Lurker Above
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RE: ACC Network Update
(05-30-2015 12:01 PM)GTFletch Wrote: (05-30-2015 11:44 AM)Lurker Above Wrote: [quote='GTFletch' pid='12093651' dateline='1433001020']
Ok...Being an ACC Fan I was thrilled to hear that the SEC network only took the SEC 8 million per school a head of the ACC (However we need to see all P5 Conf FY 15 dollars before we crown the off-season champions)
Since you started a new thread about my posts I thought it was appropriate to repost both of them here:
RE: CIncy and ECU to Big 12 within 1 month?
(Today 07:04 AM)Rabbit_in_Red Wrote:
The ACCN IS going to happen. Anyone with half a brain knows it's going to happen. The ACC schools are all going to stay put. They signed that GOR because they didn't want to break apart. They could've gotten out when the getting was good, but didn't. Agreed, the BigXII needs to quit dreaming about ACC schools. It's not going to happen. The only conferences the BigXII's going to raid will be the American or the Mountain West.
Anyone with both halves of their brain knows nothing is certain.
An ACCN is unlikely, I'm truly sorry to say. The ACC schools, on average, are too small in football. More importantly, the ACC severely messed up when they expanded and did not reserve the extra conference games as possible ACCN games, or maybe they wanted to but the new "left over" conference games, the ones left after ESPN and the others who would pick after ESPN (Raycom and those who bought games from ESPN and Raycom), would not command enough carriage rights. Therefore, the ACC has no games to put on an ACCN. It would not be enough to just buy back the Raycom games, that would still not be enough quality content.
The ACC also missed the opportunity to have ESPN shop their network when ESPN and all of the other Disney properties were renegotiating new carriage contracts. There is little possibility an ACCN gets traction being pushed on carriers by itself, even with ESPN doing the pushing. Remember, the Longhorn Network could not even get in the vast majority of homes in the State of Texas until it was bundled with ESPN/Disney properties. Those contracts have already been written and likely will not end until 4 years from now, on average. By then a new conference network might not be that big of a moneymaker, especially with the preponderance of private schools.
It is so bad for the ACC that I cannot even see an ACCN created if ND goes all in because the ACC and ND both made a huge mistake by contracting to play 5 ND/ACC football games per year and selling such to ESPN. Because of ND's contract with NBC, if ND became a full member and played 8 conference games, if NBC retains 4, that is only 4 ACC conference games. That could probably be pushed to 6 ND ACC conference games by negotiating NBC covering 2 or 3 of ND's non-ACC conference games, and going to a 9 games conference schedule, but 6 ND ACC conference games is only one more than the ACC has now. One more ND ACC conference game is not going to make an ACCN viable.
The only way I can see an ACCN happen in the next four years is for the ACC to get ND all in, and for Texas and four other schools that move the needle also join. Something like OU, OSU, TT and WV, or OU, WV, UCONN and CINN (more basketball). That is not likely to happen for three reasons. First, ESPN already owns a majority of those teams' media rights with FOX owning a large second stake. You would be asking ESPN to pay more for what it already owns and paying off FOX or giving FOX a slice of the ACC pie, and the latter is not likely since ESPN probably loves having a 100% stake in the ACC. Second, good luck breaking up the Big 12; it is doable, but because of the first reason, why would ESPN want to make such investment? Third, if the Big 12 can be broken up and the pieces be consumed, there are bigger fish in the sea than the ACC that would be doing the feasting on the biggest and tastiest parts, the SEC and B1G.
Not trolling, just honest analysis.
Lurker Above
RE: CIncy and ECU to Big 12 within 1 month?
(Today 09:36 AM)GTFletch Wrote:
(Today 09:29 AM)chess Wrote:
So, why can't the ACC buy or merge Raycom into an ACC Network?
They can and they will have to to create the ACCN since Raycom has third third rights! That is why most ACC fans think the 2016 launch date is a bit soon and expect a launch between 2016 and 2018...
That is a common misconception. Buying back Raycom's games will not be enough. There is not enough content in those games. Those are games ESPN did not really care about. The fourth best ACC weekend matchup is not going to move the needle. By comparison, when the SECN started it was able to put the TAMA/SC game on the SEC the first week. That was important because both Texas and SC cable rights were a targeted low hanging fruit, but what most people failed to realize how ESPN and the SEC were able to do this. CBS still got to pick first, and ESPN still needed to have 2 or 3 good SEC games on ESPN and ESPN2 in order to maintain those networks' value. The SECN was able to match TAMA and SC because the SEC had enough compelling programing to show that weekend and throughout the year on multiple networks. The ACC just does not have that content, not just because they have too many mediocre football teams and small private schools, but they have already sold all of the marketable games to ESPN. The only way they get more marketable content is to expand to 20 teams, as I discussed above.
Another thing. Buying back those games is easier said than done. As to Raycom, if they sell them back they are out of business. If the ACC incorporates them then the ACC and ESPN are sharing limited profits 3 ways. That might be acceptable, but the really hard part would be buying back the games Raycom sold, especially the ones sold to FOX. Do you think FOX wants to sell those much needed games and be excluded from any ACC content with their new FOX Sports 1 and 2? Hardly. If it were possible to buy back the games FOX acquired it would be too expensive to make a profit.
Lurker Above
I understand until there is actually an ACCN on TV, you do not want to acknowledge that an ACCN is being developed... I am ok with that! The bottomline is it is coming....For ACC fans it is not a matter of if, it is when...2016 it may not, by 2018 it will..
How long did you say an ACCN would be coming in 2016? Of course it will not be 2016 because if it were it would have been announced at the spring meeting, or if they were close, they would be promoting the network idea to generate public support to get the parties across the finish line.
So what do we know? The ACC has wanted a network since 2013, if not 2012. There is no ACCN 3 or 4 years later.
What really changes from 2016 to 2017? One less year of tier 3 rights to buy back? If that were all I would think the ACC takes the economic hit to get the PR benefit of getting the network announced. If it is not economically feasible in 2016 it likely will not be in 2017.
2018? The ACC may not be the same conference by then. That is a long time not to loose at least one member, and if such happens others likely leave and the value of an ACCN certainly would fall with such instability.
You are desperately holding onto the line given by Swofford, and parroted by the Wake Forrest AD and a few others that goes something like, "An ACCN will happen eventually because the population footprint is too large for it not to be profitable and everyone needs to understand these things take time." OK, that could be true, but more likely it is wishful thinking if not outright deceit by Swofford. He knows everyone in the ACC wants an ACCN, he knows he helped chain the ACC to their present media rights agreements, he knows schools were considering leaving and he had to paint a rosy picture financially to get them all to stay.
So what does Swofford do? He says a whole lot of nothing over and over claiming they are doing their due diligence, saying ESPN was doing the same thing, and saying he believes a network will one day happen, and after the ACC GOR was signed, he changes the line to he believes an ACC will happen years down the road, just be patient.
And you're 100% sure an ACCN will happen by 2018?
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