(05-28-2015 09:02 AM)13thOwl Wrote:  

(05-28-2015 08:10 AM)Owl 69/70/75 Wrote:  

(05-27-2015 03:21 PM)Tiki Owl Wrote:  Quick look says we gave up 233 runs of which 173 were earned.....60 unearned
A&M gave up 202 runs with 163 earned.....39 unearned
UT gave up 206 with 177 earned.......29 unearned.
Pretty big difference I would say. It is amazing that for the three teams the number of earned runs given up is so close.

Excellent point.

Now I'm going to go SABR on you and plug them into Bill James's Pythagorean wins and losses formula (runs scored squared, divided by the sum of the squares of runs scored and runs allowed, times games played, equals expected number of wins). We have scored 317 and allowed 233, for a Pythagorean winning percentage of 0.649, or 35.7 wins in 55 games. We have actually won 35, so it's pretty close, as it tends to be.

If we have 21 fewer unearned runs, like A&M, the expected numbers go to 0.691 and 38.
If we have 31 fewer unearned runs, like Texas, the expected numbers go to 0.711 and 39.

Not quite the 10 wins that Walt claims, but somewhere between 3 and 4 additional wins is still a very significant number. Would that get us a host slot? If you assume that those 3 or 4 wins would most likely have come in games with our biggest defensive meltdowns, then it might well have:

1) given us a season series win over a team that is hosting,
2) kept us alive longer in the conference tournament, giving us a shot at 40 wins and the tournament title to add to the regular season title,
3) given us another win against a high profile opponent

And that probably at least gets us into the conversation.

At the very least, had we done those things I think the mood of this board heading into the tournament would be a lot more positive.

Thanks for the above work.

+1

(05-27-2015 04:21 PM)mrbig Wrote:  defensive efficiency = 1 - (H - HR) / (AB - SO - HR + SH + SF).

2015: .693
2014: .714
2013: .724
2012: .716
2011: .676
2010: .711 (old bats)

UT: .722
A&M: .674
LSU: .714
Vandy: .712
UCLA: .722
TCU: .723
DBU: .695

So out of every 100 balls-in-play, the defense would convert 2-3 more of them into outs the past few years compared to 2015. 1373 balls-in-play in 2015, meaning Rice's 2014 defense would have converted ~27 more of them into outs and the 2013 defense would have converted ~40 more of them into outs. And again, that doesn't include the pass ball / wild pitch issues. Wow was the 2011 defense horrid! That was the year Rendon was basically limited to DH.

I think Byrd would be a better outfielder because of his great speed. Maybe next year he will tried there.

(05-28-2015 06:52 AM)waltgreenberg Wrote:  

(05-28-2015 06:47 AM)MemOwl Wrote:  are we worried mostly about infield defense?

team fielding percentage is a pretty gross statistic for assessing infield defense, I believe.

Agreed, but since our defense has very little range at any position, the fielding percentage is a pretty good reflection on how bad we are. For example, UH's 3B Montemayor may have double digit errors, but he's got great range and has made numerous web gem worthy plays. Hoelscher was like that as well. Unfortunately, we don't have anyone like that on our current team's roster.

I just hope Byrdman is out of the dog house, and back on the active list for this weekend. We'll need him, particularly against left-handed pitching.

(05-28-2015 10:23 AM)OldOwl Wrote:  I think Byrd would be a better outfielder because of his great speed. Maybe next year he will tried there

Speed isn't everything at either position and Byrd was a SS in high school. Also, no guarantee he is back since he is a draft-eligible junior who apparently spent some time in the dog house this year.

(05-28-2015 10:29 AM)mrbig Wrote:  

(05-28-2015 10:23 AM)OldOwl Wrote:  I think Byrd would be a better outfielder because of his great speed. Maybe next year he will tried there

Speed isn't everything at either position and Byrd was a SS in high school. Also, no guarantee he is back since he is a draft-eligible junior who apparently spent some time in the dog house this year.

It would be sweet if he broke out of his hitting funk this weekend. Last year he got hot at the end.

At least at Cougar Field, we shouldn't have bad hops to blame!