2/23/2015
Cincy down a ways:

fs.ncaa.org/Docs/stats/MBB_RPI/MBBNG.pdf

That Non-Conference SOS of 20 is a big feather in our caps though. The committee has mentioned time and again how important that number is. Lets just take care of business and make it impossible to leave us out.

(02-24-2015 03:46 PM)BigDawg Wrote:  That Non-Conference SOS of 20 is a big feather in our caps though. The committee has mentioned time and again how important that number is. Lets just take care of business and make it impossible to leave us out.

This and UC's record against the RPI top 50 are big pluses that help out against many of about 15 teams above UC. UC is 4-4 against the RPI top 50. Here are some other teams ahead of them and their records:

Ohio State- 2-4
Texas- 1-9
Tulsa- 2-4
Temple- 2-7
Pitt- 2-6
Oregon- 2-5
Iona- 0-3
UCLA- 2-7

UC still has work to do, but is still in OK shape. RPI top 50 record and non conference SOS are really the two biggest indicators of who makes the tournament year after year.

(02-24-2015 03:52 PM)bearcatmark Wrote:  

(02-24-2015 03:46 PM)BigDawg Wrote:  That Non-Conference SOS of 20 is a big feather in our caps though. The committee has mentioned time and again how important that number is. Lets just take care of business and make it impossible to leave us out.

This and UC's record against the RPI top 50 are big pluses that help out against many of about 15 teams above UC. UC is 4-4 against the RPI top 50. Here are some other teams ahead of them and their records:

Ohio State- 2-4
Texas- 1-9
Tulsa- 2-4
Temple- 2-7
Pitt- 2-6
Oregon- 2-5
Iona- 0-3
UCLA- 2-7

UC still has work to do, but is still in OK shape. RPI top 50 record and non conference SOS are really the two biggest indicators of who makes the tournament year after year.

Great point. Plus NC State is at 52 and Tulsa is at 40, so they could wind up as top 50 wins as well. The other guys are pretty high up there and don't appear to be in danger of falling out. Being 3-1 against the top 25 helps as well and we may get a little pass on the VCU game since that is when Mick was declared out. Just take care of business Cats.

Honestly even if they finished 2-2 down the stretch and won a game in the conference tourney (Maybe even with a loss), their resume is strong enough they should still get in. But lets not take any chances and just win the rest of the regular season games. Heck, might as well win the conference tourney and win a title and make us a lock.

I feel almost exactly how I did in late February of 2006. Which is we have a nice resume but I think people could end up shocked if things do not play out correctly.

(02-24-2015 07:51 PM)rath v2.0 Wrote:  I feel almost exactly how I did in late February of 2006. Which is we have a nice resume but I think people could end up shocked if things do not play out correctly.

Anything less than 4-0 to finish their season and their goose is cooked.

Those losses to ECU and Tulane really hurt.

(02-24-2015 07:57 PM)Billy_Bearcat Wrote:  

(02-24-2015 07:51 PM)rath v2.0 Wrote:  I feel almost exactly how I did in late February of 2006. Which is we have a nice resume but I think people could end up shocked if things do not play out correctly.

Anything less than 4-0 to finish their season and their goose is cooked.

Not true at all.

(02-24-2015 08:25 PM)subflea Wrote:  

(02-24-2015 07:57 PM)Billy_Bearcat Wrote:  

(02-24-2015 07:51 PM)rath v2.0 Wrote:  I feel almost exactly how I did in late February of 2006. Which is we have a nice resume but I think people could end up shocked if things do not play out correctly.

Anything less than 4-0 to finish their season and their goose is cooked.

Not true at all.

Their RPI is 50. Best case scenario if they lose 1 would be to Tulsa (39). I don't see how beating #s 80, 185 and 209 help. If they beat Tulsa and lose to someone else that isn't any better as it would be another bad loss (Memphis is iffy).
21-10 in this conference ain't gonna cut it. They'd have to make the conference tourney finals.

(02-24-2015 09:52 PM)Billy_Bearcat Wrote:  

(02-24-2015 08:25 PM)subflea Wrote:  

(02-24-2015 07:57 PM)Billy_Bearcat Wrote:  

(02-24-2015 07:51 PM)rath v2.0 Wrote:  I feel almost exactly how I did in late February of 2006. Which is we have a nice resume but I think people could end up shocked if things do not play out correctly.

Anything less than 4-0 to finish their season and their goose is cooked.

Not true at all.

Their RPI is 50. Best case scenario if they lose 1 would be to Tulsa (39). I don't see how beating #s 80, 185 and 209 help. If they beat Tulsa and lose to someone else that isn't any better as it would be another bad loss (Memphis is iffy).
21-10 in this conference ain't gonna cut it. They'd have to make the conference tourney finals.

UC's issue isn't quality wins. Its bad losses and road record that is bringing UC down. 3-1 and a conference tournament win would probably put UC at lock status. 3-1 and a conference tournament loss would put the Cats on the bubble. Once again it would help if Temple fell apart in the last two weeks so UC could finish in 3rd place with a 3-1 finish. The American is probably going to have three lock bids and I would rather be the 3rd place team with a better RPI than Temple, UConn, and Memphis.

Nice to see some transparency. Fair analyses by Billy and bcatlaw above. Obviously I hope for a 4-0 finish and strong conference tourney showing. We're just over the bubble according to the experts. Hopefully we can avoid bad losses, at least.

It's so simplistic but at this point, just win. Others on the bubble will lose and fall back in the pecking order. Hopefully, UC has weathered the February slump that many teams experience and will be playing better basketball approaching the tournament. I'll bet the first ten minutes of tonight's game will give us a good indication if that's the case.

I'm ok with the home games, really worry about the two @ games.

(02-24-2015 09:52 PM)Billy_Bearcat Wrote:  

(02-24-2015 08:25 PM)subflea Wrote:  

(02-24-2015 07:57 PM)Billy_Bearcat Wrote:  

(02-24-2015 07:51 PM)rath v2.0 Wrote:  I feel almost exactly how I did in late February of 2006. Which is we have a nice resume but I think people could end up shocked if things do not play out correctly.

Anything less than 4-0 to finish their season and their goose is cooked.

Not true at all.

Their RPI is 50. Best case scenario if they lose 1 would be to Tulsa (39). I don't see how beating #s 80, 185 and 209 help. If they beat Tulsa and lose to someone else that isn't any better as it would be another bad loss (Memphis is iffy).
21-10 in this conference ain't gonna cut it. They'd have to make the conference tourney finals.

No they wouldn't. They are solidly in right now. They just can't afford another bad loss. They have enough good wins right now. If they were to finish 3-1 with the loss coming on the road to a top 50 RPI team, it wouldn't change a damn thing.

Little different look here. You have to arrow down to page 50!!

http://fs.ncaa.org/Docs/stats/MBB_RPI/MBBTeam.pdf

Bearcats also 3-1 vs. RPI top 25. Avoid bad losses to finish and I can't imagine them not getting in. Their non-conference SOS and their record against top 25 / top 50 teams is just so much stronger than almost everyone else on the bubble.

3-1 to finish and a 1st round loss in the AAC CT, I will pass on watching the selection show to save the gut wrenching. I think this is going to be a close shave.

I think they are in now but that does not factor in the tourney champs and late surges by teams that will undoubtedly snatch spots.

4 bids in this conference is going to be tough to swallow for the committee I fear.

I'd just as soon beat Tulsa. Tulsa is 2-4 against top 50 compared to UCs 5-4.

Also Tulsa has a bad loss to 181 rpi and also a loss to a D2 school. That has to be huge.

Like Rath Id rather avoid being #4 in this league. Make Tulsa the odd man out.

(02-25-2015 02:13 PM)rath v2.0 Wrote:  3-1 to finish and a 1st round loss in the AAC CT, I will pass on watching the selection show to save the gut wrenching. I think this is going to be a close shave.

I think they are in now but that does not factor in the tourney champs and late surges by teams that will undoubtedly snatch spots.

4 bids in this conference is going to be tough to swallow for the committee I fear.

Under that scenario UC is either playing in Dayton or Cincinnati on Tuesday or Wednesday. Pretty much agree with everything you said about four bids. Beating Tulsa or watching Temple fall apart would help.

(02-25-2015 02:13 PM)rath v2.0 Wrote:  3-1 to finish and a 1st round loss in the AAC CT, I will pass on watching the selection show to save the gut wrenching. I think this is going to be a close shave.

I think they are in now but that does not factor in the tourney champs and late surges by teams that will undoubtedly snatch spots.

4 bids in this conference is going to be tough to swallow for the committee I fear.

Especially when one of those bid snatchers is from the AAC.

*cough* UConn *cough cough*

I'm trying to put it out in the universe so that it actually doesn't happen. Maybe I'll put some money on them, that would just about guarantee a first round loss for them.