(06-09-2015 03:25 PM)ark30inf Wrote:  

(06-09-2015 03:24 PM)CajunFanatico Wrote:  

(06-09-2015 03:17 PM)ark30inf Wrote:  

(06-09-2015 02:48 PM)RaiderDoug Wrote:  Even when MT was back in the Belt, i've advocated a combination of the two and split along east/west lines.

That said, the reality is we're all crabs in the bucket. No one will stop looking out for themselves long enough to work together for the common good.

Don't kid yourselves, the first time CUSA finds itself with a hole, all it has to do is place one phone call to Mobile, Lafayette, or Jonesboro, and that hole is instantly patched. You can all talk about conference solidarity, but you know it ain't going to happen.

This isn't a knock on the SBC or in any way - it's the same thing we discuss in CUSA - "OOOhhh, maybe we can poach UCF back from the AAC since the AAC doesn't look that great, and who wants to join that conference anyway, blah blah blah".

FWIW, I think that sooner or later, we all end up back together in some sort of mid-tier between FCS and the power 5 conferences.

If CUSA had taken Elon, NW Nevada Wesleyan, and Minnesota Mining College there would still be some begging and pimping to get their school into it with them because of what Houston and ECU once did under that name and because everyone wants to be schoolyard picked for something.

They are not coming back.

USM will someday defect to the Belt. Heard it here first.

So you are a subscriber to the "many worlds" theory of quantum physics. Interesting.

Whatever it takes to keep my sanity.

For a team to move from CUSA to the SBC, the following would have to occur:

1) the SBC would have to demonstrate higher annual revenues than CUSA which would continue into the future. A Boise type team would have to emerge for this to occur.

2) the school leaving would have better rivalries and travel in the SBC.

It might take a while, but it is possible.

maybe not a super conference but you will see a realignment based on distance between schools, everyone seems to think that the key to success for mid majors is revenue, its not, the key to success is controlling expenses, revenue isn't finite, there is a cap on how much we can make, USA, SBC, or MAC, but there isn't a cap on expenses, it will continue to rise, while revenue will hit a ceiling, the gap between revenue and expenses will continue to expand in the coming years, that is why I think we will eventually be forced into regional conferences to try and control expenses.

(06-09-2015 03:50 PM)moehler Wrote:  maybe not a super conference but you will see a realignment based on distance between schools, everyone seems to think that the key to success for mid majors is revenue, its not, the key to success is controlling expenses, revenue isn't finite, there is a cap on how much we can make, USA, SBC, or MAC, but there isn't a cap on expenses, it will continue to rise, while revenue will hit a ceiling, the gap between revenue and expenses will continue to expand in the coming years, that is why I think we will eventually be forced into regional conferences to try and control expenses.

I would add that the concept of reducing expenses via playing teams that are more regional in nature should also encourage better rivalries. Better rivalries should beget more fan interest. More butts in the seats should also help out on the revenue issue for individual schools.

(06-09-2015 01:29 PM)arkstfan Wrote:  That some schools might be disgruntled and want change is not far-fetched. What is far-fetched are the logistics required.

We don't know if CFP would share with a new conference created from scratch and odds are they would not. That leaves transforming an existing CFP recipient league.

So let's say UTEP, Rice, UTSA, UNT want a reformation. They come to the Sun Belt. CUSA will replace at least two of them. Figure two out of App, GaSt, GaSo, USA, Troy, and maybe JMU.

Now you have USM and LaTech trying to determine their next move. If they opt to join the Texans, then two more from the before list get picked off to go CUSA.

Then you have the ugly part. You have a critical mass that can likely get the 3/4ths votes to do things like mandate FBS football or expel a member deemed out of the footprint. And of course you have a big press conference where you announce it as a new conference (while telling the NCAA and CFP, just kidding about being a new league).

It can be done, it just isn't easy to do and depending on the next CUSA deal, it could be completely impossible to do.

I would instead like to see CUSA and SBC split along East and West lines. It makes a lot more geographic sense, creates better rivalries, improves attendance, and makes for better regional TV packages.

SBC - Louisiana, Ark State, UNT, LA Tech, TX State, UTSA, Rice, USM. UTEP, NMSU

CUSA - Troy, USA, ULM, MT, WKU, FIU, FAU, Marshall, ODU, Charlotte, App State, GA Southern, GA State, UAB

I would love to see the Sun Belt have a presence in Florida but the only realistic possibilities are FAU and FIU...which I think weaken not strengthen the conference.

I'd love to have MTSU and UNT simply because of their locations.

(06-09-2015 04:22 PM)HoustonCajun Wrote:  

(06-09-2015 01:29 PM)arkstfan Wrote:  That some schools might be disgruntled and want change is not far-fetched. What is far-fetched are the logistics required.

We don't know if CFP would share with a new conference created from scratch and odds are they would not. That leaves transforming an existing CFP recipient league.

So let's say UTEP, Rice, UTSA, UNT want a reformation. They come to the Sun Belt. CUSA will replace at least two of them. Figure two out of App, GaSt, GaSo, USA, Troy, and maybe JMU.

Now you have USM and LaTech trying to determine their next move. If they opt to join the Texans, then two more from the before list get picked off to go CUSA.

Then you have the ugly part. You have a critical mass that can likely get the 3/4ths votes to do things like mandate FBS football or expel a member deemed out of the footprint. And of course you have a big press conference where you announce it as a new conference (while telling the NCAA and CFP, just kidding about being a new league).

It can be done, it just isn't easy to do and depending on the next CUSA deal, it could be completely impossible to do.

I would instead like to see CUSA and SBC split along East and West lines. It makes a lot more geographic sense, creates better rivalries, improves attendance, and makes for better regional TV packages.

SBC - Louisiana, Ark State, UNT, LA Tech, TX State, UTSA, Rice, USM. UTEP, NMSU

CUSA - Troy, USA, ULM, MT, WKU, FIU, FAU, Marshall, ODU, Charlotte, App State, GA Southern, GA State, UAB

That would create a great geographic footprint.

(06-09-2015 04:22 PM)HoustonCajun Wrote:  

(06-09-2015 01:29 PM)arkstfan Wrote:  That some schools might be disgruntled and want change is not far-fetched. What is far-fetched are the logistics required.

We don't know if CFP would share with a new conference created from scratch and odds are they would not. That leaves transforming an existing CFP recipient league.

So let's say UTEP, Rice, UTSA, UNT want a reformation. They come to the Sun Belt. CUSA will replace at least two of them. Figure two out of App, GaSt, GaSo, USA, Troy, and maybe JMU.

Now you have USM and LaTech trying to determine their next move. If they opt to join the Texans, then two more from the before list get picked off to go CUSA.

Then you have the ugly part. You have a critical mass that can likely get the 3/4ths votes to do things like mandate FBS football or expel a member deemed out of the footprint. And of course you have a big press conference where you announce it as a new conference (while telling the NCAA and CFP, just kidding about being a new league).

It can be done, it just isn't easy to do and depending on the next CUSA deal, it could be completely impossible to do.

I would instead like to see CUSA and SBC split along East and West lines. It makes a lot more geographic sense, creates better rivalries, improves attendance, and makes for better regional TV packages.

SBC - Louisiana, Ark State, UNT, LA Tech, TX State, UTSA, Rice, USM. UTEP, NMSU

CUSA - Troy, USA, ULM, MT, WKU, FIU, FAU, Marshall, ODU, Charlotte, App State, GA Southern, GA State, UAB

Interesting, shipping ULM over to CUSA.

(06-09-2015 12:36 PM)EigenEagle Wrote:  Well, obviously this isn't something that could be done right now, but what about in 5 years?

Basically, I am going off of the assumption here that CUSA's "media market" gambit will fail and that we will surpass them in football. The only question in my mind is when will it become apparent that CUSA's expansion strategy was misguided and that's when some CUSA teams could be ripe for the picking.

Go ahead and scoff away, but if you think it's a ridiculous idea then just ask yourself if you only believe that just because you think "CUSA is better 'cause it's CUSA". Using that logic we should all try to join the SoCon because of its membership from the 1920s.

CUSA is not better, they just have better TV revenue. It is currently at about $1 million per school. The SBC might get $100,000 per school if they are lucky.

Add exit fees, loss revenue in the final season and entry fees and no CUSA school is ever going to leave for the Sun Belt. Not without a significant change in TV revenue for the Sun Belt. If the revenue changed significantly, then the SBC would have a line of schools wanting in.

(06-09-2015 04:54 PM)SoCalBobcat78 Wrote:  

(06-09-2015 12:36 PM)EigenEagle Wrote:  Well, obviously this isn't something that could be done right now, but what about in 5 years?

Basically, I am going off of the assumption here that CUSA's "media market" gambit will fail and that we will surpass them in football. The only question in my mind is when will it become apparent that CUSA's expansion strategy was misguided and that's when some CUSA teams could be ripe for the picking.

Go ahead and scoff away, but if you think it's a ridiculous idea then just ask yourself if you only believe that just because you think "CUSA is better 'cause it's CUSA". Using that logic we should all try to join the SoCon because of its membership from the 1920s.

CUSA is not better, they just have better TV revenue. It is currently at about $1 million per school. The SBC might get $100,000 per school if they are lucky.

Add exit fees, loss revenue in the final season and entry fees and no CUSA school is ever going to leave for the Sun Belt. Not without a significant change in TV revenue for the Sun Belt. If the revenue changed significantly, then the SBC would have a line of schools wanting in.

But we should talk about it amd make tbteads on it every week as if it might happen.

(06-09-2015 12:36 PM)EigenEagle Wrote:  Well, obviously this isn't something that could be done right now, but what about in 5 years?

Basically, I am going off of the assumption here that CUSA's "media market" gambit will fail and that we will surpass them in football. The only question in my mind is when will it become apparent that CUSA's expansion strategy was misguided and that's when some CUSA teams could be ripe for the picking.

Go ahead and scoff away, but if you think it's a ridiculous idea then just ask yourself if you only believe that just because you think "CUSA is better 'cause it's CUSA". Using that logic we should all try to join the SoCon because of its membership from the 1920s.

Before I read a single post in this thread, I wanted to respond.

In the event that you are correct about CUSA's media gamble failing, I still do not see the Sun Belt raiding CUSA.

I think the most likely scenario would be CUSA breaking away with the top football schools leading the way. From there, they would just take the top Sun Belt schools with them, forming a new conference. This way the dead weight from both conferences get left behind. I think it'd be sweet.

(06-09-2015 04:54 PM)GoBigRed26 Wrote:  

(06-09-2015 04:22 PM)HoustonCajun Wrote:  

(06-09-2015 01:29 PM)arkstfan Wrote:  That some schools might be disgruntled and want change is not far-fetched. What is far-fetched are the logistics required.

We don't know if CFP would share with a new conference created from scratch and odds are they would not. That leaves transforming an existing CFP recipient league.

So let's say UTEP, Rice, UTSA, UNT want a reformation. They come to the Sun Belt. CUSA will replace at least two of them. Figure two out of App, GaSt, GaSo, USA, Troy, and maybe JMU.

Now you have USM and LaTech trying to determine their next move. If they opt to join the Texans, then two more from the before list get picked off to go CUSA.

Then you have the ugly part. You have a critical mass that can likely get the 3/4ths votes to do things like mandate FBS football or expel a member deemed out of the footprint. And of course you have a big press conference where you announce it as a new conference (while telling the NCAA and CFP, just kidding about being a new league).

It can be done, it just isn't easy to do and depending on the next CUSA deal, it could be completely impossible to do.

I would instead like to see CUSA and SBC split along East and West lines. It makes a lot more geographic sense, creates better rivalries, improves attendance, and makes for better regional TV packages.

SBC - Louisiana, Ark State, UNT, LA Tech, TX State, UTSA, Rice, USM. UTEP, NMSU

CUSA - Troy, USA, ULM, MT, WKU, FIU, FAU, Marshall, ODU, Charlotte, App State, GA Southern, GA State, UAB

Interesting, shipping ULM over to CUSA.

Did it for 3 reasons:

1. LA Tech would never be in a conference with ULM.
2. ULM is the eastern most school of the 3 Louisiana schools.
3. Sun Belt West would be uneven with 11 members and CUSA would be uneven with 13 if ULM went west.

(06-09-2015 04:54 PM)SoCalBobcat78 Wrote:  CUSA is not better, they just have better TV revenue. It is currently at about $1 million per school. The SBC might get $100,000 per school if they are lucky.

Add exit fees, loss revenue in the final season and entry fees and no CUSA school is ever going to leave for the Sun Belt. Not without a significant change in TV revenue for the Sun Belt. If the revenue changed significantly, then the SBC would have a line of schools wanting in.

Our TV revenue probably isn't going up any time soon, but CUSA's is about to go down.

When CUSA's current TV contract was put in place the league had East Carolina, Houston, Memphis, UCF, SMU, Tulsa and Central Florida did it not? There's no bleepin' way that with the current lineup of schools that their TV contract will be worth 10x what ours with worth.

It will probably still be a bit more valuable, but so much more revenue will come from the CFB payouts and on that end I am glad my team is in the Sun Belt and not COOSA.

(06-09-2015 04:54 PM)SoCalBobcat78 Wrote:  

(06-09-2015 12:36 PM)EigenEagle Wrote:  Well, obviously this isn't something that could be done right now, but what about in 5 years?

Basically, I am going off of the assumption here that CUSA's "media market" gambit will fail and that we will surpass them in football. The only question in my mind is when will it become apparent that CUSA's expansion strategy was misguided and that's when some CUSA teams could be ripe for the picking.

Go ahead and scoff away, but if you think it's a ridiculous idea then just ask yourself if you only believe that just because you think "CUSA is better 'cause it's CUSA". Using that logic we should all try to join the SoCon because of its membership from the 1920s.

CUSA is not better, they just have better TV revenue. It is currently at about $1 million per school. The SBC might get $100,000 per school if they are lucky.

Add exit fees, loss revenue in the final season and entry fees and no CUSA school is ever going to leave for the Sun Belt. Not without a significant change in TV revenue for the Sun Belt. If the revenue changed significantly, then the SBC would have a line of schools wanting in.

What creates the value of the current CUSA contract? The CUSA brand name or the member schools?

If the schools create the value then they can shift into varying combinations.

Now some wag points out that the CUSA deal was signed while UCF, Houston, SMU, Memphis, ECU, Tulane, and Tulsa were still in CUSA and the Sun Belt's money was based on UNT, FIU, FAU, MTSU, and WKU being in the Sun Belt.

We don't know what CUSA TV is worth after 2015-16 but I think the value has more to do with what Fox wishes to do with its content than who is in CUSA.

(06-09-2015 05:06 PM)FlyHawk98 Wrote:  

(06-09-2015 12:36 PM)EigenEagle Wrote:  Well, obviously this isn't something that could be done right now, but what about in 5 years?

Basically, I am going off of the assumption here that CUSA's "media market" gambit will fail and that we will surpass them in football. The only question in my mind is when will it become apparent that CUSA's expansion strategy was misguided and that's when some CUSA teams could be ripe for the picking.

Go ahead and scoff away, but if you think it's a ridiculous idea then just ask yourself if you only believe that just because you think "CUSA is better 'cause it's CUSA". Using that logic we should all try to join the SoCon because of its membership from the 1920s.

Before I read a single post in this thread, I wanted to respond.

In the event that you are correct about CUSA's media gamble failing, I still do not see the Sun Belt raiding CUSA.

I think the most likely scenario would be CUSA breaking away with the top football schools leading the way. From there, they would just take the top Sun Belt schools with them, forming a new conference. This way the dead weight from both conferences get left behind. I think it'd be sweet.

The problem with that is the CFP. It is a contract between specific signatories. We don't know what would happen if a new conference emerged and said pay us. What we do know is what happened under the BCS with same governance structure. The Big West signed the BCS deal, it quit the football business and the Sun Belt emerged. The Sun Belt said pay us, and the BCS leadership said, you didn't sign the contract you aren't entitled to anything, so the Belt had to wait until the next BCS deal to get on the dole.

(06-09-2015 06:47 PM)EigenEagle Wrote:  Our TV revenue probably isn't going up any time soon, but CUSA's is about to go down.

When CUSA's current TV contract was put in place the league had East Carolina, Houston, Memphis, UCF, SMU, Tulsa and Central Florida did it not? There's no bleepin' way that with the current lineup of schools that their TV contract will be worth 10x what ours with worth.

I think ours is locked in until 2020 (if memory serves).

And though the product isn't what it was when CUSA originally signed their contract, I don't know if it will go down enough to make the two conferences "revenue neutral" per television contracts. Not saying it won't happen, but that is a HUGE amount to decrease a contract and tough to sell to your members.

I think for a team to move from CUSA to Sun Belt, you have to have the the following (at worst):
- Negligible revenue difference in television revenue.
- increased money from CFP money. That means (to me) multiple years of finishing ahead of them to show a pattern, not just a one year anomaly.
- Bowls of equal or greater number and "prestige". We do need to get bowls against the AAC or P5.

If we can get those three things done, we could then grab from CUSA. But that's a LOT of stuff to accomplish.

(06-09-2015 08:15 PM)TheRevSWT Wrote:  And though the product isn't what it was when CUSA originally signed their contract, I don't know if it will go down enough to make the two conferences "revenue neutral" per television contracts. Not saying it won't happen, but that is a HUGE amount to decrease a contract and tough to sell to your members.

A lot of SBC people are hoping and wishing it will collapse so they can say "I told you so".

That's wishful thinking. Arkstfan is right. It will depend on what Fox's plans are and what they think they need. I wouldn't be surprised to see it go down...stay the same....or even go up. No telling what the tv execs will do.

(06-09-2015 08:15 PM)TheRevSWT Wrote:  

(06-09-2015 06:47 PM)EigenEagle Wrote:  Our TV revenue probably isn't going up any time soon, but CUSA's is about to go down.

When CUSA's current TV contract was put in place the league had East Carolina, Houston, Memphis, UCF, SMU, Tulsa and Central Florida did it not? There's no bleepin' way that with the current lineup of schools that their TV contract will be worth 10x what ours with worth.

I think ours is locked in until 2020 (if memory serves).

And though the product isn't what it was when CUSA originally signed their contract, I don't know if it will go down enough to make the two conferences "revenue neutral" per television contracts. Not saying it won't happen, but that is a HUGE amount to decrease a contract and tough to sell to your members.

I think for a team to move from CUSA to Sun Belt, you have to have the the following (at worst):
- Negligible revenue difference in television revenue.
- increased money from CFP money. That means (to me) multiple years of finishing ahead of them to show a pattern, not just a one year anomaly.
- Bowls of equal or greater number and "prestige". We do need to get bowls against the AAC or P5.

If we can get those three things done, we could then grab from CUSA. But that's a LOT of stuff to accomplish.

Nothing worth doing is ever easy.

(06-09-2015 08:19 PM)ark30inf Wrote:  

(06-09-2015 08:15 PM)TheRevSWT Wrote:  And though the product isn't what it was when CUSA originally signed their contract, I don't know if it will go down enough to make the two conferences "revenue neutral" per television contracts. Not saying it won't happen, but that is a HUGE amount to decrease a contract and tough to sell to your members.

A lot of SBC people are hoping and wishing it will collapse so they can say "I told you so".

That's wishful thinking. Arkstfan is right. It will depend on what Fox's plans are and what they think they need. I wouldn't be surprised to see it go down...stay the same....or even go up. No telling what the tv execs will do.

As I've said before. Tell what Fox wants to do and I can tell you what to expect.

(06-09-2015 05:06 PM)FlyHawk98 Wrote:  

(06-09-2015 12:36 PM)EigenEagle Wrote:  Well, obviously this isn't something that could be done right now, but what about in 5 years?

Basically, I am going off of the assumption here that CUSA's "media market" gambit will fail and that we will surpass them in football. The only question in my mind is when will it become apparent that CUSA's expansion strategy was misguided and that's when some CUSA teams could be ripe for the picking.

Go ahead and scoff away, but if you think it's a ridiculous idea then just ask yourself if you only believe that just because you think "CUSA is better 'cause it's CUSA". Using that logic we should all try to join the SoCon because of its membership from the 1920s.

Before I read a single post in this thread, I wanted to respond.

In the event that you are correct about CUSA's media gamble failing, I still do not see the Sun Belt raiding CUSA.

I think the most likely scenario would be CUSA breaking away with the top football schools leading the way. From there, they would just take the top Sun Belt schools with them, forming a new conference. This way the dead weight from both conferences get left behind. I think it'd be sweet.

Your thought is twisted and diabolical. I like it.