I think it is fairly agreed upon these are the last four in candidates. My guess what each will need to do.

BYU - Play Gonzaga close and probably in. Win and need not worry about it.
Temple - Must beat Memphis to stay alive and SMU to probably assure bid.
Texas - Beat TT & ISU then probably in.
Indiana - Needs to beat MD to get in.
Miami (FL) - Needs to get to finals to have a shot.
Old Dominion - Needs to win out but probably knocks LT out. No Impact
Tulsa - Probably needs to get to AAC Championship to get in.
Texas A&M - Needs to beat LSU

Possibly Bubble Busters
Richmond or Rhode Island - A10
Kansas St - B12

I think if Temple beats Memphis they're in. Do not think BYU is anywhere near as safe as you think. They really don't have a great resume- it's just 1 thing- the Gonzaga win.

I think 2 more bubble busters....
UConn in the AAC
UNLV in the MWC
both are hosting the tourney.

(03-10-2015 09:24 AM)stever20 Wrote:  I think if Temple beats Memphis they're in. Do not think BYU is anywhere near as safe as you think. They really don't have a great resume- it's just 1 thing- the Gonzaga win.

I think 2 more bubble busters....
UConn in the AAC
UNLV in the MWC
both are hosting the tourney.

Agree about UCONN. Temple basically only has the KU win as well. I think it will come down to these two for the last spot. Beating Memphis (RPI 82) will not really help Temple all that much but defeat SMU and they are in. Then again, BYU has the chance to make it a mute point.

(03-10-2015 09:50 AM)msm96wolf Wrote:  

(03-10-2015 09:24 AM)stever20 Wrote:  I think if Temple beats Memphis they're in. Do not think BYU is anywhere near as safe as you think. They really don't have a great resume- it's just 1 thing- the Gonzaga win.

I think 2 more bubble busters....
UConn in the AAC
UNLV in the MWC
both are hosting the tourney.

Agree about UCONN. Temple basically only has the KU win as well. I think it will come down to these two for the last spot. Beating Memphis (RPI 82) will not really help Temple all that much but defeat SMU and they are in. Then again, BYU has the chance to make it a mute point.

Temple-
6-8 vs RPI top 100(would be 7-9)
1 sub 100 loss
68 SOS(will improve)
win over Kansas
31 RPI

BYU-
5-5 vs RPI top 100(would be 5-6)
3 sub 100 losses
83 SOS(will improve)
win over Gonzaga
37 RPI

I think the fact Temple has 5 more RPI top 100 games helps, along with the 2 fewer sub 100 losses and a better RPI.

(03-10-2015 09:54 AM)stever20 Wrote:  

(03-10-2015 09:50 AM)msm96wolf Wrote:  

(03-10-2015 09:24 AM)stever20 Wrote:  I think if Temple beats Memphis they're in. Do not think BYU is anywhere near as safe as you think. They really don't have a great resume- it's just 1 thing- the Gonzaga win.

I think 2 more bubble busters....
UConn in the AAC
UNLV in the MWC
both are hosting the tourney.

Agree about UCONN. Temple basically only has the KU win as well. I think it will come down to these two for the last spot. Beating Memphis (RPI 82) will not really help Temple all that much but defeat SMU and they are in. Then again, BYU has the chance to make it a mute point.

Temple-
6-8 vs RPI top 100(would be 7-9)
1 sub 100 loss
68 SOS(will improve)
win over Kansas
31 RPI

BYU-
5-5 vs RPI top 100(would be 5-6)
3 sub 100 losses
83 SOS(will improve)
win over Gonzaga
37 RPI

I think the fact Temple has 5 more RPI top 100 games helps, along with the 2 fewer sub 100 losses and a better RPI.

Team A: 22-9 RPI: 40 1-25: 1-3 26-50: 0-3 51-100: 6-3
Team B: 22-9 RPI: 34 1-25: 1-4 26-50: 1-3 51-100: 5-1

Team A is Ohio State
Team B is Temple

How is OSU and 8-9 seed and Temple barely in? This was off of the Temple rivals board...

it's the newfangled metrics BS quite frankly. Ken Pom- OSU 18 Temple 52.

A lot of bubble teams would be in big trouble if the committee used KenPom. He has Miami 54th, Indiana 55th, Colorado State 62nd.

(03-10-2015 10:36 AM)Wedge Wrote:  A lot of bubble teams would be in big trouble if the committee used KenPom. He has Miami 54th, Indiana 55th, Colorado State 62nd.

Please note I am not saying Temple is not in, just I don't think a win over Memphis guarantee's anything and win over SMU would. I just think these two could come down to the last spot and no one can ever predict what the committee will do. I will go this far, BYU wins tonight, Temple will need to beat SMU to possibly get in. That's the one great thing about Tournament week, you win it, you don't need no stinking invite.

(03-10-2015 10:36 AM)Wedge Wrote:  A lot of bubble teams would be in big trouble if the committee used KenPom. He has Miami 54th, Indiana 55th, Colorado State 62nd.

Yea, I am just using criteria that the committee looks at. They don't use Kenpom and if someone mentions BPI they should have their cable TV removed.

(03-10-2015 11:06 AM)msm96wolf Wrote:  

(03-10-2015 10:36 AM)Wedge Wrote:  A lot of bubble teams would be in big trouble if the committee used KenPom. He has Miami 54th, Indiana 55th, Colorado State 62nd.

Please note I am not saying Temple is not in, just I don't think a win over Memphis guarantee's anything and win over SMU would. I just think these two could come down to the last spot and no one can ever predict what the committee will do. I will go this far, BYU wins tonight, Temple will need to beat SMU to possibly get in. That's the one great thing about Tournament week, you win it, you don't need no stinking invite.

Yeah, there are about 10 teams that should be rooting for Gonzaga tonight. BYU is in the main field if they win, obviously, and other teams that thought themselves safely above the First Four won't be safe from the Tuesday/Wednesday games anymore, and teams that thought they'd be ahead of BYU on resume will have one less spot available to them.

(03-10-2015 11:06 AM)msm96wolf Wrote:  

(03-10-2015 10:36 AM)Wedge Wrote:  A lot of bubble teams would be in big trouble if the committee used KenPom. He has Miami 54th, Indiana 55th, Colorado State 62nd.

Please note I am not saying Temple is not in, just I don't think a win over Memphis guarantee's anything and win over SMU would. I just think these two could come down to the last spot and no one can ever predict what the committee will do. I will go this far, BYU wins tonight, Temple will need to beat SMU to possibly get in. That's the one great thing about Tournament week, you win it, you don't need no stinking invite.

The thing is right now both BYU and Temple are in. So BYU beating Gonzaga really doesn't impact Temple much. Temple is not the last team in right now.

I think Temple is already in. Tulsa is the team that needs to win a game or two.

My Illini are also right on the bubble. Realistically, we need to beat Michigan (doable/expected) and then Wisconsin (TALL order) in the Big Ten Tournament to feel good at all on Selection Sunday.

(03-10-2015 11:18 AM)stever20 Wrote:  

(03-10-2015 11:06 AM)msm96wolf Wrote:  

(03-10-2015 10:36 AM)Wedge Wrote:  A lot of bubble teams would be in big trouble if the committee used KenPom. He has Miami 54th, Indiana 55th, Colorado State 62nd.

Please note I am not saying Temple is not in, just I don't think a win over Memphis guarantee's anything and win over SMU would. I just think these two could come down to the last spot and no one can ever predict what the committee will do. I will go this far, BYU wins tonight, Temple will need to beat SMU to possibly get in. That's the one great thing about Tournament week, you win it, you don't need no stinking invite.

The thing is right now both BYU and Temple are in. So BYU beating Gonzaga really doesn't impact Temple much. Temple is not the last team in right now.

Yeah, I feel like BYU in particular is safer than what a lot of people seem to believe. Their RPI is likely going to rise further even if they lose to Gonzaga tonight. That true road win in Gonzaga is going to carry them far - those top level wins really do seem to get weighed much more heavily with the Committee than bad losses or a better record against good-but-not-great teams. (I remember Illinois being in a similar situation 2 years ago, where a lot of people thought they were on the bubble but their early season win at Gonzaga as a marquee true road win ended up being the Committee's justification for putting them very safely in the field with a seed that was nowhere near the bubble.) You could say the same about how much Temple's win against Kansas has carried them. I know that as an Illini fan that I'm definitely not counting on a BYU loss to do my team any good. Schools like Miami, Tulsa and Texas A&M are the ones that I need to see lose early in their conference tourneys.

I wouldn't be surprised if Ohio State's seeding puts them in the 10-11 range because the numbers don't actually add up for them. The Big Ten's "down," the out of conference wins aren't as robust as other years, and the issues of winning away from home still plague them. At some point, does this group a bunch of schools (Ohio State, Iowa, Purdue, Indiana, and Illinois) together and put them in a spot to compete for bids? Not all of them are going to get one, and Ohio State's numbers, when looked at just by the numbers, aren't as impressive when it comes down to it.

Last year, you had St. Joe's playing into the tournament, and when they did, winning the games they did late into the A10 season and then in the tournament, winning that tournament (including a pretty spiffy VCU in the final, iirc), even after that, they got a 10-seed, and it looked like one of the weakest ones. I think that if SJU didn't win that final, no bid, but people were projecting their safety after clearing the first game in the tournament. I wouldn't be surprised if BYU's in the same place this year, and a bad showing by Ohio State in theirs doesn't shove them down some lines.

The bubble is really thick this year, but, really, I think anything after the 4-5 seeds will be tossing darts. All of those Big East, Big XII, Big Ten, and ACC schools will post very similar numbers. It could be one of those things where the committee gives it over to its broadcast partners to build an opening weekend that people will want to watch, rather than rewarding programs and the work they've done.

(03-10-2015 11:33 AM)Frank the Tank Wrote:  My Illini are also right on the bubble. Realistically, we need to beat Michigan (doable/expected) and then Wisconsin (TALL order) in the Big Ten Tournament to feel good at all on Selection Sunday.

Just for Grins and Giggles, here is the selection committee.

Scott Barnes Committee chair and director of athletics at Utah State University (MWC)
Joe Alleva, director of athletics, Louisiana State University (SEC)
Joe Castiglione, director of athletics, Oklahoma University (B12)
Janet Cone, director of athletics, University of North Carolina at Asheville (Big South)
Tom Holmoe, director of athletics, Brigham Young University (WCC)
Mark Hollis, director of athletics, Michigan State University (B1G)
Judy MacLeod, executive associate commissioner, Conference USA
Bernard Muir, director of athletics, Stanford University (PAC 12)
Bruce Rasmussen, director of athletics, Creighton University (Big East)
Peter Roby, director of athletics, Northeastern University (CAA)

(03-10-2015 11:46 AM)The Cutter of Bish Wrote:  I wouldn't be surprised if Ohio State's seeding puts them in the 10-11 range because the numbers don't actually add up for them. The Big Ten's "down," the out of conference wins aren't as robust as other years, and the issues of winning away from home still plague them. At some point, does this group a bunch of schools (Ohio State, Iowa, Purdue, Indiana, and Illinois) together and put them in a spot to compete for bids? Not all of them are going to get one, and Ohio State's numbers, when looked at just by the numbers, aren't as impressive when it comes down to it.

Last year, you had St. Joe's playing into the tournament, and when they did, winning the games they did late into the A10 season and then in the tournament, winning that tournament (including a pretty spiffy VCU in the final, iirc), even after that, they got a 10-seed, and it looked like one of the weakest ones. I think that if SJU didn't win that final, no bid, but people were projecting their safety after clearing the first game in the tournament. I wouldn't be surprised if BYU's in the same place this year, and a bad showing by Ohio State in theirs doesn't shove them down some lines.

The bubble is really thick this year, but, really, I think anything after the 4-5 seeds will be tossing darts. All of those Big East, Big XII, Big Ten, and ACC schools will post very similar numbers. It could be one of those things where the committee gives it over to its broadcast partners to build an opening weekend that people will want to watch, rather than rewarding programs and the work they've done.

Fairly good post until the conspiracy theory at the end there. The big difference is that conference realignment has essentially eliminated most of the potential at-large schools from the midmajor leagues - schools like VCU, Butler and Davidson have gone from midmajor conferences to high major conferences. If you take the 5 power conferences plus the Big East, AAC, Atlantic 10, MWC and WCC, the only two schools that would have felt comfortable of having at-large bids if they failed to win their conference tournaments would have been from the MVC (Wichita State and Northern Iowa), which was made moot with Northern Iowa winning. The depth of the midmajor conferences simply isn't very good, which is why you see the bubble almost entirely made up of high major conference teams.

BYU's AD is on the selection committee. That is a factor that will keep BYU in the tournament if they lose to Gonzaga.

Temple should be around 9 or 10 seed at this point. The Owls were a different team when they had their full team. That Kansas win was huge but they also beat Cincinnati, La Tech, Swept UConn and won at Memphis. A solid non-conference SOS always helps too.

Ohio State's resume is a joke at this point. Bad non-conference SOS (somewhere in the 200's), poor road record, and a poor record against top 50 teams. The Buckeyes did nothing outside of the league and basically split with a bunch of bubble teams in the Big Ten to along with a home win over Maryland. That Maryland win is only thing keeping them in the conversation at this point.

Dayton is another team someone needs to take another look at. 10 of the 13 league wins came against teams ranked 100 of lower in the RPI. They do have two solid non-conference wins over bubble teams, Texas A&M and Ole Miss. My issue with their resume is that their best win came against a weakened VCU team, which is hardly a top 50 win when you look at how the Rams finished the season. The flyers also lost to LaSalle and Duquesne over the last few weeks.

Tulsa's sweep of Temple and second place finish in the American should be enough to push them into the play-in game. I like the Hurricanes 9-5 record away from home but this is team that is right on the bubble due to a poor start. Failure to beat SMU or Cincinnati hurts them a bunch at this point.

Oklahoma State is another school that is in deep trouble. They have the good wins but a loss to Oklahoma would give them six losses in their last seven games. I would look past that if all the losses were to top level teams but the Cowboys managed to fall to TCU and Texas Tech.

(03-10-2015 11:55 AM)Frank the Tank Wrote:  

(03-10-2015 11:46 AM)The Cutter of Bish Wrote:  I wouldn't be surprised if Ohio State's seeding puts them in the 10-11 range because the numbers don't actually add up for them. The Big Ten's "down," the out of conference wins aren't as robust as other years, and the issues of winning away from home still plague them. At some point, does this group a bunch of schools (Ohio State, Iowa, Purdue, Indiana, and Illinois) together and put them in a spot to compete for bids? Not all of them are going to get one, and Ohio State's numbers, when looked at just by the numbers, aren't as impressive when it comes down to it.

Last year, you had St. Joe's playing into the tournament, and when they did, winning the games they did late into the A10 season and then in the tournament, winning that tournament (including a pretty spiffy VCU in the final, iirc), even after that, they got a 10-seed, and it looked like one of the weakest ones. I think that if SJU didn't win that final, no bid, but people were projecting their safety after clearing the first game in the tournament. I wouldn't be surprised if BYU's in the same place this year, and a bad showing by Ohio State in theirs doesn't shove them down some lines.

The bubble is really thick this year, but, really, I think anything after the 4-5 seeds will be tossing darts. All of those Big East, Big XII, Big Ten, and ACC schools will post very similar numbers. It could be one of those things where the committee gives it over to its broadcast partners to build an opening weekend that people will want to watch, rather than rewarding programs and the work they've done.

Fairly good post until the conspiracy theory at the end there. The big difference is that conference realignment has essentially eliminated most of the potential at-large schools from the midmajor leagues - schools like VCU, Butler and Davidson have gone from midmajor conferences to high major conferences. If you take the 5 power conferences plus the Big East, AAC, Atlantic 10, MWC and WCC, the only two schools that would have felt comfortable of having at-large bids if they failed to win their conference tournaments would have been from the MVC (Wichita State and Northern Iowa), which was made moot with Northern Iowa winning. The depth of the midmajor conferences simply isn't very good, which is why you see the bubble almost entirely made up of high major conference teams.

It isn't a conspiracy theory. Folks from the committee have said that after they select the programs, they do some consultation with the broadcasters for input. Down around the 8/9's and 7/10's, they're virtually interchangeable, which has also been stated on a yearly basis. If it trickles to 6/11's, with this year's crop...it won't surprise me.

That you tied the WCC into those others show the mid-majors are still a factor in this thing, and that realignment hasn't killed the whole sport. Maybe certain conferences have been made to suffer (CUSA, CAA, A10, WAC, and the Big East) at the hands of others, but hasn't that always happened along the way? I remember when the Big West used to be good for 2-3 bids. Now it's the private school west coast league getting them.

(03-10-2015 11:55 AM)Frank the Tank Wrote:  

(03-10-2015 11:46 AM)The Cutter of Bish Wrote:  I wouldn't be surprised if Ohio State's seeding puts them in the 10-11 range because the numbers don't actually add up for them. The Big Ten's "down," the out of conference wins aren't as robust as other years, and the issues of winning away from home still plague them. At some point, does this group a bunch of schools (Ohio State, Iowa, Purdue, Indiana, and Illinois) together and put them in a spot to compete for bids? Not all of them are going to get one, and Ohio State's numbers, when looked at just by the numbers, aren't as impressive when it comes down to it.

Last year, you had St. Joe's playing into the tournament, and when they did, winning the games they did late into the A10 season and then in the tournament, winning that tournament (including a pretty spiffy VCU in the final, iirc), even after that, they got a 10-seed, and it looked like one of the weakest ones. I think that if SJU didn't win that final, no bid, but people were projecting their safety after clearing the first game in the tournament. I wouldn't be surprised if BYU's in the same place this year, and a bad showing by Ohio State in theirs doesn't shove them down some lines.

The bubble is really thick this year, but, really, I think anything after the 4-5 seeds will be tossing darts. All of those Big East, Big XII, Big Ten, and ACC schools will post very similar numbers. It could be one of those things where the committee gives it over to its broadcast partners to build an opening weekend that people will want to watch, rather than rewarding programs and the work they've done.

Fairly good post until the conspiracy theory at the end there. The big difference is that conference realignment has essentially eliminated most of the potential at-large schools from the midmajor leagues - schools like VCU, Butler and Davidson have gone from midmajor conferences to high major conferences. If you take the 5 power conferences plus the Big East, AAC, Atlantic 10, MWC and WCC, the only two schools that would have felt comfortable of having at-large bids if they failed to win their conference tournaments would have been from the MVC (Wichita State and Northern Iowa), which was made moot with Northern Iowa winning. The depth of the midmajor conferences simply isn't very good, which is why you see the bubble almost entirely made up of high major conference teams.

I had the same observation last night. I was looking through the mid/low major schools that had already clinched and where they would likely be seeded and was royally unimpressed with all of them (especially against 1-3 seeds). I can see SFA doing damage again if they play a 5 or a 6 or even the Valpo/Green Bay winner winning a game, but the rest looks to be pretty weak outside of C-USA.