Our program wasn't as bad off as it looked in '13.

And even people on our board agree that MAC was down last year compared to other seasons which helped our turnaround.

To his credit Fleck learned from his rookie mistakes and grew into the job.

Once is a fluke, twice is a coincidence, three times is a trend. Even Ron English was MAC COY once. Hopefully Fleck will keep positive momentum going this Fall and beyond.

Eastern is coming from a lot further back than we were. Difference is you've got an experienced HC who's a proven winner, just like Harkie.

(06-03-2015 09:49 AM)MajorHoople Wrote:  Jim Harkema didn't have a winning season at Eastern until his fourth.

The next Hurons won MAC and Cal Bowl.

Went from one win his first year to two, to four, then six before That Championship Season.

Major, unfortunately we don't have the "luxury" of being patient while sitting through a 4-5 year rebuilding project. You have to understand we haven't had a winning season in 20 years! No way in hell you can ask alumni like me who have sat through all 20 years to wait another 3 years to be respectable. Imagine if WMU hadn't had a winning season in 20 years. I doubt that you would be very patient. Mind you, that winning season 20 seasons ago...6-5!!! This is ridiculous.

(06-03-2015 09:05 AM)Ken Barna Wrote:  Dear Bob,
I'll set you off even more. Eastern will win five or six games this coming season.

Yeah Ken, just like you picked Eastern to beat Toledo last year...and WMU and CMU and UMass and NIU...Ken, get off the fence. If you are bold enough to predict 5-6 wins, why not go all in and predict a winning season?

Dear Bob,
Predictions are just that. They may be based on certain facts that seem apparent at the time, or they may be just a feeling that someone has about a particular game. If they end up being wrong, so what? Did the people at Northern Illinois, have a mass suicide because their predictions of how last season's basketball was going to be so improved, and it wasn't?
What if Western ends this coming season at 6-6? It will mean only that a lot of people were wrong, and there is always next year. Athletic contests are played because no matter who may be favored in any particular game, doesn't mean they always win. Just like Eastern is not always going to lose.

I've been consistent about my expectations this year which is and has been 3-4 wins. But more importantly than that I want to see us competitive in every MAC game. E Tough and Close the Gap are great slogans but I want to see those actually executed on the field. The NIU game gave us a glimpse of what can be accomplished we just need to be as competitive each game.

I'm very comfortable with Bell at RB, I feel we have a solid group of RBs, one decent WR in Creel. I'm not as comfortable with the TE situation or OL. EMU has missed a solid burner at WR ever since Reed. I do believe one of the incoming frosh WRs has the potential to be a play maker.

Another reason for hope is that D Reed's unfortunate death and the outcomes of that has hung over this team the past two years.

On defense I'm comfortable that Harris, O Conner will continue to improve but they need a solid impact NT. Our LB is deep especially with Spearman coming back. Again a area of weakness is the DB and hopefully that sorts itself out.

Punting should be okay with Barnes and Mulder at PK. We'll need a new return guy since Allen left. Overall depth at some positions will be thin and not experienced.

Dear emu79,
I agree with your idea that we need Eastern to be competitive, and your analysis of the various positions. I'm sure it was a typo, Bell at quarterback, not running back. To add my two cents, I have heard that Coach Creighton is willing to use incoming freshmen, if they beat out the starters at any position.

I'll repeat what I posted before:

In recent years, we've had two win seaons, one of which was FCS.

This year, 3 or 4 FBS wins would be a big, big improvement and show that the trajectory has turned up.

It isn't necessary to win 6 wins and be bowl eligible for the program to show progress.

(06-04-2015 08:50 AM)emu steve Wrote:  I'll repeat what I posted before:

In recent years, we've had two win seaons, one of which was FCS.

This year, 3 or 4 FBS wins would be a big, big improvement and show that the trajectory has turned up.

It isn't necessary to win 6 wins and be bowl eligible for the program to show progress.

Totally agree with you. Slow and steady progress. If we win 3-4 FBS games recruiting outcomes should improve as well.

I'm a bit discouraged that EMU is the only MAC team without a single verbal for 2016. However it is VERY early and the summer camps are just beginning. Rivals has us with 100 offers out so far.

(06-04-2015 09:16 AM)emu79 Wrote:  

(06-04-2015 08:50 AM)emu steve Wrote:  I'll repeat what I posted before:

In recent years, we've had two win seaons, one of which was FCS.

This year, 3 or 4 FBS wins would be a big, big improvement and show that the trajectory has turned up.

It isn't necessary to win 6 wins and be bowl eligible for the program to show progress.

Totally agree with you. Slow and steady progress. If we win 3-4 FBS games recruiting outcomes should improve as well.

I'm a bit discouraged that EMU is the only MAC team without a single verbal for 2016. However it is VERY early and the summer camps are just beginning. Rivals has us with 100 offers out so far.

What 3 or 4 FBS wins would show is that CC can win without great talent (RE had much better talent but did not win).

If the wins start coming, the talent will follow...

(06-04-2015 08:50 AM)emu steve Wrote:  I'll repeat what I posted before:

In recent years, we've had two win seaons, one of which was FCS.

This year, 3 or 4 FBS wins would be a big, big improvement and show that the trajectory has turned up.

It isn't necessary to win 6 wins and be bowl eligible for the program to show progress.

Progress is a subjective term. If they are last again in nearly all defensive and offensive categories and continue to get pounded by good teams, you cannot really say progress has been made. However, realistically, it should be hard not to show progress because last year was so brutal. All that said, I am racking my brain to find 3 or 4 wins.

(06-04-2015 10:45 AM)Bob Wickersham Wrote:  

(06-04-2015 08:50 AM)emu steve Wrote:  I'll repeat what I posted before:

In recent years, we've had two win seaons, one of which was FCS.

This year, 3 or 4 FBS wins would be a big, big improvement and show that the trajectory has turned up.

It isn't necessary to win 6 wins and be bowl eligible for the program to show progress.

Progress is a subjective term. If they are last again in nearly all defensive and offensive categories and continue to get pounded by good teams, you cannot really say progress has been made. However, realistically, it should be hard not to show progress because last year was so brutal. All that said, I am racking my brain to find 3 or 4 wins.

It's called statistics and probabilities:

If we are 40% (probability of success) for at least the first four game we have 1.6 wins there (most likely 2 wins, maybe 1 and maybe 3). That's how probabilities are calculated.

P(4 Ws) = .4 x. 4. x. 4. x .4

P(0 Ws) = .6 x .6. x .6 x .6

and so on for exactly 1W, exactly 2Ws, exactly 3Ws.

Then we have 8 conference games where probabilities range from say .10 (10%) to games maybe .6 (60%) e.g., a weak team visiting Rynearson.

Now a statistician would say, best guess say 3 Ws BUT can't tell you which 3.

(06-04-2015 10:45 AM)Bob Wickersham Wrote:  

(06-04-2015 08:50 AM)emu steve Wrote:  I'll repeat what I posted before:

In recent years, we've had two win seaons, one of which was FCS.

This year, 3 or 4 FBS wins would be a big, big improvement and show that the trajectory has turned up.

It isn't necessary to win 6 wins and be bowl eligible for the program to show progress.

Progress is a subjective term. If they are last again in nearly all defensive and offensive categories and continue to get pounded by good teams, you cannot really say progress has been made. However, realistically, it should be hard not to show progress because last year was so brutal. All that said, I am racking my brain to find 3 or 4 wins.

I think ODU, Wyoming, Ball State, Army, Akron, and Miami are possible/potential wins.

Add CMU and UMass to that list with some luck.

Does that mean 8 wins? Nope - only in my dreams. But I assume we will be competitive and go into these games with an expectation of success.

I've got three/four games as likely losses - the usual suspects.

(06-04-2015 01:42 PM)Huron Boy Wrote:  

(06-04-2015 10:45 AM)Bob Wickersham Wrote:  

(06-04-2015 08:50 AM)emu steve Wrote:  I'll repeat what I posted before:

In recent years, we've had two win seaons, one of which was FCS.

This year, 3 or 4 FBS wins would be a big, big improvement and show that the trajectory has turned up.

It isn't necessary to win 6 wins and be bowl eligible for the program to show progress.

Progress is a subjective term. If they are last again in nearly all defensive and offensive categories and continue to get pounded by good teams, you cannot really say progress has been made. However, realistically, it should be hard not to show progress because last year was so brutal. All that said, I am racking my brain to find 3 or 4 wins.

I think ODU, Wyoming, Ball State, Army, Akron, and Miami are possible/potential wins.

Add CMU and UMass to that list with some luck.

Does that mean 8 wins? Nope - only in my dreams. But I assume we will be competitive and go into these games with an expectation of success.

I've got three/four games as likely losses - the usual suspects.

I agree with you, H.B. We need to win 3 of those first 6 you mention and 1 of the other 6.

That is one way to '4'...

Which 4 - I don't have a clue.