Several years ago, I was at a business conference where Lou Holtz was the featured speaker. In a off line conversation we had, he was most critical of the star recruiting rating system. He said the star system was virtually worthless. In support of his position he cited the following:

He said that in any given year, on average, of the 100 top high school football recruits in the State of Texas, fully 50% of that 100 will never earn a college varsity letter in football. And virtually all of that 50% were either rated either three or four stars.

Just want everyone to keep that in mind over the next several days as we all start raving over how many three and/or four star recruits our respective schools have signed.

Let the raving start!!!

So what's prompting you to post this?

(02-03-2015 05:15 PM)ECUHOO Wrote:  He said that in any given year, on average, of the 100 top high school football recruits in the State of Texas, fully 50% of that 100 will never earn a college varsity letter in football. And virtually all of that 50% were either rated either three or four stars.

He might be mistaken (been awhile since he was a head coach).

State of Texas has, on average, had approx 360 HS players a year sign Div I-A Scholarships.

While most programs conclude that you need to play in one game to earn a Varsity Letter, I think most of the Top 100 TX players that sign do make it into a Div I game.

(02-03-2015 05:18 PM)Knightsweat Wrote:  So what's prompting you to post this?

Who knows. Nearly every ECU commit is a 3 star or higher.

(02-03-2015 05:18 PM)Knightsweat Wrote:  So what's prompting you to post this?

Tomorrow is, as you know, NSD and it is important to put into perspective how much of a crap shoot it is screening and signing high school kids to National Letters. And while it is an interesting and fun exercise, people need to put the process into, as I said, perspective.

(02-03-2015 05:18 PM)Knightsweat Wrote:  So what's prompting you to post this?

Lou Holtz is still alive? He was old even when pacing the sidelines of SWC games.

As someone already mentioned, around 300 Texas players will commit to a FBS school. Of the Top 100 in TEXAS, all will be playing somewhere next year, unless sidelined by grades, law enforcement, or injury. I can't imagine any Texas Top 100 player being rated less than a 3 star recruit. Here is 247's Texas list through 213, and the vast majority have committed to a major university. Will they letter - well I would dispute his 50% figure, but sure out of 100 there will be injuries, academic challenges, playing time issues/transfers, legal issues etc. -- Just noticed that the 247 list does include some JUCOs, but the majority are HS recruits.

Quote:on average, of the 100 top high school football recruits in the State of Texas, fully 50% of that 100 will never earn a college varsity letter in football. And virtually all of that 50% were either rated either three or four stars.

This sounds like Lou Holtz-speak, because I have no clue what his second point even means. Certainly the top 100 in TEXAS would be 3 star or better - without question. Setting aside all other factors - legal, grades, injuries, I would say maybe 15% tops don't earn a letter. The Top 100 in Texas is a pretty stout collection of players these days. Texas led the nation in football, with 165,359 student athletes playing football at 1,061 high schools—for an average of 156 football players per high school. Imagine only 5 starters on average were seniors and wanted to play at the next level (6-man and smaller districts will pull the numbers down along with other factors), that's over 5,000 potential recruits a year. The Top 100 from that field is going to be pretty decent. And the rating services will be much more accurate at the top of the quality spectrum.

Just for giggles, here is the list of just the Dallas/Fort Worth Top 100 from the Dallas Morning News. Note that virtually every player is committed, or considering multiple offers.

There are enough challenges with recruiting rankings not to imagine new ones. In a state like Texas, and in the large metro areas, they do a decent job. In the less populated states, and more remote areas, not so much.

(02-03-2015 07:53 PM)Kandy Atz Wrote:  Lou Holtz is still alive? He was old even when pacing the sidelines of SWC games.

As someone already mentioned, around 300 Texas players will commit to a FBS school. Of the Top 100 in TEXAS, all will be playing somewhere next year, unless sidelined by grades, law enforcement, or injury. I can't imagine any Texas Top 100 player being rated less than a 3 star recruit. Here is 247's Texas list through 213, and the vast majority have committed to a major university. Will they letter - well I would dispute his 50% figure, but sure out of 100 there will be injuries, academic challenges, playing time issues/transfers, legal issues etc. -- Just noticed that the 247 list does include some JUCOs, but the majority are HS recruits.

Quote:on average, of the 100 top high school football recruits in the State of Texas, fully 50% of that 100 will never earn a college varsity letter in football. And virtually all of that 50% were either rated either three or four stars.

This sounds like Lou Holtz-speak, because I have no clue what his second point even means. Certainly the top 100 in TEXAS would be 3 star or better - without question. Setting aside all other factors - legal, grades, injuries, I would say maybe 15% tops don't earn a letter. The Top 100 in Texas is a pretty stout collection of players these days. Texas led the nation in football, with 165,359 student athletes playing football at 1,061 high schools—for an average of 156 football players per high school. Imagine only 5 starters on average were seniors and wanted to play at the next level (6-man and smaller districts will pull the numbers down along with other factors), that's over 5,000 potential recruits a year. The Top 100 from that field is going to be pretty decent. And the rating services will be much more accurate at the top of the quality spectrum.

Just for giggles, here is the list of just the Dallas/Fort Worth Top 100 from the Dallas Morning News. Note that virtually every player is committed, or considering multiple offers.

There are enough challenges with recruiting rankings not to imagine new ones. In a state like Texas, and in the large metro areas, they do a decent job. In the less populated states, and more remote areas, not so much.

(02-03-2015 05:18 PM)Knightsweat Wrote:  So what's prompting you to post this?

Tomorrow is, as you know, NSD and it is important to put into perspective how much of a crap shoot it is screening and signing high school kids to National Letters. And while it is an interesting and fun exercise, people need to put the process into, as I said, perspective.

As much as I hate it, the star system does matter; it's just not the end-all-be-all that people make it out to be.

Recruiting is a speculation business. The stars show you the best homerun deals (Jadaveon Clowney) but they can't predict that his latter career is going to be shot by injuries.

FWIW I think the industry surrounding recruiting is pretty strange.

Do you know how many former 5* recruits played in the Super Bowl this past weekend? Zero.

(02-04-2015 08:18 AM)SteveUCF19 Wrote:  Do you know how many former 5* recruits played in the Super Bowl this past weekend? Zero.

What about the winners of college national championship?

(02-04-2015 08:18 AM)SteveUCF19 Wrote:  Do you know how many former 5* recruits played in the Super Bowl this past weekend? Zero.

Don't think New England Patriot Fans/Coaches/Players cared much about how 17-18 yr old kids were "ranked" by 20 something pimple faced geeks.

College Coaches are paid to recruit/develop and WIN with recruits....and if a few of them go on to play in the NFL, great...but the priority is to have them play in your college system to hopefully win games.

Alabam, FSU, Oregon, and Ohio state sure had some 5* recruits playing during the playoff. The stars do matter

A Stick will kill you as dead as an AK-47, and in some cases may even be better then the AK, but no one picks a stick over an AK to fight a war with...

Individually stars dont matter, but when your dealing with groups... a team full of 5*'s is more often then not going to beat a team of 4*'s

5 star - top 30 players in nation
4 star - top 250-300 in nation
3 star - top 750 in nation
2 star or less - 750+

The limited numbers of 5 stars would greatly reduce the odds of them filling any NFL roster. Based on numbers alone, 3 star should be the average rating of an NFL player. Nobody is arguing that a sleeper, might enter college as a walk-on, put on 80 lbs of muscle, and get drafted in the 3rd round and end up in the Hall of Fame. However, the odds of success are much greater the higher the ranking of the player. Here is an interesting article on the subject - Year-by-year look at five-star college football recruits

With 125 FBS schools and only 325 or so 4 & 5 star players, that is less than 2.5 per school - obviously the big schools will monopolize these athletes. So let's assume 13 players each for the top 25 teams if distributed equally. That leaves only 3 & 2 star, as well as unrated players for the other 100 schools. That is where your staff's ability to evaluate talent and project player ability to the next level becomes critical. To me that is the most difficult part of college coaching - evaluating the athletic potential of a 17 or 18 year old. Have they peaked? Still growing? Motivated? Coachable? Team player? Will they go to class, stay out of trouble, and not party 24/7? I know what I was like at 18.