Grizzlies Off-Season Outlook (LONG)
2015 Free Agents:
Marc Gasol --
Kosta Kufos --
Russ Smith ($845k Team Option)
JaMychal Green ($845k Team Option)
Nick Calathes ($1.2M Qualifying Offer)
Jeff Green ($9.2M Player Option)
John Luer ($1.03M Team Option)
Beno Udrih ($2.07M Player Option)
Marc will battle LaMarcus Aldridge for the most coveted player on the market. He wants to stay in Memphis by all accounts, the real question is ...for how much & how long? Also, what happens with jeff Green? He won't get $9M per year on the market, but he could get a longer deal and the promise of more playing time with another team.
For the purpose of this argument let's say we we sign Marc to the max @ $21.6M/year (for 3 years). FWIW I doubt it'll cost THAT much, nor should it. Also, let's assume Green opts in on his PO and remains with the team. Same for Beno.
Assuming that's the case - we'll be paying approx. $66M in salary on just 10 players (the luxury tax kicks in around $77M) That would give us approx. $11M to spend on 3-5 free agents.
Now...
We do have to conserve some of the money in order to keep Conley in 2016-17. Conley currently gets paid less than $10M per year, which is an absolute bargain!
We can expect Conley to jump up to $12-13M per year.
In addition to Conley, we will have to decide if we want to re-sign Courtney Lee. Market price for a player of his caliber at that position is $5-6M per year (what he's making now). He'll be 30 years old after next year and, to date, he only averages 10 ppg. However, his 3pt. numbers are good and this team can't afford to lose what little perimeter shooting we have.
BUT, we do have a first round draft pick that would be going into his 3rd year after next season that could be ready to see a jump in minutes/production. AND BECAUSE OF THAT, I say we let Lee walk after next year in favor of Jordan Adams.
Adams will be making less than $2M per season & Jeff Green - should we choose to keep him after his contract expires next season - won't be making $9M per year anymore. So, those future savings should allow us to use MOST of our $11M in cap space this off-season without any worries.
So...with Marc on board, our attention should turn to securing Kosta Koufos. He's one of the best back-up Centers in the league and is a perfect fit for what we do. Kosta currently makes $3M per year (a bargain), but the market value for a player of his caliber at his position is closer to $5-$6M per year. IMO, we should pony up and keep Kosta at that price.
At that point I would decline to extend a QO to Calathes, especially IF you think Russ Smith can handle 3rd string PG duties @ less than $1M per year. As good as Calathes has been at running the team in spots, he cannot keep a defense honest with his shooting and can't guard quicker guards. I'm not saying he doesn't have value - he wouldn't cost us too much - but the 3rd string PG spot could be a valuable spot to develop a young guy. Especially with a vet like Beno backing up Mike.
I would also let Luer walk - we have JaMychal Green and Jarnell Stokes who can both play 3rd string PF (Jeff Green can play backup 4 when ZBo goes to the bench).
That being said, we keep Russ Smith and JaMychal Green for $1.7M combined.
After all the dust settles, our 2015-16 roster would look like this:
PG: Mike Conley / Beno Udrih / Russ Smith
SG: Courtney Lee / Jordan Adams / Vince Carter
SF: Tony Allen / Jeff Green
PF: Zach Randolph / JaMychal Green / Jarnell Stokes
C: Marc Gasol / Kosta Koufos
That's 13 players under contract with approx. $4M to spare - before hitting the luxury tax. BUT, we have 1 draft pick. 1st Round will cost us approx. $1M, SO...we really have a $3M cushion after everything is all said & done.
As far as the draft pick go (I am going to post a thread closer to draft day) I think we should - and will - look towards the future. Jeff Green may be gone. I don't expect Lee to be here after next year. Vince is old. And our power forwards are both 2nd rounders...
(This post was last modified: 05-22-2015 11:06 AM by HometownTiger.)
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