Memphis is 67th in KenPom this morning, College RPI still projects a 19-12 regular season.

The win over Cincinnati gives Memphis the edge over the Bearcats in the standings - currently tied for third place with Temple and Tulane and 1.5 games out of first.

SMU holds sole possession of second place, but just suspended Frazier for the rest of the season.

Joe Lunardi has 3 AAC teams in:

http://espn.go.com/mens-college-basketba...ration/189

Jerry Palm has 3 ACC teams in:

http://www.cbssports.com/collegebasketball/bracketology

At this point in the season, it looks like only Tulsa is close to being a lock for the dance - if there even is such a thing as a lock in the ACC this season.

Memphis has 7 home games and 8 road games left.

Last night was a first step - there are many more steps to make it, though finishing 19-12 and getting to the AAC finals might be enough for an at large when looking at the overall landscape. Still, it wouldn't be a robbery if they didn't get in with that resume. Beating Gonzaga would help greatly.

And none of this matters if they win the ACC tournament.

Hard to see them getting a very good seed regardless of the path from here on out though.

88 in RPI.

Before the Tulane loss I thought the team had maybe four or five more losses in them to still possibly be an at large. That one changed things. To be an at large, meaning a loss in the conference tourney, I would say they only I have two additional losses to play with. That would give them 9 for the season which would be bubbly. Remember there would be a handful of nice wins thrown in there if that was the case. 24-9ish, home losses to Tulane and SFA, but matched with likely five or six top fifty wins?

Most likely, will lose enough additional games that winning the conference tourney will be a must. Hope not...get another win with UCF. 1-0.

(01-16-2015 11:14 AM)Mimi Wrote:  Before the Tulane loss I thought the team had maybe four or five more losses in them to still possibly be an at large. That one changed things. To be an at large, meaning a loss in the conference tourney, I would say they only I have two additional losses to play with. That would give them 9 for the season which would be bubbly. Remember there would be a handful of nice wins thrown in there if that was the case. 24-9ish, home losses to Tulane and SFA, but matched with likely five or six top fifty wins?

Most likely, will lose enough additional games that winning the conference tourney will be a must. Hope not...get another win with UCF. 1-0.

Tall order, but beating Gonzaga would all but erase the bad losses.

(01-16-2015 11:09 AM)HoopDreams Wrote:  Memphis is 67th in KenPom this morning, College RPI still projects a 19-12 regular season.

The win over Cincinnati gives Memphis the edge over the Bearcats in the standings - currently tied for third place with Temple and Tulane and 1.5 games out of first.

SMU holds sole possession of second place, but just suspended Frazier for the rest of the season.

Joe Lunardi has 3 AAC teams in:

http://espn.go.com/mens-college-basketba...ration/189

Jerry Palm has 3 ACC teams in:

http://www.cbssports.com/collegebasketball/bracketology

At this point in the season, it looks like only Tulsa is close to being a lock for the dance - if there even is such a thing as a lock in the ACC this season.

Memphis has 7 home games and 8 road games left.

Last night was a first step - there are many more steps to make it, though finishing 19-12 and getting to the AAC finals might be enough for an at large when looking at the overall landscape. Still, it wouldn't be a robbery if they didn't get in with that resume. Beating Gonzaga would help greatly.

And none of this matters if they win the ACC tournament.

Hard to see them getting a very good seed regardless of the path from here on out though.

Let's pump the brakes some. Let's see if the team can put together a few more wins before thinking about the bubble.

(01-16-2015 11:18 AM)3601 Wrote:  

(01-16-2015 11:09 AM)HoopDreams Wrote:  Memphis is 67th in KenPom this morning, College RPI still projects a 19-12 regular season.

The win over Cincinnati gives Memphis the edge over the Bearcats in the standings - currently tied for third place with Temple and Tulane and 1.5 games out of first.

SMU holds sole possession of second place, but just suspended Frazier for the rest of the season.

Joe Lunardi has 3 AAC teams in:

http://espn.go.com/mens-college-basketba...ration/189

Jerry Palm has 3 ACC teams in:

http://www.cbssports.com/collegebasketball/bracketology

At this point in the season, it looks like only Tulsa is close to being a lock for the dance - if there even is such a thing as a lock in the ACC this season.

Memphis has 7 home games and 8 road games left.

Last night was a first step - there are many more steps to make it, though finishing 19-12 and getting to the AAC finals might be enough for an at large when looking at the overall landscape. Still, it wouldn't be a robbery if they didn't get in with that resume. Beating Gonzaga would help greatly.

And none of this matters if they win the ACC tournament.

Hard to see them getting a very good seed regardless of the path from here on out though.

Actually there was discussion last night on the board about them not even having to make the AAC finals to get an at-large - without a win at Gonzaga, not making the AAC finals probably keeps them out of the tourney.

Carry on.

(01-16-2015 11:19 AM)tigerlands Wrote:  Let's pump the brakes some. Let's see if the team can put together a few more wins before thinking about the bubble.

Just looking at projections. With SMU's issues, that may provide yet another unseen opening to climb.

They aren't on the bubble and won't be without either a signature win at Gonzaga or finishing with at least 19 regular season wins and making the ACC tournament final.

Getting in the 40's in RPI likely gets a team in bubble consideration.

rpiforecast.com has an "rpi generator" in which you can plug in future results to see what the projected RPI will be. (http://www.rpiforecast.com/wizard/Memphis.html)

Memphis has 7 home games left and 8 road games. Notable home games vs. UConn, Temple, and Tulsa. and Road games still include Gonzaga, Tulsa, UConn, Temple and Cinci.

Projected record/ projected RPI/ % of achieving that record
25-6 24.0 0.01%
24-7 25.8 0.15%
23-8 31.6 1.34%
22-9 39.2 5.78%
21-10 47.8 13.09%
20-11 57.8 22.13%
19-12 69.7 24.23%
18-13 83.6 18.11%
17-14 98.4 10.05%
16-15 114.0 4.14%
15-16 129.3 0.84%
14-17 145.2 0.11%
12-19 186.0 0.01%

(01-16-2015 11:23 AM)salukiblue Wrote:  Getting in the 40's in RPI likely gets a team in bubble consideration.

rpiforecast.com has an "rpi generator" in which you can plug in future results to see what the projected RPI will be. (http://www.rpiforecast.com/wizard/Memphis.html)

Memphis has 7 home games left and 8 road games. Notable home games vs. UConn, Temple, and Tulsa. and Road games still include Gonzaga, Tulsa, UConn, Temple and Cinci.

Projected record/ projected RPI/ % of achieving that record
25-6 24.0 0.01%
24-7 25.8 0.15%
23-8 31.6 1.34%
22-9 39.2 5.78%
21-10 47.8 13.09%
20-11 57.8 22.13%
19-12 69.7 24.23%
18-13 83.6 18.11%
17-14 98.4 10.05%
16-15 114.0 4.14%
15-16 129.3 0.84%
14-17 145.2 0.11%
12-19 186.0 0.01%

So, probably either need to just win the ACC tournament.

Or at least win 19, with a Gonzaga win, and make the tournament finals?

HoopDreams, how many games have you watched this season? Be honest.

(01-16-2015 11:25 AM)HoopDreams Wrote:  

(01-16-2015 11:23 AM)salukiblue Wrote:  Getting in the 40's in RPI likely gets a team in bubble consideration.

rpiforecast.com has an "rpi generator" in which you can plug in future results to see what the projected RPI will be. (http://www.rpiforecast.com/wizard/Memphis.html)

Memphis has 7 home games left and 8 road games. Notable home games vs. UConn, Temple, and Tulsa. and Road games still include Gonzaga, Tulsa, UConn, Temple and Cinci.

Projected record/ projected RPI/ % of achieving that record
25-6 24.0 0.01%
24-7 25.8 0.15%
23-8 31.6 1.34%
22-9 39.2 5.78%
21-10 47.8 13.09%
20-11 57.8 22.13%
19-12 69.7 24.23%
18-13 83.6 18.11%
17-14 98.4 10.05%
16-15 114.0 4.14%
15-16 129.3 0.84%
14-17 145.2 0.11%
12-19 186.0 0.01%

So, probably either need to just win the ACC tournament.

Or at least win 19, with a Gonzaga win, and make the tournament finals?

I can see 21-10

(01-16-2015 11:25 AM)HoopDreams Wrote:  

(01-16-2015 11:23 AM)salukiblue Wrote:  Getting in the 40's in RPI likely gets a team in bubble consideration.

rpiforecast.com has an "rpi generator" in which you can plug in future results to see what the projected RPI will be. (http://www.rpiforecast.com/wizard/Memphis.html)

Memphis has 7 home games left and 8 road games. Notable home games vs. UConn, Temple, and Tulsa. and Road games still include Gonzaga, Tulsa, UConn, Temple and Cinci.

Projected record/ projected RPI/ % of achieving that record
25-6 24.0 0.01%
24-7 25.8 0.15%
23-8 31.6 1.34%
22-9 39.2 5.78%
21-10 47.8 13.09%
20-11 57.8 22.13%
19-12 69.7 24.23%
18-13 83.6 18.11%
17-14 98.4 10.05%
16-15 114.0 4.14%
15-16 129.3 0.84%
14-17 145.2 0.11%
12-19 186.0 0.01%

So, probably either need to just win the ACC tournament.

Or at least win 19, with a Gonzaga win, and make the tournament finals?

Even 19, with a Gonzaga win puts the RPI at 69. I added AAC wins vs. UCF and Temple and a loss to UConn in the final. That put Memphis at 21-13 with an RPI of 57.

Basically win out or win the ACC tourney then.

(01-16-2015 11:43 AM)HoopDreams Wrote:  Basically win out or win the ACC tourney then.

22-9 with a trip to the AAC final may likely be enough, but that means going 6-3 vs. @Gonz, SMU, @Cinci, UConn (2), Tulsa (2) and Temple (2) in the regular season with five of those games on the road.

An NCAA at large is incredibly unlikely. A win at Gonzaga, along with winning at least all but 2 additional games would do it. A loss to Gonzaga, and winning out otherwise, or maybe losing one and getting to the conference title game would have to happen.

Face it, without Cronin, Cincy is a team that will drop in the RPI. By season end, they probably wont be a top 50 RPI team. We have a weak conference, no real quality wins, and already some bad losses. There is less than a 1% chance for an at large. However, with improvement, we are playing closer to a level to where we can win the league tournament and remove all doubt.

I don't have a clue to what the Tiger's record will be at the end of the season, but it seems they're playing better and have developed a fix for their point guard play. Depth seems not to be a problem this year. Intensity, rebounding and 3-point shooting still needs to be improved. Memphis closes the schedule with road games against UConn and Cincinnati. Overall, the conference is still sorting itself out. SMU is facing some adversity that might cost that team some victories. UConn hasn't found its groove. The team to beat for the championship might be among the teams that now stand at 3-2 in conference play -- Memphis, Tulane and Temple. But who knows for sure. Anything can happen. Anyone who says otherwise or that they can predict a season-ending record is probably just guessing or hoping.

(01-16-2015 11:51 AM)salukiblue Wrote:  

(01-16-2015 11:43 AM)HoopDreams Wrote:  Basically win out or win the ACC tourney then.

22-9 with a trip to the AAC final may likely be enough, but that means going 6-3 vs. @Gonz, SMU, @Cinci, UConn (2), Tulsa (2) and Temple (2) in the regular season with five of those games on the road.

I think with the way the league is going it's possible, not probable but the tigers do have the talent to win the conference now that the PG situation is getting settle, which was the main problem to the teams early struggles

(01-16-2015 11:51 AM)salukiblue Wrote:  

(01-16-2015 11:43 AM)HoopDreams Wrote:  Basically win out or win the ACC tourney then.

22-9 with a trip to the AAC final may likely be enough, but that means going 6-3 vs. @Gonz, SMU, @Cinci, UConn (2), Tulsa (2) and Temple (2) in the regular season with five of those games on the road.

Pastner is a terrible coach. Forgo the blue Koolaid, please. We will be fortunate to make the NIT.