http://espn.go.com/mens-college-basketball/bracketology

His predictions by conference
CONFERENCE TEAMS
Big Ten 8
SEC 7 (Seems high to me)
ACC 7 (I actually think 8 or even 9 may be possible Syracuse Pitt & FSU being bubble teams. ACC will be some fun basketball next year.)
Big 12 6
Big East 5
American 4 (Looks like he predicts the AAC rebound, had Tulsa in first four out)
Pac-12 4
Atlantic 10 3 (Surprise not including Davidson)

Way too early is right. I'll bet not one ranked team ends up where he put them.

(04-07-2015 01:35 PM)msm96wolf Wrote:  http://espn.go.com/mens-college-basketball/bracketology

His predictions by conference
CONFERENCE TEAMS
Big Ten 8
SEC 7 (Seems high to me)
ACC 7 (I actually think 8 or even 9 may be possible Syracuse Pitt & FSU being bubble teams. ACC will be some fun basketball next year.)
Big 12 6
Big East 5
American 4 (Looks like he predicts the AAC rebound, had Tulsa in first four out)
Pac-12 4
Atlantic 10 3 (Surprise not including Davidson)

7 bids for the sec? yeah, right. got it.

(04-07-2015 01:39 PM)bitcruncher Wrote:  Way too early is right. I'll bet not one ranked team ends up where he put them.

You always want to poo poo these kinds of things but they are a lot more accurate than you think....

(04-07-2015 02:29 PM)stever20 Wrote:  

(04-07-2015 01:39 PM)bitcruncher Wrote:  Way too early is right. I'll bet not one ranked team ends up where he put them.

You always want to poo poo these kinds of things but they are a lot more accurate than you think....

Oh really? Then show me how accurate the early polls for last season were. I'd love to see a preseason poll from last year that was accurate.

Link?

don't think you want to go there:
http://espn.go.com/mens-college-basketba...all-season

1 Arizona(finished final 8)
2 Duke(won)
3 Kentucky(final 4)
4 Wisconsin(final)
5 Wichita(sweet 16)
6 North Carolina(sweet 16)
7 Virginia(rd of 32)
8 Florida(ugh)
9 Kansas(rd of 32)
10 UConn(ugh)
only 3 of the 11-25 didn't make the tourney. Michigan St was #18.

So way too early final 4 nailed 3 of the top 4- and the 4th lost to another one of the final 4. Only Notre Dame wasn't in their top 25 that made the elite 8.

You can't go wrong with predicting UK as a #1 seed. Kentucky, Wisconsin and Duke were all picked as #1 seeds prior to this season by more than one prognosticator.

http://www.cbssports.com/collegebasketba...no-1-seeds

http://ftw.usatoday.com/2014/11/2015-nca...on-bracket

that's the thing. Folks night not like the way too early things- but especially with the college sports- they are right a lot more than they are wrong.

Rhode Island, eh?

A10's always interesting...VCU and Dayton seem easy to pick, but you never know about GWU, SJU, UMass, Richmond, and now Davidson. Davidson...that's a program to watch. They might have a higher ceiling than the A10...

(04-07-2015 02:44 PM)stever20 Wrote:  don't think you want to go there:
http://espn.go.com/mens-college-basketba...all-season

1 Arizona(finished final 8)
2 Duke(won)
3 Kentucky(final 4)
4 Wisconsin(final)
5 Wichita(sweet 16)
6 North Carolina(sweet 16)
7 Virginia(rd of 32)
8 Florida(ugh)
9 Kansas(rd of 32)
10 UConn(ugh)
only 3 of the 11-25 didn't make the tourney. Michigan St was #18.

So way too early final 4 nailed 3 of the top 4- and the 4th lost to another one of the final 4. Only Notre Dame wasn't in their top 25 that made the elite 8.

I went there, got it, and brought it back.



How many of those teams were in the right place? One - maybe?

I'd say it's pretty damn good to have 4 of the top 5 pegged pretty much 100% correct. Obviously it's not 100% perfect, but it's far more accurate than you ever want to give them credit for. You would have folks think that it's a complete guess that they are making, and that just is not the case one bit.

(04-07-2015 10:54 PM)stever20 Wrote:  I'd say it's pretty damn good to have 4 of the top 5 pegged pretty much 100% correct. Obviously it's not 100% perfect, but it's far more accurate than you ever want to give them credit for. You would have folks think that it's a complete guess that they are making, and that just is not the case one bit.

It is a guess. All polls are guesses, even though they're educated guesses. But the fact that some logical thought went into the process doesn't change the fact that preseason polls are nothing but guesses and opinions on how these people think the season will turn out. As I said previously, not one single team in the preseason poll is in the place where all those opinions thought they'd be in the preseason. Some are close - but no cigars.

Any poll that comes out before any games are played is worthless. All they do is allow certain teams to get a head start in the polls. It also promotes bias towards the teams that everyone likes every year, since many teams only make the early poll due to name recognition.

UConn last season is a perfect example. They started the season out highly ranked, and finished - where?...

I could site example after example.

1 Arizona(finished final 8)
2 Duke(won)
3 Kentucky(final 4)
4 Wisconsin(final)

Just looking at the final poll Kentucky was in the final coaches poll just released yesterday EXACTLY where this way too early poll put them. #3. Duke went from 2 to 1. Wisconsin from 4 to 2. Arizona from 1 to 4. That's pretty damn good.

And this follows the football season where the preseason top 6 had all 4 playoff teams. And bias didn't have a damn thing to do about who made the playoffs and you darn well know it. I give you TCU. Where were they in the preseason football polls? 31st. The polls didn't hold TCU back at all. If they had beaten Baylor, they are in the playoff. Period. And the polls didn't hold Baylor back either.

You act like they are just throwing darts, and that just is not the case at all. They are far more accurate than you think. And I'm sorry something like this that has teams within 1-2 spots of where they actually fell is pretty damn accurate. Is it perfect? No. But is it some thing that should just be ignored? Hell no.

(04-08-2015 12:39 PM)stever20 Wrote:  1 Arizona(finished final 8) Did NOT finish #1
2 Duke(won) Did NOT finish #2
3 Kentucky(final 4) The ONE correct pick in the ENTIRE poll
4 Wisconsin(final) Did NOT finish #4

Just looking at the final poll Kentucky was in the final coaches poll just released yesterday EXACTLY where this way too early poll put them. #3. Duke went from 2 to 1. Wisconsin from 4 to 2. Arizona from 1 to 4. That's pretty damn good. One correct pick isn't all that good IMO. Close only works with explosives.

And this follows the football season where the preseason top 6 had all 4 playoff teams in the wrong order. And bias didn't have a damn thing to do about who made the playoffs and you darn well know it. Oh really? So bias wasn't the reason that the one conference that occupies the least populous part of the nation was left out of the playoffs? Boy are you naive. I give you TCU. Where were they in the preseason football polls? 31st. The polls didn't hold TCU back at all. If they had beaten Baylor, they are in the playoff. Period. And the polls didn't hold Baylor back either.

You act like they are just throwing darts, and that just is not the case at all. They are far more accurate than you think. And I'm sorry something like this that has teams within 1-2 spots of where they actually fell is pretty damn accurate. Is it perfect? No. But is it some thing that should just be ignored? Hell no.

Polls should not be introduced until the mid point of the season. ANY poll prior to that point is worthless.

Baylor who was the Big 12 champion had a pathetic OOC schedule. That's why they were out of the playoffs, not because of some tin hat bias theory. Maybe if they get some stones and actually schedule somebody with I don't know, a pulse- Baylor could have gotten in. You schedule SMU, Northwestern St, and Buffalo- you aren't going to get much respect at all. You schedule chicken **** you deserve what you get.

Gotta agree with Stever on this. Thats a pretty damn good "guess"

(04-08-2015 02:16 PM)stever20 Wrote:  Baylor who was the Big 12 champion had a pathetic OOC schedule. That's why they were out of the playoffs, not because of some tin hat bias theory. Maybe if they get some stones and actually schedule somebody with I don't know, a pulse- Baylor could have gotten in. You schedule SMU, Northwestern St, and Buffalo- you aren't going to get much respect at all. You schedule chicken **** you deserve what you get.

That doesn't have as good a chance of happening as me winning the lottery, and I don't even buy tickets. Art Briles has already said as much.

As for my bias theory, you have no proof that bias wasn't involved, other than your opinion. Whether or not anybody agrees with your opinion is irrelevant. I can think of many instances where popular opinion was heavily weighted one way, and the majority was totally wrong.

TCU was ranked ahead of Baylor in the polls, until the final poll. Baylor beat Kansas State, a team TCU beat by 21 points earlier in the season, by 11 points. TCU was ranked in the top 4, won their final regular season game 55-3, and immediately dropped 3 places in the poll, simply because the media decided that TCU's 52 point victory was irrelevant, and Baylor should be ranked ahead of them. Has anything similar EVER happened on the final weekend of college football before?

And before you claim it has, I will require a link as proof.

(04-08-2015 05:10 PM)bitcruncher Wrote:  

(04-08-2015 02:16 PM)stever20 Wrote:  Baylor who was the Big 12 champion had a pathetic OOC schedule. That's why they were out of the playoffs, not because of some tin hat bias theory. Maybe if they get some stones and actually schedule somebody with I don't know, a pulse- Baylor could have gotten in. You schedule SMU, Northwestern St, and Buffalo- you aren't going to get much respect at all. You schedule chicken **** you deserve what you get.

That doesn't have as good a chance of happening as me winning the lottery, and I don't even buy tickets. Art Briles has already said as much.

As for my bias theory, you have no proof that bias wasn't involved, other than your opinion. Whether or not anybody agrees with your opinion is irrelevant. I can think of many instances where popular opinion was heavily weighted one way, and the majority was totally wrong.

TCU was ranked ahead of Baylor in the polls, until the final poll. Baylor beat Kansas State, a team TCU beat by 21 points earlier in the season, by 11 points. TCU was ranked in the top 4, won their final regular season game 55-3, and immediately dropped 3 places in the poll, simply because the media decided that TCU's 52 point victory was irrelevant, and Baylor should be ranked ahead of them. Has anything similar EVER happened on the final weekend of college football before?

And before you claim it has, I will require a link as proof.

Well then Art Briles better run the table because 11-1 won't be good enough almost any year. He gets what he deserves. What a wimp.

You have no proof that bias did happen. The thing is, TCU beat a awful Iowa St team by 52(big deal). while Ohio St, Baylor, and Florida St all beat top 15 teams- with Ohio St blowing their opponent out. TCU's schedule up until that last weekend was better enough to be ahead of Baylor. But after Baylor matched that win- it trumped the SOS difference.

And the Media didn't determine the outcome. The CFP committee did. The AP poll had Baylor 4th. Whoops, some conspiracy theory there.

(04-08-2015 05:31 PM)stever20 Wrote:  

(04-08-2015 05:10 PM)bitcruncher Wrote:  

(04-08-2015 02:16 PM)stever20 Wrote:  Baylor who was the Big 12 champion had a pathetic OOC schedule. That's why they were out of the playoffs, not because of some tin hat bias theory. Maybe if they get some stones and actually schedule somebody with I don't know, a pulse- Baylor could have gotten in. You schedule SMU, Northwestern St, and Buffalo- you aren't going to get much respect at all. You schedule chicken **** you deserve what you get.

That doesn't have as good a chance of happening as me winning the lottery, and I don't even buy tickets. Art Briles has already said as much.

As for my bias theory, you have no proof that bias wasn't involved, other than your opinion. Whether or not anybody agrees with your opinion is irrelevant. I can think of many instances where popular opinion was heavily weighted one way, and the majority was totally wrong.

TCU was ranked ahead of Baylor in the polls, until the final poll. Baylor beat Kansas State, a team TCU beat by 21 points earlier in the season, by 11 points. TCU was ranked in the top 4, won their final regular season game 55-3, and immediately dropped 3 places in the poll, simply because the media decided that TCU's 52 point victory was irrelevant, and Baylor should be ranked ahead of them. Has anything similar EVER happened on the final weekend of college football before?

And before you claim it has, I will require a link as proof.

Well then Art Briles better run the table because 11-1 won't be good enough almost any year. He gets what he deserves. What a wimp.

You have no proof that bias did happen. The thing is, TCU beat a awful Iowa St team by 52(big deal). while Ohio St, Baylor, and Florida St all beat top 15 teams- with Ohio St blowing their opponent out. TCU's schedule up until that last weekend was better enough to be ahead of Baylor. But after Baylor matched that win- it trumped the SOS difference.

And the Media didn't determine the outcome. The CFP committee did. The AP poll had Baylor 4th. Whoops, some conspiracy theory there.

I agree with the first statement. Art Briles is a coward, and Baylor deserves no credit for it. However, that doesn't confer disrespect to the entire conference, just Baylor.

But you have no proof that bias didn't occur, other than you opinion. So we're even on that score.

(04-08-2015 01:54 PM)bitcruncher Wrote:  

(04-08-2015 12:39 PM)stever20 Wrote:  1 Arizona(finished final 8) Did NOT finish #1
2 Duke(won) Did NOT finish #2
3 Kentucky(final 4) The ONE correct pick in the ENTIRE poll
4 Wisconsin(final) Did NOT finish #4

Just looking at the final poll Kentucky was in the final coaches poll just released yesterday EXACTLY where this way too early poll put them. #3. Duke went from 2 to 1. Wisconsin from 4 to 2. Arizona from 1 to 4. That's pretty damn good. One correct pick isn't all that good IMO. Close only works with explosives.

And this follows the football season where the preseason top 6 had all 4 playoff teams in the wrong order. And bias didn't have a damn thing to do about who made the playoffs and you darn well know it. Oh really? So bias wasn't the reason that the one conference that occupies the least populous part of the nation was left out of the playoffs? Boy are you naive. I give you TCU. Where were they in the preseason football polls? 31st. The polls didn't hold TCU back at all. If they had beaten Baylor, they are in the playoff. Period. And the polls didn't hold Baylor back either.

You act like they are just throwing darts, and that just is not the case at all. They are far more accurate than you think. And I'm sorry something like this that has teams within 1-2 spots of where they actually fell is pretty damn accurate. Is it perfect? No. But is it some thing that should just be ignored? Hell no.

Polls should not be introduced until the mid point of the season. ANY poll prior to that point is worthless.

If you don't like polls that aren't exact, just get rid of them entirely. If you posted the very last regular season poll of the year, you wouldn't be much closer (if at all?) than the preseason poll and you sure wouldn't be exact on what place they finish in a 1 and done tournament.