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The Majority of players as Starters in the Super Bowl were 3* HS Recruits.
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Frog in the Kitchen Sink Offline
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Post: #21
RE: The Majority of players as Starters in the Super Bowl were 3* HS Recruits.
The 40% of 5 stars drafted needs an asterisk. Those recruits have other factors that predict getting drafted other than natural ability. They go to schools with the best facilities, strong coaching and Branding that increases their value on draft day.

If I was looking at the data, I'd like to compare 5 stars and 2 stars at the same school so that those variables are controlled for. Of course, it's hard to find 2 stars at schools who get a lot of 5 stars.
01-27-2015 06:51 PM
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Wedge Offline
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Post: #22
RE: The Majority of players as Starters in the Super Bowl were 3* HS Recruits.
(01-27-2015 06:51 PM)Frog in the Kitchen Sink Wrote:  The 40% of 5 stars drafted needs an asterisk. Those recruits have other factors that predict getting drafted other than natural ability. They go to schools with the best facilities, strong coaching and Branding that increases their value on draft day.

If I was looking at the data, I'd like to compare 5 stars and 2 stars at the same school so that those variables are controlled for. Of course, it's hard to find 2 stars at schools who get a lot of 5 stars.

There are factors against 5-star recruits, too. Many get 5 stars as a HS senior because they are early bloomers who peak in HS, whereas the 2 and 3-stars that end up in the NFL didn't reach their peak in HS; they peak in college or the NFL. Also, because 5-stars are more likely to go to schools that stack up 4 and 5-star recruits like bricks on a wall, they are more likely to sit on the bench early in their college career and/or get beaten out for playing time by other talented players. The overlooked 2 or 3-star who ends up being great on a college team that doesn't have a loaded depth chart might be a starter for 3 or 4 years; the playing time and attention from coaches helps him progress more rapidly, and gets him more notice from NFL scouts.
01-27-2015 07:23 PM
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C2__ Offline
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Post: #23
RE: The Majority of players as Starters in the Super Bowl were 3* HS Recruits.
Also, the 5-stars may get a big head and rest on their laurels while the 3-stars and lower will keep working becuase they have a chip on their shoulder. That's the perfect player, the one who is not below average but also not good enough or highly touted enough coming out of high school to get an over-inflated ego and too much status too soon to distract from playing and working on their craft.

Also, to rehash a previous point on this thread, there's just more of them then the 4 and 5 stars, who may not pan out anyways.
01-27-2015 09:42 PM
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Native Georgian Offline
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Post: #24
RE: The Majority of players as Starters in the Super Bowl were 3* HS Recruits.
(01-25-2015 03:43 PM)bitcruncher Wrote:  Recruiting services measure only pure talent. There's no metric for measuring a kid's heart, will, and dedication.
This.

Mostly forgotten now, but the former Auburn HC (1951-75) Ralph Jordan once said basically about HS recruits, "If I could only see into their hearts, I could let Alabama sign 100, let Auburn sign 100, then I could sign 100 from what's left over and beat both of them."

Wise words.
01-28-2015 01:25 PM
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jrj84105 Offline
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Post: #25
RE: The Majority of players as Starters in the Super Bowl were 3* HS Recruits.
(01-27-2015 06:51 PM)Frog in the Kitchen Sink Wrote:  If I was looking at the data, I'd like to compare 5 stars and 2 stars at the same school so that those variables are controlled for. Of course, it's hard to find 2 stars at schools who get a lot of 5 stars.
I think you'd see the same thing at TCU that I've seen at Utah. If you stratify with 5.7 (Rivals point system) and up as the upper tertile, 5.5-5.6 as the middle tertile, and 5.4 and below as the lower tertile you'll see a much higher rate of return (measured in NFL guys or multi-year starters) on the upper tertile than the lower tertile and even the middle tertile. I would say, however, that we've had quite a few 4* guys wind up on milk cartons just because I think their questionable ability to qualify is why they didn't commit to the bluebloods.
(This post was last modified: 01-28-2015 03:51 PM by jrj84105.)
01-28-2015 03:50 PM
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Frog in the Kitchen Sink Offline
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Post: #26
RE: The Majority of players as Starters in the Super Bowl were 3* HS Recruits.
(01-28-2015 03:50 PM)jrj84105 Wrote:  
(01-27-2015 06:51 PM)Frog in the Kitchen Sink Wrote:  If I was looking at the data, I'd like to compare 5 stars and 2 stars at the same school so that those variables are controlled for. Of course, it's hard to find 2 stars at schools who get a lot of 5 stars.
I think you'd see the same thing at TCU that I've seen at Utah. If you stratify with 5.7 (Rivals point system) and up as the upper tertile, 5.5-5.6 as the middle tertile, and 5.4 and below as the lower tertile you'll see a much higher rate of return (measured in NFL guys or multi-year starters) on the upper tertile than the lower tertile and even the middle tertile. I would say, however, that we've had quite a few 4* guys wind up on milk cartons just because I think their questionable ability to qualify is why they didn't commit to the bluebloods.

Threw this together quickly so may be mistakes, but for TCU we've had 22 NFL draft picks that are in the rivals data base dating to 2002- 10 2 stars, 9 3 stars and 3 4 stars. We've had 83 2 stars, 78 3 stars and 12 4 stars over that period. No 5 stars.

So the % is 12.0% of 2 Stars, 11.5% of 3 stars and 25% of 4 stars. So 2 and 3 stars the same rate. A little higher percentage of the 4 stars, but a small n number, and one of the 4 stars never started a game for us and in fact barely played on anything but special teams- not sure how he got drafted, as he would be considered a bust from a TCU perspective.
(This post was last modified: 01-28-2015 05:27 PM by Frog in the Kitchen Sink.)
01-28-2015 05:26 PM
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jrj84105 Offline
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Post: #27
RE: The Majority of players as Starters in the Super Bowl were 3* HS Recruits.
That's why I split the kids by the points rather than the stars. It evens out the numbers a little to move the high 3*s up with the 4*s and the low 3*s down with the twos.

I think TCU was like Utah in the respect that some of the unevaluated guys (2* by default) have come through nontraditional pathways (a year in the minors for example) but were previously rated higher before taking a detour.
01-28-2015 07:04 PM
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prp Offline
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Post: #28
RE: The Majority of players as Starters in the Super Bowl were 3* HS Recruits.
Maybe it's just a numbers game. How many 4 and 5 star players are coming out of HS each year compared to 2 and 3 star players?
01-28-2015 08:31 PM
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Sultan of Euphonistan Offline
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Post: #29
RE: The Majority of players as Starters in the Super Bowl were 3* HS Recruits.
(01-27-2015 09:42 PM)_C2_ Wrote:  Also, the 5-stars may get a big head and rest on their laurels while the 3-stars and lower will keep working becuase they have a chip on their shoulder. That's the perfect player, the one who is not below average but also not good enough or highly touted enough coming out of high school to get an over-inflated ego and too much status too soon to distract from playing and working on their craft.

Also, to rehash a previous point on this thread, there's just more of them then the 4 and 5 stars, who may not pan out anyways.

A good example of this is Julian Edelman. He went to Kent State and is crazy intense about working his butt off. Definitely has the underdog chip on his shoulder mentality.
01-29-2015 02:26 AM
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adcorbett Offline
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Post: #30
RE: The Majority of players as Starters in the Super Bowl were 3* HS Recruits.
(01-28-2015 08:31 PM)prp Wrote:  Maybe it's just a numbers game. How many 4 and 5 star players are coming out of HS each year compared to 2 and 3 star players?

It is. Roughly, using Rivals (which is the standard used for these), you get roughly these numbers annually

5 star - 25-30
4 star - 250-275
3 star - 850-900
2 Star - 2000
Unranked (but listed) 1500-2000
01-29-2015 02:58 PM
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