Palm: UC could be in play for Nos. 4-5 NCAA seed
Tom Groeschen, tgroeschen@enquirer.com 11:13 a.m. EST January 25, 2015


Octavius Ellis and the Bearcats could contend for a high NCAA tournament seed, CBSSports.com bracketologist Jerry Palm says. (Photo: USA Today Sports/Aaron Doster)

The Cincinnati Bearcats are projected as a No. 9 seed for the 2015 NCAA men's basketball tournament but could rise to the Nos. 4-5 level, according to CBSSports.com bracketologist Jerry Palm.

Palm attended Saturday's Xavier-DePaul game, and Enquirer reporter Shannon Russell asked Palm about the NCAA tournament outlook for both XU and UC.

Palm on UC, which is No. 30 in Palm's RPI and 13-5 (4-2 American Athletic Conference) heading into Sunday's 2 p.m. game at UCF (9-9, 2-5 AAC):

"They've got some nice wins, especially outside the league. They beat San Diego State, who's probably going to win the Mountain West. They won at North Carolina State, which is like the ultimate home court hero.

"Duke didn't win at North Carolina State but Cincinnati did. So those are big wins. The losses – I mean, Nebraska is not that great. Memphis is not that great. But those are road games.

"If this team can beat the teams that it should and avoid the really bad losses, they're playing for an upper-half-of-the-bracket kind of a seed. If they're competitive near the top of the American this year, which they look like they're capable of that, then they've got the chance to be in the four or five range type of seed. Beyond that it's probably out of reach.

"They didn't get the big enough wins outside the league, and there aren't big enough wins inside the league to really do that. But they could be in the four or five range, especially if they win the league regular season."

Heading into Sunday, UC (4-2 AAC) stood third in the league behind Tulsa (7-0) and SMU (7-1). SMU's one league loss was to UC.

http://www.cincinnati.com/story/sports/c...autologin=

I am hoping for a 6 seed. I don't think a 4 or 5 is realistic unless we lose 2 games or less the rest of the way, which I don't see happening. Once you get down to the 7 seed, you're basically looking at a 50-50 first round matchup.

4 or 5 to me would mean sweeping the regular season and AAC tourney. That's possible, but the margin for error there is pretty thin. We'll know more after these next 2 Thursdays. If we lose both, we are still likely a tourney team, but won't be looking at a great seed (8-9-10 can be pretty bad just for r32 reasons). If we can at least split, we can hold our ground and solidify the at large bid. Winning both and we can start talking about a good seed.

Also, Tulsa's conference record is starting to annoy me. It probably won't affect our resume greatly if we don't win the conference regular season, but things like that can come into play for seeding.

I'm with Robert though. The most likely scenario is we pick up another good win or 2 along the way, but land more in the 6-7 range. To be honest, I'd be pretty satisfied with that for this season. If we went on to win a tourney game, even more so. We should be even better next year and I'm starting to think our program is back to where even the seasons where we replace everyone still are tourney teams who can win 1 or 2. That's a pretty high floor for any program.

(01-26-2015 08:25 AM)uccheese Wrote:  4 or 5 to me would mean sweeping the regular season and AAC tourney. That's possible, but the margin for error there is pretty thin. We'll know more after these next 2 Thursdays.

Hope they can clear that 3 feet of snow from the Hartford airport in good time so UConn can get here. Luckily the game isn't til Thursday.

But yeah...going into this season I thought this was a borderline NCAA/NIT team. Just the fact we are talking about a 4 or 5 seed if everything goes our way is great. I'm pleased with the development of this team so far.

(01-26-2015 08:25 AM)uccheese Wrote:  4 or 5 to me would mean sweeping the regular season and AAC tourney. That's possible, but the margin for error there is pretty thin. We'll know more after these next 2 Thursdays. If we lose both, we are still likely a tourney team, but won't be looking at a great seed (8-9-10 can be pretty bad just for r32 reasons). If we can at least split, we can hold our ground and solidify the at large bid. Winning both and we can start talking about a good seed.

Also, Tulsa's conference record is starting to annoy me. It probably won't affect our resume greatly if we don't win the conference regular season, but things like that can come into play for seeding.

I'm with Robert though. The most likely scenario is we pick up another good win or 2 along the way, but land more in the 6-7 range. To be honest, I'd be pretty satisfied with that for this season. If we went on to win a tourney game, even more so. We should be even better next year and I'm starting to think our program is back to where even the seasons where we replace everyone still are tourney teams who can win 1 or 2. That's a pretty high floor for any program.

I think Tulsa is a good team, but they have had the benefit of an easy first half in the AAC. They got UConn and Memphis at home, Temple lost Cummings in their game (and subsequently blew a double-digit lead), and they haven't had to play SMU or Cincy yet. They will compete for the regular-season title, but they have some losses left on the schedule.

Just stay away from an 8/9 seed. I almost feel like a 10 is better than an 8/9. I think 6/7 is realistic.

AAC basketball stumbled out of the gate this season with some terrible non-conference losses. It's really a shame because the quality of play for the top half of the league is very competitive right now and there could be at least a couple of teams ranked at this point if not for poor December performances. I feel UCONN will take care of business against the bottom half of this league and hang tough in the race. My hope is that UC can do the same, starting with a signature win this Thursday night over the national champs.

I'm not one who believes it a necessity for a P5 invite, but it would be exciting for our fans to see the Bearcats atop the AAC when either the regular season or conference tourney ends.

I don't care about seed at all, just getting in this year would be very impressive to me. Our head coach is not even coaching games. If they still get into the tourney that would say a ton about the program Mick has built here. However, it is still very early with plenty of potential stumbling blocks. I'll be shocked if there is not at least one bad loss this year.

UC must still play @SMU, @ Temple, @ Tulane, @ Tulsa, UCONN, X and Memphis. These could all be losses or they may win a few, but this team just struggled to beat a bad UCF team, whose leading scorer missed most of the game and their big center did not play in 2nd half. While I very much would like to be optimistic, I think a ten seed is realistic and I would be ok with that, as young and inexperienced as this team was to start the year.

(01-26-2015 08:51 AM)jarr Wrote:  Just stay away from an 8/9 seed. I almost feel like a 10 is better than an 8/9. I think 6/7 is realistic.

I concur. Historically speaking that 8/9 matchup actually slightly favors the #9. The #8/9 has rarely defeated the #1 in the next round. A couple of interesting nuggets I point off the net from a gambling site:

The #1 seed is 50-10 against #8 seeds 60-5 against #9 seeds.

The #2 seed is 50-17 against the #7 seed and 29-17 against the #10 seed.

The #3 seed is 39-28 against the #6 seed.

The #6 seed is 79-41 over the #11 seed.

The #7 seed is 73-41 against the #10 seed.

The #8 seed is 59-61 against #9 seeds.

(01-26-2015 09:22 AM)CincyBro Wrote:  UC must still play @SMU, @ Temple, @ Tulane, @ Tulsa, UCONN, X and Memphis. These could all be losses or they may win a few, but this team just struggled to beat a bad UCF team, whose leading scorer missed most of the game and their big center did not play in 2nd half. While I very much would like to be optimistic, I think a ten seed is realistic and I would be ok with that, as young and inexperienced as this team was to start the year.

This ^^^^

Those are some tough road games coming up for this young team. I can't say with any confidence that they will beat XU at home, but I think they beat UCONN and Memphis. But I'm with Beercat, I will be satisfied with them just making it in this year with this roster and Mick's health issues.

For all the bashing we've done about the schedule the past few years, whoever made the schedule this year was genius. That RPI ranking (so far) is great.

Cat-Man, I concur about UC beating UCONN and Memphis @ home. Don't really follow them, but is it true that X hasn't won a true road game yet? If so, let's hope the Shootout doesn't break that streak.

My guess is that the pre-conference scheduling was both lucky and good. It's certainly helped set the table for an NCAA bid if UC continues to play well. While UC has some tough road games ahead, so do the other contenders so winning the rest @ home and stealing a couple more on the road will take care of business.

I worry about the X game. X is way better than Houston and UCF and both of those games were nailbiters until the end.

(01-26-2015 10:50 AM)rath v2.0 Wrote:  I worry about the X game. X is way better than Houston and UCF and both of those games were nailbiters until the end.

Yep. Thirty four seconds of outstanding defense means nothing when some unlikely hero for X starts dropping threes from way beyond the arc. If bad things can happen in any game they always will in that one. Somehow though I think the 'Cats will be ready for them next month; 5th/3rd will be an incredible sixth man.

(01-26-2015 10:50 AM)rath v2.0 Wrote:  I worry about the X game. X is way better than Houston and UCF and both of those games were nailbiters until the end.

UC should have a crazy crowd for the Xavier game. Houston and UCF have poor records but they are not as "bad" as people think they are. Houston has a good starting five but no depth. They tend to stay in games but fold in the last five to ten minutes of the game. Cougars also have a couple of close losses to decent teams too. UCF on other hand has the physical ability to match up with upper level teams due to their size and athletes. What they lack is defense and winning experience. In major college basketball (the top 11 conferences in the nation) the middle tier and bottom teams in those conference usually have enough players to pull an upset and to keep games competitive.

(01-26-2015 09:40 AM)CliftonAve Wrote:  

(01-26-2015 08:51 AM)jarr Wrote:  Just stay away from an 8/9 seed. I almost feel like a 10 is better than an 8/9. I think 6/7 is realistic.

I concur. Historically speaking that 8/9 matchup actually slightly favors the #9. The #8/9 has rarely defeated the #1 in the next round. A couple of interesting nuggets I point off the net from a gambling site:

The #1 seed is 50-10 against #8 seeds 60-5 against #9 seeds.

The #2 seed is 50-17 against the #7 seed and 29-17 against the #10 seed.

The #3 seed is 39-28 against the #6 seed.

The #6 seed is 79-41 over the #11 seed.

The #7 seed is 73-41 against the #10 seed.

The #8 seed is 59-61 against #9 seeds.

Wonder what the deal is with the 2/10 seed?

(01-26-2015 10:57 AM)indycat Wrote:  

(01-26-2015 10:50 AM)rath v2.0 Wrote:  I worry about the X game. X is way better than Houston and UCF and both of those games were nailbiters until the end.

Yep. Thirty four seconds of outstanding defense means nothing when some unlikely hero for X starts dropping threes from way beyond the arc. If bad things can happen in any game they always will in that one. Somehow though I think the 'Cats will be ready for them next month; 5th/3rd will be an incredible sixth man.

Kind of like when they hit 11 three pointers in last years game? Yeah, they abused UC outside AND inside (Martin had 17 points. Stainbrook had 10 rebounds). I don't see that happening again. UC also went 10 minutes without a FG last year. Luckily XU struggles on defense this year. So hopefully UC finds some sort of offense by then. XU is also young. Thus the reason for their road struggles. Hopefully the 5/3 crowd rattles them.

Worry away. But UCFs leading scorer had all but 2 points in whole first half. He got hurt at end of first half. Road wins aren't always easy. Stop discounting yesterday. Did UC play it's best? no. Did they win. Yep.

Ask Xavier how the road is.

Close road games all weekend in AAC.

I like UC at home vs Uconn and also against Eggsavier.

(01-26-2015 09:22 AM)CincyBro Wrote:  this team just struggled to beat a bad UCF team

As did every other team in the top half of the league except Memphis. They are not good, but they made UConn, Temple, SMU, and Tulsa (in Tulsa) work to beat them.

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(01-26-2015 12:41 PM)subflea Wrote:  

(01-26-2015 09:22 AM)CincyBro Wrote:  this team just struggled to beat a bad UCF team

As did every other team in the top half of the league except Memphis. They are not good, but they made UConn, Temple, SMU, and Tulsa (in Tulsa) work to beat them.

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Understand, but people talking about 4,5 or 6 seed are assuming we win all these games, I'm just pointing out how tough the schedule still is.