(05-07-2015 03:54 PM)john01992 Wrote: http://www.reddit.com/r/CFB/comments/354...t_shaving/
It's a forum not an article but an interesting observation neverless.
Using the point differential the way the Big XII chose to do today is a flawed tiebreaking system that could cost a team the championship by scoring too much.
Consider the following scenario…
Team A beats Team B by 10 points.
Team A loses to Team C by 12 points.
Team A differential is set at -2.
Now Team B plays Team C
If Team B beats Team C by 7 points or less, Team C wins the tiebreak. (A vs C head to head)
If Team B beats Team C by 9-13 points, Team B wins the tiebreak. (B vs C head to head)
If Team B beats Team C by 15 points or more, Team A wins the tiebreak. (A vs B head to head)
Under this system, Team B could cost themselves the tiebreaker by scoring.
I think this argument is flawed. The point differential comes into play separately as a third option - just before you go to the commissioner's hat.
First comparison is head-to-head. A beat B, B beat C, but C beat A. So, head-to-head tiebreaker still results in a tie. You move on to the next tiebreaker - you don't need to come back later and re-analyze anything about the head-to-head matchups.
Second comparison is record against next best team - team D. If A, B, and C all beat team D, then you move on to the third tiebreaker. This is the most likely scenario if A, B, and C each only have
one conference loss (amongst each other). [But it could be the decisive tiebreaker if A, B, and C each have
two losses, in which case it could eliminate one or two of the contenders).
Third comparison is the point differential. First, there is no indication that the scoring differential is only among the three tied teams. It could be, but I didn't see this specified in any media reports. So, the tiebreaker here could be to simply look at the scoring differential for
all conference games - and then you have your winner. It is very unlikely to have a scoring differential tie for all conference games.
EVEN IF it is the scoring differential from the games amongst the contenders only, you don't go back to the First tiebreaker. A, B, and C are tied after tiebreakers #1 and #2, remember. So, as stated in the hypothetical, if A beats B by 10 and loses to C by 12, A's differential is -2. B stands at -10 and C at +12 before B and C play. No other analysis needed until the B v. C game is played.
If B beats C by 10 or less, C's differential is +2 (+12 minus 10 = +2) and B's differential is 0 (-10 plus 10 = 0). Thus, C wins because +2 > 0 > -2.
If B wins by 12 points or more, C's differential is 0 (+12 minus 12 = 0) and B's differential is +2 (-10 plus 12 = +2. Thus, B wins because +2 > 0> -2.
But, I guess you go to the commissioner's hat if B wins by exactly 11 points - in which case both B's differential and C's differential is +1.
In any event, there is no point-shaving risk, because the more points scored by B the better. If B beats C by 20, B's differential is +10, C's differential is - 8, and A's differential is -2. B wins by virtue of the scoring differential tiebreaker.