing streak, for people to realize that this is not the T. Bridgewater led Louisville Cardinals, until then Houston for the CFP! The giantkillers of the AAC!

Louisville is in the ACC now....

(09-17-2015 10:25 PM)HuskiePride12 Wrote:  

(09-17-2015 04:42 PM)MaddDawgz02 Wrote:  

(09-17-2015 04:36 PM)armour248 Wrote:  These rankings are pointless but since MD brought it up...here's your current MAC vs AAC update...

The MAC has 8 teams in the bottom 37 while the AAC has 4 in the bottom 36. The AAC also has 5 teams that are ranked ahead of NIU. The AAC is ranked as the 7th best conference while the MAC is 10th, ahead of only the Sun Belt. Hooray for pointless week 2 rankings and wild speculation about conference realignment.

I think it will take some time , maybe a 4 game Louisville losing streak, for people to realize that this is not the T. Bridgewater led Louisville Cardinals, until then Houston for the CFP! The giantkillers of the AAC!

Louisville is in the ACC now....

I know, its just Houston is getting all this credit for beating Louisville. Eventually , I hope people realize Louisville is not that good, it might take them going 0-6 before people wake up though.