HometownTiger
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NBA Draft Lottery - By The Numbers
I have taken data from a decade’s worth of NBA Draft Lottery picks and segmented the players into 5 categories: Super Stars, All Stars, Starters, Vets, and Busts. Here are some basic findings and predictions for 2015…
140 players were drafted in the lottery over the last 10 years (duh)
Here is the breakdown of those 140 players:
Super Stars: 10
All-Stars: 15
Starters: 44
Vets: 33
Busts: 38
Percentage of each category over the last 10 Lotteries:
Super Stars: 7%
All-Stars: 11%
Starters: 31%
Vets: 24%
Busts: 27%
That being true, the 2015 NBA Lottery should have (according to averages):
Super Stars: 1
All-Stars: 2
Starters: 4
Vets: 3
Busts: 4
So my prediction for each category (according to draft Express’ Lottery Mock):
Super Stars: Justise Winslow
All-Star: Karl Towns, Myles Turner
Starters: Jahlil Okafor, DeAngelo Russell, Mario Hezonja, Stanley Johnson
Vets: Trey Lyles, Devin Booker, Cameron Payne
Busts: Emmanuel Mudiay, Willie Cauley-Stein, Frank Kaminsky, Kristaps Porzingis
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06-22-2015 11:57 AM |
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holyterror
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RE: NBA Draft Lottery - By The Numbers
Nice work. Thanks.
More likely to get a bust than a star or superstar combined. Interesting.
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06-22-2015 03:17 PM |
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UofMark
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RE: NBA Draft Lottery - By The Numbers
Nice writeup.
I also agree Cauley-Stein is probable 'bust' material.
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06-22-2015 03:37 PM |
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HometownTiger
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RE: NBA Draft Lottery - By The Numbers
(06-22-2015 03:37 PM)UofMark Wrote: Nice writeup.
I also agree Cauley-Stein is probable 'bust' material.
I think he has GREAT potential, but I don't think he loves the game. He could be the next key piece on a championship caliber team (Tyson Chandler) or a talk athlete that shows flashes but never takes "the leap" (JaVale McGee)
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06-23-2015 02:12 PM |
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salukiblue
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RE: NBA Draft Lottery - By The Numbers
I don't see it in Winslow. He was generally a 4 in college and had a big quickness advantage over guys guarding him. He won't get that in college, in fact, he'll be an undersized 3 in the NBA. He's one of those guys that really wasn't on the radar of leaving early until a great tourney run.
We'll see though.
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06-23-2015 02:51 PM |
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HometownTiger
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RE: NBA Draft Lottery - By The Numbers
(06-23-2015 02:51 PM)salukiblue Wrote: I don't see it in Winslow. He was generally a 4 in college and had a big quickness advantage over guys guarding him. He won't get that in college, in fact, he'll be an undersized 3 in the NBA. He's one of those guys that really wasn't on the radar of leaving early until a great tourney run.
We'll see though.
Duke went 2 PGs, 2 wings and Okafor. Even though he played the 4, he was on the wing most of the time.
He has great size for an NBA wing - 6'7" 220 lbs. 6'10" wingspan with a 8'9" standing reach and 5% body fat - he's great in the open floor with or without the ball. he finishes through contact and has shown he can hit an open 3. Plus, he's an elite defender. He'll have to improve his handles quite a bit and continue to shoot the ball well, but I'm banking on him doing just that!
If/when he does - I think he's a mix of James harden & Jimmy Butler.
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06-23-2015 03:17 PM |
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salukiblue
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RE: NBA Draft Lottery - By The Numbers
(06-23-2015 03:17 PM)HometownTiger Wrote: (06-23-2015 02:51 PM)salukiblue Wrote: I don't see it in Winslow. He was generally a 4 in college and had a big quickness advantage over guys guarding him. He won't get that in college, in fact, he'll be an undersized 3 in the NBA. He's one of those guys that really wasn't on the radar of leaving early until a great tourney run.
We'll see though.
Duke went 2 PGs, 2 wings and Okafor. Even though he played the 4, he was on the wing most of the time.
He has great size for an NBA wing - 6'7" 220 lbs. 6'10" wingspan with a 8'9" standing reach and 5% body fat - he's great in the open floor with or without the ball. he finishes through contact and has shown he can hit an open 3. Plus, he's an elite defender. He'll have to improve his handles quite a bit and continue to shoot the ball well, but I'm banking on him doing just that!
If/when he does - I think he's a mix of James harden & Jimmy Butler.
I can understand your assessment, I just don't see it.
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06-23-2015 03:23 PM |
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Tiger46
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RE: NBA Draft Lottery - By The Numbers
Kaminsky reminds me of Kevin McHale, if they ever play that style of ball again.
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06-26-2015 04:44 PM |
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mairving
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RE: NBA Draft Lottery - By The Numbers
(06-23-2015 02:51 PM)salukiblue Wrote: I don't see it in Winslow. He was generally a 4 in college and had a big quickness advantage over guys guarding him. He won't get that in college, in fact, he'll be an undersized 3 in the NBA. He's one of those guys that really wasn't on the radar of leaving early until a great tourney run.
We'll see though.
The Celtics offered the Hornets 6 draft picks including 4 first round picks so they could move up to draft Winslow...crazy.
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06-27-2015 08:19 AM |
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aTxTIGER
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RE: NBA Draft Lottery - By The Numbers
Porzingis is going to have a long NBA career. This isn't a Darko who couldn't get off the bench for his team in Europe. This is a 19 year old kid who averaged double digits playing in a league vastly superior to the teams college players were playing against. He might not turn into Dirk or Pau but he will be a solid NBA rotation guy for years(usual injury caveats) at worst if not a max player in 5 years.
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07-01-2015 04:22 PM |
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HoopDreams
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RE: NBA Draft Lottery - By The Numbers
(07-01-2015 04:22 PM)aTxTIGER Wrote: Porzingis is going to have a long NBA career. This isn't a Darko who couldn't get off the bench for his team in Europe. This is a 19 year old kid who averaged double digits playing in a league vastly superior to the teams college players were playing against. He might not turn into Dirk or Pau but he will be a solid NBA rotation guy for years(usual injury caveats) at worst if not a max player in 5 years.
Hard to say - he is so narrow shouldered - going to be hard to ever really put on size, but he does have a lot of ability...and, like you said, only 19.
Could join the Gasols/Nowitski/Kirlilenko/Turkoglu/Gallinari/Radja/Schrempf/Kukoc/Divac/Ilgauskas, etc. line of Euro bigs that had productive NBA careers.
I don't think he will be the best Euro to ever play in the NBA nor do I think he is a Darko bust.
(This post was last modified: 07-01-2015 04:33 PM by HoopDreams.)
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07-01-2015 04:32 PM |
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