(06-11-2015 06:47 PM)toddjnsn Wrote:  Okay, so imagine (which shouldn't be that hard) if OSU isn't QUITE as good as last year, in terms of being in a funk, in the OOC part of the year. They have a championship hangover, QB issues/battles... takes a while to gel.

So I simulated 2014 NIU (who will be better in 2015) VS 2013 OSU, who was a "mere" 12-2 on the season:



Not so distant, eh? :)

Most believe OSU will be a little better than last year since they virtually lost no one. NIU probably will be a little bit less than last year's team with the offensive line questions and not having that late game go to back like Stingily. NIU will have to do more damage in the air, and that is where Hare will be tested this year as in contrast to last year when his job was basically the old "don't do stupid things" motto.

The West race should really be interesting, every team has their pretty big flaw, with WMU its that defensive backfield which take a major hit this off season. With all three teams so evenly matched its probably going to come down to scheduling

(06-11-2015 06:47 PM)toddjnsn Wrote:  Okay, so imagine (which shouldn't be that hard) if OSU isn't QUITE as good as last year, in terms of being in a funk, in the OOC part of the year. They have a championship hangover, QB issues/battles... takes a while to gel.

So I simulated 2014 NIU (who will be better in 2015) VS 2013 OSU, who was a "mere" 12-2 on the season:



Not so distant, eh? :)

We had it until that damn 4th Q!!!

I think "on paper" OSU will be better than last year, yes. But unlike any other team, except for, say Boise State or any conference champion who won a worthy bowl they went to -- they won't execute quite as good early in the season. Even though their QB "controversy" is about the best you can hope for, when QBs are looking to go this way and that way, and your previous frosh is going to start and he's young and just won a National Championship being 3rd string -- I dunno. There's a lack of solidity in it all at that important spot, even though it's the best kind.

Don't get me wrong -- they're going to be a contender nonetheless. Heck, they lost to a barely-made-it-to-a-bowl VaTech last year, yet won the National Championship. Teams can start out sluggish early on. Their OOC is going to focus on VaTech which "could have cost them", so I can see them being geared for that and all...

With NIU -- "on paper" from a general standpoint, with so many returning, and Hare getting settled in and focusing in Spring about getting butt-pumped by Marshall, and Rod Carey with something to prove (to move on up to BCS Conference coach) -- I think NIU is going to be better all-around. Not just on paper.

However, all that depends on how good a coach Carey is. This year is his Defining year. He inherited Lynch, did well adjusting to newcomers on offense and a couple key injuries. OK -- what about now? They have returners -- this is all on him. Now, asking for the same exact record and winning the MAC? Maybe a bit too much as last year had a lot of luck and "past year momentum" carrying thru and NIU wasn't as good as the W/L column itself indicated. So that by ITSELF I can see not quite as good.

But you can at least guaranShee that CMU won't be in their L column this year. So that gives them leeway to lose to a real MAC team (@Toledo), but could prevent them from going to the MACC game to play BGSU or Ohio. But if it's Toledo's year, and NIU goes 7-1 in the MAC (they have WMU at home which would help them get that) -- and beat Boston College, they could be 10-2 and better than last year without going to the Champ game.

Anyway, all and all, compared to last year -- I see NIU more on the "up" than Ohio State when comparing each team to their yesteryear, when it comes to the "human measuring stick". That's why I see comparing last year's NIU to 2013 12-2 Ohio State as a more sound comparison in seeing "what happens".

The OSU team that won the national title last year could have played with if not beaten lower level NFL teams like Tampa Bay, Jacksonville & Oakland. Unless OSU makes alot of mistakes this game will get as ugly as Meyer wants it to be.

Quote:The OSU team that won the national title last year could have played with if not beaten lower level NFL teams like Tampa Bay, Jacksonville & Oakland. Unless OSU makes alot of mistakes this game will get as ugly as Meyer wants it to be.

Wow, VA-Tech was unstoppable then! They beat that NFL-level OSU and us at WMU hung with Va-Tech! I guess that puts WMU on the level of lower-level Canadian football? :)

Just announced NIU @ OSU on ABC

(06-12-2015 10:23 AM)Policiious Wrote:  The OSU team that won the national title last year could have played with if not beaten lower level NFL teams like Tampa Bay, Jacksonville & Oakland. Unless OSU makes alot of mistakes this game will get as ugly as Meyer wants it to be.

Are you kidding me!? NO college team could EVER beat the lowest of low NFL teams. You realize NFL teams are filled with ALL NFL players and top college teams are filled with like 5-10 NFL players TOPS?

That kind of statement is straight ridiculous. People were saying Alabama from a couple years past could beat bottom feeder NFL teams and the same response was given.

Quote:Are you kidding me!? NO college team could EVER beat the lowest of low NFL teams.

I more agree with you, and definitely if considering OSU -- but there have been college teams with offensive lines bigger than some NFL teams.

(06-12-2015 10:47 AM)toddjnsn Wrote:  

Quote:Are you kidding me!? NO college team could EVER beat the lowest of low NFL teams.

I more agree with you, and definitely if considering OSU -- but there have been college teams with offensive lines bigger than some NFL teams.

OSU is not even built like an NFL team and would be crushed. The only college team that EVER had any resemblance to an NFL team was Alabama based on their style of play.

And just because Arkansas from last year had an offensive line bigger than all NFL teams, that does not equate to them being able to compete.

Yeah and the same people spent much of the year saying Kentucky basketball would've beaten the 76ers this year...then they didn't even make it to the NCAA championship game. I think this stuff always starts as one person being hyperbolic and then a bunch of people actually thinking it's a possibility.

(06-12-2015 10:23 AM)Policiious Wrote:  The OSU team that won the national title last year could have played with if not beaten lower level NFL teams like Tampa Bay, Jacksonville & Oakland. Unless OSU makes alot of mistakes this game will get as ugly as Meyer wants it to be.

LOLWUT

I had a dream that NIU beat OSU in a low scoring game. Just sayin'.

Quote:I had a dream that NIU beat OSU in a low scoring game. Just sayin'.

Probably equivalent to this one time I had a dream having sex with Elle McPherson but had problems getting it up for a while -- it wasn't going anywhere -- until I was able to get the choo-choo train 'rolling. Hey, not an exciting one -- but hey, it was super model and got my V.

(06-11-2015 07:37 PM)toddjnsn Wrote:  I think "on paper" OSU will be better than last year, yes. But unlike any other team, except for, say Boise State or any conference champion who won a worthy bowl they went to -- they won't execute quite as good early in the season. Even though their QB "controversy" is about the best you can hope for, when QBs are looking to go this way and that way, and your previous frosh is going to start and he's young and just won a National Championship being 3rd string -- I dunno. There's a lack of solidity in it all at that important spot, even though it's the best kind.

Don't get me wrong -- they're going to be a contender nonetheless. Heck, they lost to a barely-made-it-to-a-bowl VaTech last year, yet won the National Championship. Teams can start out sluggish early on. Their OOC is going to focus on VaTech which "could have cost them", so I can see them being geared for that and all...

With NIU -- "on paper" from a general standpoint, with so many returning, and Hare getting settled in and focusing in Spring about getting butt-pumped by Marshall, and Rod Carey with something to prove (to move on up to BCS Conference coach) -- I think NIU is going to be better all-around. Not just on paper.

However, all that depends on how good a coach Carey is. This year is his Defining year. He inherited Lynch, did well adjusting to newcomers on offense and a couple key injuries. OK -- what about now? They have returners -- this is all on him. Now, asking for the same exact record and winning the MAC? Maybe a bit too much as last year had a lot of luck and "past year momentum" carrying thru and NIU wasn't as good as the W/L column itself indicated. So that by ITSELF I can see not quite as good.

But you can at least guaranShee that CMU won't be in their L column this year. So that gives them leeway to lose to a real MAC team (@Toledo), but could prevent them from going to the MACC game to play BGSU or Ohio. But if it's Toledo's year, and NIU goes 7-1 in the MAC (they have WMU at home which would help them get that) -- and beat Boston College, they could be 10-2 and better than last year without going to the Champ game.

Anyway, all and all, compared to last year -- I see NIU more on the "up" than Ohio State when comparing each team to their yesteryear, when it comes to the "human measuring stick". That's why I see comparing last year's NIU to 2013 12-2 Ohio State as a more sound comparison in seeing "what happens".

I love todd how you set things up to make NIU look as bad as possible , it actually gives me a chuckle. The purpose of your post I get a feeling is to make sure NIU does not get any credit if the final score is closer than expected against OSU. You know as well as I do, CMU can probably beat any team in the MAC on any given day and going to Mt Pleasant is going to be no easy chore for NIU, especially following 2 grueling games on the road against OSU and BC, so don't try and make it out like it is the upset of the century if CMU beats NIU. Again, I love how you attempt to set things up ahead of time.

Unfortunately when there are talent disparities as large as a NIU vs OSU or a WMU vs OSU, the game is probably not going to be affected by Drew Hare being upset he lost to Marshall, or Urban Meyer on the sideline daydreaming about the Oregon game last year. Ohio State beat Wisconsin 59-0 in the Big 10 championship and return virtually everyone. I think as they improved through the year the Buckeyes the Huskies and Broncos will be facing is much closer to that version of OSU than when they played Va Tech.

Secondly, you have to get over this luck thing, yes I know sbn nation has their Pythagorean quantum physics Luck squared equation and supposedly NIU is the luckiest program in the history of football, but after 10 or 15 years does it not just go to show that if a program continually makes its own luck, maybe its actually a good program.

(06-12-2015 04:42 PM)MaddDawgz02 Wrote:  

(06-11-2015 07:37 PM)toddjnsn Wrote:  I think "on paper" OSU will be better than last year, yes. But unlike any other team, except for, say Boise State or any conference champion who won a worthy bowl they went to -- they won't execute quite as good early in the season. Even though their QB "controversy" is about the best you can hope for, when QBs are looking to go this way and that way, and your previous frosh is going to start and he's young and just won a National Championship being 3rd string -- I dunno. There's a lack of solidity in it all at that important spot, even though it's the best kind.

Don't get me wrong -- they're going to be a contender nonetheless. Heck, they lost to a barely-made-it-to-a-bowl VaTech last year, yet won the National Championship. Teams can start out sluggish early on. Their OOC is going to focus on VaTech which "could have cost them", so I can see them being geared for that and all...

With NIU -- "on paper" from a general standpoint, with so many returning, and Hare getting settled in and focusing in Spring about getting butt-pumped by Marshall, and Rod Carey with something to prove (to move on up to BCS Conference coach) -- I think NIU is going to be better all-around. Not just on paper.

However, all that depends on how good a coach Carey is. This year is his Defining year. He inherited Lynch, did well adjusting to newcomers on offense and a couple key injuries. OK -- what about now? They have returners -- this is all on him. Now, asking for the same exact record and winning the MAC? Maybe a bit too much as last year had a lot of luck and "past year momentum" carrying thru and NIU wasn't as good as the W/L column itself indicated. So that by ITSELF I can see not quite as good.

But you can at least guaranShee that CMU won't be in their L column this year. So that gives them leeway to lose to a real MAC team (@Toledo), but could prevent them from going to the MACC game to play BGSU or Ohio. But if it's Toledo's year, and NIU goes 7-1 in the MAC (they have WMU at home which would help them get that) -- and beat Boston College, they could be 10-2 and better than last year without going to the Champ game.

Anyway, all and all, compared to last year -- I see NIU more on the "up" than Ohio State when comparing each team to their yesteryear, when it comes to the "human measuring stick". That's why I see comparing last year's NIU to 2013 12-2 Ohio State as a more sound comparison in seeing "what happens".

I love todd how you set things up to make NIU look as bad as possible , it actually gives me a chuckle. The purpose of your post I get a feeling is to make sure NIU does not get any credit if the final score is closer than expected against OSU. You know as well as I do, CMU can probably beat any team in the MAC on any given day and going to Mt Pleasant is going to be no easy chore for NIU, especially following 2 grueling games on the road against OSU and BC, so don't try and make it out like it is the upset of the century if CMU beats NIU. Again, I love how you attempt to set things up ahead of time.

Unfortunately when there are talent disparities as large as a NIU vs OSU or a WMU vs OSU, the game is probably not going to be affected by Drew Hare being upset he lost to Marshall, or Urban Meyer on the sideline daydreaming about the Oregon game last year. Ohio State beat Wisconsin 59-0 in the Big 10 championship and return virtually everyone. I think as they improved through the year the Buckeyes the Huskies and Broncos will be facing is much closer to that version of OSU than when they played Va Tech.

Secondly, you have to get over this luck thing, yes I know sbn nation has their Pythagorean quantum physics Luck squared equation and supposedly NIU is the luckiest program in the history of football, but after 10 or 15 years does it not just go to show that if a program continually makes its own luck, maybe its actually a good program.

+1

Quote:you set things up to make NIU look as bad as possible , it actually gives me a chuckle. The purpose of your post I get a feeling is to make sure NIU does not get any credit if the final score is closer than expected against OSU.

What? LOL. You're nuts! Just because I don't believe NIU is going to lose 72-24 doesn't mean I think it *is* going to be relatively close. I'm talking about the CHANCES of it possibly being competitive for some of the game. POSSIBLY.

How am I talking about making NIU look as bad as possible? I'm not saying NIU should/will/expected-to give OSU a close game.

I'm saying that they *could* give OSU a close game *if* OSU is riding off a national championship hangover and beating VaTech and looking toward the B10 season -- and Rod Carey steps up to be a coach who will move on (NIU running on all cylinders).

That is NOT to set up the chips if NIU loses Huge to make NIU seem LESS. Not at all. I think there's a BIG chance NIU will lose big. Of course. With just about anyone outside the Top 25. But I'm also making the case how OSU is no invincible team from being Challenged by "merely" decent teams. They were FAR from flawless last year but ended the season kinda seeming like that. They won the championship, shook things up at QB coming into this year (in a good way, but, you can't please all 3 QBs at the same time) -- and COULD have a championship hangover.

I think it's more that you Want Expectations of OSU winning 72-24. No, I don't Expect it to be 36-28 like that simulation. :) But by DEFAULT, I think NIU will be more self-improved than OSU -- as OSU cannot compare to the end of their year last year + championship hangover & QB situation potentially not being for the best.

I would Expect OSU to win by the spread if the spread is reasonable. BUT, I don't think it's unreasonable At All if the game rolls much like the Buffalo @ OSU game in 2013, where Buffalo played close after OSU jumped out to a huge early lead (40-20, OSU wins).

2014 OSU:
@Navy: 34-17 WON
VaTech: 35-21 LOST (VaTech beat WMU 35-17 at home in 2014)
Then Crushed Kent, Cinci, @Maryland, Rutgers
@PSU: 31-24 WON in OT
Crushed Illinois
Beat MSU
@Minn: 31-24 WON

What I'm saying is they're not invincible to give them a good punch in the mouth! :) That's not ragging on NIU at all!

I say the same concept about WMU who plays them after NIU. If NIU gets crushed without OSU thinking about it, that will help WMU. If NIU challenges OSU and OSU plays sloppy and wins 44-31, or Somehow even closer due to turnovers... that will be bad for WMU, because OSU will want to "make a statement" against mid-majors and to the B10 entering into it right after that.

PS: They shut out Wisconsin -- the only other team shut out than Kent State -- because Wisconsin's newer coach was leaving and it was a punch in their stomach, all while OSU was at their peak rearing for the end of the season. They still would have beat Wisconsin. More like 41-28.

(06-12-2015 06:46 PM)toddjnsn Wrote:  PS: They shut out Wisconsin -- the only other team shut out than Kent State -- because Wisconsin's newer coach was leaving and it was a punch in their stomach, all while OSU was at their peak rearing for the end of the season. They still would have beat Wisconsin. More like 41-28.

I really would like to know how you come up with some of this stuff lol, What would the final be if Elliott had a migraine, Urban was constipated, and Gordon just ate some bad cheese?