The board talk is that Big 12 expansion candidates must bring at least $20 million value to the conference - each - to make expansion worthwhile.

Football Only
But, what if the Big 12 approached it from the perspective to add football-only affiliate-members - similar to how it recently added wrestling-only affiliate-members? No voting rights with regards to conference governance or decisions - no involvement in the conference other than football. It's basically a contractual relationship between the conference and the affiliate (more on that below).

For most of the season, the Big 12 can have no more than 5 football games per weekend (10 divided by 2). Many weekends there are only 4 games. That's pretty weak-sauce inventory. If the Big 12 expands, the TV inventory increases. If there are 12 teams, you can have up to 6 games. If there are 14 teams, you can have up to 7 conference games. And so forth. The math obviously doesn't work at the $20 million per new member level.

However, the math easily works from the perspective of the value of the increased conference game inventory - which is all that you would need to attract some football-only affiliate-members.

New Inventory
For sake of argument, look at the Big 12 inventory if you add Navy, Boise St., BYU (the best ratings getters), Cincinnati, Memphis, and ECU (geographic fits).

The following is based on a sample Big 12 schedule weaving in these 6 teams, where most existing Big 12 teams play 6-7 games against existing Big 12 teams and 2-3 games against newbies and where newbies for the most part play 4 games against existing Big 12 teams and 5 games against other newbies. You give up about 25% of the current Big 12 inventory (15 games - or about one game per week), but you add 50 games (about net 3 new games per week). And, you undoubtedly add the revenue from the conference championship game.

Week 4
TV INVENTORY BEFORE
TCU @TTech
OSU@Texas

TV INVENTORY AFTER
Keep: TCU@TTEch
Lose:OSU@Texas
Add:
Texas@Baylor (moved up from Week 14 - CCG weekend)
OSU@Boise St.
ECU@West Virginia
OKlahoma@Cincinnati

Week 5
TV INVENTORY BEFORE
Kansas@Iowa St.
KSU@OSU
Texas@TCU
Baylor@TTech
West Virginia@Oklahoma

TV INVENTORY AFTER
Keep:
Kansas@Iowa St.
KSU@OSU
Texas@TCU
Baylor@TTech
Lose:West Virginia@Oklahoma
Add:
West Virginia@Cincinnati
Oklahoma@Navy
Boise@ECU
BYU@Memphis

...

Week 12
TV INVENTORY BEFORE
West Virginia@Kansas
Baylor@OSU
Iowa St.@Kansas St.
TCU@Oklahoma

TV INVENTORY AFTER
Keep:
West Virginia@Kansas
Baylor@OSU
Lose:Iowa St.@Kansas St. and TCU@Oklahoma
Add:
TTech@BYU
TCU@Boise St.
Cincinnati@Memphis
Navy@ECU

Week 13
TV INVENTORY BEFORE
TTech@Texas
Baylor@TCU
KSU@Kansas
Oklahoma@OSU
Iowa St.@West Virginia

TV INVENTORY AFTER
Keep:
TTech@Texas
Baylor@TCU
KSU@Kansas
Oklahoma@OSU
Iowa St.@West Virginia
Lose: Nothing
Add:
Cincinnati@ECU
Boise St.@BYU
Memphis@Navy

Week 14
TV INVENTORY BEFORE
Texas@Baylor
West Virginia@Kansas St.

TV INVENTORY AFTER
Keep: Texas@Baylor (moved up to Week 4)
Lose: West Virginia@Kansas St.
Add: CONFERENCE CHAMPIONSHIP GAME


Affiliate Payouts
From the affiliate-member perspective, you would only need to break even with the status quo - or may be make a little more $, to make Big 12 football affiliation work.

Boise St., Navy, and BYU are the top available football brands (from a TV ratings and TV $$ payout perspectives). These programs currently make between $4-8 million per year from football money.

Pretty much any other realistic candidate out there (from the AAC or MWC) makes no more than $1.5-$3 million from football and basketball TV rights.

So, to add the SIX football-only affiliate members outlined above, you would only need about $25 million extra to make it worthwhile for them. You would EASILY make this $25 million with the net 35 games created by the expansion.

OR, the Big 12 keep the Tier 1 & 2 rights for all conference games (including conference games involving newbies) as per the current $200 million/year deal (and that money divided only among the original 10 members - ie, $20 million to current Big 12 members) and then allow the affiliate-members to sell for themselves OOC games and conference games not picked up as part of the Tier 1 & 2 packages. That would easily work for the AAC schools, as they would likely make more than the current AAC TV deal just from a couple of Tier 3 Big 12 and OOC games.

But, my hunch is that if you packaged the additional inventory (3 additional conference games per week plus the newbies' OOC games), you could probably land EVERYONE more $$$ than the status quo - and that's not counting the likely increase in the newbies' ticket sales, concessions, and sponsorships because of the better competition.

Olympic Sports
As for Olympic sports homes for the expansion candidates, that's worthy of it's own thread. But, here's my initial take:

Navy (stays Patriot)
BYU (stays WCC)
Cincinnati (Big East)
Memphis (Big East?)
Boise St. (Big West or Big Sky)
ECU (A10? Atlantic Sun? Colonial? CUSA? Sun Belt? Ohio Valley?)

I have not taken the time to read all of your post but enough to point out one of many problems with your secnario. The Big12 schools like OU and Texas make more money from ticket revenue than they get from TV. You have OU giving up two home games to play Navy and Cincy. Have not run the figures lately, but I think it is safe to say OU takes in about $6 million each home game.

They play one and done games and keep most all of that money....or they play block buster games for tv...i.e. Florida State. Alabama Ohio State etc..

Texas does the same...plus Texas has games with USC, Notre Dame and other like schools. Do you think they really want to give those up to play Boise and Cincy etc

I could go on, but sorry it looks like you wasted a whole lot of time and effort proposing something that is completely impractical and has zero chance of happening..

(05-05-2015 05:23 PM)SMUmustangs Wrote:  Just to point out one of many problems with your secnario. The Big12 schools like OU and Texas make more money from ticket revenue than they get from TV. You have OU giving up two home games to play Navy and Cincy. Have not run the figures lately, but I think it is safe to say OU takes in about $6 million each home game.

The Big 12 keeps the 9-game conference schedule, so Oklahoma and Texas still get the same number of OOC games and conference home games. Whether Oklahoma plays West Virginia, Iowa St., Navy or Boise St. IN CONFERENCE is not going to make a big difference in TV ratings or ticket revenue. In fact, some of the new matchups might do better than the status quo.

you missed the part about having a lot of "inventory" that is not really desired means you do not bring in a lot of dollars for all that inventory

ESPN in particular renegotiated with the 10 team Big 12 several years early to up their tier 1 contract for all that "weak sauce" and they did not ask or consider adding a bunch of "weaker sauce" to the mix

and Fox negotiated with a 10 team Big 12 as well for that "limited weak sauce" content and the difference was it was MU and A&M instead of TCU and WVU and when it was all said and done Fox liked the "weak sauce" just fine and on fact Fox cam back to the table along with ESPN for a bit more money to get some better "weak sauce" games

"content' does not matter......"markets" do not matter of the content is not desired and the market is not delivered

(05-05-2015 05:04 PM)YNot Wrote:  Navy (stays Patriot)
BYU (stays WCC)
Cincinnati (Big East)
Memphis (Big East?)
Boise St. (Big West or Big Sky)
ECU (A10? Atlantic Sun? Colonial? CUSA? Sun Belt? Ohio Valley?)

Ignoring the football portion and jumping right on this.

Why would the Big East take on schools with FBS programs? They'd sooner take a couple of teams from the A10 than get football teams back in the picture.

Why would the already 14 team A10 consider taking ECU, a team that would offer literally nothing in basketball? CUSA wouldn't take them thanks to the football bylaw. Not sure the OVC would want them either.

The BIG will be using hockey as a dry run. Expect Ariz St and maybe UConn to join as associates in that sport. USC, Stanford, and other possibilities exist for that sport.

Imagine the following:

"All right OU fans! You've just finished watching the Sooners take on the Cincinatti Bearkats! Tickets are on sale for next week's exciting game as Big 12 play continues with Oklahoma taking on the Pirates of East Carolina!

Juuuusssttttt not seeing it.

But I still hope it happens just to watch the look of horror and disgust on my co-worker's face.

They're not going to. They're in the position the BE was years ago. They're not poaching a P5 conference, they won't expand because they won't dilute their contract, and what's worse is they're limited markets because they're in fewer states than the BE and lower population centers.

(05-05-2015 11:06 PM)jaredf29 Wrote:  They're not going to. They're in the position the BE was years ago. They're not poaching a P5 conference, they won't expand because they won't dilute their contract, and what's worse is they're limited markets because they're in fewer states than the BE and lower population centers.

And the fact that any proposed addition doesn't make them any more money. It cuts into their money and not doesn't offer any compelling match ups. The Bearcats seem to make sense at this point due to WVU's location. But yet, they don't add revenue. BYU, well there is a whole litany against them and for them. BigXII didn't care enough to pursue it. Colorado State seems interesting until you investigate their long term win/loss and what ESPN will pay for them. (nothing) Generic Texas city team, doesn't add any revenue or fan interest outside of Texas, plus could hurt the conference academically. (Rice excluded) Boise, well they drive trucks and have majors in driving trucks, sure they play good football when they aren't driving trucks. What conference other than those truly hard pressed, would want a juco truck driving school in their conference? Then we come to Memphis, who could not add any money to the league. The one thing they are supposedly good at sucks. (i.e. pastner ball) and no one in the conference would sell out if they were on the schedule. UCF and USF, meh. No one cares. Maybe Baylor but their opinion is worth fudge all.

The B12 is not and does not want to expand.

(05-05-2015 05:23 PM)SMUmustangs Wrote:  I have not taken the time to read all of your post but enough to point out one of many problems with your secnario. The Big12 schools like OU and Texas make more money from ticket revenue than they get from TV. You have OU giving up two home games to play Navy and Cincy. Have not run the figures lately, but I think it is safe to say OU takes in about $6 million each home game.

They play one and done games and keep most all of that money....or they play block buster games for tv...i.e. Florida State. Alabama Ohio State etc..

Texas does the same...plus Texas has games with USC, Notre Dame and other like schools. Do you think they really want to give those up to play Boise and Cincy etc

I could go on, but sorry it looks like you wasted a whole lot of time and effort proposing something that is completely impractical and has zero chance of happening..

Texas have played BYU the last 2 seasons, and lost them both including them hosting BYU at home. This could be a new rivalry game.

(05-06-2015 07:19 AM)goodknightfl Wrote:  The B12 is not and does not want to expand.

Yes, but didn't you get the memo? Last year means that without a CCG, the Big 12 will never ever put a team in the playoffs, and the other P5 will never let them have a CCG with 10 teams. Ipso fatso ergo ...

(05-06-2015 08:06 AM)quo vadis Wrote:  

(05-06-2015 07:19 AM)goodknightfl Wrote:  The B12 is not and does not want to expand.

Yes, but didn't you get the memo? Last year means that without a CCG, the Big 12 will never ever put a team in the playoffs, and the other P5 will never let them have a CCG with 10 teams. Ipso fatso ergo ...

The news out of Phoenix is no new expansions and no CCG. So, they will be playing 12 games, and be left out of the playoffs again.

(05-05-2015 05:31 PM)YNot Wrote:  

(05-05-2015 05:23 PM)SMUmustangs Wrote:  Just to point out one of many problems with your secnario. The Big12 schools like OU and Texas make more money from ticket revenue than they get from TV. You have OU giving up two home games to play Navy and Cincy. Have not run the figures lately, but I think it is safe to say OU takes in about $6 million each home game.

The Big 12 keeps the 9-game conference schedule, so Oklahoma and Texas still get the same number of OOC games and conference home games. Whether Oklahoma plays West Virginia, Iowa St., Navy or Boise St. IN CONFERENCE is not going to make a big difference in TV ratings or ticket revenue. In fact, some of the new matchups might do better than the status quo.

OK I understand..like I said I did not waste time reading the entire post. However, what you propose still has zero chance, because the networks have already told the Big12 that the teams you mention (except for BYU) add no value to the conference.

(05-05-2015 07:40 PM)10thMountain Wrote:  Imagine the following:

"All right OU fans! You've just finished watching the Sooners take on the Cincinatti Bearkats! Tickets are on sale for next week's exciting game as Big 12 play continues with Oklahoma taking on the Pirates of East Carolina!

Juuuusssttttt not seeing it.

But I still hope it happens just to watch the look of horror and disgust on my co-worker's face.

Damn... It's CINCINNATI and BEARCATS.

I would add BYU football only. Go to an 8 game schedule and get a champ game for the 2 highest rated teams, play it at Cowboy stadium. Ideally, they would work a schedule deal with the SEC for 1 non-conference game. Or at the very least have Texas play Texas A&M and Kansas play Missouri Thanksgiving weekend. Of course, non of this were happen because the people running the big 12 are fools.

(05-06-2015 09:42 AM)bluesox Wrote:  I would add BYU football only. Go to an 8 game schedule and get a champ game for the 2 highest rated teams, play it at Cowboy stadium. Ideally, they would work a schedule deal with the SEC for 1 non-conference game. Or at the very least have Texas play Texas A&M and Kansas play Missouri Thanksgiving weekend. Of course, non of this were happen because the people running the big 12 are fools.

the people running the Big 12 do not schedule games

(05-06-2015 09:17 AM)SMUmustangs Wrote:  OK I understand..like I said I did not waste time reading the entire post. However, what you propose still has zero chance, because the networks have already told the Big12 that the teams you mention (except for BYU) add no value to the conference.

None of the teams bring anything close to an extra $20 million to the conference, such that an even split would yield a lower per team payout.

However, the idea proposes to pay teams like Cincinnati and Memphis a fraction of the full-member payout - which would still be more than what Cincinnati and Memphis currently make from the AAC - and deliver extra games of content to the Big 12 each week. Those extra weekly games would land more value to the Big 12 than the cost of the Cincinnati and Memphis payouts.

The trade off is replacing West Virginia v. Texas Tech or Iowa St. v. Oklahoma with games like West Virginia v. Cincinnati, Texas Tech v. BYU, Boise St. v. Oklahoma, and Iowa St. v. Memphis. Which could actually enhance the conference schedule, giving the TV partners not only more inventory, but better inventory.

(05-05-2015 07:40 PM)10thMountain Wrote:  Imagine the following:

"All right OU fans! You've just finished watching the Sooners take on the Cincinatti Bearkats! Tickets are on sale for next week's exciting game as Big 12 play continues with Oklahoma taking on the Pirates of East Carolina!

Juuuusssttttt not seeing it.

But I still hope it happens just to watch the look of horror and disgust on my co-worker's face.

Sample Oklahoma schedule:

Texas
Texas Tech
Baylor
Cincinnati
Kansas
West Virginia
Kansas St.
Boise St.
Oklahoma St.

Replace TCU and Iowa St. with Cincinnati and Boise St. - is that really a downgrade? Remember that TCU and Boise St. were in the same conference three years ago.

Sample West Virginia schedule:
TCU
Texas
East Carolina
Baylor
Navy
Oklahoma
Kansas
Iowa St.
Cincinnati

Add nice regional games like Cincinnati and Navy, but still get plenty of Texas and Oklahoma.

Meanwhile, the Big 12 TV partners can now broadcast 7 or 8 Big 12 games each weekend instead of 4 or 5. And both Oklahoma and West Virginia still enjoy their $20+ million annual payouts - no decrease whatsoever.

(05-05-2015 06:24 PM)TodgeRodge Wrote:  you missed the part about having a lot of "inventory" that is not really desired means you do not bring in a lot of dollars for all that inventory

...

"content' does not matter......"markets" do not matter of the content is not desired and the market is not delivered

You don't need to bring in a lot of dollars for that inventory. You're paying the affiliate newbies just a fraction of the full-member payouts. And, the current full members still play 6 or 7 games amongst themselves and the affiliate newbies play over half their schedules amongst themselves.

Big 12 now can broadcast weekly 7 or 8 games, instead of only 4 or 5, but still have 2 or 3 weekly marquee matchups.

The end result is that the Big 12 increases its full member annual payouts and substantially expands its market presence with games from noon Eastern until 8pm Pacific on a given Saturday.