(03-04-2015 10:54 AM)HeartOfDixie Wrote:  

(03-04-2015 10:52 AM)NIU007 Wrote:  

(03-04-2015 10:45 AM)HeartOfDixie Wrote:  The lack of communication with the U.S. demonstrates perfectly the fact just about everybody has lost faith in the United States and this President.

The head of the Polish military made a comment to several reporters that he would flip a coin when asked whether or not he thought the US would intervene on Poland's side in the event of a war with Russia.

It's gotten very bad for us on the international level. It's never been worse in fact.

We'd have much more capability of helping the Poles now that we aren't tied down in Iraq.

Capability and will are two separate things.

Sure, and will isn't enough by itself either.

(03-04-2015 10:59 AM)vandiver49 Wrote:  

(03-04-2015 10:45 AM)HeartOfDixie Wrote:  The lack of communication with the U.S. demonstrates perfectly the fact just about everybody has lost faith in the United States and this President.

The head of the Polish military made a comment to several reporters that he would flip a coin when asked whether or not he thought the US would intervene on Poland's side in the event of a war with Russia.

It's gotten very bad for us on the international level. It's never been worse in fact.

That was the plan after all. Oh and the Poland military Chief of Staff can keep his coin in his pocket. The US will not intervene on Poland's behalf if Russia invaded.

What faith did they have? What were their expectations? What exactly was it that the U.S. was supposed to do for them?

(03-04-2015 10:50 AM)NIU007 Wrote:  

(03-04-2015 10:41 AM)I45owl Wrote:  

(03-04-2015 10:34 AM)NIU007 Wrote:  It sounds like an interesting jumble of different forces going against ISIS. Are they working together?

The obvious answer is no - otherwise, the US would've run bombing missions in advance of the Iranian troops. But, if history is a guide, and the "enemy of my enemy" guidance is in play, then they will work together as long as they need to, and stab each other in the back when they can.

Iran and ISIS have aligned together in a perverse sense to keep Assad in power and will align against each other as Iran can consolidate power in Iraq and Syria. Iran will manipulate the US to spend treasure and burn bridges when it can, but will obviously shut the US out of Iraqi governance as much as it can. How Iran and the Kurds play out will be interesting. Iran would shut down the Kurds if they can, but I don't believe that will happen. The US should build up the Kurds as much as it can, but probably won't because it would anger the Turks.

I was asking if the Iraqis were working together, not with the US but with each other - Iraqi army along with the Shia and the Kurds. For this assault specifically.

right, but we're just another tribe. Don't expect too much love between Persian and Arab or Shiite and Kurd or Iraqis and Americans in any permutation of events on the ground there.

In this case, I don't think the Kurds are involved at all. When it comes to Mosul, I would expect them to be involved in a great triangle of gunfire, but I would also expect American bombs to fall during that effort.

(03-04-2015 11:10 AM)NIU007 Wrote:  

(03-04-2015 10:59 AM)vandiver49 Wrote:  

(03-04-2015 10:45 AM)HeartOfDixie Wrote:  The lack of communication with the U.S. demonstrates perfectly the fact just about everybody has lost faith in the United States and this President.

The head of the Polish military made a comment to several reporters that he would flip a coin when asked whether or not he thought the US would intervene on Poland's side in the event of a war with Russia.

It's gotten very bad for us on the international level. It's never been worse in fact.

That was the plan after all. Oh and the Poland military Chief of Staff can keep his coin in his pocket. The US will not intervene on Poland's behalf if Russia invaded.

What faith did they have? What were their expectations? What exactly was it that the U.S. was supposed to do for them?

Poland is a member of NATO...

(03-04-2015 11:23 AM)HeartOfDixie Wrote:  

(03-04-2015 11:10 AM)NIU007 Wrote:  

(03-04-2015 10:59 AM)vandiver49 Wrote:  

(03-04-2015 10:45 AM)HeartOfDixie Wrote:  The lack of communication with the U.S. demonstrates perfectly the fact just about everybody has lost faith in the United States and this President.

The head of the Polish military made a comment to several reporters that he would flip a coin when asked whether or not he thought the US would intervene on Poland's side in the event of a war with Russia.

It's gotten very bad for us on the international level. It's never been worse in fact.

That was the plan after all. Oh and the Poland military Chief of Staff can keep his coin in his pocket. The US will not intervene on Poland's behalf if Russia invaded.

What faith did they have? What were their expectations? What exactly was it that the U.S. was supposed to do for them?

Poland is a member of NATO...

Which is a body that won't do anything militarily without US assistance. I'll have to go find the link, but after the break up of the USSR there was supposed to be an understanding that former Warsaw Pact states would act as a buffer between the EU and Russia. Poland petitioned to join NATO anyway, which Russia interprets as a threat. Remember back when the US was going to put the European Interceptor Complex in Poland that was eventually cancelled?

(03-04-2015 11:23 AM)HeartOfDixie Wrote:  

(03-04-2015 11:10 AM)NIU007 Wrote:  

(03-04-2015 10:59 AM)vandiver49 Wrote:  

(03-04-2015 10:45 AM)HeartOfDixie Wrote:  The lack of communication with the U.S. demonstrates perfectly the fact just about everybody has lost faith in the United States and this President.

The head of the Polish military made a comment to several reporters that he would flip a coin when asked whether or not he thought the US would intervene on Poland's side in the event of a war with Russia.

It's gotten very bad for us on the international level. It's never been worse in fact.

That was the plan after all. Oh and the Poland military Chief of Staff can keep his coin in his pocket. The US will not intervene on Poland's behalf if Russia invaded.

What faith did they have? What were their expectations? What exactly was it that the U.S. was supposed to do for them?

Poland is a member of NATO...

That doesn't answer the question. What have we not done?

(03-04-2015 11:22 AM)I45owl Wrote:  

(03-04-2015 10:50 AM)NIU007 Wrote:  

(03-04-2015 10:41 AM)I45owl Wrote:  

(03-04-2015 10:34 AM)NIU007 Wrote:  It sounds like an interesting jumble of different forces going against ISIS. Are they working together?

The obvious answer is no - otherwise, the US would've run bombing missions in advance of the Iranian troops. But, if history is a guide, and the "enemy of my enemy" guidance is in play, then they will work together as long as they need to, and stab each other in the back when they can.

Iran and ISIS have aligned together in a perverse sense to keep Assad in power and will align against each other as Iran can consolidate power in Iraq and Syria. Iran will manipulate the US to spend treasure and burn bridges when it can, but will obviously shut the US out of Iraqi governance as much as it can. How Iran and the Kurds play out will be interesting. Iran would shut down the Kurds if they can, but I don't believe that will happen. The US should build up the Kurds as much as it can, but probably won't because it would anger the Turks.

I was asking if the Iraqis were working together, not with the US but with each other - Iraqi army along with the Shia and the Kurds. For this assault specifically.

right, but we're just another tribe. Don't expect too much love between Persian and Arab or Shiite and Kurd or Iraqis and Americans in any permutation of events on the ground there.

In this case, I don't think the Kurds are involved at all. When it comes to Mosul, I would expect them to be involved in a great triangle of gunfire, but I would also expect American bombs to fall during that effort.

I wouldn't expect much love between them, which is why I asked the question. Attacking one city with 3 different groups could easily cause casualties by friendly fire, unless they're cooperating at least minimally, or have separated their areas of attack sufficiently.

So if Iran is going into Iraq to fight ISIS and then probably into Syria for the same and later into say Yemen, How do We react to when Iran suddenly becomes an occupying force in those countries ? You really think Iran would not take over once there and become a nuclear Power ? How long before They move on other Countries in the region and eventually into Israel ? I honestly don't see any good outcome in helping or bringing Iran into any situation in the region. Ever!

(03-04-2015 12:33 PM)CardFan1 Wrote:  So if Iran is going into Iraq to fight ISIS and then probably into Syria for the same and later into say Yemen, How do We react to when Iran suddenly becomes an occupying force in those countries ?

We thank them? What else can we do but say "Thank you sir! May I have another?" We set the world up for them to take, we may as well thank them for the follow through.

(03-04-2015 12:33 PM)CardFan1 Wrote:  You really think Iran would not take over once there and become a nuclear Power ? How long before They move on other Countries in the region and eventually into Israel ? I honestly don't see any good outcome in helping or bringing Iran into any situation in the region. Ever!

Never say never. Should the Mullahs fall, they would be a great ally. Should the Castros ever die, Cuba would be a great vacation spot.

(03-04-2015 10:54 AM)HeartOfDixie Wrote:  

(03-04-2015 10:52 AM)NIU007 Wrote:  

(03-04-2015 10:45 AM)HeartOfDixie Wrote:  The lack of communication with the U.S. demonstrates perfectly the fact just about everybody has lost faith in the United States and this President.

The head of the Polish military made a comment to several reporters that he would flip a coin when asked whether or not he thought the US would intervene on Poland's side in the event of a war with Russia.

It's gotten very bad for us on the international level. It's never been worse in fact.

We'd have much more capability of helping the Poles now that we aren't tied down in Iraq.

Capability and will are two separate things.

These situations were all set up for failure by multiple errors in the 1990s. Allowing Saddam to stand with requisite containment forces was a massive mistake... it would've been better to allow him to have Kuwait.

The Agreement between the US, Russia, and Ukraine that secured Ukrainian nukes was unenforceable from the US perspective and intolerable from the Russian perspective (so as to be worthless from their POV). It may have been better to allow Russia to invade to retrieve their nukes.

There was no likely way to recover from those mistakes that didn't involve a lot of luck on our part or good will by our adversaries.

(03-04-2015 01:54 PM)I45owl Wrote:  

(03-04-2015 12:33 PM)CardFan1 Wrote:  So if Iran is going into Iraq to fight ISIS and then probably into Syria for the same and later into say Yemen, How do We react to when Iran suddenly becomes an occupying force in those countries ?

We thank them? What else can we do but say "Thank you sir! May I have another?" We set the world up for them to take, we may as well thank them for the follow through.

(03-04-2015 12:33 PM)CardFan1 Wrote:  You really think Iran would not take over once there and become a nuclear Power ? How long before They move on other Countries in the region and eventually into Israel ? I honestly don't see any good outcome in helping or bringing Iran into any situation in the region. Ever!

Never say never. Should the Mullahs fall, they would be a great ally. Should the Castros ever die, Cuba would be a great vacation spot.

Oops, I forgot to add Libya into the mix.

NATO has become an entity with little in the way of teeth.

The Europeans are not holding up their end of the bargain and not a single one has kept military spending about the 2% minimum.

The Germans are probably in some of the worst shape in comparison to expectations. Their little trip to Kurdistan ended in disaster when their plane got stuck in Bulgaria and they had no spare parts to get them the rest of the way. Their naval deployment off the horn of Africa has also shown how unprepared they are. They showed up without any of their helicopters because, well, none of them worked.

(03-04-2015 03:41 PM)HeartOfDixie Wrote:  NATO has become an entity with little in the way of teeth.

The Europeans are not holding up their end of the bargain and not a single one has kept military spending about the 2% minimum.

The Germans are probably in some of the worst shape in comparison to expectations. Their little trip to Kurdistan ended in disaster when their plane got stuck in Bulgaria and they had no spare parts to get them the rest of the way. Their naval deployment off the horn of Africa has also shown how unprepared they are. They showed up without any of their helicopters because, well, none of them worked.

Well sure, they don't need to spend any money on it, because we'll spend our money to protect them.