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Stan Druckenmiller speaks about the economy 4/24/15
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gobaseline Offline
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Stan Druckenmiller speaks about the economy 4/24/15
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/videos/201...ore-04-24-

Balance sheet Recession
The Fed and QE and what that actually means
Looking ahead
Greece

Nothing guaranteed but very interesting. For a non-finance guy I found this easy to follow, interesting and challenging to look further and learn more.

I stumbled on this channel surfing. So again, not an original idea.

Edit: Finished watching. Interest additional comments on ...
The strengthening of the dollar and it's impact?
Student loans and lack of repayment. Is it the next sub-prime bubble?
- When did you know the sub-prime was the ticking time bomb it proved to be? Reaction? Action? Correlation to student loan non-repayment?

Again, interesting to this pea brain.
(This post was last modified: 07-11-2015 01:03 PM by gobaseline.)
07-11-2015 12:53 PM
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Chipdip2 Offline
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RE: Stan Druckenmiller speaks about the economy 4/24/15
It will only happen if the producers demand that the non-producers cut their entitlements. But by then the voting block of non-producers will likely outnumber the producers.

It won't be on a Greek scale but at some point the debt is unsustainable and bad things will happen.
07-12-2015 08:39 AM
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ESSSS Offline
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RE: Stan Druckenmiller speaks about the economy 4/24/15
It's a strange world that we live in.

This guy "worries", without being able to give a specific explanation of why.

Austrian economic theory can and does explain why people should worry.

Austrian economists are ignored because their warnings/predictions haven't happened yet. As if anyone can predict EXACTLY when economic chaos will occur.

Economic shifts of this magnitude takes years, decades, etc to play themselves out.

For some reason, people pay lip service to the idea that monopolies and price fixing are bad. But it is overlooked when the Federal Reserve exercises a monopoly on the creation of money, and fixes prices on the cost of money.

People say that central planning of an economy is bad. What is it that our current system is attempting to do?

Hoping/assuming that things will be fine because they have always been fine is not a sound plan.

The laws of economics don't cease to exist because we wish them to, and actions have consequences.

How does it make sense to "fix" an economy that has problems caused by too much debt by borrowing more?

We continue to kick that can.

Keep your fingers crossed.
07-12-2015 10:22 AM
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Cucumber Salad Offline
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RE: Stan Druckenmiller speaks about the economy 4/24/15
Reportedly consumer consumption drives 70% of GDP, if I understand correctly.

I marveled listening to Wall Street types bemoaning not seeing that increased contribution when gas prices dropped. Reports were common folk were trying to pay down personal debt and save. I understand the WS perspective but can't help wonder how they and the fed don't see the correlation between using that "breather" to get out from under the weight of piling debt.
07-12-2015 11:47 AM
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rtletterman Offline
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RE: Stan Druckenmiller speaks about the economy 4/24/15
(07-12-2015 11:47 AM)Cucumber Salad Wrote:  Reportedly consumer consumption drives 70% of GDP, if I understand correctly.

I marveled listening to Wall Street types bemoaning not seeing that increased contribution when gas prices dropped. Reports were common folk were trying to pay down personal debt and save. I understand the WS perspective but can't help wonder how they and the fed don't see the correlation between using that "breather" to get out from under the weight of piling debt.

The consumers are ahead of the curve on this one, they don't want to be exposed and have a crash potentially rob them of everything like what happened in September 2007. More mature approach and definitely more healthy.

They should be applauding that paradeigm shift, not bemoaning that households aren't running out and buying designer jeans and underwear made in Wall Street backed Chinese factories on credit cards.
07-12-2015 11:53 AM
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gobaseline Offline
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RE: Stan Druckenmiller speaks about the economy 4/24/15
(07-12-2015 11:53 AM)rtletterman Wrote:  
(07-12-2015 11:47 AM)Cucumber Salad Wrote:  Reportedly consumer consumption drives 70% of GDP, if I understand correctly.

I marveled listening to Wall Street types bemoaning not seeing that increased contribution when gas prices dropped. Reports were common folk were trying to pay down personal debt and save. I understand the WS perspective but can't help wonder how they and the fed don't see the correlation between using that "breather" to get out from under the weight of piling debt.

The consumers are ahead of the curve on this one, they don't want to be exposed and have a crash potentially rob them of everything like what happened in September 2007. More mature approach and definitely more healthy.

They should be applauding that paradeigm shift, not bemoaning that households aren't running out and buying designer jeans and underwear made in Wall Street backed Chinese factories on credit cards.

If true I hope it continues regardless of how long easy money is available and that it translates to the voting booth. Time to make some tough but practical decisions. Greece is the US without the engine of economic production. The engine needs serious tuning. The "juice" should means tested so that only those who truly can't help their circumstances and are actually disabled, etc. don't drown get above the water line. But people have to get serious about knowing WTH is going around them and get their head out of the sand.
07-12-2015 12:42 PM
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toddjnsn Offline
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RE: Stan Druckenmiller speaks about the economy 4/24/15
Quote:They should be applauding that paradeigm shift, not bemoaning that households aren't running out and buying designer jeans and underwear made in Wall Street backed Chinese factories on credit cards.

Yeah, being more financially responsible slows down the economy. We've been spoiled by loans -- whether it be by credit card or real major loans. It can drive an economy up, but also make it crash down when done over the tipping point.
07-12-2015 12:56 PM
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rtletterman Offline
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RE: Stan Druckenmiller speaks about the economy 4/24/15
Won't matter what our voting booth results are as long as Wall Street/Big Oil rule our world. We're still in the aftermath of Rommel vs Patton.
07-12-2015 01:23 PM
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ESSSS Offline
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RE: Stan Druckenmiller speaks about the economy 4/24/15
Quote: Greece is the US without the engine of economic production.

IMHO....Greece is the US without the world's reserve currency.
07-12-2015 01:27 PM
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rtletterman Offline
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RE: Stan Druckenmiller speaks about the economy 4/24/15
Or miliary.
07-12-2015 01:33 PM
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gobaseline Offline
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RE: Stan Druckenmiller speaks about the economy 4/24/15
(07-12-2015 01:27 PM)ESSSS Wrote:  
Quote: Greece is the US without the engine of economic production.

IMHO....Greece is the US without the world's reserve currency.

Point taken with the caveat the US is more productive and can increase that. Tax laws and receipts have to change. Budgets have to be streamlined but with forward thinking not repeating and learning from past mistakes.

I hear all the time that Pols are in the pockets of big whatever. Fact is that these folks don't get elected without the direct help of John and Jane Q Public. Whether they vote or not it puts the people in office. We need to look in the mirror, own up, take responsibility and act.

We can point the finger at Greece or whomever about kicking the can down the road. We do the same and it will come to roost. Reserve currency aside, it's on us to do our part.
07-12-2015 03:54 PM
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rtletterman Offline
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RE: Stan Druckenmiller speaks about the economy 4/24/15
^
Very idealistic. How refreshing, how cute, how naive. You hear "it all the time" because it's true, disenfranchisement of the voter is deliberate, and real.
07-12-2015 09:18 PM
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gobaseline Offline
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RE: Stan Druckenmiller speaks about the economy 4/24/15
(07-12-2015 09:18 PM)rtletterman Wrote:  ^
Very idealistic. How refreshing, how cute, how naive. You hear "it all the time" because it's true, disenfranchisement of the voter is deliberate, and real.

Professor Gruber, who helped design Obama Care was correct regarding the American electorate. Too busy on sports web boards and reality shows. Too Stupid and selfish to care beyond the immediate moment. As long as the check is in the mail or getting theirs they're good. Greeks are finding out in real time not only is the postal service poor, but the check will bounce.

But if not up to the electorate then who Dave? Do you have a top 10 list of solutions?
07-12-2015 10:59 PM
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MajorHoople Offline
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RE: Stan Druckenmiller speaks about the economy 4/24/15
Didn't Stan Druckenmiller use to play QB for VaTech and 49ers?
07-13-2015 06:03 AM
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gobaseline Offline
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RE: Stan Druckenmiller speaks about the economy 4/24/15
(07-13-2015 06:03 AM)MajorHoople Wrote:  Didn't Stan Druckenmiller use to play QB for VaTech and 49ers?

No. But his Dad ran the general store Petticoat Junction.
07-13-2015 07:51 AM
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acer1 Offline
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RE: Stan Druckenmiller speaks about the economy 4/24/15
My favorite saying is that Americans have become "Lemmings", and they have been taught that it is not cool to be conservative. Not as long as we can use, OPM's.

Always proud to be a Bronco, RTB.
07-13-2015 10:34 AM
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Dirty Ernie Offline
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RE: Stan Druckenmiller speaks about the economy 4/24/15
Oh please. Conservatives use OPM too.
07-14-2015 06:20 AM
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gobaseline Offline
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RE: Stan Druckenmiller speaks about the economy 4/24/15
I'm hooked on MSG.
07-14-2015 07:51 AM
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acer1 Offline
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RE: Stan Druckenmiller speaks about the economy 4/24/15
DE, I guess that I should have used the term "financially conservative" or "financial constraint". The main point is that the American public has become "Lemmings". That includes all political parties. Our last fiscal crisis was caused by the easy money for home building, where anyone could obtain a loan regardless of paying it back. There was the GM bailout of the "unions" because of the pension burdens. We are seeing it now in our cities where the public pension burdens override the ability of the voters to pay for the future cost. Isn't that what is happening in Greece? We see it in the default rate of the student loans. No one seems to think it is important to pay back borrowed money anymore. Why not vote for more handouts, whether it is for corporations or the public. We will not have to worry about how to pay for it.

Always proud to be a Bronco, RTB.
07-14-2015 08:23 AM
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rtletterman Offline
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RE: Stan Druckenmiller speaks about the economy 4/24/15
Overly simplistic definition of the cause of the 2007 crash. You single out a small percentage of the picture, leaving out the corruption, fraud and malfeasance performed at the governing, oversight and the Wall Street players.

I hope that you know better.
07-14-2015 10:04 AM
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