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DefCONNOne Offline
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Post: #101
RE: Latest Bracket Projections - AAC
(02-17-2015 10:31 PM)rallen Wrote:  
(02-17-2015 09:40 PM)DefCONNOne Wrote:  
(02-17-2015 10:14 AM)Bearcat2012 Wrote:  http://espn.go.com/mens-college-basketball/bubblewatch

ESPN Bubble Watch - 2/17/15

American Athletic Conference
Teams that should be in: SMU
Work left to do: Temple, Cincinnati, Tulsa

Well, so much for Connecticut. If you were searching for positive signs that the disappointing defending national champion was about to embark on the mother of all late runs, you got a few last week, when Kevin Ollie's smaller lineup pounded Tulsa 70-45. It was UConn's third win in a row. A high-profile, prime-time win at SMU on Saturday would have gotten the Huskies to 15-9 with a big boost to their RPI, making them an outfit worth watching the rest of the way. Instead, Ryan Boatright & Co. were blown out. It's looking like auto-bid or bust for the reigning champs.

SMU [21-5 (12-2), RPI: 21, SOS: 65] On paper, the Mustangs' plastering of Connecticut on Saturday night doesn't do a whole lot to buttress their resume. The Huskies are, after all, a ways off from a top-50 RPI, and margin of victory doesn't matter. In reality, SMU should be in the tournament at this point, and its position in this edition of Bubble Watch has changed accordingly. We're close to a lock, too. Were SMU to lose out (including the first round of the American tournament, with current RPI numbers considered) it would end up 21-10 overall with maybe one sub-100 loss, just two top-50 wins (at Temple, at Tulsa) and a 7-9 record against the top 100. That's pretty decent shape for a bubble team, but hardly a guarantee, so no lock just yet. SMU may not be a high seed, but where selection is concerned, it's in great shape.

Temple [19-7 (10-3), RPI: 33, SOS: 61] The Owls followed up a nice win over Cincinnati last week with a businesslike performance at home versus East Carolina, their seventh win in a row. As ESPN bracketologist Joe Lunardi noted on Twitter late last week, Fran Dunphy's team is undefeated with its full lineup intact. The injuries have come in fits and spurts, but they have coincided with most of Temple's losses, and that in itself constitutes a major opportunity: If the Owls can spend the next three weeks showing off how good they are at full strength, the committee will have to evaluate them on that basis, and less on how they looked when banged up. They're off to a good start already.

Cincinnati [17-8 (8-5), RPI: 39, SOS: 46] There was good news and bad news for the Bearcats on Saturday. NC State's win at Louisville helped to make Cincinnati's profile look marginally better, which is good. The Bearcats lost at home to Tulane and its 150s-ish RPI, which is, as you know, bad. The latter outweighs the former by a lot, tossing another questionable defeat on the page not far from an ugly loss at East Carolina on Feb. 1. Even so, Cincinnati still looks better than your run-of-the-mill bubble team, what with its sweep of SMU, its top-25 nonconference schedule and (for now) its 5-3 top-50 record. This week, Cincy resumes its crosstown rivalry with Xavier -- a chance to pick up a quality nonconference win -- before Saturday's bad-loss risk of a trip to Houston.

Tulsa [17-7 (10-2), RPI: 49, SOS: 123] Last week, we mentioned that the current state of the American Conference is such that Tulsa could begin conference play 10-1 without notching any win better than a road victory at Temple, or creating the kind of resume you might typically associate with any team that starts the season 10-1 in its own league. Now, after back-to-back losses to SMU and UConn, and with a 3-5 record against top-100 teams, you couldn't blame the committee for wondering just how good the Golden Hurricane really are. Tulsa was already closer to the First Four/cut line mix than either SMU or Cincy. Any more slips and it will only get closer.

Everything in this entire post is one big gigantic pile of monkey crap!! The only "projection" I care about comes out on 3/15. If UCONN isn't in the tournament on that date, sure I'll be disappointed, but I won't lose my sh*t over some 2-bit projection from a bunch of hacks!!

Don't see how it's a pile of monkey crap. Outside of winning the conference championship, these are the four teams with a realistic chance of dancing come March. SMU is playing great and should likely be in. The other three if they take care of business they're in good shape, and if they stumble badly could be in trouble. As far as UCONN goes it wasn't our year, unless we win the AAC tournamnet. Too many bad loses and not enough good wins. The ESPN article seems pretty on target to me.

The only "projection" that carries ANY weight, IMO, is the one on 3/15. Everything else is just one gigantic steaming pile of monkey crap from hacks who don't have the slightest clue what the selection committee is going to do. Sure they can make an educated guess, but at the end of the day it's just that.....a guess. Thus you get the big gigantic steaming pile of monkey crap I've been talking about.
02-17-2015 11:09 PM
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HuskyU Offline
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Post: #102
RE: Latest Bracket Projections - AAC
(02-17-2015 10:31 PM)rallen Wrote:  
(02-17-2015 09:40 PM)DefCONNOne Wrote:  
(02-17-2015 10:14 AM)Bearcat2012 Wrote:  http://espn.go.com/mens-college-basketball/bubblewatch

ESPN Bubble Watch - 2/17/15

American Athletic Conference
Teams that should be in: SMU
Work left to do: Temple, Cincinnati, Tulsa

Well, so much for Connecticut. If you were searching for positive signs that the disappointing defending national champion was about to embark on the mother of all late runs, you got a few last week, when Kevin Ollie's smaller lineup pounded Tulsa 70-45. It was UConn's third win in a row. A high-profile, prime-time win at SMU on Saturday would have gotten the Huskies to 15-9 with a big boost to their RPI, making them an outfit worth watching the rest of the way. Instead, Ryan Boatright & Co. were blown out. It's looking like auto-bid or bust for the reigning champs.

SMU [21-5 (12-2), RPI: 21, SOS: 65] On paper, the Mustangs' plastering of Connecticut on Saturday night doesn't do a whole lot to buttress their resume. The Huskies are, after all, a ways off from a top-50 RPI, and margin of victory doesn't matter. In reality, SMU should be in the tournament at this point, and its position in this edition of Bubble Watch has changed accordingly. We're close to a lock, too. Were SMU to lose out (including the first round of the American tournament, with current RPI numbers considered) it would end up 21-10 overall with maybe one sub-100 loss, just two top-50 wins (at Temple, at Tulsa) and a 7-9 record against the top 100. That's pretty decent shape for a bubble team, but hardly a guarantee, so no lock just yet. SMU may not be a high seed, but where selection is concerned, it's in great shape.

Temple [19-7 (10-3), RPI: 33, SOS: 61] The Owls followed up a nice win over Cincinnati last week with a businesslike performance at home versus East Carolina, their seventh win in a row. As ESPN bracketologist Joe Lunardi noted on Twitter late last week, Fran Dunphy's team is undefeated with its full lineup intact. The injuries have come in fits and spurts, but they have coincided with most of Temple's losses, and that in itself constitutes a major opportunity: If the Owls can spend the next three weeks showing off how good they are at full strength, the committee will have to evaluate them on that basis, and less on how they looked when banged up. They're off to a good start already.

Cincinnati [17-8 (8-5), RPI: 39, SOS: 46] There was good news and bad news for the Bearcats on Saturday. NC State's win at Louisville helped to make Cincinnati's profile look marginally better, which is good. The Bearcats lost at home to Tulane and its 150s-ish RPI, which is, as you know, bad. The latter outweighs the former by a lot, tossing another questionable defeat on the page not far from an ugly loss at East Carolina on Feb. 1. Even so, Cincinnati still looks better than your run-of-the-mill bubble team, what with its sweep of SMU, its top-25 nonconference schedule and (for now) its 5-3 top-50 record. This week, Cincy resumes its crosstown rivalry with Xavier -- a chance to pick up a quality nonconference win -- before Saturday's bad-loss risk of a trip to Houston.

Tulsa [17-7 (10-2), RPI: 49, SOS: 123] Last week, we mentioned that the current state of the American Conference is such that Tulsa could begin conference play 10-1 without notching any win better than a road victory at Temple, or creating the kind of resume you might typically associate with any team that starts the season 10-1 in its own league. Now, after back-to-back losses to SMU and UConn, and with a 3-5 record against top-100 teams, you couldn't blame the committee for wondering just how good the Golden Hurricane really are. Tulsa was already closer to the First Four/cut line mix than either SMU or Cincy. Any more slips and it will only get closer.

Everything in this entire post is one big gigantic pile of monkey crap!! The only "projection" I care about comes out on 3/15. If UCONN isn't in the tournament on that date, sure I'll be disappointed, but I won't lose my sh*t over some 2-bit projection from a bunch of hacks!!

Don't see how it's a pile of monkey crap. Outside of winning the conference championship, these are the four teams with a realistic chance of dancing come March. SMU is playing great and should likely be in. The other three if they take care of business they're in good shape, and if they stumble badly could be in trouble. As far as UCONN goes it wasn't our year, unless we win the AAC tournamnet. Too many bad loses and not enough good wins. The ESPN article seems pretty on target to me.

UCONN has been competitive in every home game at Gampel/the XL Center this year (only losses are by Yale and Texas buzzer-beaters and Temple in overtime). I don't think it's all that far-fetched that UCONN could take the auto-bid.
02-17-2015 11:13 PM
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Bearcats#1 Offline
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Post: #103
RE: Latest Bracket Projections - AAC
I see SMU, Temple, and UC in. (Barring epic collapse)

Tulsa should make it but we'll see how they do in the final 5 or 6 games

UCONN is going to have to go on a streak incl in the AAC tourney...which they host sooooo
(This post was last modified: 02-18-2015 09:29 AM by Bearcats#1.)
02-18-2015 09:28 AM
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Comet Offline
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Post: #104
RE: Latest Bracket Projections - AAC
(02-17-2015 09:40 PM)DefCONNOne Wrote:  
(02-17-2015 10:14 AM)Bearcat2012 Wrote:  http://espn.go.com/mens-college-basketball/bubblewatch

ESPN Bubble Watch - 2/17/15

American Athletic Conference
Teams that should be in: SMU
Work left to do: Temple, Cincinnati, Tulsa

Well, so much for Connecticut. If you were searching for positive signs that the disappointing defending national champion was about to embark on the mother of all late runs, you got a few last week, when Kevin Ollie's smaller lineup pounded Tulsa 70-45. It was UConn's third win in a row. A high-profile, prime-time win at SMU on Saturday would have gotten the Huskies to 15-9 with a big boost to their RPI, making them an outfit worth watching the rest of the way. Instead, Ryan Boatright & Co. were blown out. It's looking like auto-bid or bust for the reigning champs.

SMU [21-5 (12-2), RPI: 21, SOS: 65] On paper, the Mustangs' plastering of Connecticut on Saturday night doesn't do a whole lot to buttress their resume. The Huskies are, after all, a ways off from a top-50 RPI, and margin of victory doesn't matter. In reality, SMU should be in the tournament at this point, and its position in this edition of Bubble Watch has changed accordingly. We're close to a lock, too. Were SMU to lose out (including the first round of the American tournament, with current RPI numbers considered) it would end up 21-10 overall with maybe one sub-100 loss, just two top-50 wins (at Temple, at Tulsa) and a 7-9 record against the top 100. That's pretty decent shape for a bubble team, but hardly a guarantee, so no lock just yet. SMU may not be a high seed, but where selection is concerned, it's in great shape.

Temple [19-7 (10-3), RPI: 33, SOS: 61] The Owls followed up a nice win over Cincinnati last week with a businesslike performance at home versus East Carolina, their seventh win in a row. As ESPN bracketologist Joe Lunardi noted on Twitter late last week, Fran Dunphy's team is undefeated with its full lineup intact. The injuries have come in fits and spurts, but they have coincided with most of Temple's losses, and that in itself constitutes a major opportunity: If the Owls can spend the next three weeks showing off how good they are at full strength, the committee will have to evaluate them on that basis, and less on how they looked when banged up. They're off to a good start already.

Cincinnati [17-8 (8-5), RPI: 39, SOS: 46] There was good news and bad news for the Bearcats on Saturday. NC State's win at Louisville helped to make Cincinnati's profile look marginally better, which is good. The Bearcats lost at home to Tulane and its 150s-ish RPI, which is, as you know, bad. The latter outweighs the former by a lot, tossing another questionable defeat on the page not far from an ugly loss at East Carolina on Feb. 1. Even so, Cincinnati still looks better than your run-of-the-mill bubble team, what with its sweep of SMU, its top-25 nonconference schedule and (for now) its 5-3 top-50 record. This week, Cincy resumes its crosstown rivalry with Xavier -- a chance to pick up a quality nonconference win -- before Saturday's bad-loss risk of a trip to Houston.

Tulsa [17-7 (10-2), RPI: 49, SOS: 123] Last week, we mentioned that the current state of the American Conference is such that Tulsa could begin conference play 10-1 without notching any win better than a road victory at Temple, or creating the kind of resume you might typically associate with any team that starts the season 10-1 in its own league. Now, after back-to-back losses to SMU and UConn, and with a 3-5 record against top-100 teams, you couldn't blame the committee for wondering just how good the Golden Hurricane really are. Tulsa was already closer to the First Four/cut line mix than either SMU or Cincy. Any more slips and it will only get closer.

Everything in this entire post is one big gigantic pile of monkey crap!! The only "projection" I care about comes out on 3/15. If UCONN isn't in the tournament on that date, sure I'll be disappointed, but I won't lose my sh*t over some 2-bit projection from a bunch of hacks!!
Those projections are pretty much dead on...
02-18-2015 09:34 AM
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Carolina Stang Offline
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Post: #105
RE: Latest Bracket Projections - AAC
Solution - bottom teams in this conference need better OOC scheduling.

Many of these teams will improve over time - I see UH with a great trajectory as well as some others. But please for the love of Kate Upton, schedule some meaningful OOC games. It will help everyone.
(This post was last modified: 02-18-2015 09:48 AM by Carolina Stang.)
02-18-2015 09:48 AM
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USFRamenu Away
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Post: #106
RE: Latest Bracket Projections - AAC
I'm hoping we get 5 teams in. Temple, Cinci, SMU, Tulsa (With a deep run in the Conference Tourney) and the yet un named winner of the Conference Tournament. That would be awesome. 04-cheers
02-18-2015 09:51 AM
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Native Georgian Offline
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Post: #107
RE: Latest Bracket Projections - AAC
(02-18-2015 09:51 AM)USFRamenu Wrote:  I'm hoping we get 5 teams in. Temple, Cinci, SMU, Tulsa (With a deep run in the Conference Tourney) and the yet un named winner of the Conference Tournament. That would be awesome. 04-cheers
It would be awesome, yes. Don't really see any plausible path to that outcome, though.

I suspect that when it's all said and done, the American will have 3 teams in the Dance, but 4 is possible. Five… not so much.
02-18-2015 09:55 AM
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USFRamenu Away
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Post: #108
RE: Latest Bracket Projections - AAC
(02-18-2015 09:55 AM)Native Georgian Wrote:  
(02-18-2015 09:51 AM)USFRamenu Wrote:  I'm hoping we get 5 teams in. Temple, Cinci, SMU, Tulsa (With a deep run in the Conference Tourney) and the yet un named winner of the Conference Tournament. That would be awesome. 04-cheers
It would be awesome, yes. Don't really see any plausible path to that outcome, though.

I suspect that when it's all said and done, the American will have 3 teams in the Dance, but 4 is possible. Five… not so much.

There is always hope. Even in the darkest night when all seams lost, There is hope. Until the last breath is spent and the slightest flicker of light has waned, there is hope. The fight shall be waged until their last is given and all hope spent. We shall travel as far as our fortunes can carry us and only cease when death takes us. "RAWR!!!!" 04-cheers
(This post was last modified: 02-18-2015 10:03 AM by USFRamenu.)
02-18-2015 10:03 AM
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PT_american Offline
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Post: #109
RE: Latest Bracket Projections - AAC
(02-18-2015 10:03 AM)USFRamenu Wrote:  
(02-18-2015 09:55 AM)Native Georgian Wrote:  
(02-18-2015 09:51 AM)USFRamenu Wrote:  I'm hoping we get 5 teams in. Temple, Cinci, SMU, Tulsa (With a deep run in the Conference Tourney) and the yet un named winner of the Conference Tournament. That would be awesome. 04-cheers
It would be awesome, yes. Don't really see any plausible path to that outcome, though.

I suspect that when it's all said and done, the American will have 3 teams in the Dance, but 4 is possible. Five… not so much.

There is always hope. Even in the darkest night when all seams lost, There is hope. Until the last breath is spent and the slightest flicker of light has waned, there is hope. The fight shall be waged until their last is given and all hope spent. We shall travel as far as our fortunes can carry us and only cease when death takes us. "RAWR!!!!" 04-cheers

Yeah I agree I think 4 is more than likely the ceiling. Even if UConn were to have some magic in the conference tourney and win it all and get the auto bid that will likely mean one of our other bubble teams doesn't make it like Tulsa. I do think we have a good shot at 4 which is solid since we will likely have 2 in the NIT as well. If cinc can knock off Xavier then I see the new big east only getting 4 since most of the teams are piling on the losses against one another.
02-18-2015 11:07 AM
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uccheese Offline
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Post: #110
RE: Latest Bracket Projections - AAC
Everyone always rails about how these projections are awful and they can change, but they end up being pretty spot on. While we remember the few things that drastically changed the landscape each year, a huge percentage of the field stays status quo based on their resume to date. These guys are really good at this.
02-18-2015 11:21 AM
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JHG722 Offline
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RE: Latest Bracket Projections - AAC
That's because it's pretty easy to gauge where teams should be seeded. It's not like people are seeding Temple a 2 seed and Kentucky a 4 seed.
02-18-2015 12:27 PM
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sfink16 Offline
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Post: #112
RE: Latest Bracket Projections - AAC
(02-18-2015 09:48 AM)Carolina Stang Wrote:  Solution - bottom teams in this conference need better OOC scheduling.

Many of these teams will improve over time - I see UH with a great trajectory as well as some others. But please for the love of Kate Upton, schedule some meaningful OOC games. It will help everyone.

Been saying this for some time now. Take a look at a very bad (this year) George Mason team from the A-10. They are 7 and 16 against D1 competition and 3 and 9 inside the conference. Yet there 198 overall RPI beats 4 teams in our conference. Why? Because they schedule a 25 RPI OOC schedule, including the likes of UWV and Oklahoma from the B12 as well as #22 RPI Northern Iowa (who knew they'd be good this year I don't know).
02-18-2015 01:21 PM
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Stookey57 Offline
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Post: #113
Re: RE: Latest Bracket Projections - AAC
(02-18-2015 09:28 AM)Bearcats#1 Wrote:  I see SMU, Temple, and UC in. (Barring epic collapse)

Tulsa should make it but we'll see how they do in the final 5 or 6 games

UCONN is going to have to go on a streak incl in the AAC tourney...which they host sooooo

If tulsa wins out and goes to the semi finals of the aac tournament they should make it, also if cinci beats xav in a huge ooc game and goes fairly deep in the aac tourney, they should make the Big Dance
So theoretically Cincy Temple Tulsa SMu should get in to the Big Dance
02-18-2015 02:50 PM
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Stookey57 Offline
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RE: Latest Bracket Projections - AAC
Memphis is capable of making a deep run and getting in
02-18-2015 02:51 PM
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MemphisTigerFreak Offline
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Post: #115
RE: Latest Bracket Projections - AAC
(02-18-2015 02:51 PM)Stookey57 Wrote:  Memphis is capable of making a deep run and getting in

#snicker
02-18-2015 06:26 PM
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Bearcats#1 Offline
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RE: Latest Bracket Projections - AAC
UC is going on a losing binge....we will end up in the NIT. I'm calling it now.
02-18-2015 08:05 PM
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thefinglonger Offline
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RE: Latest Bracket Projections - AAC
Stop, there's plenty of time.
02-18-2015 08:23 PM
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leapinggazelle Offline
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RE: Latest Bracket Projections - AAC
I could see only Temple and SMU making the dance.
02-18-2015 11:39 PM
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laser101 Offline
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RE: Latest Bracket Projections - AAC
Cincy can't afford to lose another game, if they do they're done.
02-18-2015 11:44 PM
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T-Town Cane Offline
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RE: Latest Bracket Projections - AAC
(02-18-2015 02:50 PM)Stookey57 Wrote:  
(02-18-2015 09:28 AM)Bearcats#1 Wrote:  I see SMU, Temple, and UC in. (Barring epic collapse)

Tulsa should make it but we'll see how they do in the final 5 or 6 games

UCONN is going to have to go on a streak incl in the AAC tourney...which they host sooooo

If tulsa wins out and goes to the semi finals of the aac tournament they should make it, also if cinci beats xav in a huge ooc game and goes fairly deep in the aac tourney, they should make the Big Dance
So theoretically Cincy Temple Tulsa SMu should get in to the Big Dance

Tulsa can lose one maybe two more. If they lose @SMU and @Memphis and win their first game in the conference tourney they should be in. If they make the finals they're a lock.
02-19-2015 12:13 AM
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