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dan10 Offline
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Post: #21
RE: 2015 CAA Tournament Bracket
If anyone wants to join in for some bracket predicting fun, more the merrier. Can also pm me or post here or in its own thread, I will monitor where things get posted if you dont wish to go back to old times. Link
(This post was last modified: 03-03-2015 07:28 AM by dan10.)
03-03-2015 07:24 AM
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TribePride91 Offline
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Post: #22
RE: 2015 CAA Tournament Bracket
Nothing like letting the facts get in the way of a CAA tourney preview from midmajor madness. See below:

It was the first time in head coach Tony Shaver's tenure at William & Mary that the Tribe finished with a share of the regular season title. The school has only won their regular season twice in their nearly 80 year D-I history, the others being in 1998 and 1983.

Meanwhile at UNCW, head coach Kevin Keatts took the Seahawks from worst to first in his very first season in Wilmington. The Seahawks have not won the CAA's regular season since current Clemson coach Brad Brownell led UNCW to first place in two of his four seasons at the university.

Check out our final edition of the CAA power rankings with insight into each team's tournament hopes.

1. William & Mary Tribe (18-11, 12-6 CAA, LW- 1):

Tournament matchup: #1 Tribe vs. Elon/Towson winner, March 7, Noon

The Tribe have one of the most complete teams in the CAA tournament, being able to have plenty of scoring options behind star Marcus Thornton. They came within three points of getting to the NCAA Tournament in 2014 and are poised to make it back to the CAA Championship game this season. The Tribe went 2-0 against Towson and 1-1 against Elon during the regular season. You know they want to see Northeastern in the finals, who they blew out at home back in January.

2. Northeastern Huskies (20-11, 12-6, LW- 3):

Tournament matchup: #3 Huskies vs. #6 Delaware, March 7, 8:30 p.m.

The way the seeding ended up, the tournament is set up for a championship game between the Huskies and the Tribe. The Huskies stumbled a bit towards the end of the regular season, losing a crucial road game to Elon that could have helped them win the regular season title outright, but did just enough to hang in the top group. Northeastern went 1-1 against Delaware this season, with each team winning on the road.

3. UNCW Seahawks (17-12, 12-6, LW- 2):

Tournament matchup: #2 Seahawks vs. Drexel/CofC winner, March 7, 6 p.m.

The cinderella darling of the regular season looks to be the surprise of the tournament as well. The last time UNCW made the NCAA Tournament was in 2006 and their do-it-all duo of Addison Spruill and Freddie Jackson look to get them back this season. The Seahawks went 1-1 against Drexel and 2-0 against Charleston in the regular season. UNCW will have confidence against William & Mary if they happen to meet in the finals, winning both regular season meetings with the Tribe.

Looking for other articles with perhaps more accurate facts. I did see one that predicts Hofstra. I don't think given how the season went, that there is a clear favorite. All the teams have proven unable to stand prosperity.

BTW, I will be shocked if Keatts does not win Coach of the Year. It is deserved. I didn't include the rest of the article which had previews for the other 7 teams. I personally don't have any preference over who the Tribe plays. We can beat anyone, and we can lose to anyone. Given history, I'd like to avoid Delaware, I guess.

I don't think most actual CAA fans think Northeastern is a clear favorite. It is wide open.
(This post was last modified: 03-03-2015 06:31 PM by TribePride91.)
03-03-2015 06:24 PM
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B_Hawk06 Offline
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Post: #23
RE: 2015 CAA Tournament Bracket
(03-03-2015 06:24 PM)TribePride91 Wrote:  Nothing like letting the facts get in the way of a CAA tourney preview from midmajor madness. See below:

It was the first time in head coach Tony Shaver's tenure at William & Mary that the Tribe finished with a share of the regular season title. The school has only won their regular season twice in their nearly 80 year D-I history, the others being in 1998 and 1983.

Meanwhile at UNCW, head coach Kevin Keatts took the Seahawks from worst to first in his very first season in Wilmington. The Seahawks have not won the CAA's regular season since current Clemson coach Brad Brownell led UNCW to first place in two of his four seasons at the university.

Check out our final edition of the CAA power rankings with insight into each team's tournament hopes.

1. William & Mary Tribe (18-11, 12-6 CAA, LW- 1):

Tournament matchup: #1 Tribe vs. Elon/Towson winner, March 7, Noon

The Tribe have one of the most complete teams in the CAA tournament, being able to have plenty of scoring options behind star Marcus Thornton. They came within three points of getting to the NCAA Tournament in 2014 and are poised to make it back to the CAA Championship game this season. The Tribe went 2-0 against Towson and 1-1 against Elon during the regular season. You know they want to see Northeastern in the finals, who they blew out at home back in January.

2. Northeastern Huskies (20-11, 12-6, LW- 3):

Tournament matchup: #3 Huskies vs. #6 Delaware, March 7, 8:30 p.m.

The way the seeding ended up, the tournament is set up for a championship game between the Huskies and the Tribe. The Huskies stumbled a bit towards the end of the regular season, losing a crucial road game to Elon that could have helped them win the regular season title outright, but did just enough to hang in the top group. Northeastern went 1-1 against Delaware this season, with each team winning on the road.

3. UNCW Seahawks (17-12, 12-6, LW- 2):

Tournament matchup: #2 Seahawks vs. Drexel/CofC winner, March 7, 6 p.m.

The cinderella darling of the regular season looks to be the surprise of the tournament as well. The last time UNCW made the NCAA Tournament was in 2006 and their do-it-all duo of Addison Spruill and Freddie Jackson look to get them back this season. The Seahawks went 1-1 against Drexel and 2-0 against Charleston in the regular season. UNCW will have confidence against William & Mary if they happen to meet in the finals, winning both regular season meetings with the Tribe.

Looking for other articles with perhaps more accurate facts. I did see one that predicts Hofstra. I don't think given how the season went, that there is a clear favorite. All the teams have proven unable to stand prosperity.

BTW, I will be shocked if Keatts does not win Coach of the Year. It is deserved. I didn't include the rest of the article which had previews for the other 7 teams. I personally don't have any preference over who the Tribe plays. We can beat anyone, and we can lose to anyone. Given history, I'd like to avoid Delaware, I guess.

I don't think most actual CAA fans think Northeastern is a clear favorite. It is wide open.

I'm willing to bet the person that wrote all of that either doesn't have an editor or neither are competent enough to do some simple fact checking.

Predicting the CAA winner is about as easy as predicting next years Super Bowl winner today. Lots of options, some better than others, but no pick is safe.
03-03-2015 08:00 PM
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82hawk Offline
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Post: #24
RE: 2015 CAA Tournament Bracket
It's got to be hard to write about a conference when you don't know the details. I don't think anyone that knows the CAA would pick Northeastern as a favorite to win the tournament, and certainly not Hofstra.

UNCW and W&M would likely be picked by those in the know.
03-03-2015 08:16 PM
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B_Hawk06 Offline
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Post: #25
RE: 2015 CAA Tournament Bracket
(03-03-2015 08:16 PM)82hawk Wrote:  It's got to be hard to write about a conference when you don't know the details. I don't think anyone that knows the CAA would pick Northeastern as a favorite to win the tournament, and certainly not Hofstra.

UNCW and W&M would likely be picked by those in the know.

NU can't be a favorite, but they certainly have a better shot than Hofstra. Hofstra has been a bit of a circus in terms of pre-season expectations. That's probably bleed over from them making the CAA final last year.
03-03-2015 08:24 PM
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solohawks Offline
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Post: #26
RE: 2015 CAA Tournament Bracket
Current RPI Rankings

Northeastern 97
W&M 100
JMU 139
UNCW 140

Most non followers of the CAA take glance at the tie and the RPI and assume Northeastern is the favorite
03-03-2015 08:37 PM
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TribePride91 Offline
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Post: #27
RE: 2015 CAA Tournament Bracket
(03-03-2015 08:24 PM)CoastGuardHawk06 Wrote:  
(03-03-2015 08:16 PM)82hawk Wrote:  It's got to be hard to write about a conference when you don't know the details. I don't think anyone that knows the CAA would pick Northeastern as a favorite to win the tournament, and certainly not Hofstra.

UNCW and W&M would likely be picked by those in the know.

NU can't be a favorite, but they certainly have a better shot than Hofstra. Hofstra has been a bit of a circus in terms of pre-season expectations. That's probably bleed over from them making the CAA final last year.

That's funny. Now all we need is for someone to quote that Hofstra was in the CAA finals last year in their article. BTW, the Saturday games are not even on TV in the Western half of Virginia.
03-03-2015 08:46 PM
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B_Hawk06 Offline
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Post: #28
RE: 2015 CAA Tournament Bracket
(03-03-2015 08:46 PM)TribePride91 Wrote:  
(03-03-2015 08:24 PM)CoastGuardHawk06 Wrote:  
(03-03-2015 08:16 PM)82hawk Wrote:  It's got to be hard to write about a conference when you don't know the details. I don't think anyone that knows the CAA would pick Northeastern as a favorite to win the tournament, and certainly not Hofstra.

UNCW and W&M would likely be picked by those in the know.

NU can't be a favorite, but they certainly have a better shot than Hofstra. Hofstra has been a bit of a circus in terms of pre-season expectations. That's probably bleed over from them making the CAA final last year.

That's funny. Now all we need is for someone to quote that Hofstra was in the CAA finals last year in their article. BTW, the Saturday games are not even on TV in the Western half of Virginia.

hahahaha. Crap. I messed that up. Delaware. Goodness. I wasn't even drinking that time. No better time to start though I suppose...

04-cheers
03-03-2015 08:54 PM
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solohawks Offline
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Post: #29
RE: 2015 CAA Tournament Bracket
(03-03-2015 08:46 PM)TribePride91 Wrote:  
(03-03-2015 08:24 PM)CoastGuardHawk06 Wrote:  
(03-03-2015 08:16 PM)82hawk Wrote:  It's got to be hard to write about a conference when you don't know the details. I don't think anyone that knows the CAA would pick Northeastern as a favorite to win the tournament, and certainly not Hofstra.

UNCW and W&M would likely be picked by those in the know.

NU can't be a favorite, but they certainly have a better shot than Hofstra. Hofstra has been a bit of a circus in terms of pre-season expectations. That's probably bleed over from them making the CAA final last year.

That's funny. Now all we need is for someone to quote that Hofstra was in the CAA finals last year in their article. BTW, the Saturday games are not even on TV in the Western half of Virginia.

No comcast sportsnet in western Va?
03-03-2015 08:57 PM
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82hawk Offline
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Post: #30
RE: 2015 CAA Tournament Bracket
(03-03-2015 08:37 PM)solohawks Wrote:  Current RPI Rankings

Northeastern 97
W&M 100
JMU 139
UNCW 140

Most non followers of the CAA take glance at the tie and the RPI and assume Northeastern is the favorite


JMU ahead of UNCW? And didn't we sweep NU? If this doesn't show how bogus RPI is, I don't know what does.
03-03-2015 08:58 PM
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B_Hawk06 Offline
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Post: #31
RE: 2015 CAA Tournament Bracket
(03-03-2015 08:58 PM)82hawk Wrote:  
(03-03-2015 08:37 PM)solohawks Wrote:  Current RPI Rankings

Northeastern 97
W&M 100
JMU 139
UNCW 140

Most non followers of the CAA take glance at the tie and the RPI and assume Northeastern is the favorite


JMU ahead of UNCW? And didn't we sweep NU? If this doesn't show how bogus RPI is, I don't know what does.

Not necessarily 82...

1. JMU won more games than we did overall.

2. They played two ranked opponents (UVA and OSU)

3. I'm not sure about the NU deal. The only thing they had going for them was a 20 win regular season, including a win at FSU. However, they played zero ranked opponents, but some historically tough mid-majors (Harvard, Richmond, and Saint Mary's).
03-03-2015 09:07 PM
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82hawk Offline
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Post: #32
RE: 2015 CAA Tournament Bracket
(03-03-2015 09:07 PM)CoastGuardHawk06 Wrote:  
(03-03-2015 08:58 PM)82hawk Wrote:  
(03-03-2015 08:37 PM)solohawks Wrote:  Current RPI Rankings

Northeastern 97
W&M 100
JMU 139
UNCW 140

Most non followers of the CAA take glance at the tie and the RPI and assume Northeastern is the favorite


JMU ahead of UNCW? And didn't we sweep NU? If this doesn't show how bogus RPI is, I don't know what does.

Not necessarily 82...

1. JMU won more games than we did overall.

2. They played two ranked opponents (UVA and OSU)

3. I'm not sure about the NU deal. The only thing they had going for them was a 20 win regular season, including a win at FSU. However, they played zero ranked opponents, but some historically tough mid-majors (Harvard, Richmond, and Saint Mary's).

That's my point. If you sweep two teams in conference play, it's hard for me to understand RPI not accounting for that.
03-03-2015 10:05 PM
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solohawks Offline
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Post: #33
RE: 2015 CAA Tournament Bracket
Jmu and northeastern have fewer bad losses than we do. In rpi its better to lose to a top 100 team then beat a team under 200
03-03-2015 10:07 PM
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B_Hawk06 Offline
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Post: #34
RE: 2015 CAA Tournament Bracket
(03-03-2015 10:05 PM)82hawk Wrote:  
(03-03-2015 09:07 PM)CoastGuardHawk06 Wrote:  
(03-03-2015 08:58 PM)82hawk Wrote:  
(03-03-2015 08:37 PM)solohawks Wrote:  Current RPI Rankings

Northeastern 97
W&M 100
JMU 139
UNCW 140

Most non followers of the CAA take glance at the tie and the RPI and assume Northeastern is the favorite


JMU ahead of UNCW? And didn't we sweep NU? If this doesn't show how bogus RPI is, I don't know what does.

Not necessarily 82...

1. JMU won more games than we did overall.

2. They played two ranked opponents (UVA and OSU)

3. I'm not sure about the NU deal. The only thing they had going for them was a 20 win regular season, including a win at FSU. However, they played zero ranked opponents, but some historically tough mid-majors (Harvard, Richmond, and Saint Mary's).

That's my point. If you sweep two teams in conference play, it's hard for me to understand RPI not accounting for that.

That's why I'm of the opinion that our RPI is at 140. Does anyone know what it was at the beginning of the season or predicted to be?

Let's not forget that in terms of predictions, our team over-achieved in every sense of the words this season. That being said, I'll be more apt to fume about RPI being a sham in future seasons where we are expected to be good. Because this year... we were not expected to be good.

This season gave me that elated feeling every 5 year old gets when you take them to one of those kid gym places and they belly flop into a ball pit. That's what UNCW men's basketball did for me this year. Next year, I'll be expecting them to give me that, "Oh snap, I just got past first base with my first girlfriend..." feeling. We'll see...
(This post was last modified: 03-03-2015 10:13 PM by B_Hawk06.)
03-03-2015 10:12 PM
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Seahawkhoops Offline
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Post: #35
RE: 2015 CAA Tournament Bracket
(03-03-2015 10:07 PM)solohawks Wrote:  Jmu and northeastern have fewer bad losses than we do. In rpi its better to lose to a top 100 team then beat a team under 200

^^^^ That.... I didn't see prior to Elon but i'm sure that killed our RPI, as did our bad loss to Campbell
(This post was last modified: 03-03-2015 10:16 PM by Seahawkhoops.)
03-03-2015 10:15 PM
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Seahawk Nation 08 Offline
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Post: #36
RE: 2015 CAA Tournament Bracket
Not sure how we can really complain about a purely mathematical formula or call it "bogus". It's a helpful, objective tool that never claimed to be the be-all-and-end-all.

Since everyone plays the same conference schedule, non-conference is what made the difference in the RPI among the four 12-6 CAA teams.

Our RPI was effectively killed in non-conference play when we lost to Ohio (9-19, # 234 RPI) and Campbell (7-21, # 320). Meanwhile, our only 2 top-100 RPI wins are in conference play over Northeastern. The RPI doesn't weight games later in the year any heavier than earlier games, so the fact that we improved over the course of the year has no bearing or importance in this discussion.

NU's worst loss in non-conference play was against Cal Poly (11-14, # 185) in a semi-road game at Santa Clara. They also had 2 decent road wins @ Richmond (17-12, # 64) and @ Florida St (15-15, # 118). Avoiding RPI-crippling losses in non-conference play while also stealing a win or 2 you aren't supposed to get is crucial.

JMU also avoided bad losses. They went 14-1 against 200+ RPI teams. That one loss was @ ECU (11-16, # 222) who, while bad, isn't Campbell bad. Like NU they also beat Richmond, though in this case it was at home. What hurt JMU the most was failing to earn a win against any of the top 3 CAA teams. But their non-conference efforts and ability to avoid bad losses put them on even keel with us in RPI.

None of this says NU or JMU are better teams than us. It just means NU has a better overall body of work when factoring in a full season, and JMU has about an equal overall body of work. In the CAA based on tiebreakers, we were 2nd to W&M with NU and JMU behind us, which we all are aware is the correct pecking order.
(This post was last modified: 03-04-2015 07:28 AM by Seahawk Nation 08.)
03-04-2015 07:18 AM
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solohawks Offline
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Post: #37
RE: 2015 CAA Tournament Bracket
(03-03-2015 10:12 PM)CoastGuardHawk06 Wrote:  
(03-03-2015 10:05 PM)82hawk Wrote:  
(03-03-2015 09:07 PM)CoastGuardHawk06 Wrote:  
(03-03-2015 08:58 PM)82hawk Wrote:  
(03-03-2015 08:37 PM)solohawks Wrote:  Current RPI Rankings

Northeastern 97
W&M 100
JMU 139
UNCW 140

Most non followers of the CAA take glance at the tie and the RPI and assume Northeastern is the favorite


JMU ahead of UNCW? And didn't we sweep NU? If this doesn't show how bogus RPI is, I don't know what does.

Not necessarily 82...

1. JMU won more games than we did overall.

2. They played two ranked opponents (UVA and OSU)

3. I'm not sure about the NU deal. The only thing they had going for them was a 20 win regular season, including a win at FSU. However, they played zero ranked opponents, but some historically tough mid-majors (Harvard, Richmond, and Saint Mary's).

That's my point. If you sweep two teams in conference play, it's hard for me to understand RPI not accounting for that.

That's why I'm of the opinion that our RPI is at 140. Does anyone know what it was at the beginning of the season or predicted to be?

Let's not forget that in terms of predictions, our team over-achieved in every sense of the words this season. That being said, I'll be more apt to fume about RPI being a sham in future seasons where we are expected to be good. Because this year... we were not expected to be good.

This season gave me that elated feeling every 5 year old gets when you take them to one of those kid gym places and they belly flop into a ball pit. That's what UNCW men's basketball did for me this year. Next year, I'll be expecting them to give me that, "Oh snap, I just got past first base with my first girlfriend..." feeling. We'll see...

RPI is ranking of your schedule and how you did against that schedule. Everyone starts at 0

25% is your winning %
50% is your opponents winning %
25% is your opponents opponents winning %

A home win now counts as 0.6 win, while a road win counts as 1.4 wins
Inversely, a home loss equals 1.4 losses, while a road loss counts as 0.6 loss. A neutral game counts as 1 win or 1 loss.

RPI = (WP * 0.25) + (OWP * 0.50) + (OOWP * 0.25)

Here is the SOS rankings
NE 182
W&M 150
JMU 156
UNCW 215

NE has 4 more wins than W&M despite the same number of losses that along with the the Drexel loss gives NE the edge over W&M

JMU has 3 more wins that UNCW desipte the same number of losses JMU only has one really bad loss (to ECU, rpi 221) compared to our bad losses of Hofstra, Elon, Delaware, Drexel, Ohio, and Campbell (who is in the 300s). We have some good wins over NE and JMU that help balance it out.
03-04-2015 07:45 AM
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solohawks Offline
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RE: 2015 CAA Tournament Bracket
sorry SN08 didnt mean put duplicate info!
03-04-2015 07:47 AM
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Seahawk Nation 08 Offline
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Post: #39
RE: 2015 CAA Tournament Bracket
(03-04-2015 07:47 AM)solohawks Wrote:  sorry SN08 didnt mean put duplicate info!

Nah man, we tag-teamed that sh*t. Nicely done. 04-cheers
03-04-2015 07:48 AM
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Seahawk Nation 08 Offline
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Post: #40
RE: 2015 CAA Tournament Bracket
(03-03-2015 10:12 PM)CoastGuardHawk06 Wrote:  Next year, I'll be expecting them to give me that, "Oh snap, I just got past first base with my first girlfriend..." feeling. We'll see...

If that's anything like my experience we'll collectively feel awkward and laughed at. No thanks.
03-04-2015 07:50 AM
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