or we're probably sitting at home, and even if we win, there's no iron clad guarantee we'll go. Regardless of how things play out in the coaching situation, I want our men to have the experience of playing in the tournament. Especially our Seniors. This will be their last chance, and they've earned the right to have that experience before the graduate.

(03-02-2015 12:22 PM)outsideualr Wrote:  or we're probably sitting at home, and even if we win, there's no iron clad guarantee we'll go. Regardless of how things play out in the coaching situation, I want our men to have the experience of playing in the tournament. Especially our Seniors. This will be their last chance, and they've earned the right to have that experience before the graduate.

If Little Rock can win at ULL, the Trojans are in for sure. With a two game or more lead at that point over ASU and Troy with one game to play, Little Rock would definitely qualify.

(03-02-2015 12:28 PM)PTJR Wrote:  

(03-02-2015 12:22 PM)outsideualr Wrote:  or we're probably sitting at home, and even if we win, there's no iron clad guarantee we'll go. Regardless of how things play out in the coaching situation, I want our men to have the experience of playing in the tournament. Especially our Seniors. This will be their last chance, and they've earned the right to have that experience before the graduate.

If Little Rock can win at ULL, the Trojans are in for sure. With a two game or more lead at that point over ASU and Troy with one game to play, Little Rock would definitely qualify.

No doubt we are in with a win. Right now the statistical odds of us being out of the tournament are probably less than 5%. That's the odds of everything going wrong this week including us losing to ULL. A loss and we are still very likely to be in, but I will be doing a lot of sweating unless ASU loses to USA on Thursday at the same time we are playing. Texas State losing to AppST and GaSt beating ULM, are 2 results that could really be helpful (if ASU wins) but won't clinch anything for us if we lose. We would then need Texas State to lose at ULM on Saturday, or Troy to win at USA, or ULL to win at ASU to avoid tie-breaker scenarios to get in. GaSt winning again at home against GaSou would probably assure us winning a tie-breaker if needed to get in.

So to reply to the original post- It is iron clad that we are in with a win. We are probably not sitting home even if we lose. The odds are strongly in our favor that we will go even with a loss. But, like I have already said- with our luck at UALR I am still quite worried about the possibility of sitting home.

The odds of you guys not getting in are very low, however this is the Sun Belt, so it wouldnt shock me at all if all those crazy scenarios did come to pass to keep UALR out.

The only way I would sweat if I was a UALR fan would be if by midnight Thursday Texas State had beaten App, AState had beaten USA, and ULM had beaten Georgia State. Considering ULM probably beats Texas State at home, and USA probably beats Troy at home, you could potentially be hoping and praying that the Cajuns turn around and beat ASU in a game where they will likely have little real incentive with a seed secure.

(03-02-2015 09:44 PM)chiefsfan Wrote:  The odds of you guys not getting in are very low, however this is the Sun Belt, so it wouldnt shock me at all if all those crazy scenarios did come to pass to keep UALR out.

The only way I would sweat if I was a UALR fan would be if by midnight Thursday Texas State had beaten App, AState had beaten USA, and ULM had beaten Georgia State. Considering ULM probably beats Texas State at home, and USA probably beats Troy at home, you could potentially be hoping and praying that the Cajuns turn around and beat ASU in a game where they will likely have little real incentive with a seed secure.

So on Thursday, 4 things would have to go wrong for us to really be sweating on Saturday. UALR loses, ASU wins, Texas State wins, ULM wins.

(03-02-2015 10:21 PM)mjs Wrote:  

(03-02-2015 09:44 PM)chiefsfan Wrote:  The odds of you guys not getting in are very low, however this is the Sun Belt, so it wouldnt shock me at all if all those crazy scenarios did come to pass to keep UALR out.

The only way I would sweat if I was a UALR fan would be if by midnight Thursday Texas State had beaten App, AState had beaten USA, and ULM had beaten Georgia State. Considering ULM probably beats Texas State at home, and USA probably beats Troy at home, you could potentially be hoping and praying that the Cajuns turn around and beat ASU in a game where they will likely have little real incentive with a seed secure.

So on Thursday, 4 things would have to go wrong for us to really be sweating on Saturday. UALR loses, ASU wins, Texas State wins, ULM wins.

Correct
I will point out that if Texas State was to win out...and all other results go wrong for UALR, you are still out. The difference is how that tiebreak affects ASU

1. Texas State wins out
2. UALR loses to ULM
3. ASU wins out
4. USA beats Troy
5. ULM beats GSU

3 way Tie for 7-8 between UALR, USA, and ASU. Texas State is 9-11 and in 6th and not involved. All went 2-2 vs each other, so in this case ASU gets the 7 based on win vs ULM, and USA gets the 8 by sweeping you guys. However, if Georgia State beats ULM, UALR is in as the 7, and ASU is in as the 8 by sweeping USA.

Really, if Texas State beats App, you throw their result against ULM out of the equation entirely, and focus only on ASU losing to ULL, and USA losing to Troy. the reason is that Texas State's going to be the 6 seed either way pretty much, so it really only comes down to the 3 team tie between us two and USA.

Had you guys lost to Georgia State, you'd be in a bit of a pickle right now.

(03-02-2015 11:42 PM)chiefsfan Wrote:  

(03-02-2015 10:21 PM)mjs Wrote:  

(03-02-2015 09:44 PM)chiefsfan Wrote:  The odds of you guys not getting in are very low, however this is the Sun Belt, so it wouldnt shock me at all if all those crazy scenarios did come to pass to keep UALR out.

The only way I would sweat if I was a UALR fan would be if by midnight Thursday Texas State had beaten App, AState had beaten USA, and ULM had beaten Georgia State. Considering ULM probably beats Texas State at home, and USA probably beats Troy at home, you could potentially be hoping and praying that the Cajuns turn around and beat ASU in a game where they will likely have little real incentive with a seed secure.

So on Thursday, 4 things would have to go wrong for us to really be sweating on Saturday. UALR loses, ASU wins, Texas State wins, ULM wins.

Correct
I will point out that if Texas State was to win out...and all other results go wrong for UALR, you are still out. The difference is how that tiebreak affects ASU

1. Texas State wins out
2. UALR loses to ULM
3. ASU wins out
4. USA beats Troy
5. ULM beats GSU

3 way Tie for 7-8 between UALR, USA, and ASU. Texas State is 9-11 and in 6th and not involved. All went 2-2 vs each other, so in this case ASU gets the 7 based on win vs ULM, and USA gets the 8 by sweeping you guys. However, if Georgia State beats ULM, UALR is in as the 7, and ASU is in as the 8 by sweeping USA.

Really, if Texas State beats App, you throw their result against ULM out of the equation entirely, and focus only on ASU losing to ULL, and USA losing to Troy. the reason is that Texas State's going to be the 6 seed either way pretty much, so it really only comes down to the 3 team tie between us two and USA.

Had you guys lost to Georgia State, you'd be in a bit of a pickle right now.

Considering the way AppSt destroyed ULM, I have to think they have a good chance to beat Texas State. However, then Texas State plays the team AppSt pummeled. Still would expect ULM to beat Texas State, but this is the Sun Belt. Of course, the best thing would be for us just to take care of business at ULL, on Thursday, but I think we are a longshot to do that.