(01-26-2015 05:11 PM)mlb Wrote:  

(01-26-2015 05:01 PM)Overrated Wrote:  Yeah, UD has really played a murderous schedule and is really killing it. Sorry, that is a ridiculous opinion.

They have 3 losses, 2 on the road (@Arkansas, @Davidson) and 1 on a neutral court (Connecticut).

They beat:

Texas A&M
BC
Georgia Tech
Ole Miss

UC lost to Ole Miss, granted UD played them at home and UC played them on a neutral court.

UD has VCU coming up on the schedule, I highly doubt they lose by 25 to them like UC did (granted, UC had extenuating circumstances due to Cronin's health issues).

They run a MUCH better offense than UC, and their defense is pretty good (not as good as UC). Most importantly, they can actually SHOOT the ball, something UC has not done most of the season.

There is a reason why Dayton was ranked last week (but they lost @Davidson).

They play a schedule that ranks around 135th (ESPN RPI) depending on who you look at. KenPom has them at 143rd in that regard. They better have only a few losses.

They just got blasted on the road at Davidson. The same happened when they played at Arkansas. They don't have a win nearly as good as UC's win at NC State or SMU.

And just because they were ranked really means little. They were ranked having played an incredibly easy schedule, went on the road and got waxed and now they aren't ranked.

They shoot better (mostly from 3, UC is a good 2 pt shooting team) than UC, but they are a terrible offensive rebounding team while UC is a really good offensive rebounding team. That affects how good you are on offense.

Ultimately, Dayton is a mediocre offense, just like UC. There is more to the game than just shooting. A lot more quite frankly.

For comparison's sake, Kenpom says UC has been very very slightly better than UD on offense over the course of the year (79th Nationally in adjusted offense as opposed to 82nd for UD).

In all honesty that's pretty equal. UC was pretty bad offensively against UCF which dropped them a number of spots.

(01-26-2015 04:50 PM)CincyBro Wrote:  

(01-26-2015 02:24 PM)dave416 Wrote:  RPI is a mostly poor tool and its a shame it is still plays any role in the process - wish they quoted kenpom more often.

They still have plenty of work to do to get in because of the AAC's collective non-conference failures. Fair or unfair, that kind of determines a league's reputation going into conference play. So outside of SMU, UConn, Xavier, and to a lesser extent Tulsa (mostly due to their 7-0 start), any loss will come off as mediocre/bad one and any win seen as just a notch in the win column. Love the progress for this young team so far, but I think the reality is that they are closer to not being in than they are to a 4-5 seed right now.

Kenpom is no better--- Northern Iowa is 19, Ohio state is 20, Xavier is 24, SDSU is 26. Cincy is 32 which should translate to receiving some votes in the polls. Dayton who is 40, they got 28 votes . But to receive no votes, just think the Bearcats are getting the ass around the country. Not saying top 10 or top 20, but should have some votes.

What's wrong with these rankings? I don't think you can definitively say any of these teams are better than the other. KenPom is simply based on the numbers - your pace, and adjusted offensive and defensive efficiency, so the rankings are simply based on that (also in relation to his preseason ranking). KP isn't perfect (no ranking system is, obviously), but in general is far superior to the RPI/AP/Coaches because is actually based on something concrete.

The AP/Coaches poll only matters in terms of visibility. Unfortunately visibility is very important for the program, but IMO the AP/Coaches rankings are/should be meaningless in ultimately judging a team and hopefully are completely ignored by the committee. You keep winning, regardless of opponent, you will move up the polls. You lose, almost regardless of the opponent, you move down. That's really it. It explains why Old Dominion (I think they were 14-1 at the time) briefly cracked the top 25. ODU is a nice team, but I don't think you'd find anyone who pays close attention to college hoops that would put them in the top 25 teams in the country. The AP/Coaches poll are the last place you should look for an accurate ranking of teams. They are for visibility, the fairweather fan, and they give people something to argue about.

The only losses which I am completely ticked about so far, are Nebraska and Memphis.

We had Nebraska beat, but we bailed them out, time and time again, with stupid fouls. Wish I hadn't read this thing, because I had NU erased from my mind. But, NOW IT'S BACK

And, even though I feared that talented Memphis could possibly rise up and bite us (read my posts before the game), all of our stupid, unforced turnovers (including the repeated, ridiculous travelling violations) were the difference. That, and an important player who could not bite his tongue and control his temper when the chips were down.

Ole Miss - Moody played a ridiculous game and they would have beaten almost anyone.

VCU - Complete non-entity to me.

UConn - They always start rough, with their tough schedules. Losing in Hartford is never a shame IMO.

http://www.rpiforecast.com/teams/Cincinnati.html


Through games of Jan 26, 2015.

Cincinnati
Conference: Amer
Expected RPI: 27.8
Current RPI: 27
Expected SOS: 46
Current SOS: 34
Current Record: 14-5
Expected Record: 23-8
Current Conf Record: 5-2
Expected Conf Record: 13-5
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25: 2-2
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50: 2-2
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100: 4-3
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200: 6-1
Expected Record vs RPI 200+: 8-0
Current OOC Record: 9-3
Expected OOC Record: 10-3
Expected OOC RPI: 29
Expected OOC SOS: 8


RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD
Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final Record Expected RPI Probability
26-5 12.2 1.15%
25-6 14.9 6.59%
24-7 18.7 19.01%
23-8 24.1 27.14%
22-9 30.3 25.03%
21-10 38.3 13.83%
20-11 48.0 5.60%
19-12 61.0 1.38%
18-13 75.4 0.22%
17-14 93.2 0.04%

(01-26-2015 05:19 PM)Overrated Wrote:  They play a schedule that ranks around 135th (ESPN RPI) depending on who you look at. KenPom has them at 143rd in that regard. They better have only a few losses.

UC's may be rated higher, but lets be honest. The top of the A10 this year is not much different than the top of the AAC, and the bottom of both leagues are similar as well.

Quote:They just got blasted on the road at Davidson. The same happened when they played at Arkansas. They don't have a win nearly as good as UC's win at NC State or SMU.

Davidson and Arkansas are both very good teams this year. Both will be in the tourney. Nothing to drag Dayton down with. I agree that @ NC State was a good win, and SMU is good although they were still injured at the time.

Quote:And just because they were ranked really means little. They were ranked having played an incredibly easy schedule, went on the road and got waxed and now they aren't ranked.

They shoot better (mostly from 3, UC is a good 2 pt shooting team) than UC, but they are a terrible offensive rebounding team while UC is a really good offensive rebounding team. That affects how good you are on offense.

Ultimately, Dayton is a mediocre offense, just like UC. There is more to the game than just shooting. A lot more quite frankly.

We'll see what happens. I think they have a better coach (not a shot at Cronin, I just think Archie Miller is a better all around coach, thought the same thing about Brownell at Clemson when he was Wright State's coach), they have a better shooting team, and a comparable (but not quite as good) defensive team. Their depth is depleted after kicking their 2 big guys off the team last month, but they seem to be getting the job done as a whole still. They also are coming off an elite 8 run, something UC hasn't done in 20 years.

(01-27-2015 10:29 AM)mlb Wrote:  

(01-26-2015 05:19 PM)Overrated Wrote:  They play a schedule that ranks around 135th (ESPN RPI) depending on who you look at. KenPom has them at 143rd in that regard. They better have only a few losses.

UC's may be rated higher, but lets be honest. The top of the A10 this year is not much different than the top of the AAC, and the bottom of both leagues are similar as well.

The AAC may be similar to the A10, but of Dayton's 19 games played so far, 12 have have been OOC. Their out of conference schedule was really weak. They have few quality wins, none of which are on the road.

Also interesting you think Brownell is better than Mick, because there is very little in the way of results that could support that belief. Jury is still out on Archie in my opinion but he is obviously off to a good (albeit lucky) start. That opinion would be laughed at if Dayton didn't win 2 one possession games to start last years tournament and then draw a 10 seed in the sweet 16. Deciding who is a better coach based off 3 games doesn't seem particularly smart.

Quote:We'll see what happens. I think they have a better coach (not a shot at Cronin, I just think Archie Miller is a better all around coach, thought the same thing about Brownell at Clemson when he was Wright State's coach), they have a better shooting team, and a comparable (but not quite as good) defensive team. Their depth is depleted after kicking their 2 big guys off the team last month, but they seem to be getting the job done as a whole still. They also are coming off an elite 8 run, something UC hasn't done in 20 years.

Archie Miller should be up for coach of the year for how Dayton has performed with a depleted roster

I think it's a little early to anoint him as a top coach.

Dayton underperformed in his first 2 seasons and started slow last year before getting hot in the tournament. Had Dayton's bubble bursted and been left out Archie's seat would have been very warm

Bilas' top 68 rankings are updated. A few teams of note:
15. OSU
23. WVU
26. XU
27. UD
40. UC
41. SMU
46. TULSA
53. UCONN

(01-28-2015 06:14 PM)Bearhawkeye Wrote:  Bilas' top 68 rankings are updated. A few teams of note:
15. OSU
23. WVU
26. XU
27. UD
40. UC
41. SMU
46. TULSA
53. UCONN

It's nice of Bilas to put Oklahoma St at 15....and not list tosu, because
they SUCK

(01-28-2015 06:14 PM)Bearhawkeye Wrote:  Bilas' top 68 rankings are updated. A few teams of note:
15. OSU
23. WVU
26. XU
27. UD
40. UC
41. SMU
46. TULSA
53. UCONN

A win over Indiana and they say they are world beaters.

(01-28-2015 06:14 PM)Bearhawkeye Wrote:  Bilas' top 68 rankings are updated. A few teams of note:
15. OSU
23. WVU
26. XU
27. UD
40. UC
41. SMU
46. TULSA
53. UCONN

Here is what was said about UC:

Quote:Cincinnati is just a few turnovers away from a great story. Even with a young team, and even with head coach Mick Cronin on medical leave, the Bearcats are making shots and playing D. The only thing holding Troy Caupain and his teammates back is the worst turnover percentage in conference play. -- John Gasaway