I've been impressed by the Dukes' ability to win games with a roster that is not nearly as strong as it should have been (just think if this team had Cooke, Nation, and Bessick all playing as Juniors we likely would be looking at the dominant team in the CAA).

I've watched this conference closely since the days of the ECAC South and I can't ever remember a season when there is so little separation from the top to the bottom. Literally, the last place teams have beaten the first place teams on multiple occasions. I think most fans understand and would not be surprised if any of the 10 teams wins the tournament in March and we will likely see the champion scrap and claw their way to 3 straight close victories in Baltimore.

The Dukes are likely to finish 4th or 5th in the standings and could very well play Hofstra again in the 1st tournament game.

Check out some telling stats...
Hofstra may be the most dangerous team as they have outscored opponents by 8.4 pts per game this year. They've lost some close ones, but are potent and the 17th highest scoring team in the nation.
William & Gary has outscored opponents by 7.6 pts per game and has the best offensive player in the CAA. They also have an historical drought of never reaching the NCAA tournament. Thornton may just will his team to the title and he is as close to unstoppable as any player in college basketball. The Tribe is more efficient than ever and are ranked 7th nationally in FG %.
Northeastern is a very experienced team and has outscored opponents by 3.4 pts per game. When the season started I thought they would be the best in the CAA, but their defense has not been good enough. Offensively, they are very good with ball movement and shot selection.
UNCW is a bit of a surprise this year and they are similar to JMU in that they have won a lot of close games. The Seahawks have only outscored their opponents by 1.3 pts per game yet are tied for the best record.
Lastly, JMU, has been clutch winning many, many close games while getting beat badly in some losses. Believe it or not, the Dukes have been outscored this year. Yep, opponents average 0.3 pts per game more than JMU.

In addition to the scoring deficit, the Dukes turn it over more than opponents and they get outrebounded by opponents. A 3 game run in the tourney will take more than willpower and desire. The Dukes will have to have better than average shooting games to have a chance. Currently the Dukes' CAA rank is 3rd in FG%, 4th in 3pt FG%, and 5th in FT%. They will have to be better than that and play above their heads. Ball movement and shot selection will be the only way they can sustain 3 games of hot shooting.

You can conclude what you want. The reality is that the CAA is a one bid league this year. We all know that some teams step up and some teams wilt under the pressure in "do or die" tournament games. I like that JMU has experienced many close games and has been victorious many times. I don't like that there is less margin for error and an off shooting night probably means the Dukes are going home.

I think the odds are equal for the possible outcomes in Baltimore.
25% JMU goes one and done with an abrupt end to the season
25% JMU wins one and loses in the Semis
25% JMU wins two and loses in the Finals
25% JMU wins three and goes dancing

The Dukes may end up 12-6 in CAA play and still have to pull off 3 straight upsets to go dancing. We'll need to be rooting for some lower seeds to knock off the top 3 teams so the road to the championship is a little easier.

One thing where I give the Dukes a good chance and why I see NE as the best team in conference. Big men. I watched the W&M and Hofstra game last night. Good guards/wings on both teams but neither team has anyone inside who is capable. The same could be said for UNCW. I know that the game has changed over the years but in the conference tournament where there are less possessions and more half court having a viable player to feed the ball into who is capable of making a move or a shot is not something that all of these teams have. Eatherton is the X factor for Northeastern and the Dukes with YoYo and even some of the things that Dimitre has done as a "Stretch 5" really have an edge over the other top 5 teams.

I agree that Northeastern has the best chance to win and that teams like W&M and Hofstra come and go with their shooting and hot shooting is very difficult to maintain for three straight games.

I like UNCW a ton and think Keatts is an obvious COY. They play really hard, the question there is whether they can play that hard for three straight games without tiring. I dont think they are the most talented team in the league, but they are teh one team I think can beat anyone regardless of style.

I'm not the Brady basher that Dukester and some others are, but I do think there is at least some truth/value to the record vs. RPIs below 150, and those above 150 and being able to coach the team up. Ive yet to see JMU come out confidently against any more highly rated team this year, save for the first half against Northeastern. I need to see that this team believes it can win against a slightly better opponent before thinking they have any chance to win in Baltimore. I'm also hoping for a 3 seed, however we get there.

(02-23-2015 06:51 AM)NJDuke97 Wrote:  One thing where I give the Dukes a good chance and why I see NE as the best team in conference. Big men. I watched the W&M and Hofstra game last night. Good guards/wings on both teams but neither team has anyone inside who is capable. The same could be said for UNCW. I know that the game has changed over the years but in the conference tournament where there are less possessions and more half court having a viable player to feed the ball into who is capable of making a move or a shot is not something that all of these teams have. Eatherton is the X factor for Northeastern and the Dukes with YoYo and even some of the things that Dimitre has done as a "Stretch 5" really have an edge over the other top 5 teams.

Great point, but guard play is even bigger during March, when every possession is so important. Our chances hinge on how Curry plays against NE, W&M, and UNCW, teams he's struggled against so far this year, and how McLean handles the pressure of a larger role in tournament play.

It looks like Saturday's game vs Hofstra is just a scrimmage to get ready for the real game against them in the CAA tournament. I hope that Brady puts more importance on preparing for the tournament game than winning the last regular season game. If he shows all of his tricks, then coach Mihalich will have a full week to gameplan against it and run through "what if" scenarios in practice.
Hofstra has superior athleticism and one of the highest scoring teams in the nation.
It would be nice to see Brady play them with straight man to man and very liberal substitution patterns on Saturday. If that results in a double digit loss, so be it. The final score is meaningless.

(02-26-2015 01:16 PM)Hart Foundation Wrote:  It looks like Saturday's game vs Hofstra is just a scrimmage to get ready for the real game against them in the CAA tournament. I hope that Brady puts more importance on preparing for the tournament game than winning the last regular season game. If he shows all of his tricks, then coach Mihalich will have a full week to gameplan against it and run through "what if" scenarios in practice.
Hofstra has superior athleticism and one of the highest scoring teams in the nation.
It would be nice to see Brady play them with straight man to man and very liberal substitution patterns on Saturday. If that results in a double digit loss, so be it. The final score is meaningless.

What tricks? Final score is meaningless? This team has a pattern of inconsistent play against quality opponents, therefore Brady and team should treat this game as if it's their last. Build a mentality of playing hard every night, including against difficult opponents instead of crapping the bed.

Plus I'd rather not see Lukic or Satkus on the floor for 3 minutes like at UNCW. Heck last night was the first time Lukic saw the floor in a month.

yep. The final score is meaningless unless you care what color uniform JMU wears against Hofstra in the first round.
The tricks would be mostly defensive. How does Brady disrupt Hofstra's potent offensive? Changing defensive sets every possession? Pulling out junk like a triangle and two? Having Satkus be a goon and foul Nichols and Gustys since they are both sub 50% FT shooters? Passive full court zone press to slow the game down and minimize shots?
We shouldn't see any of that Saturday. Save it for the elimination game.

I'm not endorsing laying down and not giving effort. Just let the players play hard in a no frills man to man.

For JMU's confidence, winning Saturday goes a long way. A 19-12, 12-6, record would also be a nice accomplishment for a team that's not particularly talented. Hopefully, JMU adds a player or two in the spring to the current contingent plus Kevin Roland and then next season looks bright. This team isn't good enough to win more than one game in the tourney I'm sorry to say and I'd be more than happy to be wrong about that.

REPOSTED IN THE 'CAA CONFERENCE TOURNAMENT SEEDING' THREAD

Just for what its worth. If NE loses on the road tonight (as 5 point faves) and on the road on Saturday (as 5 point faves) and JMU wins at home on Saturday (as 2 point dogs) then JMU would get the 3 seed and avoid Hofstra in the 4/5 game.

Based on expected vegas lines you could suggest that NE has a 31.25% chance of losing each of tonight and Saturday and JMU has about a 47% chance of winning on Saturday. This equates to just under 5% chance of JMU being a 3 seed.

After Northeastern easily wins tonight, JMU will definitely be in the 4/5 game against Hofstra and will be somewhere around a 5 point underdog. JMU lucking into the 3 seed would be huge as we would play either Delaware or Drexel and JMU would be favored over both.

(02-26-2015 02:12 PM)Hart Foundation Wrote:  yep. The final score is meaningless unless you care what color uniform JMU wears against Hofstra in the first round.
The tricks would be mostly defensive. How does Brady disrupt Hofstra's potent offensive? Changing defensive sets every possession? Pulling out junk like a triangle and two? Having Satkus be a goon and foul Nichols and Gustys since they are both sub 50% FT shooters? Passive full court zone press to slow the game down and minimize shots?
We shouldn't see any of that Saturday. Save it for the elimination game.

I'm not endorsing laying down and not giving effort. Just let the players play hard in a no frills man to man.

Interesting that you mention Satkus and Gustys together, because One Bid Wonders posted an article about both today. http://www.onebidwonders.com/2015/02/26/...riendship/

(02-26-2015 02:38 PM)Dukes84 Wrote:  For JMU's confidence, winning Saturday goes a long way. A 19-12, 12-6, record would also be a nice accomplishment for a team that's not particularly talented. Hopefully, JMU adds a player or two in the spring to the current contingent plus Kevin Roland and then next season looks bright. This team isn't good enough to win more than one game in the tourney I'm sorry to say and I'd be more than happy to be wrong about that.

Glad to hear that you have so much confidence in our team! You are probably one of those fans who will say I'm not going to the tournament BUT if we play in the Championship game I will be there.

(02-27-2015 09:30 AM)DUKES DUKES DUKES Wrote:  

(02-26-2015 02:38 PM)Dukes84 Wrote:  For JMU's confidence, winning Saturday goes a long way. A 19-12, 12-6, record would also be a nice accomplishment for a team that's not particularly talented. Hopefully, JMU adds a player or two in the spring to the current contingent plus Kevin Roland and then next season looks bright. This team isn't good enough to win more than one game in the tourney I'm sorry to say and I'd be more than happy to be wrong about that.

Glad to hear that you have so much confidence in our team! You are probably one of those fans who will say I'm not going to the tournament BUT if we play in the Championship game I will be there.

I might suggest that until you have matured some on this board, you might consider being careful who you address in the manner at which you have spoken to 84. Only a suggestion, but remember you were praised for your early representation of support for the Dukes, this gratitude can change quickly.

Man I want to see Brady and the team stick it to CAA and win conference! Especially with some of the disrespect we get from refs and scheduling. Curry needs to have a great game and get some revenge on the all CAA snub last year, he has earned a first team spot in my opinion and YOYO should be a 3rd team selection with mclean making rookie team. If a couple upsets go our way we could end up in championship game, we just gotta win that first one and then anything can happen.

(02-27-2015 10:29 AM)Jmubarkers Wrote:  Man I want to see Brady and the team stick it to CAA and win conference! Especially with some of the disrespect we get from refs and scheduling. Curry needs to have a great game and get some revenge on the all CAA snub last year, he has earned a first team spot in my opinion and YOYO should be a 3rd team selection with mclean making rookie team. If a couple upsets go our way we could end up in championship game, we just gotta win that first one and then anything can happen.

I say let's turn the Baltimore Arena into "Convo North" just like we did to the Coliseum two year ago. I've never been happier and more excited then that game against Northeastern just hearing the crowd gave me goosebumps. I know I will be there as long as JMU is and hopefully many many more will be too. Maybe as someone else mentioned on here the other day we can get JMU to spring for student buses for every day!! I'd pitch in some money to make it happen. This team like most thrives on the atmosphere, so us being there loud and proud will do wonders for their confidence.

Nothing like a weekend of Royal Farms Chicken and CAA basketball

(02-27-2015 12:13 PM)CISDuke2014 Wrote:  

(02-27-2015 10:29 AM)Jmubarkers Wrote:  Man I want to see Brady and the team stick it to CAA and win conference! Especially with some of the disrespect we get from refs and scheduling. Curry needs to have a great game and get some revenge on the all CAA snub last year, he has earned a first team spot in my opinion and YOYO should be a 3rd team selection with mclean making rookie team. If a couple upsets go our way we could end up in championship game, we just gotta win that first one and then anything can happen.

I say let's turn the Baltimore Arena into "Convo North" just like we did to the Coliseum two year ago. I've never been happier and more excited then that game against Northeastern just hearing the crowd gave me goosebumps. I know I will be there as long as JMU is and hopefully many many more will be too. Maybe as someone else mentioned on here the other day we can get JMU to spring for student buses for every day!! I'd pitch in some money to make it happen. This team like most thrives on the atmosphere, so us being there loud and proud will do wonders for their confidence.

When is spring break for JMU this year? You can definitely sponsor a bus as I know for a fact that alumni did that two years ago. It was roughly $900 a bus.

(02-27-2015 10:08 AM)BleedingPurple Wrote:  

(02-27-2015 09:30 AM)DUKES DUKES DUKES Wrote:  

(02-26-2015 02:38 PM)Dukes84 Wrote:  For JMU's confidence, winning Saturday goes a long way. A 19-12, 12-6, record would also be a nice accomplishment for a team that's not particularly talented. Hopefully, JMU adds a player or two in the spring to the current contingent plus Kevin Roland and then next season looks bright. This team isn't good enough to win more than one game in the tourney I'm sorry to say and I'd be more than happy to be wrong about that.

Glad to hear that you have so much confidence in our team! You are probably one of those fans who will say I'm not going to the tournament BUT if we play in the Championship game I will be there.

I might suggest that until you have matured some on this board, you might consider being careful who you address in the manner at which you have spoken to 84. Only a suggestion, but remember you were praised for your early representation of support for the Dukes, this gratitude can change quickly.

84 is a glass is half full optimistic Dukes fan so he has been incorrectly categorized here. He's just tempering his enthusiam and being pretty realistic.

(02-27-2015 01:41 PM)jmu98 Wrote:  

(02-27-2015 12:13 PM)CISDuke2014 Wrote:  

(02-27-2015 10:29 AM)Jmubarkers Wrote:  Man I want to see Brady and the team stick it to CAA and win conference! Especially with some of the disrespect we get from refs and scheduling. Curry needs to have a great game and get some revenge on the all CAA snub last year, he has earned a first team spot in my opinion and YOYO should be a 3rd team selection with mclean making rookie team. If a couple upsets go our way we could end up in championship game, we just gotta win that first one and then anything can happen.

I say let's turn the Baltimore Arena into "Convo North" just like we did to the Coliseum two year ago. I've never been happier and more excited then that game against Northeastern just hearing the crowd gave me goosebumps. I know I will be there as long as JMU is and hopefully many many more will be too. Maybe as someone else mentioned on here the other day we can get JMU to spring for student buses for every day!! I'd pitch in some money to make it happen. This team like most thrives on the atmosphere, so us being there loud and proud will do wonders for their confidence.

When is spring break for JMU this year? You can definitely sponsor a bus as I know for a fact that alumni did that two years ago. It was roughly $900 a bus.

Spring break is the 9th-13th so Championship Monday is the start of it, so that might kill the plan there at least for the title game. And while I am not poor, $900 is too rich for my pockets! I can kick in $50 if anyone wants to jump in with me.