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stever20 Online
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looking at the polls start of year/end of year
Looking at the polls- 9 teams were ranked start of the year and not end of the year....
4 Oklahoma
9 S Carolina
11 Stanford
13 LSU
17 Notre Dame
21 Texas A&M
22 Nebraska
23 N Carolina
25 Washington

so 64% rate there 16/25. If you look at top 20- it's 15/20, and top 10 8/10.

playoff teams were all in the preseason top 5 AP. FSU 1, Ala 2, Ore 3, and OSU 5.
access teams- Mich St 8, Baylor 10, Ole Miss 18 were in the top 25 preseason. TCU, Ga Tech, Boise, Miss St, and Arizona weren't ranked start of season.

Think it's pretty interesting how the top teams were so well pegged, but that 2nd level of teams was no where near what was expected. Preseason polls expected Oklahoma, Auburn, UCLA, S Carolina, and Clemson to be the reps- along with Mich St, Baylor, and then G5 team(Marshall was leading vote getter preseason).
01-20-2015 04:23 PM
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USFRamenu Away
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Post: #2
RE: looking at the polls start of year/end of year
(01-20-2015 04:23 PM)stever20 Wrote:  Looking at the polls- 9 teams were ranked start of the year and not end of the year....
4 Oklahoma
9 S Carolina
11 Stanford
13 LSU
17 Notre Dame
21 Texas A&M
22 Nebraska
23 N Carolina
25 Washington

so 64% rate there 16/25. If you look at top 20- it's 15/20, and top 10 8/10.

playoff teams were all in the preseason top 5 AP. FSU 1, Ala 2, Ore 3, and OSU 5.
access teams- Mich St 8, Baylor 10, Ole Miss 18 were in the top 25 preseason. TCU, Ga Tech, Boise, Miss St, and Arizona weren't ranked start of season.

Think it's pretty interesting how the top teams were so well pegged, but that 2nd level of teams was no where near what was expected. Preseason polls expected Oklahoma, Auburn, UCLA, S Carolina, and Clemson to be the reps- along with Mich St, Baylor, and then G5 team(Marshall was leading vote getter preseason).

How is it interesting at all? It's easy to rise in the polls when you start at the top. As for the other "Power" school, they only have to climb over the rest of the 65 "Power" schools in the polls. The only reason any G5 school is mentioned is because everyone would be screaming fraud if they weren't. Besides, it's not like they'll let any G5 school start the year ranked anyway. 07-coffee3
01-20-2015 04:32 PM
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stever20 Online
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RE: looking at the polls start of year/end of year
(01-20-2015 04:32 PM)USFRamenu Wrote:  
(01-20-2015 04:23 PM)stever20 Wrote:  Looking at the polls- 9 teams were ranked start of the year and not end of the year....
4 Oklahoma
9 S Carolina
11 Stanford
13 LSU
17 Notre Dame
21 Texas A&M
22 Nebraska
23 N Carolina
25 Washington

so 64% rate there 16/25. If you look at top 20- it's 15/20, and top 10 8/10.

playoff teams were all in the preseason top 5 AP. FSU 1, Ala 2, Ore 3, and OSU 5.
access teams- Mich St 8, Baylor 10, Ole Miss 18 were in the top 25 preseason. TCU, Ga Tech, Boise, Miss St, and Arizona weren't ranked start of season.

Think it's pretty interesting how the top teams were so well pegged, but that 2nd level of teams was no where near what was expected. Preseason polls expected Oklahoma, Auburn, UCLA, S Carolina, and Clemson to be the reps- along with Mich St, Baylor, and then G5 team(Marshall was leading vote getter preseason).

How is it interesting at all? It's easy to rise in the polls when you start at the top. As for the other "Power" school, they only have to climb over the rest of the 65 "Power" schools in the polls. The only reason any G5 school is mentioned is because everyone would be screaming fraud if they weren't. Besides, it's not like they'll let any G5 school start the year ranked anyway. 07-coffee3

I'd look at TCU. They were unranked and yet finished the season #6 with not even winning a conference championship. It's complete bull crap to say that Alabama, Ohio St, and Oregon wouldn't have been in the playoffs if they hadn't started off ranked so highly. Of course they would have.
01-20-2015 11:28 PM
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ohio1317 Offline
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RE: looking at the polls start of year/end of year
Agreed. I'm not saying starting position is no factor at all, but by the end of the year, it's probably more of a tie-breaker if anything. The only place I think it was really, really relevant was when you were talking multiple undefeated teams as most voters didn't like moving down teams without a loss.

There's room to argue about the rankings of course, but I don't think most of them are a huge factor of where they started.

Now on the polls themselves, it is interesting the greater percent correct they got toward the top than below. I'd expect the last 5 to cause issues, but not sure if I'd have guessed the same thing with the top 20 vs. top 10.
01-20-2015 11:46 PM
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RE: looking at the polls start of year/end of year
(01-20-2015 11:46 PM)ohio1317 Wrote:  Agreed. I'm not saying starting position is no factor at all, but by the end of the year, it's probably more of a tie-breaker if anything. The only place I think it was really, really relevant was when you were talking multiple undefeated teams as most voters didn't like moving down teams without a loss.

There's room to argue about the rankings of course, but I don't think most of them are a huge factor of where they started.

Now on the polls themselves, it is interesting the greater percent correct they got toward the top than below. I'd expect the last 5 to cause issues, but not sure if I'd have guessed the same thing with the top 20 vs. top 10.

yeah and even with the 9 that were ranked that were unranked end of the year- 3 of them(Stanford, Notre Dame, and Nebraska) were teams 26-28 in the polls. Only the 2 Carolina teams and Washington didn't get any AP votes end of the year that were in the top 25.
01-21-2015 12:13 AM
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RE: looking at the polls start of year/end of year
(01-20-2015 11:46 PM)ohio1317 Wrote:  Agreed. I'm not saying starting position is no factor at all, but by the end of the year, it's probably more of a tie-breaker if anything. The only place I think it was really, really relevant was when you were talking multiple undefeated teams as most voters didn't like moving down teams without a loss.

There's room to argue about the rankings of course, but I don't think most of them are a huge factor of where they started.

Now on the polls themselves, it is interesting the greater percent correct they got toward the top than below. I'd expect the last 5 to cause issues, but not sure if I'd have guessed the same thing with the top 20 vs. top 10.

With the committee, preseason ranking is less of a factor than it was before.
01-21-2015 10:41 AM
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ken d Offline
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RE: looking at the polls start of year/end of year
When we look at results like these we have to conclude that the poll voters have absolutely no idea which teams will be good and which won't. Well, that's not entirely true. I believe if you could find a football fan who had been marooned on an island in the Pacific for 20 years, with no contact with the outside world, and asked him to predict the top 25 teams for the next season, he would correctly include 60% of the teams that are ranked at the end of the year.
01-21-2015 10:52 AM
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RE: looking at the polls start of year/end of year
(01-21-2015 10:52 AM)ken d Wrote:  When we look at results like these we have to conclude that the poll voters have absolutely no idea which teams will be good and which won't. Well, that's not entirely true. I believe if you could find a football fan who had been marooned on an island in the Pacific for 20 years, with no contact with the outside world, and asked him to predict the top 25 teams for the next season, he would correctly include 60% of the teams that are ranked at the end of the year.
So having the preseason poll top 5 include all 4 playoff teams doesn't mean anything? bull crap. It's ridiculous to say what you said. 6 of the preseason top 10 were either in the playoffs or made an access bowl- and finished in the top 7 end of season. Even some of the others were real close- Georgia preseaosn 12, finished 9. Wisconsin preseason 14 finished 13. Ole Miss preseason 18 finished 17. Kansas St preseason 20 finished 18. But that's supposed to mean it's luck? BS.
01-21-2015 11:00 AM
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RE: looking at the polls start of year/end of year
This was an odd season. There was a clear top-5 (the 4 playoff teams + TCU) and clear #'s 6&7 (Baylor & MSU). But there was a very small difference between #8 and #30.

Think of it this way - if #8 Georgia Tech had missed one field goal against Georgia they would have lost 24-21 (instead of winning in OT). They would have been 8-4, have missed the access bowl and would have played Oklahoma instead. Assuming they beat OU, they would have finished 9-4 with wins over Clemson, Oklahoma, 3 OOC scrubs, and 4 teams with losing records in ACC conference play. They'd be just another 9-4 ACC team like #24 Louisville and unranked Duke. On top of that that GT lost at home to Duke in the head-to-head and would have finished the season losing 2 of their last 3 games.

So the difference between the #8 team and potentially being unranked was literally one field goal.
01-22-2015 09:24 AM
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ken d Offline
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RE: looking at the polls start of year/end of year
(01-21-2015 11:00 AM)stever20 Wrote:  
(01-21-2015 10:52 AM)ken d Wrote:  When we look at results like these we have to conclude that the poll voters have absolutely no idea which teams will be good and which won't. Well, that's not entirely true. I believe if you could find a football fan who had been marooned on an island in the Pacific for 20 years, with no contact with the outside world, and asked him to predict the top 25 teams for the next season, he would correctly include 60% of the teams that are ranked at the end of the year.
So having the preseason poll top 5 include all 4 playoff teams doesn't mean anything? bull crap. It's ridiculous to say what you said. 6 of the preseason top 10 were either in the playoffs or made an access bowl- and finished in the top 7 end of season. Even some of the others were real close- Georgia preseaosn 12, finished 9. Wisconsin preseason 14 finished 13. Ole Miss preseason 18 finished 17. Kansas St preseason 20 finished 18. But that's supposed to mean it's luck? BS.

Thank you for your civil response to my post. You didn't address my main point, but then, you rarely do. The fact is that most of the top 25 in any given year are perennial winners, that anybody could pick. So a 60% success rate is no better than a coin flip.
01-22-2015 10:02 AM
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Post: #11
RE: looking at the polls start of year/end of year
(01-22-2015 10:02 AM)ken d Wrote:  
(01-21-2015 11:00 AM)stever20 Wrote:  
(01-21-2015 10:52 AM)ken d Wrote:  When we look at results like these we have to conclude that the poll voters have absolutely no idea which teams will be good and which won't. Well, that's not entirely true. I believe if you could find a football fan who had been marooned on an island in the Pacific for 20 years, with no contact with the outside world, and asked him to predict the top 25 teams for the next season, he would correctly include 60% of the teams that are ranked at the end of the year.
So having the preseason poll top 5 include all 4 playoff teams doesn't mean anything? bull crap. It's ridiculous to say what you said. 6 of the preseason top 10 were either in the playoffs or made an access bowl- and finished in the top 7 end of season. Even some of the others were real close- Georgia preseaosn 12, finished 9. Wisconsin preseason 14 finished 13. Ole Miss preseason 18 finished 17. Kansas St preseason 20 finished 18. But that's supposed to mean it's luck? BS.

Thank you for your civil response to my post. You didn't address my main point, but then, you rarely do. The fact is that most of the top 25 in any given year are perennial winners, that anybody could pick. So a 60% success rate is no better than a coin flip.

I'd say having 6 of the preseason top 10 being either in the playoffs or access bowls is pretty damn good. Or 75% of the preseason top 20 being in the postseason top 25- with 2 more being ranked just outside the top 25. So 85% of their top 20 finished in the top 30. Yeah- that's not bad.
01-22-2015 10:14 AM
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ohio1317 Offline
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Post: #12
RE: looking at the polls start of year/end of year
I'll agree the top 25 overall isn't a hugely great prediction, but the top 10 and top 20 are better.

They shouldn't be purely predictive anyway. The polls at the start of the year aren't supposed to be an indicator of how things will end up imo. At the start of the year, the poll should be about how good you think teams are regardless of schedule. At the end of the year it should be a ranking of their accomplishments. As the season progresses, you gradually shift between them.

This means you should be ranking a few teams at the start whom you do not think will be in the final ranking. I can think a team is probably one of the top 25 in the country, but due to schedule issues will likely drop a few extra games and not have one of the top 25 accomplishments at the end. Similarly, I can think a teams that starts out below that in strength will end up in the top 25 in accomplishments due to a schedule that is easier/flows right (easier games at the beginning to gel and any harder games after byes/at home). In that set-up, the team with the harder schedule already has a harder schedule. There is no reason to punish them in the ranking for that too before they even played the games.
(This post was last modified: 01-22-2015 02:22 PM by ohio1317.)
01-22-2015 02:16 PM
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RE: looking at the polls start of year/end of year
(01-22-2015 10:14 AM)stever20 Wrote:  
(01-22-2015 10:02 AM)ken d Wrote:  
(01-21-2015 11:00 AM)stever20 Wrote:  
(01-21-2015 10:52 AM)ken d Wrote:  When we look at results like these we have to conclude that the poll voters have absolutely no idea which teams will be good and which won't. Well, that's not entirely true. I believe if you could find a football fan who had been marooned on an island in the Pacific for 20 years, with no contact with the outside world, and asked him to predict the top 25 teams for the next season, he would correctly include 60% of the teams that are ranked at the end of the year.
So having the preseason poll top 5 include all 4 playoff teams doesn't mean anything? bull crap. It's ridiculous to say what you said. 6 of the preseason top 10 were either in the playoffs or made an access bowl- and finished in the top 7 end of season. Even some of the others were real close- Georgia preseaosn 12, finished 9. Wisconsin preseason 14 finished 13. Ole Miss preseason 18 finished 17. Kansas St preseason 20 finished 18. But that's supposed to mean it's luck? BS.

Thank you for your civil response to my post. You didn't address my main point, but then, you rarely do. The fact is that most of the top 25 in any given year are perennial winners, that anybody could pick. So a 60% success rate is no better than a coin flip.

I'd say having 6 of the preseason top 10 being either in the playoffs or access bowls is pretty damn good. Or 75% of the preseason top 20 being in the postseason top 25- with 2 more being ranked just outside the top 25. So 85% of their top 20 finished in the top 30. Yeah- that's not bad.

I think some of that though is bias. If you assume a team to be good, and they're ranked, you tend to drop them less if they lose, apparently the assumption being that the team that beat them is better than you thought. To some extent I think it's a self-fulfilling prophecy. How long did it take Boise to get ranked? The whole year? I think there's some built-in inertia that makes the prediction numbers look better than they are.
01-22-2015 05:34 PM
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RE: looking at the polls start of year/end of year
(01-20-2015 11:28 PM)stever20 Wrote:  
(01-20-2015 04:32 PM)USFRamenu Wrote:  
(01-20-2015 04:23 PM)stever20 Wrote:  Looking at the polls- 9 teams were ranked start of the year and not end of the year....
4 Oklahoma
9 S Carolina
11 Stanford
13 LSU
17 Notre Dame
21 Texas A&M
22 Nebraska
23 N Carolina
25 Washington

so 64% rate there 16/25. If you look at top 20- it's 15/20, and top 10 8/10.

playoff teams were all in the preseason top 5 AP. FSU 1, Ala 2, Ore 3, and OSU 5.
access teams- Mich St 8, Baylor 10, Ole Miss 18 were in the top 25 preseason. TCU, Ga Tech, Boise, Miss St, and Arizona weren't ranked start of season.

Think it's pretty interesting how the top teams were so well pegged, but that 2nd level of teams was no where near what was expected. Preseason polls expected Oklahoma, Auburn, UCLA, S Carolina, and Clemson to be the reps- along with Mich St, Baylor, and then G5 team(Marshall was leading vote getter preseason).

How is it interesting at all? It's easy to rise in the polls when you start at the top. As for the other "Power" school, they only have to climb over the rest of the 65 "Power" schools in the polls. The only reason any G5 school is mentioned is because everyone would be screaming fraud if they weren't. Besides, it's not like they'll let any G5 school start the year ranked anyway. 07-coffee3

I'd look at TCU. They were unranked and yet finished the season #6 with not even winning a conference championship. It's complete bull crap to say that Alabama, Ohio St, and Oregon wouldn't have been in the playoffs if they hadn't started off ranked so highly. Of course they would have.
I have seen you say this in multiple threads--how come TCU has a trophy in its case that says "Champions of the Big 12" How do I have video of the conference commissioner saying congrats Big 12 Champions TCU? Interesting things about facts, they are easy to prove.
01-22-2015 05:54 PM
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