fallsdog
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Kent State @ Bowling Green
Its down to 2 games. Win 'em both and get a top 4.
The mettle of the basketball team (and program) will be tested this week.
Go Flashes!
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03-02-2015 11:21 AM |
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dannyb73
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RE: Kent State @ Bowling Green
I still believe win 'em both gets a top 2 seed although nothing is guaranteed. CMU plays UT, and BG still has to go to UB. If we beat BG and then they turn around and beat UB, we are looking good if we can handle the zits.
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03-02-2015 11:30 AM |
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mmucha
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RE: Kent State @ Bowling Green
i think we win out & take #1 seed
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03-02-2015 12:18 PM |
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dannyb73
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RE: Kent State @ Bowling Green
(03-02-2015 12:18 PM)mmucha Wrote: i think we win out & take #1 seed
I don't doubt that. I didn't do the math. Did you?
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03-02-2015 09:08 PM |
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dannyb73
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RE: Kent State @ Bowling Green
(03-02-2015 09:47 PM)axeme Wrote: It's out of our hands. We need help even if we do win out. It would be great for UT and CMU to go 1-1 and be in a multi-team tie with them. That's our best path to #1.
#1 may be out of our hands, but if we win out we will get a top 2 seed based on someone losing in the UT-CMU game and someone losing in the BG-UB game. I think. Anyone?
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03-02-2015 10:57 PM |
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burden
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RE: Kent State @ Bowling Green
If we win 2 and all other teams win the games they should we will end up in a tie for second with the Toledo/CMU loser(The winner will be the one seed) and the BG/ Buffalo winner. If it's Buffalo we end up a 4 seed if it's BG we should be the 2 seed. We get the one seed only if WMU knocks off CMU (not impossible) and/ or Toledo loses their last game to I can't remember. Also an Ohio upset over Buffalo would help but pretty unlikely. Bottom line we need help to get a one or a two.
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03-03-2015 08:36 AM |
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mmucha
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RE: Kent State @ Bowling Green
thanks burden. appears that my previous post was too optimistic :(
we win out & buffalo loses to BG on sat & we're a #2 seed, right?
i like the #2 seed :)
(This post was last modified: 03-03-2015 11:55 AM by mmucha.)
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03-03-2015 10:58 AM |
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fallsdog
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RE: Kent State @ Bowling Green
I hate to be that guy and I am a KSU homer to the umpteenth degree. But after attending the game vs. Buffalo on Saturday, I am afraid that this discussion is futile.
I would love to be proved wrong.
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03-03-2015 12:08 PM |
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burden
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RE: Kent State @ Bowling Green
I ASSUMED Kent would win two, Buffalo would beat Ohio, Akron would beat Miami (if they don't it really changes nothing in this scenario only if we go 1-1 does this matter), WMU would beat NIU (again irrelevant if we win two) and Toledo would beat EMU. That leaves 8 possible scenarios (I couldn't handle 128 actually 512 if you want to figure out our chances if we go 1-1 or 0-2). We are the number two in 7 of them. Only if BG beats Buffalo, CMU beats Toledo and WMU beats CMU do we get a 1 seed. Now an Ohio win against Buffalo or an EMU win over Toledo would make it more likely but those would be small miracles.
If we go 1-1 beating Akron, two of the eight possibilities give us a four seed. Beating BG and losing to Akron makes us a 5 seed or worse no matter what. Of course two losses does the same. Both these possibilities ALSO assume the 4 games listed above go as expected. That's the best I can do.
(This post was last modified: 03-03-2015 12:10 PM by burden.)
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03-03-2015 12:08 PM |
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burden
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RE: Kent State @ Bowling Green
(03-03-2015 12:08 PM)fallsdog Wrote: I hate to be that guy and I am a KSU homer to the umpteenth degree. But after attending the game vs. Buffalo on Saturday, I am afraid that this discussion is futile.
I would love to be proved wrong.
I agree with you but I just had to figure it out.
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03-03-2015 12:10 PM |
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dannyb73
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RE: Kent State @ Bowling Green
I am no statistical analyst, but I come up with this pretty easily.
BG loses last 2 to KSU and UB finishes 10-8
KSU wins last 2 and finishes 12-6
UB wins last 2 and finishes 12-6
Toledo finishes 1-1 by losing to CMU and beating EMU and finishes 12-6
CMU goes 1-1 by beating Toledo and losing to WMU and finishes 12-6
KSU vs UB, UT, and CMU is 3-2
UB vs KSU, UT, and CMU is 2-3
CMU vs KSU, UT, and UB is 4-1
UT vs KSU, CMU, and UB is 1-4
CMU #1
KSU #2
UB #3
UT #4
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03-03-2015 01:37 PM |
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burden
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RE: Kent State @ Bowling Green
(03-03-2015 01:37 PM)dannyb73 Wrote: I am no statistical analyst, but I come up with this pretty easily.
BG loses last 2 to KSU and UB finishes 10-8
KSU wins last 2 and finishes 12-6
UB wins last 2 and finishes 12-6
Toledo finishes 1-1 by losing to CMU and beating EMU and finishes 12-6
CMU goes 1-1 by beating Toledo and losing to WMU and finishes 12-6
KSU vs UB, UT, and CMU is 3-2
UB vs KSU, UT, and CMU is 2-3
CMU vs KSU, UT, and UB is 4-1
UT vs KSU, CMU, and UB is 1-4
CMU #1
KSU #2
UB #3
UT #4
Your right that is one of seven outcomes that make us the Number 2 seed. If BG beats Buffalo they go into the four way tie and we end up the one seed as our record goes to 4-1.
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03-03-2015 01:45 PM |
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GFlash68
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RE: Kent State @ Bowling Green
(03-03-2015 01:37 PM)dannyb73 Wrote: I am no statistical analyst, but I come up with this pretty easily.
BG loses last 2 to KSU and UB finishes 10-8
KSU wins last 2 and finishes 12-6
UB wins last 2 and finishes 12-6
Toledo finishes 1-1 by losing to CMU and beating EMU and finishes 12-6
CMU goes 1-1 by beating Toledo and losing to WMU and finishes 12-6
KSU vs UB, UT, and CMU is 3-2
UB vs KSU, UT, and CMU is 2-3
CMU vs KSU, UT, and UB is 4-1
UT vs KSU, CMU, and UB is 1-4
CMU #1
KSU #2
UB #3
UT #4
Now, I really, really like this one.
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03-03-2015 02:14 PM |
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dannyb73
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RE: Kent State @ Bowling Green
Let's just beat BG tonight and Akron Friday and see where the chips fall. Sadly, I am not too optimistic. I remember the season we ended the 20 game win streak, I think we sat on 19 wins forever. Feels eerily similar. If we lose tonight, I think we lose out. Aversely, if we win tonight, I think we beat Akron and have a good chance in Cleveland. Needless to say, I think tonight is very important.
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03-03-2015 03:21 PM |
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GFlash68
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RE: Kent State @ Bowling Green
Tonight is really important. I am predicting a win here. DM can not be off two games in a row. Hoping for Ortiz to come alive.
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03-03-2015 04:42 PM |
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cschierh
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RE: Kent State @ Bowling Green
Some interesting things from Senderof at Monday's coaches' luncheon:
-- As you folks have been saying, KSU can seeded anywhere from 1 to 7.
-- If KSU wins both, Central beats Western and Toledo beats Central, KSU has No. 1 seed.
-- Only Central hasn't lost back to backs this season.
-- Buffalo has a 31 RPI but probably won't get a NCAA bid without winning the tournament.
-- He thought his team tried and played pretty hard against Buffalo. But the four three-pointers at the start put them in a hole and the turnovers and Buffalo scores at the beginning of the second half were "deflating."
-- Kent has been invited to one of the secondary tournaments if it doesn't win the MAC or make the NIT. He happy with that -- those tournaments are like a non-New Year's bowl games.
-- There's "a level of fatigue" among KSU guards, especially Anderson, "but there's not enogh subs for them." They'll just have to "play until they can't play."
-- He's scaling back practice to give players rest. There was no practice Sunday and just shooting Monday. At this point of the season, they know what the other teams are going to do and the other teams know what they'll do.
-- He didn't think Manley's problems against Buffalo was because Dev was tired. It was shot selection. Buffalo "took him out of his game."
-- Kellon Thomas will get a redshirt year, assuming the league approves. He meets the qualifications That will make him a junior again next year.
-- There was interesting conversation -- not led by Rob -- about how Hurley works the refs and how he could well have gotten a second technical Saturday.
-- The five seniors -- including Vedder -- will start Friday. Interesting talk about whether Blake will win the tip -- he doesn't always in practice.
KSU will be giving gold t-shirts to students at the Akron game.
--
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03-03-2015 04:43 PM |
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anti-zip
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RE: Kent State @ Bowling Green
Good start by Brewer.
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03-03-2015 07:43 PM |
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anti-zip
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RE: Kent State @ Bowling Green
Call me greedy, but we should be up more than 5. Too many second chance points for BG.
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03-03-2015 08:02 PM |
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flash77
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RE: Kent State @ Bowling Green
I miss the blue uniforms. They need to bring them back. After all, they are the school colors.
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03-03-2015 08:04 PM |
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