(05-27-2015 07:00 AM)CliftonAve Wrote:  The 2010 team had a ton of injuries as well. Vidal Hazelton missed the entire season after one series, Zach Collaros played with a serious injury most of the season, Pead was out a few games, JK missed a couple games, Dominuque Battle and a few others were out as well.

The other thing about 2010 was the absurd turnover margin, stupid penalties and other mental errors. The team shot itself in the foot so many times.

The schedule too. At Fresno at NC State and then home against Oklahoma for your first 3 FBS games as a staff was brutal.

Mix in at West Virginia, at Louisville, etc.....you got what you got. If we played that schedule in 2013, we would have sucked just as bad. Hell, this staff figured out how to lose to Illinois and USF and played one of the weakest schedules in history in their first year.

11-1 BYU only thing keeping the cats from perfection!!!

(05-27-2015 08:40 AM)Dannyboy Wrote:  I failed to put up specific predictions:

September 5 - Alabama A&M WIN
September 12- Temple WIN
September 19- @Miami-Ohio WIN
September 24- @Memphis WIN
October 1-Miami (FL) LOSS
October 16- @BYU LOSS
October 24- UConn WIN
October 31- UCF WIN
November 7- @Houston LOSS
November 14- Tulsa WIN
November 20- @USF WIN
November 28- @ECU LOSS

8-4. Reasoning:

- Special teams. We lost a very good kickoff specialist, our kicker is still very young, and our punting situation is a disaster. These things cost you in close games. I'm an old school football guy and I place a lot of value on field position. Punters are weapons.

- D Line. The DTs were not good last year and it cost us. We couldn't get much pressure without blitzing, and blitzing puts too much on the secondary. Maybe I'm a pessimist, but I don't see any improvement in this area.

When the O doesn't play it's best, we will lose because of these two factors. The offense cannot be expected to perform it's best every week, especially if we have injuries at the QB position (which we always do).

Anyone that can remember Kevin Huber and how he flipped the field would agree. I am convinced that his 70 yard punt was the momentum builder/field flipper that caused the win over NC State in 2011.

6-6 pr 7-5 is a fireable record with this schedule, in this conference with this roster (baring some unexpected injuries). 8-4 and the administration will need to seriously start considering whether this staff is the the one to lead UC where it needs to be. This team should go at least 9-3... 9-3 won't necessarily be a disappointing season, but it is at the low end of what this team should expect. 10-2 seems the most likely record to me, but if things go right this team has the chance to do even more.

(05-27-2015 07:26 AM)BearcatMan Wrote:  

(05-27-2015 07:00 AM)CliftonAve Wrote:  The 2010 team had a ton of injuries as well. Vidal Hazelton missed the entire season after one series, Zach Collaros played with a serious injury most of the season, Pead was out a few games, JK missed a couple games, Dominuque Battle and a few others were out as well.

The other thing about 2010 was the absurd turnover margin, stupid penalties and other mental errors. The team shot itself in the foot so many times.

That's the biggest thing I don't miss about CBJ teams, they were some of the most undisciplined teams, both tactically and penalty-wise, that I've seen this side of the late 80's Miami teams. Say what you will about the in-game coaching and adjustments, but at least Tubs' teams don't get penalized a lot.

Penalties hurt in games, but rarely does a ton of penalties over a season correlate to a bad record. Some of the best teams over the years have also been some of the most penalized.

(05-27-2015 12:16 PM)bearcatmark Wrote:  6-6 pr 7-5 is a fireable record with this schedule, in this conference with this roster (baring some unexpected injuries). 8-4 and the administration will need to seriously start considering whether this staff is the the one to lead UC where it needs to be. This team should go at least 9-3... 9-3 won't necessarily be a disappointing season, but it is at the low end of what this team should expect. 10-2 seems the most likely record to me, but if things go right this team has the chance to do even more.

We are 13-3 in AAC games with this staff. Take out the fluke loss to USF 2 years ago. You have an overtime loss to Ville and butt kick by Memphis when Gunner got hurt. Teams are going to have a hard time stopping the offense, even if they drop 1-2 safeties deep in coverage. I think we get to double digit wins, although Houston and Temple might be stronger, and we get UCF and Miami at Nippert.

(05-27-2015 12:33 PM)SuperFlyBCat Wrote:  

(05-27-2015 12:16 PM)bearcatmark Wrote:  6-6 pr 7-5 is a fireable record with this schedule, in this conference with this roster (baring some unexpected injuries). 8-4 and the administration will need to seriously start considering whether this staff is the the one to lead UC where it needs to be. This team should go at least 9-3... 9-3 won't necessarily be a disappointing season, but it is at the low end of what this team should expect. 10-2 seems the most likely record to me, but if things go right this team has the chance to do even more.

We are 13-3 in AAC games with this staff. Take out the fluke loss to USF 2 years ago. You have an overtime loss to Ville and butt kick by Memphis when Gunner got hurt. Teams are going to have a hard time stopping the offense, even if they drop 1-2 safeties deep in coverage. I think we get to double digit wins, although Houston and Temple might be stronger, and we get UCF and Miami at Nippert.

I agree with you and for every reason you just said. We've been pretty dominant in conference since this staff took over. This is undoubtedly the most talented offense UC has had since 2009. There are questions on defense, but in this conference they shouldn't be enough to derail a high win season.

Seems like BK's teams had a lot of pentalties. Didnt matter...they outscored their problems.

(05-27-2015 12:36 PM)bearcatmark Wrote:  

(05-27-2015 12:33 PM)SuperFlyBCat Wrote:  

(05-27-2015 12:16 PM)bearcatmark Wrote:  6-6 pr 7-5 is a fireable record with this schedule, in this conference with this roster (baring some unexpected injuries). 8-4 and the administration will need to seriously start considering whether this staff is the the one to lead UC where it needs to be. This team should go at least 9-3... 9-3 won't necessarily be a disappointing season, but it is at the low end of what this team should expect. 10-2 seems the most likely record to me, but if things go right this team has the chance to do even more.

We are 13-3 in AAC games with this staff. Take out the fluke loss to USF 2 years ago. You have an overtime loss to Ville and butt kick by Memphis when Gunner got hurt. Teams are going to have a hard time stopping the offense, even if they drop 1-2 safeties deep in coverage. I think we get to double digit wins, although Houston and Temple might be stronger, and we get UCF and Miami at Nippert.

I agree with you and for every reason you just said. We've been pretty dominant in conference since this staff took over. This is undoubtedly the most talented offense UC has had since 2009. There are questions on defense, but in this conference they shouldn't be enough to derail a high win season.

Salute

(05-27-2015 12:36 PM)bearcatmark Wrote:  

(05-27-2015 12:33 PM)SuperFlyBCat Wrote:  

(05-27-2015 12:16 PM)bearcatmark Wrote:  6-6 pr 7-5 is a fireable record with this schedule, in this conference with this roster (baring some unexpected injuries). 8-4 and the administration will need to seriously start considering whether this staff is the the one to lead UC where it needs to be. This team should go at least 9-3... 9-3 won't necessarily be a disappointing season, but it is at the low end of what this team should expect. 10-2 seems the most likely record to me, but if things go right this team has the chance to do even more.

We are 13-3 in AAC games with this staff. Take out the fluke loss to USF 2 years ago. You have an overtime loss to Ville and butt kick by Memphis when Gunner got hurt. Teams are going to have a hard time stopping the offense, even if they drop 1-2 safeties deep in coverage. I think we get to double digit wins, although Houston and Temple might be stronger, and we get UCF and Miami at Nippert.

I agree with you and for every reason you just said. We've been pretty dominant in conference since this staff took over. This is undoubtedly the most talented offense UC has had since 2009. There are questions on defense, but in this conference they shouldn't be enough to derail a high win season.

Exactly, if we just have a statistically " normal" year pertaining to injuries, the defense would have to be a complete steaming pile of cow dung to only win 7 games with this offense. Who the heck do you focus on taking away on our offense? Any of the 4 wideouts that line up can torch you on any given play, and we have what? The top 8 back from last year, or any of the 3 backs that take a hand off are a threat to take it to the house every time they touch the ball, and oh yeah, we have some guy named Kiel at QB, who I hear is pretty good too.

September 5 - Alabama A&M WIN
September 12- Temple WIN
September 19- @Miami-Ohio WIN
September 24- @Memphis WIN
October 1-Miami (FL) WIN
October 16- @BYU LOSS
October 24- UConn WIN
October 31- UCF WIN
November 7- @Houston LOSS
November 14- Tulsa WIN
November 20- @USF WIN
November 28- @ECU WIN

10-2 / 7-1 Eastern division winner. Faces Navy 9-3 / 6-2 at Nippert in the AAC Championship game. UC wins 31-27 . 11-2 UC awaits on the Section Committee to see if they or Boise St get awarded the Access Bowl .

(05-27-2015 01:04 PM)Bearcat2012 Wrote:  September 5 - Alabama A&M WIN
September 12- Temple WIN
September 19- @Miami-Ohio WIN
September 24- @Memphis WIN
October 1-Miami (FL) WIN
October 16- @BYU LOSS
October 24- UConn WIN
October 31- UCF WIN
November 7- @Houston LOSS
November 14- Tulsa WIN
November 20- @USF WIN
November 28- @ECU WIN

10-2 / 7-1 Eastern division winner. Faces Navy 9-3 / 6-2 at Nippert in the AAC Championship game. UC wins 31-27 . 11-2 UC awaits on the Section Committee to see if they or Boise St get awarded the Access Bowl .

That loss at UH sinks us vs. BSU

If our defense is as bad as many fear, the coaches will likely employ the strategy taken last year of grinding down clock on offense to keep the D off the field. Ww will be running the football and throwing short to mid range passes to move the chains.

I know the punting game still is a big question mark but do not forget Tuberville likes to pooch punt (aka Bendon Kay in 2012). I also suspect we will be going for it a lot on 4th down. gantz showed s lot of promise last year as a freshman. They brought in s JUCO to kickoff.

I think Houston will be interesting this year... First year/first time Head Coaches ALWAYS have a steep learning curve. It's the nature of the beast. And Herman is a first year/first time Head Coach. That gives the edge to UC, even though we're playing at Houston. The other thing is that playing at Houston is nowhere near as intimidating as playing at ECU.

I don't know...i think 8 wins is about right. We have BS up the middle on defense. Sorry but teams with any kind of between the tackle running game will run the ball down our throats all game. We will have to outgun people...and that's all well and good, unless Kiel goes down again.

Will be disappointed with anything less than 10-2. We had a bad defense last year, but managed to be in the game with eventual national champs OSU. Needed some help from zebras to seal that one. Our running game should be better. 3rd year of this staff should result in overall better consistency. I think we win one of the two big games (BYU and Canes) but this staff seems prone to dropping one to a lesser team. I know our D scares everyone, but Im going to be more optimistic. If the team can develop a level of toughness; not letting a game get away, a la Memphis last year, we should be golden. 11-1 is my target.

(05-27-2015 08:31 PM)Bearcats#1 Wrote:  I don't know...i think 8 wins is about right. We have BS up the middle on defense. Sorry but teams with any kind of between the tackle running game will run the ball down our throats all game. We will have to outgun people...and that's all well and good, unless Kiel goes down again.

What is this BS you speak of? I do not think that any of us know what we have on the D Line till those that were held out of spring play. I will reserve my judgement till at least higher ground, and maybe not till we play Temple.

(05-27-2015 10:07 PM)rtaylor Wrote:  

(05-27-2015 08:31 PM)Bearcats#1 Wrote:  I don't know...i think 8 wins is about right. We have BS up the middle on defense. Sorry but teams with any kind of between the tackle running game will run the ball down our throats all game. We will have to outgun people...and that's all well and good, unless Kiel goes down again.

What is this BS you speak of? I do not think that any of us know what we have on the D Line till those that were held out of spring play. I will reserve my judgement till at least higher ground, and maybe not till we play Temple.

Personally, I am worried about Dts that get no push and undersized linebackers. We need someone from the following to step up: Allonce, Tongamoa, Oglesby(fr), Burton, or Brougton. Not exactly a group that has distinguished themselves. I have left Pace off this list, since he should be more than serviceable. This is a recipe for getting steamrolled.

(05-28-2015 06:48 AM)rosewater Wrote:  

(05-27-2015 10:07 PM)rtaylor Wrote:  

(05-27-2015 08:31 PM)Bearcats#1 Wrote:  I don't know...i think 8 wins is about right. We have BS up the middle on defense. Sorry but teams with any kind of between the tackle running game will run the ball down our throats all game. We will have to outgun people...and that's all well and good, unless Kiel goes down again.

What is this BS you speak of? I do not think that any of us know what we have on the D Line till those that were held out of spring play. I will reserve my judgement till at least higher ground, and maybe not till we play Temple.

Personally, I am worried about Dts that get no push and undersized linebackers. This is a recipe for getting steamrolled. We should be fine at DE.

Yeah, it doesn't look too good at the moment. I'm hopeful someone like Kevin Mouhon can come in and be the type of player this year that the recruiting services felt like he would be, but we're going to rely on two guys who have never played D1 football to be heavy rotation players at DT (Allonce and Tongamoa) and LB (Minor and Kinard)...and that's extremely troublesome without having seen them play in person.

(05-28-2015 06:55 AM)BearcatMan Wrote:  

(05-28-2015 06:48 AM)rosewater Wrote:  

(05-27-2015 10:07 PM)rtaylor Wrote:  

(05-27-2015 08:31 PM)Bearcats#1 Wrote:  I don't know...i think 8 wins is about right. We have BS up the middle on defense. Sorry but teams with any kind of between the tackle running game will run the ball down our throats all game. We will have to outgun people...and that's all well and good, unless Kiel goes down again.

What is this BS you speak of? I do not think that any of us know what we have on the D Line till those that were held out of spring play. I will reserve my judgement till at least higher ground, and maybe not till we play Temple.

Personally, I am worried about Dts that get no push and undersized linebackers. This is a recipe for getting steamrolled. We should be fine at DE.

Yeah, it doesn't look too good at the moment. I'm hopeful someone like Kevin Mouhon can come in and be the type of player this year that the recruiting services felt like he would be, but we're going to rely on two guys who have never played D1 football to be heavy rotation players at DT (Allonce and Tongamoa) and LB (Minor and Kinard)...and that's extremely troublesome without having seen them play in person.

I liked what I saw out of Tongamoa and Kinard does have good size but troubled nonetheless.