The unofficial online home for fans of the Western Michigan University Broncos. Part of Collegiate Sports Nation (CSN).

WMU is currently unranked (#22 / 5 votes) in the USCHO poll and unranked (no votes) in the USA Today/USA Hockey Magazine poll.

We're #21 in the PairWise, #21 in the RPI (.5286 / #8 SOS) and #21 in the KRACH.


Note: vertical axis is divided in 5-place increments; 20th is at the bottom, 1st is up top.

NCHC Teams:
#2 - North Dakota ............... 2/20, 2/21
#7 - Minnesota Duluth ........... @1/16 (2-2 SOW), @1/17 (4-2 W), 3/6, 3/7
#8 - Nebraska Omaha ............. 10/17 (2-5 L), 10/18 (0-3 L), @2/13, @2/14
#9 - Miami ...................... @11/21 (0-1 L), @11/22 (2-5 L), 1/31, @2/7 (Soldier Field)
#11 - Denver .................... @11/7 (3-6 L), @11/8 (6-3 W)
Unranked - WMU
Unranked - St. Cloud State ...... 11/14 (3-4 L), 11/15 (1-1 SOW), @1/23, @1/24
Unranked - Colorado College ..... 12/12 (3-2 W), 12/13 (1-1 SOW), @2/27, @2/28


Other 2014-2015 Opponents:
#15/#13 - Colgate ............... @12/29* (1-2 L)
Unranked - Penn State ........... @12/30* (4-1 W)
Unranked - Alaska Fairbanks ..... 10/24 (0-1 L), 10/25 (4-2 W)
Unranked - Ohio State ........... @11/28* (6-2 W)
Unranked - Notre Dame ........... 1/9 (4-2 W), @1/10 (4-3 W)
Unranked - Union ................ @11/29* (8-2 W)
Unranked - Canisius ............. @10/10 (2-4 L), @10/11 (4-1 W)
*In-season tournament game






Note: vertical axis is divided in 10-place increments; 50th is at the bottom, 1st is up top.


NCHC Finish/Playoff Probabilities:


Source: http://www.playoffstatus.com/nchc-hockey...dings.html


Source: http://www.playoffstatus.com/nchc-hockey...ities.html

Administrative changes this week...

I swapped the predicted NCHC finish chart from a stacked bar to a stacked area design... I think it's a bit easier on the eyes.

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Somewhat surprised we didn't crack the Top 20 after beating/tying the then #5 team in the country, on the road no less.

Still, picking up more votes. If we take care of things this weekend in St. Cloud I think we'll finally have our first showing of the season on the ranking chart.

can't believe we didnt' pick up more votes. That being said, another 5pt weekend this week would put us there.

Question for those of you more familiar than myself with the Pairwise rankings: obviously, two wins at SCSU would help and two losses would hurt. Does it make a difference in how the Pairwise is calculated if/when SCSU (or any other opponent, for that matter) is in the Top 16 of the Pairwise? For example, if SCSU were to make it into the Top 16 later in the season, does that help us more if we have a win (or wins) over them? If SCSU fails to make it back into the Top 16, are any victories that we may get against them somehow worth less than victories over teams that are in the Top 16?

No. There used to be a TUC (Team under consideration) where your record against the top 25 RPI etc. was taken into account but was taken out a few years ago. Now it's all 59 teams.

Thanks, Nick. Follow-up question: does the Pairwise take strength-of-schedule into account (and, if so, to what extent)?

heres a good explanation

http://www.uscho.com/faq/pairwise-rankings-explanation/

There is a quality win bonus for beating teams in the top 20 of the RPI

(01-20-2015 09:05 AM)Ubish Wrote:  heres a good explanation

http://www.uscho.com/faq/pairwise-rankings-explanation/

I agree - thanks for that, Ubish

Road wins are "key" in moving up pairwise, as they value these wins more than home wins. Possible wins over SCSU won't move the needle a lot. Same with possible road wins vs CC. Now possible road wins vs UNO will move the needle.

Games on Olympic sheets always concern me, epecially going to Colorado Springs.

I feel good about the nuetral site outdoor game in Chicago vs Miami.

Home loses are weighted, though we match up well vs Miami, North Dakota and UMD.

UMD series is the last home and last NCHC series before the conference tournament. Only in our second season in the NCHC, I believe we are already starting some new-bitter annual rivals with the Bulldogs and the former Sioux. UMD was not happy we ended thier season last year, sweeping them in 2 games in thier own back yard. They were on a roll this year, till they ran into the Broncos last week picking up only 1 point. They want to pay us back bad, real bad and will be coming at us hard when the visit Kalamazoo later this year.

The Sioux, even though they won't admit it yet, are also turning into bitter rivals. They were not happy how we ripped the regular season conference title out of their hands last year in front of the Sioux home crowd. They also have been on a roll this year and it will be interesting to see how the home series @ Lawson ends up this year.

What really matters is for this team to contuniue to improve and be playing thier best hockey going into the confernce tournament. I'm not a big fan of a team backing into the NCAA tournament with a pair wise auto bid, but with this conference, a strong argument could be made this year as to the benfit of this[/u]

(01-20-2015 11:40 PM)BroncoFever Wrote:  What really matters is for this team to contuniue to improve and be playing thier best hockey going into the confernce tournament. I'm not a big fan of a team backing into the NCAA tournament with a pair wise auto bid

I assume there will be a team or two that wins its conference tournament and makes the NCAA tournament that wouldn't make it otherwise. It will be awfully difficult for us to back in, despite how well the team has played recently. Bottom line, we need to keep winning games and series (or, at worst, splitting series).

Stop worrying about the pairwise. That loss to Canisius is going to kill any chance we have at an at-large bid. The loss to Alaska too. We would pretty much have to not lose another regular season game and I don't see that happening.

(01-22-2015 02:33 PM)JerrySeymoursParoleOfficer Wrote:  Stop worrying about the pairwise. That loss to Canisius is going to kill any chance we have at an at-large bid. The loss to Alaska too.

We also have a win over both Canisius and Alaska. I don't think that will be what keeps us out should we fall short of the NCAAs.

(01-22-2015 02:33 PM)JerrySeymoursParoleOfficer Wrote:  Stop worrying about the pairwise. That loss to Canisius is going to kill any chance we have at an at-large bid. The loss to Alaska too. We would pretty much have to not lose another regular season game and I don't see that happening.

Pairwise is still in play Jerry, so many, many fluid things can change to impact our pairwise ranking.

If you go to CHN we site, click on the pairwise heading, then click on customization, then click on Modify game results. You can change the outcome of some games, either Western Michigan or some other team. You can see how just a game here or there can make some pretty significant moves

For example:

Chg Canisius loss to a win, we move up only 3 spots to 18 (a ex of how road loss does not hurt as bad)
Chg Alaska loss to a win, we move up 7 spots to 14 (an ex of how a home loss hurts more than on the road)
Chg both to wins, we move up 9 spots to 12

I would prefer seeing this team win the conference tournament outright, but would not be ashamed if this team or any team in the brutle NCHC backed in with an Auto Bid.

If the season was to end today with WMU winning the conference tournament, We would see 6 NCHC teams make it into the NCAA's this year.

But.....WMU probably would need to be in the top 10-12 prior to the conference tournament to assure them of an auto bid if for some reason they get knocked out of the conference tournament.

we might be in the position at the end of the year where we are a bubble team but get to play a top 10 team in the first round of the NCHC tournament. A win or 2 could put us over the top without even having to win the whole tournament

They need to sweep CC. They need to sweep Miami home/neutral. They need to win the series vs. UMD at the end (up 1-0-1). They need to sweep UND and/or @UNO. They need to make the final or win the 3rd place game.

It's technically possible, but very unlikely.

(01-25-2015 09:32 PM)BroncoFever Wrote:  

(01-22-2015 02:33 PM)JerrySeymoursParoleOfficer Wrote:  Stop worrying about the pairwise. That loss to Canisius is going to kill any chance we have at an at-large bid. The loss to Alaska too. We would pretty much have to not lose another regular season game and I don't see that happening.

Pairwise is still in play Jerry, so many, many fluid things can change to impact our pairwise ranking.

If you go to CHN we site, click on the pairwise heading, then click on customization, then click on Modify game results. You can change the outcome of some games, either Western Michigan or some other team. You can see how just a game here or there can make some pretty significant moves

For example:

Chg Canisius loss to a win, we move up only 3 spots to 18 (a ex of how road loss does not hurt as bad)
Chg Alaska loss to a win, we move up 7 spots to 14 (an ex of how a home loss hurts more than on the road)
Chg both to wins, we move up 9 spots to 12

I would prefer seeing this team win the conference tournament outright, but would not be ashamed if this team or any team in the brutle NCHC backed in with an Auto Bid.

If the season was to end today with WMU winning the conference tournament, We would see 6 NCHC teams make it into the NCAA's this year.

But.....WMU probably would need to be in the top 10-12 prior to the conference tournament to assure them of an auto bid if for some reason they get knocked out of the conference tournament.

Except for the fact that you know... we can't change those to wins.

using the CHN customizer it shows if we split all of our series but sweep CC we finish 18. If we manage to sweep miami and CC and split the rest we finish 14. That is before the conference tournament.

I don't take the CHN thing as set in stone, and we certainly have an uphill battle but it's not out of the realm of possibility.

Jerry-Ya I get that and I think you are missing my point. I picked those two games that we played to show you, using the CHN simulator, that some games outcome really doesn't move our pair wise needle much, ie the road loss early on to Cansius and some games mean more , ie the home loss vs Alaska. I think after getting spanked 0-7 going into Saturdays game our pairwise didn't even move. Looking at our up coming schedule we have a lot of opportunities to move up.

Ubish, you can't really use the CHN simulator yet to project our pairwise, even though you can input our projected wins/loses to get a different ranking. You would also need to enter in the projected results for all the other teams and games they play in order get an accurate ranking. The results of other teams games will also impact our final pairwise ranking

(01-26-2015 01:38 PM)BroncoFever Wrote:  Ubish, you can't really use the CHN simulator yet to project our pairwise, even though you can input our projected wins/loses to get a different ranking. You would also need to enter in the projected results for all the other teams and games they play in order get an accurate ranking. The results of other teams games will also impact our final pairwise ranking

I know it's not a projection, but it can show you what is possible. We've never been in a situation like this before where most of the teams we are playing at the end of the year are at the top of the pairwise. The predictor does a great job of showing that even splits against these teams can help us climb.

(01-26-2015 11:27 PM)Ubish Wrote:  

(01-26-2015 01:38 PM)BroncoFever Wrote:  Ubish, you can't really use the CHN simulator yet to project our pairwise, even though you can input our projected wins/loses to get a different ranking. You would also need to enter in the projected results for all the other teams and games they play in order get an accurate ranking. The results of other teams games will also impact our final pairwise ranking

I know it's not a projection, but it can show you what is possible. We've never been in a situation like this before where most of the teams we are playing at the end of the year are at the top of the pairwise. The predictor does a great job of showing that even splits against these teams can help us climb.

Yep, you are correct. UNO road series will be this teams greatest opportunity to make some significant gains pairwise, along with a home series vs a possible #1 ranked team North Dakota