Went from #44 RPI before finals break to #20. Pretty amazing rise.

(05-11-2015 09:40 AM)grol Wrote:  Went from #44 RPI before finals break to #20. Pretty amazing rise.

It's why I pay no attention to Boyds' RPI needs report, even late in the season, as you cannot look at the results of one team in isolation. If I recall, as we entered break, the Boyds needs report pretty much concluded the highest we could reach would be the low-to-mid 30s in RPI.

(05-11-2015 09:55 AM)waltgreenberg Wrote:  

(05-11-2015 09:40 AM)grol Wrote:  Went from #44 RPI before finals break to #20. Pretty amazing rise.

It's why I pay no attention to Boyds' RPI needs report, even late in the season, as you cannot look at the results of one team in isolation. If I recall, as we entered break, the Boyds needs report pretty much concluded the highest we could reach would be the low-to-mid 30s in RPI.

?? The Boyd's RPI needs report forecast for Rice has been pretty accurate and consistent.

Since before the break, Boyd's RPI needs report has been very consistent in saying we had to win almost all of our remaining games to finish in the 17-32 range for RPI ranking and it has consistently reported that we cannot reach the Top 16. Since we have, in fact, not lost a single game in the last seven, our rise to #20 in RPI is pretty consistent with the RPI needs forecast.

According to the needs report, we still need to win two of our last four to finish in the Top 32 and it still says that we can't reach the Top 16. Given that our final three games are against FIU at home, I'm confident that this forecast is also pretty accurate. I doubt that we would crack the Top 16 by winning our final four games. (Although I certainly hope we get a chance to find out.)

If we win out and also sweep the CUSA tournament, we might crack the Top 16, but the needs report does not include conference tournament games.

(05-11-2015 09:55 AM)waltgreenberg Wrote:  

(05-11-2015 09:40 AM)grol Wrote:  Went from #44 RPI before finals break to #20. Pretty amazing rise.

It's why I pay no attention to Boyds' RPI needs report, even late in the season, as you cannot look at the results of one team in isolation. If I recall, as we entered break, the Boyds needs report pretty much concluded the highest we could reach would be the low-to-mid 30s in RPI.

temchugh's response was spot on. But Walt, let me add one more point -- your recollection is most definitely incorrect that the Needs Report "concluded the highest we could reach was would be the low-to-mid 30's".

The Needs Report simply states that we can make top 32 but can't make top 16. It gives no more detail than that, and never has.

(05-11-2015 09:55 AM)waltgreenberg Wrote:  

(05-11-2015 09:40 AM)grol Wrote:  Went from #44 RPI before finals break to #20. Pretty amazing rise.

It's why I pay no attention to Boyds' RPI needs report, even late in the season, as you cannot look at the results of one team in isolation. If I recall, as we entered break, the Boyds needs report pretty much concluded the highest we could reach would be the low-to-mid 30s in RPI.

(05-11-2015 10:17 AM)temchugh Wrote:  Since before the break, Boyd's RPI needs report has been very consistent in saying we had to win almost all of our remaining games to finish in the 17-32 range for RPI ranking and it has consistently reported that we cannot reach the Top 16. Since we have, in fact, not lost a single game in the last seven, our rise to #20 in RPI is pretty consistent with the RPI needs forecast.
According to the needs report, we still need to win two of our last four to finish in the Top 32 and it still says that we can't reach the Top 16. Given that our final three games are against FIU at home, I'm confident that this forecast is also pretty accurate. I doubt that we would crack the Top 16 by winning our final four games. (Although I certainly hope we get a chance to find out.)

(05-11-2015 01:18 PM)JOwl Wrote:  The Needs Report simply states that we can make top 32 but can't make top 16. It gives no more detail than that, and never has.

Remember, all things are relative. The Needs Report can only forecast the RPI impact of how Rice plays its games, not how the top-16 does in theirs. I think Rice (and probably a number of other teams) consistently outperforms the late-season needs reports because there tend to be top teams that don't continue to win in the late season. If Boyd modified his report to say "Rice needs to win 3 of 4 and have at least four teams tank in the final week of the season to reach the top-16", then folks may be happier with it, but the needs report is a bit more simplistic than that. It is an interesting report because it is predictive in the affect on absolute RPI value for the final weeks of the season, but it does not accurately predict the relative RPI (it probably could, with tweaks like using the predictive nature of the ISR to predict outcomes from the top-32 teams' remaining schedules, and the resulting benchmark to make the final top 8/16 RPI).

(05-12-2015 12:42 PM)I45owl Wrote:  

(05-11-2015 09:55 AM)waltgreenberg Wrote:  

(05-11-2015 09:40 AM)grol Wrote:  Went from #44 RPI before finals break to #20. Pretty amazing rise.

It's why I pay no attention to Boyds' RPI needs report, even late in the season, as you cannot look at the results of one team in isolation. If I recall, as we entered break, the Boyds needs report pretty much concluded the highest we could reach would be the low-to-mid 30s in RPI.

(05-11-2015 10:17 AM)temchugh Wrote:  Since before the break, Boyd's RPI needs report has been very consistent in saying we had to win almost all of our remaining games to finish in the 17-32 range for RPI ranking and it has consistently reported that we cannot reach the Top 16. Since we have, in fact, not lost a single game in the last seven, our rise to #20 in RPI is pretty consistent with the RPI needs forecast.
According to the needs report, we still need to win two of our last four to finish in the Top 32 and it still says that we can't reach the Top 16. Given that our final three games are against FIU at home, I'm confident that this forecast is also pretty accurate. I doubt that we would crack the Top 16 by winning our final four games. (Although I certainly hope we get a chance to find out.)

(05-11-2015 01:18 PM)JOwl Wrote:  The Needs Report simply states that we can make top 32 but can't make top 16. It gives no more detail than that, and never has.

Remember, all things are relative. The Needs Report can only forecast the RPI impact of how Rice plays its games, not how the top-16 does in theirs. I think Rice (and probably a number of other teams) consistently outperforms the late-season needs reports because there tend to be top teams that don't continue to win in the late season. If Boyd modified his report to say "Rice needs to win 3 of 4 and have at least four teams tank in the final week of the season to reach the top-16", then folks may be happier with it, but the needs report is a bit more simplistic than that. It is an interesting report because it is predictive in the affect on absolute RPI value for the final weeks of the season, but it does not accurately predict the relative RPI (it probably could, with tweaks like using the predictive nature of the ISR to predict outcomes from the top-32 teams' remaining schedules, and the resulting benchmark to make the final top 8/16 RPI).

My point precisely.

Oh well; told you so three months ago............