ACC football schedules, 2015
On the realignment forum, a poster described BYU's future football schedules as "not P5-esque". To demonstrate that they were, I compared them to the schedules of all Big Ten and ACC teams. For each team I used the five year average Sagarin power rating to estimate the strength of each 2015 opponent. I did not try to factor in home or away, mostly because I was too lazy do it.
The ACC results were very similar to those of the Big Ten. Both were, on the whole, not quite as strong as BYU's 2015 schedule, and slightly stronger than Notre Dame's.
The five toughest schedules for ACC schools were:
UVa.........76.1
Ga Tech...75.3
Clemson...74.3
Miami......74.0
Wake.......73.2
The five weakest were:
Duke........68.9
UNC.........70.0
NC State...70.0
FSU..........71.0
Va Tech....72.0
The toughest conference schedules:
Miami........75.8
Ga Tech.....75.6
NC State....75.2
Wake.........75.1
BC.............74.9
The easiest:
UNC...........71.4
Va Tech......71.6
Duke..........71.7
L'ville.........72.8
FSU............73.0
Virginia had by far the toughest OOC schedule. The Top 5:
UVa...........81.4
Clemson....75.7
Ga Tech.... 74.5
L'ville........73.8
Va Tech.....72.8
The Bottom 5:
NC State.....56.4
Duke..........61.4
FSU............65.7
UNC...........66.1
BC.............67.2
I also tracked how many challenging games each team scheduled. By challenging, I used BYU as the minimum standard, or essentially games against the top half of the P5. This is a measure of how many times did a team face a serious risk of losing, on the theory that if a good team plays one team with a rating of 90 and another with a rating of 40, they stand a better chance of losing at least one of them than if they play two teams each with a rating of 65 (even though their schedule has the same average rating). IMO, the one with the more challenging games has the tougher schedule, all other things being equal.
Three ACC schools had as many challenging games as BYU (5). They were UVa, Ga Tech and BC. Four other schools faced 4 challenging opponents each: NC State, Wake, Miami and Clemson. The lowest three were UNC (2) and Va Tech and Duke (1 each).
It appears as if the schedule makers were reading this forum. Of the four NC teams, only Duke and NC State don't meet this year. But FSU, Clemson, Ga Tech and Miami all play each of the other three. Outside its division, Ga tech gets to play Clemson, FSU, Notre Dame and Georgia. If they win the ACCCG and have no more than 1 loss, that schedule would probably help them in the CFP.
Along with its weak OOC schedule, Duke gets the two weakest Atlantic Division teams as its crossovers. That gives them a good shot at bowl eligibility. A weak conference schedule may help UNC overcome having two FCS opponents in their effort to get eligible. BC, on the other hand, has both two FCS opponents and a tough conference schedule, so they are less likely to sniff a bowl this year.
But when it comes to having your weaker teams schedule light OOC for bowl purposes, Virginia apparently didn't get the memo. They face UCLA, Notre Dame and Boise State. Who did London piss off?
More importantly, who did I piss off by posting this?
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