RE: What happens If....
JR, I may be going a bit off topic but if balance is what is desired, I have another alignment arrangement for the board to consider.
The end result looks like this, and I'll explain how we get there:
The ACC adds Texas, Baylor, ND as full-time, UConn, Cincinnati and Texas Tech - and lets VT and NC State leave (18 teams)
The SEC adds NC State and West Virginia (16 teams)
The B1G adds Virginia Tech, Kansas, Oklahoma and Iowa State (18 teams)
The PAC stays pat, or expands if it desires (12-16 teams)
Texas makes the first move, going to the ACC and taking Baylor (or Tech if you prefer). The Big 12 is toast at that point and all other Big 12 teams scramble for the exits, Kansas, Oklahoma and Iowa State approach the B1G, and all of the Big 12 schools, except Kansas, approach the SEC.
ESPN and Fox wind up brokering a solution to place as many teams as possible and their solution involves having the ACC release Virginia Tech and NC State. ESPN and the ACC are willing to do so because neither are necessary to get full carriage for an ACCn in their states, UVA in Virginia and UNC/Duke in North Carolina assure full carriage on cable. Dropping two teams will enable the ACC to pick up teams in other states and areas, boosting coverage (and profitability) of an ACCn.
Kansas and Oklahoma decide to go B1G. The networks convince the B1G to add Iowa St, even though the B1G is very much opposed to doubling up in Iowa, by making VT available as Iowa St's partner in joining. VT is not AAU, but they are a top notch engineering school, have a large alumni base and otherwise fit the B1G profile. The B1G agrees to add all 4 and go to a 6 team, three division format.
The SEC is not happy that Oklahoma chose the B1G, but the networks offer NC State as a choice prize. It gets the SEC into North Carolina, a state the SEC covets, and prevents any further expansion south by the B1G. In addition, the SEC gets its choice of any other Big 12 school to add as its 16th member. The SEC considers Tech (or Baylor), TCU, OSU and WVU and chooses WVU because it gives them somewhat of a presence in Virginia and Eastern Ohio, and they don't feel the need to bolster the SEC presence in Texas.
With the B1G and SEC full of teams, and future poaching of the ACC unlikely, the ACC twists ND's arm to join full-time. ND knows the B1G, SEC and PAC will not let it be a partial member. ND doesn't want the PAC (travel and timezone issues) or the SEC (not a cultural fit). Between the B1G (and the history of conflict/occasional bad blood with ND) and the ACC (which provides the east coast exposure ND wants), ND chooses to join the ACC.
At that point, the ACC is at 15 teams after all the additions and deletions. ESPN whispers in the ACC's ear that an NYC presence would be most attractive, so the ACC adds UConn. The football schools, FSU and Clemson, are OK with that, because they now have Texas and, in a P4 structure where the playoffs almost certainly consist of conference champions, the strength of the conference is less important. To give the network an even broader reach, the ACC adds Cincinnati (which ND likes because it recruits Cincinnati heavily) and to provide conference teams with more recruiting exposure in Texas, the ACC adds Texas Tech (or Baylor if Tech came along with Texas initially).
The result is 4 relatively balanced conferences, with the geographic scope that will support conference networks. With the ACC, SEC and B1G at 16 or 18, the conferences adopt conference semi-final games, and the CFP is essentially expanded to 14 teams with the semi-final and final conference championships being de-facto playoff games.
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