(06-13-2015 04:03 PM)nole Wrote: (06-13-2015 03:47 PM)WakeForestRanger Wrote: The biggest problem with your theory is the fact that you say the Virginia/North Carolina schools will leave first. That is incredibly unlikely as those schools are wedded to the ACC more than anyone. They will not be the first to leave and if your scenario requires that then it won't happen at all.
Don't hang your hat on the theory that teams will either be imprisoned in the ACC...so tough, or that a team like Va Tech won't want to pull something similar to Texas A&M over Texas with VA.....like that won't be tempting to them.
ACC has to be viable on it's own...not be content because it believes folks wont' have options or a few will settle for tradition. $$$ tends to change that.
CHange is coming....the ACC either can work towards radical change now....or face it latter.
I understand your logic. When one looks only at TV deals, I would agree. I only point out that conference payouts are pittance compared to other university revenue streams. Many schools have their private media deals that bring in 1/3-1/2 of the conference payout. Most schools in the ACC are serious about research which brings in far more money than a conference payout. The list goes on. As much as I love sports, sports revenue is really a small part of a university's budget. Worrying over a few million in difference of payouts (even ten million) is not that big of a deal for a university operating in the billion+ range or the multi-billion range.
I know most schools want their sports programs to be revenue positive or at least revenue neutral, but most schools can absorb small losses (not Maryland or Rutgers losses, though). Many times, the "losses" are only on paper.
I state the above because schools like UVA and UNC know that they are with schools they are close with (the original ACC, FSU), schools they can tolerate (all the newbies) and have influence on what happens in the conference. Jumping to the B1G would only net a few dollars (though I fully concede that in TV money, the number looks impressive) in the big scheme of the universities, it simply isn't worth the changes. In the B1G, UVA and UNC would be nothing special. Additionally, once you factor in the travel hassles (costs, time zones, relationships, etc.) the original TV difference becomes much smaller (see WVU/Big 12).
VATech to the SEC is a possibility but again, there are several factors to consider. Beamer will retire soon, will the program stay elevated, they have a sweet deal in their division with a shot of winning it annually, in the SEC, they would be a small fish in a big pond, and lest anyone forget the political wrangling expended on getting VATech in the ACC to begin with would cause many to wince at the idea of VATech leaving (that will take a while to wear off).
NCState to the SEC could be a possibility, but what does NCState bring to the SEC? Serious question, not facetious barb. SEC football is already on TV and they now have a network, do they need a Carolina school? The same may apply to VATech (or GATech, FSU, Clemson). If there are any TV gurus, this might be an interesting topic.
Finally, the Big 12 is not a real option unless they can create a coup de grace, taking several significant markets at once. Their market is relatively small (NY and FL have more population than the Big 12), add in every other ACC State and the numbers become staggering in favor of the ACC. I know several people think that the ACC will self destruct with several schools jumping at once to join UT but forget that school administrations have no interest in playing third fiddle to UT and OU, at least in the ACC, the schools are on equal footing.
I fully agree that change is coming and the ACC had best embrace it and if possible lead it.
