Eagle78
1st String
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Rumor Mill
(04-09-2015 09:31 PM)DefCONNOne Wrote: (04-09-2015 05:12 PM)Eagle78 Wrote: (04-09-2015 04:18 PM)HuskyU Wrote: Until a GOR is challenged, no one really knows how rock solid it is.
If anyone's gonna take a shot at it, my money's on Delany and the Big Ten.
IMO, the are three things wrong with this statement:
1. GORs are hardly novel. They have been well utilized in other industries for years and have been viewed by the courts as binding and enforceable. If such a challenge were to be made, the courts would likely look to prior application of these instruments in other areas. Not saying that it would be an impossibility, but a conference, and more importantly, individual programs, would be taking huge risks which, IMO, they would be unlikely to take given ramifications of losing in court. In my experience, institutions by their very nature are generally risk averse.
2. What individual programs from other P5 conferences would even be interested? Let's be real here. As mentioned above, if any P5 program, such as from the ACC, was interested in making such a move, they would have done so prior to voluntarily signing the GOR. At the very least, programs would have kept their options open and not signed the document if they had a desire to bolt the conference at some point. Simple logic.
3. Delany is not the "king" of the BiG. He works for, and answers to, the BiG university presidents. See point #1 about institutions and their willingness to accept big risks. IMO, there is even more to this point. Since the BiG also has a GOR, and, as widely reported, these GORs are more or less mirror images of one another, any challenge by the BiG to another Conference's GOR becomes, IMO, a de-facto challenge to THEIR OWN GOR. IMO, one of the benefits which the GORs have ushered into CFB is stability. The proverbial conference "musical chairs" appears over for the for the foreseeable future. As a Uconn fan, I understand that might not be good news, but for the P5, IMO, stability makes networks much more comfortable in doing long-term, big $$ deals with the conferences. An assault on one GOR is an assault on all the GORS which, IMO, creates the kind of uncertainty across all of the CFB market which would not be desired by the universities.
There is a reason why CFB realignment has basically stopped despite all of the baseless speculation that gets thrown around on these boards. It is what it is. Some people just refuse to see the facts for what they are, IMO.
Yep, and you have ZERO idea why that is. Everyone thought CR was over in 2005 after BC joined the ACC, yet CR struck again in 2011. Then everyone said it was over after that round, until the very next year. So to get all sanctimonious and proclaim that people are grasping at straws is at the very least.......grasping at straws.
Um, a little bit of historical revisionism going on here maybe? NOBODY thought realignment was over after 2011 and 2012. Every Tom, Dick, and Harry seemed to be proclaiming that the ACC was going to be ripped part. There were endless media stories speculating about the next moves to be made in CFB realignment. Then, contrary to the overwhelming popular wisdom at the time, realignment just stopped. What happened? After all, EVERYBODY was predicting more moves to follow. Why didn't the ACC get ripped apart? Oh yes, GORs were adopted in 4 of the 5 P5 conferences. Action and reaction.
Oh, and here is something for you to consider, ALL of the moves that occurred or were announced in the 2011 and 2012 period you cited either occurred prior to the signing of GORs or involved schools from conferences without a GOR. How much P5 realignment has occurred SINCE the GORs were adopted? How many P5 schools that signed a GOR have jumped to another P5 conference? Um, that would be a big fat zero.
It's not rocket science. I realize that this is not the result you want, for obvious reasons; but facts are stubborn things.
(This post was last modified: 04-09-2015 10:14 PM by Eagle78.)
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