What % chance do you give UC to be the G5 representative in the Access Bowl this year?

I say 30%

Seems high. Though UC is the favorite to win the league, probably not more than 30 to 40% to win the league. I'd say if they win the league it's probably less than 50% they are the G5 representative. I'll go high end on both and say 20% to make the Access Bowl, but really the number is probably 10-15%.

We need lady luck to look down on us this year and smile....more than ever.

I say 0% because we will be playing in the playoffs!

(06-21-2015 05:29 PM)True Bearcat Wrote:  I say 0% because we will be playing in the playoffs!

They'd have to go undefeated and get a ton of help.

It'll either be 100% or 0%... So...

But seriously? The momentum right now is with Boise State. But if we were to beat BYU in Provo and take care of Miami @Nippert, and maybe go 7-1 in conference, I think we'd be the heavy favorite assuming Boise has the same win-loss ratio.

Boise Schedule:

Washington
@BYU
Idaho St
@Virginia
Hawaii
@Col St
@Utah St
Wyoming
@UNLV
New Mex
Air Force
San Jose St

(06-21-2015 05:52 PM)Bearcats#1 Wrote:  Boise Schedule:

Washington
@BYU
Idaho St
@Virginia
Hawaii
@Col St
@Utah St
Wyoming
@UNLV
New Mex
Air Force
San Jose St

Their conference schedule is far weaker than ours, but they did themselves a favor by scheduling 2 P5's and BYU. That said, I don't expect Washington or Virginia to be world-beaters. Since we for some god-awful reason decided to open the season with an FCS program, we probably need a better record than Boise to get the access bowl.

10%. At best.

We both play at byu. If we win and they lose, i think we get the access with same records.

If Kiel can stay healthy and have a heisman like season it wouldn't hurt our appeal.

Right now, Boise has the defacto edge because of reputation. It may not be fair, but it is what it is.

I'm not going to put a percentage on it but I fully expect to be in the Access Bowl. Fully expect it. 12-1 guarantees it and 11-2 would most likely get them there as well. It's year three, the team is mostly made up of players this staff brought in, the offense will be spectacular and it's time for a great season.

The only competition I see for UC is Boise State, Central Florida, Memphis, Colorado State and maybe Marshall.

Is be uber pleasantly surprised. I don't expect an outright conference title. I also don't expect anyone in the AAC to be rated ahead of Boise.

(06-21-2015 10:20 PM)BearcatShane09 Wrote:  . It's year three, the team is mostly made up of players this staff brought in,.

That's a bit misleading. First class is redshirt sophs - most likely going to just start making impact. Second class redshirt frosh - still teething. Third class - incoming frosh this season - plebes.

I guess if you throw in some jucos and transfers ( Keil), it weighs more towards his players, but we haven't had a coach play with "his" players since Minter.

(06-22-2015 08:17 AM)rath v2.0 Wrote:  Is be uber pleasantly surprised. I don't expect an outright conference title. I also don't expect anyone in the AAC to be rated ahead of Boise.

That is about where I am. Right now I am pegging us to go 9-3 which isn't going to get us an access bowl bid.

IMO if we do end up better than 9-3 and BSU is also in the running we have to end up with a better record than they do. If both teams are 12-1 BSU will get the Access Bid just because of their past success/our failures in bowl games.

Look at the percentage of scholarship players that are this staff's. Yeah, it's their roster. Between scholarships and walk ons there are about 105 isted on the roster and about 85 are from this staff's efforts.

(06-22-2015 08:35 AM)CliftonAve Wrote:  

(06-22-2015 08:17 AM)rath v2.0 Wrote:  Is be uber pleasantly surprised. I don't expect an outright conference title. I also don't expect anyone in the AAC to be rated ahead of Boise.

That is about where I am. Right now I am pegging us to go 9-3 which isn't going to get us an access bowl bid.

IMO if we do end up better than 9-3 and BSU is also in the running we have to end up with a better record than they do. If both teams are 12-1 BSU will get the Access Bid just because of their past success/our failures in bowl games.

Yep. We have very little room for error IMO. BYU and The U games are almost must wins for any chance. This new system is so weighted to personal bias its hard to overcome.

(06-22-2015 08:37 AM)rath v2.0 Wrote:  Look at the percentage of scholarship players that are this staff's. Yeah, it's their roster. Between scholarships and walk ons there are about 105 isted on the roster and about 85 are from this staff's efforts.

By my calculations we are down to about 19 who belong to the prior staff (maybe less because a couple of them may have committed in 2012/13 after CBJ left). They are:

Deyshawn Bond
Kevin Brown
Deionte Buckley*
Clemente Cassius
Alex Chisum
Nate Cole
DJ Dowdy
Zach Edwards
Parker Ehinger
Tion Green
Kevin Hyland
Andre Jones
EJ Junior
Ryan Leahy
Chris Moore
Max Morrison
Silverberry Mouhon
Justin Murray
Alex Pace

* Buckley was a Jones recruit and left after his Freshman year. After spending a year at Indiana State he rejoined the team this past off season.