I'll break it down like this...

50% win the east
65% win AAC CCG if we're in it
65% beat out Boise if those 2 happen

Multiply them together = 21% chance.

UC has to go at least 11-2 with a win over BYU or Miami FL and no worse than 7-1 in the league. If the West division champ has 2 losses or less that would help because Boise State isn't going to play anyone of real quality in the Mountain West title game. Boise State is usually very good at home and very good by the end of the season. Their best chances to slip up are at BYU, at Virginia, Washington, @Colorado State, and @Utah State. I am guessing they lose two games. Marshall is a threat because they play nobody. Purdue (might as well be a lower tier MAC team), @Ohio, @ Kent State, and Norfolk State is cupcake non-conference schedule. WKU is their only hurdle to get to the C-USA championship game.

Would it be any more suprising for us to make it this year than 2008? Maybe not, even still, I wouldnt have put the chances during that year at a very high number. Hell, we were 30 seconds away in 2009 from missing out on the BCS. Luck certainly will need to be our friend.

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Sorry to sound like a complete idiot, but what is an "Access Bowl" and why is it important... I tried to google it, but it was a little confusing.

(06-22-2015 11:49 AM)AeroCat Wrote:  Sorry to sound like a complete idiot, but what is an "Access Bowl" and why is it important... I tried to google it, but it was a little confusing.

It's essentially a BCS bowl. Now they give one spot to the best non-P5 team. There is a little more to it than that.

The Sugar, Orange, Fiesta, Cotton, Rose, and Chic-Fil-A bowls are the places that can hold the national semi-final games. The Sugar, Rose, and Orange are contract Bowls. In years when they are not hosting the semi-finals, they have contracts with certain conferences. The other three are access bowls. When they are not hosting the semi-final game they have no say in what teams get placed in their bowls. One spot in an access bowl is guaranteed to the highest rated G-5 conference champion.

Thank you!

(06-22-2015 11:37 AM)Cataclysmo Wrote:  Would it be any more suprising for us to make it this year than 2008? Maybe not, even still, I wouldnt have put the chances during that year at a very high number. Hell, we were 30 seconds away in 2009 from missing out on the BCS. Luck certainly will need to be our friend.

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Yes. Far harder in 2015 than 2008.

In 2008 we just had to finish higher than 7 other BE teams and we were guaranteed a spot. Now we have to win our division, win our CCG, win the nonconference games, win stle points to sway a committee, and then hope beyond hope teams like Boise State, Marshal, NIU and others do not run the string against their conferences.

Tons out of UCs control. Used to all be in our control.

(06-22-2015 01:27 PM)rath v2.0 Wrote:  

(06-22-2015 11:37 AM)Cataclysmo Wrote:  Would it be any more suprising for us to make it this year than 2008? Maybe not, even still, I wouldnt have put the chances during that year at a very high number. Hell, we were 30 seconds away in 2009 from missing out on the BCS. Luck certainly will need to be our friend.

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Yes. Far harder in 2015 than 2008.

In 2008 we just had to finish higher than 7 other BE teams and we were guaranteed a spot. Now we have to win our division, win our CCG, win the nonconference games, win stle points to sway a committee, and then hope beyond hope teams like Boise State, Marshal, NIU and others do not run the string against their conferences.

Tons out of UCs control. Used to all be in our control.

This


which is why combining the best of the MWC and the AAC would mean all we have to do is win the conference (most years) is the way to go.

My hope is that we make an access bowl or the playoff (long shot) over a Big 12 team. The big 12 teams continue to beat each other up and without a conf championship game get passed over by an undefeated Cincy team that wins its conference championship.

(06-22-2015 02:15 PM)Bearcats#1 Wrote:  

(06-22-2015 01:27 PM)rath v2.0 Wrote:  

(06-22-2015 11:37 AM)Cataclysmo Wrote:  Would it be any more suprising for us to make it this year than 2008? Maybe not, even still, I wouldnt have put the chances during that year at a very high number. Hell, we were 30 seconds away in 2009 from missing out on the BCS. Luck certainly will need to be our friend.

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Yes. Far harder in 2015 than 2008.

In 2008 we just had to finish higher than 7 other BE teams and we were guaranteed a spot. Now we have to win our division, win our CCG, win the nonconference games, win stle points to sway a committee, and then hope beyond hope teams like Boise State, Marshal, NIU and others do not run the string against their conferences.

Tons out of UCs control. Used to all be in our control.

This


which is why combining the best of the MWC and the AAC would mean all we have to do is win the conference (most years) is the way to go.

We would still have to win our division, win the conference, win enough OOC for rankings, and hope that MAC or CUSA team isn't 12-1 and ranked ahead as a conference champ.
It is really the same thing.

(06-22-2015 01:27 PM)rath v2.0 Wrote:  Tons out of UCs control. Used to all be in our control.

Still is in UC's control - win. They will only lose control from losing. Offensively, this team has the most firepower any UC team has ever had, the question will be defense. If the D shows any sign of improvement from last year, they have a decent shot at 12-1 or 11-2, if it's on par or worse than last year 9-4 will be likely result.