Tom in Lazybrook
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RE: US image globally
(06-25-2015 01:26 PM)vandiver49 Wrote: (06-25-2015 09:53 AM)Tom in Lazybrook Wrote: I just got back from Eastern Europe/Scandanavia on Monday. I was surprised at the attitudes there. First, the Swedes and the Finns are absolutely spooked by Putin and were so pro-American it was almost embarrassing. I drank all "night" in Helsinki and spent 10 Euros. The Balts are very pro American as well. The Poles are hawkish as ever and are pro-GOP (even the Gay Poles) due to security issues (they want US troops in Ukraine - I pointed out that they could put troops there). I travel a lot. Its very rare when foreigners - especially Europeans - seek out the opinion of Americans on geopolitical issues. That happened constantly on this trip.
Putin has assured the Scandinavian countries that if they don't join NATO then they'll have nothing to worry about. I feel bad for the Baltics, because regardless of how Ukraine turns out, the Russian ethnic minorities tactic will be justification for military action there as well. The Poles being hawkish and not wanting to actively do anything sounds about right as well.
Quote:Germany doesn't surprise me. But the unfavorable rating there is not really deep. If we threatened to leave Germany, they'd beg 'momma' to stay. They're upset by spying (not Germany spying on others, but the US spying on them), GMO food, and other irrelvancies. They take us for granted. Remember that Germans are very blunt and will give negative answers more readily than other cultures.
We should leave regardless. They've got a strong economy, put it to good use by spending it German defense.
Quote:The anti-American countries in Europe are Austria, Serbia, Hungary, Macedonia, Turkey, and Slovakia. Most of these countries are either economically tied to or historically aligned with Russia, or have authoritarian governments.
But after seeing the economic success of the countries the embraced NATO and the EU (Baltics, Poland), why do they still long for the glory days of the USSR?
Quote:Oddly enough is that the Italian government has been pretty weak on support for the US. Actually, the Italian government has been pretty useless.
Well, they haven't asked the US to leave it's bases and they IMO have a Navy of merit, so they are a little hard to figure out.
1) Everyone knows Putin's guarantees are worthless. The Swedes and Finns are currently outside NATO. That might change, although a slim majority of both still want to stay out.
2) The Balts have their Russian minorities under a strict thumb. All of them are NATO members. Putin's hands are tied.
3) The Poles are willing to act, but there are special issues that come to mind in that regard. First, Poland and Ukraine both claim areas in Ukraine (also in Lithuania), which makes Polish action complicated. Also, Poland's only border with Russia is in Kaliningrad, which is the only region of Russia that is anti-Putin. I actually ran into someone from the Polish foreign ministry in a Gay bar in Warsaw last week (oddly enough - I ran into someone from the German FM last year - strange - both were really credible too). We had a vigorous discussion about the situation, but in general terms. He was livid at what he saw was Obama's inaction vis a vis Russia. I replied that Obama's plan is to make US inaction credible to the Europeans in order to incentivize them to spend more than 0.25% of GDP on defense. US policy in Eastern Europe is focused on getting Germany to act, not Poland. I opined that Poland's differences with Ukraine and Lithuania (which are significant) make Polish action complicated and that Poland should work to resolve those issues. Oddly enough, he thought that what the 'official' biggest policy issue Poland has with the USA (visa waivers) was not really that significant. Let it suffice to say, the Poles would rather have Ronald Reagan than Obama. I suppose if I were Polish, I'd see the argument that having an America that would act in their defense with no contribution required by the Poles would be advantageous.
4) The fact that our bases are in a nation that is generally unwilling to act (Germany) rather than a hawkish nation (Poland) actually helps preserve US goals in the region. We could shift our bases to Poland and the Balts...but that would probably engender less flexibility, not more.
5) Each one of the 'anti-American' countries have specific reasons for their opposition to the USA. For Austria, its related largely to the fact that the Austrians have never particularly liked the USA and that their business community is dangerously over leveraged with loans to Russia and to other countries where the USA is not liked. For Slovakia, its a combination of an authoritarian leader who has designs on parts of Ukraine. For Hungary, its an authoritarian leader who has designs on parts of Ukraine and who knows that a strong Europe will turn on his plans to turn Hungary into a dictatorship. For Serbia, its a hangover from the NATO wars of the 90's, historical ties to Russia, and economic ties to Russia. For Macedonia, its about the fact that the US is aligned with its traditional rivals and a strong supporter of Kosovo. For Turkey, its really all about Erdogan and Gulen. In none of these cases, save Austria, do economic issues really come into play. All of these nations, save Austria, have awful economies in comparison to their peers.
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