(05-26-2015 11:33 AM)Eichorst Wrote:  My point is simply that C-USA might prefer 12 teams instead of 14, and they might wait and see if anyone else considers dropping football before making any moves.

Nobody in C-USA is dropping football. The only other moves outward in the next 5 years could possibly be UTEP to the MWC or maybe Rice to the AAC. That's about it.
12 would be best.

Tell me what the next CUSA deal will be worth and I can give you a pretty good estimate how many members there will be.

(05-26-2015 10:56 AM)Eichorst Wrote:  Isn't it equally likely the league will drop to 12 members? If UAB was in such a precarious financial position and lacking in administrative support, what's to say that other C-USA universities aren't in the same boat? For instance.... what about Southern Miss?

They have a small athletic budget, among the lowest or possibly the lowest in C-USA:
http://sports.usatoday.com/ncaa/finances/

Many are suspecting that Southern Miss will never be able to field a P5-competitive team again:
http://www.blackandgoldreview.com/2014/0...y-football

And there is outcry against the athletic department's lack of budget cuts in a time of cutbacks at all levels at the university:
http://usmfreepress.org/2013/04/15/athle...kes-a-hit/

Finally, each member's share of the CFB Playoff money will be greater in the C-USA if they must split revenues 12 ways instead of 13 ways. C-USA has a financial incentive to remove a member. When suddenly Southern Miss is the odd team out, who would vote to keep them in the league?

It seems like a storm is brewing against Southern Miss. I know this is a bit hyperbolic, but I think there could be pressure to move C-USA down to 12 teams, and Southern Miss looks like the greatest possibility to be expelled.

See the thread on the USA Today revenue report. USM doesn't spend a lot by CUSA standards, but they have the 3rd lowest subsidy of any of the G5 schools. Only ULL and Idaho (the lowest spender) have smaller subsidies. The AAC and MWC schools often have huge subsidies. But most of the G5 is subsidizing in the $15-$25 million range, not a whole lot lower than the AAC/MWC schools. USM, however, is just over $9 million.

Candidates since no more Texas schools unless one leaves.

New Mexico State is a no go. UTEP does not want them in and New Mexico does not want them in MWC. If UTEP does leave? West Texas A&M could be a likely target since their stadium is 20,000 enough to be an FBS school. They were rivals to some of the Texas schools and Tulsa in the past.

Washburn was a former conference mates with Tulsa and them. Topeka, Kansas is not small market.

Missouri State with the Springfield market, and they are expanding their stadium.

Northern Iowa wants FBS big time.

North Dakota State would bring a winning sports university into the fold.

Midwestern State Texas with their 14500 seat stadium could fit. Just need to add more seats. Wichita Falls is a large market.

Central Arkansas with the Conway/Little Rock market could work. They could play most of their big home games at War Memorial Stadium in Little Rock. Arkansas did for a while.

Chattanooga might work, but they might be blocked by Middle Tennessee State.

Jacksonville State, since they can't get into the Sun Belt, they might be trying for the C-USA spot.

Alabama State does have an FBS size stadium in a large tv market.

North Alabama could be attractive. It could help raise their image to attract more students.

Georgia Southern could bring competition to the rest of the east.

Coastal Carolina, you don't know how will they will do.

James Madison been mentioned before.

Delaware, a top choice.

Toledo, Ohio U. or Bowling Green could be a top Ohio school that can be a travel partner for Marshall.

Towson in Maryland could bring the Baltimore market.

Stony Brook could use a bigger image.

Buffalo another new market.

U. Mass. would be great. They are in western Mass. far away from any pro teams. They could do better than Boston College wise.

New Hampshire is reportedly doing some upgrades on their stadium.

Maine had history of defeating P5 schools before.

Northern Illinois might go if Ball State would come with them. Those 2 could be travel partners.

FYI: Jax St. Is in the same market uab is in: bham tuscaloosa, anniston the #1 college football market and #40 media market.

UCA isn't that far removed from publicly contemplating returning to Division II.

The ship has sailed on an FBS CAA unless if C-USA splits. If that happens, Stony Brook, UMass, Delaware, and James Madison would join C-USA East. If C-USA East is the legal successor to C-USA and has more than 4 spots open, you might drag in Towson as well. The only thing is right now C-USA really has to get back to 14, if not 16, and more importantly, stay there for five or more years, before it can do the Big East-style split.

No Division II school is joining C-USA. Jacksonville State and Alabama State aren't jumping ahead of South Alabama or Troy. Chattanooga isn't ready for the Sun Belt, much less C-USA.

Missouri State is the only MVFC school with a shot at C-USA, and even that is a faint one. They have more to gain by being in a conference with Arkansas State, but C-USA will have either no vacancy or one vacancy.

If San Marcos doesn't float away I would actually think Texas State may have a better shot. TXST and UTSA will do more to penetrate the Austin/San Antonio market in unison, and Austin is quickly becoming one of the largest cities in this country.

(05-26-2015 08:43 PM)chargeradio Wrote:  UCA isn't that far removed from publicly contemplating returning to Division II.

The ship has sailed on an FBS CAA unless if C-USA splits. If that happens, Stony Brook, UMass, Delaware, and James Madison would join C-USA East. If C-USA East is the legal successor to C-USA and has more than 4 spots open, you might drag in Towson as well. The only thing is right now C-USA really has to get back to 14, if not 16, and more importantly, stay there for five or more years, before it can do the Big East-style split.

No Division II school is joining C-USA. Jacksonville State and Alabama State aren't jumping ahead of South Alabama or Troy. Chattanooga isn't ready for the Sun Belt, much less C-USA.

Missouri State is the only MVFC school with a shot at C-USA, and even that is a faint one. They have more to gain by being in a conference with Arkansas State, but C-USA will have either no vacancy or one vacancy.

If San Marcos doesn't float away I would actually think Texas State may have a better shot. TXST and UTSA will do more to penetrate the Austin/San Antonio market in unison, and Austin is quickly becoming one of the largest cities in this country.

Hadn't really thought of that angle but for an equitable split to happen down the road, east/west most likely, 1 or more additions are needed and, as you stated, the required time has to pass.

(05-26-2015 08:02 PM)DavidSt Wrote:  Candidates since no more Texas schools unless one leaves.

New Mexico State is a no go. UTEP does not want them in and New Mexico does not want them in MWC.

The AD's are going to be getting together to talk having them package themselves together. (how far they get is another thing but both schools are beginning realize that due to the geography, together they are stronger than by themselves in this new era of college realignment)
NMSU is the #1 candidate for CUSA to fill the West Division. The are the easiest addition and the Sunbelt would be glad to let them go. They can help the conference with the Olympic sports by getting a 2 for 1 deal with a trip to El Paso.

(05-27-2015 06:50 AM)MinerInWisconsin Wrote:  

(05-26-2015 08:43 PM)chargeradio Wrote:  UCA isn't that far removed from publicly contemplating returning to Division II.

The ship has sailed on an FBS CAA unless if C-USA splits. If that happens, Stony Brook, UMass, Delaware, and James Madison would join C-USA East. If C-USA East is the legal successor to C-USA and has more than 4 spots open, you might drag in Towson as well. The only thing is right now C-USA really has to get back to 14, if not 16, and more importantly, stay there for five or more years, before it can do the Big East-style split.

No Division II school is joining C-USA. Jacksonville State and Alabama State aren't jumping ahead of South Alabama or Troy. Chattanooga isn't ready for the Sun Belt, much less C-USA.

Missouri State is the only MVFC school with a shot at C-USA, and even that is a faint one. They have more to gain by being in a conference with Arkansas State, but C-USA will have either no vacancy or one vacancy.

If San Marcos doesn't float away I would actually think Texas State may have a better shot. TXST and UTSA will do more to penetrate the Austin/San Antonio market in unison, and Austin is quickly becoming one of the largest cities in this country.

Hadn't really thought of that angle but for an equitable split to happen down the road, east/west most likely, 1 or more additions are needed and, as you stated, the required time has to pass.

I'm not sure those rules are still in effect. They changed in 2011 to try to save the WAC autobid. The Big East, which obviously met the six-schools-for-five-years rule, applied for a waiver, which they easily got. I don't think a new one-bid league would get one.

The new Big East didn't need to apply for a waiver. Because the C7 played together in the same conference, they could become a Division I voting multi-sport conference the moment they turned on the lights.

The original Big East-now known as the American Athletic Conference-actually owes a debt of gratitude to the WAC. Had the WAC not introduced legislation to do away with the continuity rules, the American would not have an automatic bid in basketball. Like the WAC, it just needed to have at least 7 active Division I members, and of course there were plenty of volunteers from C-USA willing to join the American.

(05-27-2015 11:32 AM)chargeradio Wrote:  The new Big East didn't need to apply for a waiver. Because the C7 played together in the same conference, they could become a Division I voting multi-sport conference the moment they turned on the lights.

There was some kind of a process, which I'm having trouble finding traces of on Google. There was a vote by the NCAA Board of Directors.

One factor is that the autobid for the new Big East didn't take a bid from the haves and give it to the have-nots, which a CUSA split would.

Quote:The original Big East-now known as the American Athletic Conference-actually owes a debt of gratitude to the WAC. Had the WAC not introduced legislation to do away with the continuity rules, the American would not have an automatic bid in basketball. Like the WAC, it just needed to have at least 7 active Division I members, and of course there were plenty of volunteers from C-USA willing to join the American.

Paragraph 10, 11

Quote:Without voting to dissolve, the seven schools are expected to move together to form a new league. They would keep their automatic berth in the NCAA basketball tournament because NCAA rules state that as long as a group of seven universities has been in the same league for five years, it keeps its bid after a move together to a new conference.

The remaining Big East schools would probably retain their automatic bid to the NCAA tournament after going through an NCAA process, according to NCAA vice president and former Big East associate commissioner Dan Gavitt. That would mean there would be 32 automatic bids to the field of 68, up from 31.

Not sure why you need a process if the group qualifies by the rule.

Q: Will both leagues get automatic bids in basketball to the NCAA Tournament?

Quote:A: The NCAA Board of Directors will have to approve awarding an extra automatic bid, but that appears to be a formality. Though technically the split decreases the number of at-large bids from 37 to 36 next season, the net impact on NCAA Tournament bids will essentially be zero since both the new Big East and the Conference To Be Named Later will produce multiple bids. What has been overlooked in this whole deal is that a league led by UConn, Cincinnati, Memphis and Temple will be one of the better basketball conferences year in and year out, and perhaps on par with the new Big East.

Again, the NCAA BoD has to approve it. I could be wrong, but I think that the save-the-WAC rule supersedes the continuity-rule. (It's also possible that the continuity rule still applies to new conferences, so a CUSA fission would be legal.)

And without the save-the-WAC rule, FBS realignment looks very different--I'm not sure AAC or CUSA or SBC would qualify.

CUSA UTEP, Rice, USM, UAB, MArshall--nope.
Sun Belt ULL, ULM, stAte, Troy, maybe UALR, USA?

Without the WAC rule as a safety net, everyone's calculations are different.