First of all here is what each team has left

GS: 2 games: 1 away (Ga. St.) 1 home (UTA)
Ga. St: 2 games: 1 away (ULM) 1 home (GS)
ULM: 2 games: 2 home (Ga. St, Texas St.)
Louisiana: 2 games: 1 away (Ark. St.) 1 home (UALR)
UTA: 2 games : 2 away (GS and App. St.)
USA: 2 games: 1 away (Ark. St.) 1 home (Troy)
UALR: 1 game: 1 away (Louisiana)
Ark. St.: 2 games: 2 home (USA, Louisiana)
Texas St.: 2 games: 2 away (App. St., ULM)
Troy: 1 game: 1 away (USA)
App. St.: 2 games: 2 home (Texas St., UTA)

Standings/Seedings after Feb. 28 games:

1. Ga. Southern (2-1 record vs. Ga. St and ULM) 13-5
2. Ga. State (1-1 record vs. GS and ULM) 13-5
3. ULM (1-2 record vs. Ga. St and GS) 13-5
4. Louisiana 11-7
5. Texas-Arlington 10-8
6. UALR 8-11
7. Texas St. (2-1 record vs. App and USA) 7-11
8. App. St. (2-1 record vs. Texas St. and USA) 7-11
9. South Alabama (1-3 vs. App and Texas St.) 7-11
10. Ark. St. 6-12
11. Troy 5-14

Since App is ineligible South Alabama has the #8 seed right now.

Out of tourney: App (ineligible) Ark. St. and Troy.

2 HUGE games the last week: Ga. State at ULM and GS at Ga. State.

8 seed Scenarios

First: Congratulations to Troy on becoming the second team to assure itself of watching the SBC tournament on the couch!

Normally take App out of consideration, but their record and standing does come into play for tiebreakers. However, the 8 seed battle is between Texas State, USA, and AState. One will be the 7 seed, One will be the 8 seed, One will watch from the couch. (There is potential to catch UALR for 6 for either USA or TXST)

The irony here is that all three of these teams control their own destiny to make the league tournament. This is because, someone out of USA/AState has to lose on Thursday in Jonesboro.

Texas State: Only team out of the bunch to need only one win (Either @ App or @ ULM) to make the tourney. If the Bobcats lose both games they need AState or USA to lose Twice, or for AState to lose to ULL and then for Georgia State to beat ULM in Monroe on Thursday (Gives Bobcats tiebreaker over Red Wolves)

USA: Jags situation is tricky. If they beat AState on thursday, they clinch a tournament berth. If they lose to AState on Thursday but beat Troy on Saturday, they will need AState to lose to ULL or for Texas State to lose out to advance. If the Jags lose to AState, they would have been swept by both AState and Texas State...so any tiebreaker does them in. Lose two and they are out...regardless what happens anywhere else.

AState: Red Wolves situation is pretty simple. If they beat USA AND ULL at home this week, they are in. If they lose to the Jags, it's not over, but they would have to beat the Cajuns, and Texas State would have to lose out, AND ULM would have to beat Georgia State on Thursday. Decent chance, Red Wolves are done by end of play thursday if they get beat. Now, if they beat USA on Thursday but lose Saturday, they would need Texas State to lose twice or USA to lose to Troy in order to make the tournament. In other words...The Red Wolves can get in with only one win, but they'd need a lot of help...

If Texas State beats App on Thusday and AState loses, there will be no Saturday drama. If only one of those happens, there will be lots left to play for on Saturday.

So what happens if....

GS: Beats UTA, loses to GaSt
GaSt: Loses to ULM, beats GS
ULM: Beats GaSt, loses to TxSt?

Puts all three teams at 2-2 vs each other.

What a frustrating year. If UTA beats the two last place teams like they are supposed to do and nothing else changes, they'd be a game out of first.

(02-28-2015 11:25 PM)FoUTASportscaster Wrote:  What a frustrating year. If UTA beats the two last place teams like they are supposed to do and nothing else changes, they'd be a game out of first.

. . . . . And that my friend, is why they PLAY the games. . . . .

(02-28-2015 11:21 PM)gsu_paintballer Wrote:  So what happens if....

GS: Beats UTA, loses to GaSt
GaSt: Loses to ULM, beats GS
ULM: Beats GaSt, loses to TxSt?

Puts all three teams at 2-2 vs each other.

The way I read it:

Record vs ULL GS 1-1, ULM, GSU 2-0 (Eagles eliminated from tiebreak)
Record vs UTA GSU 2-0 ULM 1-1 Panthers are the 1 seed.

ULM gets the 2 seed by virtue of sweeping ULL and GS gets the 3 seed.

FWIW, there is a scenario in which UALR gets left out of the league tourney. 5 separate things must happen perfectly, but it's possible.

(02-28-2015 11:21 PM)gsu_paintballer Wrote:  So what happens if....

GS: Beats UTA, loses to GaSt
GaSt: Loses to ULM, beats GS
ULM: Beats GaSt, loses to TxSt?

Puts all three teams at 2-2 vs each other.

. . . That made my head hurt . . . .

(03-01-2015 12:33 AM)Bobcat87 Wrote:  

(02-28-2015 11:21 PM)gsu_paintballer Wrote:  So what happens if....

GS: Beats UTA, loses to GaSt
GaSt: Loses to ULM, beats GS
ULM: Beats GaSt, loses to TxSt?

Puts all three teams at 2-2 vs each other.

. . . That made my head hurt . . . .

I'm totally confused by the whole varied scenarios thing. I only got that we need to win 1 more to be assured a 1 and done in the tourney. Is that right?